MARKET UPDATE & OUTLOOK
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Bursa saham Jepang merosot dari area resistance 20000 dengan volume perdagangan yang kecil pada
hari Rabu, tekanan indeks Nikkei oleh aksi investor yang cenderung menghindari saham-saham cyclical
sebelum big event pekan ini dimana akan diumumkan hasil keputusan sidang ECB serta rilis data
pekerjaan AS. Indeks Nikkei turun 0.4% di level 19938.13. Indeks futures Nikkei (SSIcm1) masih
terkonsolidasi dibawah kisaran resistance psikologis 20000, dengan area support masih bertahan pada
kisaran 19500-19600.
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Bursa Korea Selatan lanjutkan penurunan sesi sebelumnya dengan investor yang cenderung defensive
menyusul data ekspornya yang melemah dan aksi jual investor asing yang besar. Indeks KOSPI (KS200)
menguat 0.8% di level 246.60. Fluktuasi indeks futures KOSPI (KSc1) masih tertahan dalam kisaran
242-250!
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Bursa China berhasil menguat dan mencatatkan persantase penguatan harian dalam kurun waktu
sebulan pada hari Rabu. Penguatan indeks Shanghai didorong oleh aksi switching investor dari
saham-saham small caps ke saham-saham-saham-saham blue chips serta spekulasi tambahan stimulus dari pemerintah yang
berdampak pada sektor properti. Dengan begitu, indeks Komposit Shanghai menguat 2.3% di level
3536.91.
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Bursa saham Hong Kong relatif ikuti pergerakan indeks Shanghai yang pada penutupan perdagangan
Rabu berhasil menguat 0.4% di level 22479.69. Penguatan bursa Hong Kong mayoritas didorong oleh
sektor-sektor finansial dan properti. Fluktuasi indeks futures Hang Seng masih bertahan di atas zona
22000 support pada reaction low di level 21856 masih kuat terjaga.
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AS/Global Market – Dolar menguat pada hari Rabu dan bursa melemah di Wall Street, setelah Ketua Fed
Janet Yellen memberikan sinyal kesiapannya untuk menaikkan suku bunga dan data AS mengindikasikan
solidnya pasar tenaga kerja. Yellen mengatakan dia "berharap" bahwa kenaikan suku bunga AS akan
dilihat sebagai bukti pemulihan ekonomi dari resesi, meskipun ia belum memberikan jaminan kepastian
apakah kenaikan suku bunga akan terjadi pada pertemuan kebijakan terakhir Fed tahun ini pada 15-16
Desember. Yellen selanjut akan memberikan testimoninya di depan Joint Economic Committee mengenai
prospek ekonomi nanti malam. ADP National Employment Report menunjukkan terjadi penambahan
pekerjaan sektor swasta sebanyak 217.000 bulan lalu sementara produktifitas diluar sektor pertanian
juga menunjukkan peningkatan lebih tajam dari perkiraan di kuartal ketiga. Menguatnya dolar telah
menekan komoditas, dengan minyak terkoreksi menyusul produsen minyak terbesar dunia tidak
memberikan sinyal akan pangkas produksi minyaknya pada sidangnya pekan ini. Harga emas juga
melemah kemarin. Pasar juga akan mencermati sidang ECB sore nanti yang diperkirakan akan
melanjutkan program pelonggaran moneternya. Dow Jones kembali terkoreksi pasca gagal bertahan di
atas area 17800. Area support jangka pendek berada di sekitar 17650 – 17450.
DATE WIB CTY INDICATORS PER ACTUAL FORECAST LAST REV
MON/30-Nov 04.00 KR BoK Manufacturing BSI Dec 72 N/A IND 72
06.00 KR Industrial Output YY Oct 1.5 1.7 % 2.4 2.8
06.00 KR Service Sector Output Growth Oct 0.2 N/A % 1.2 1.1
06.00 KR Industrial Output Growth Oct -1.4 0.2 % 1.9 2.2
06.30 AU TD-MI Inflation Gauge Nov 0.1 N/A % 0.0
06.50 JP Industrial Output Prelim Oct 1.4 1.9 % 1.1
06.50 JP IP Forecast 1 Mth Ahead Oct 0.2 N/A % 4.1
06.50 JP IP Forecast 2 Mth Ahead Oct -0.9 N/A % -0.3
06.50 JP Retail Sales YY Oct 1.8 0.8 % -0.2
07.30 AU Business Inventories Q3 0.1 0.1 % 0.0 0.2
07.30 AU Gross Company Profits Q3 1.3 1.0 % -1.9 -0.5
07.30 AU Company Profits Pre-Tax Q3 -11.2 N/A % -11.3 -12.7
07.30 AU Private Sector Credit Oct 0.7 0.6 % 0.8
07.30 AU Housing Credit Oct 0.6 N/A % 0.6
12.00 JP Construction Orders YY Oct -25.2 N/A % 6.7
12.00 JP Housing Starts YY Oct -2.5 2.9 % 2.6
15.30 HK Money Supply M3 Oct 10.2 N/A % 10.10
15.30 HK Retail Sales YY Oct -3.0 N/A % -6.4
21.45 US Chicago PMI Nov 48.7 54.0 IND 56.2
22.00 US Pending Homes Index Oct 107.7 N/A IND 106.8 107.5
22.00 US Pending Sales Chg MM Oct 0.2 1.0 % -2.3 -1.6
22.30 US Dallas Fed Mfg Bus Idx Nov -4.9 N/A IND -12.70
TUE/01-Dec 05.30 AU AIG Manufacturing Index Nov 52.5 N/A IND 50.2
06.00 KR CPI Growth Nov -0.1 -0.2 % 0.0
06.00 KR CPI Growth YY Nov 1.0 0.9 % 0.9
06.50 JP Business Capex (MOF) YY Q3 11.2 2.3 % 5.6
07.00 KR Export Growth Prelim Nov -4.7 -8.3 % -15.9
07.00 KR Import Growth Prelim Nov -17.6 -12.8 % -16.6
07.00 KR Trade Balance Prelim Nov 10.4 N/A B 6.70
07.30 AU Building Approvals Oct 3.9 -2.3 % 2.2 2.3
07.30 AU Private House Approvals Oct -2.1 N/A % -1.9 -2.2
07.30 AU Current Account Deficit Q3 18.1 16.50 B 19.00 20.5
07.30 AU Net Exports Contribution Q3 1.5 1.00 % -0.60
08.00 CN NBS Non-Mfg PMI Nov 53.6 N/A IND 53.10
08.00 CN NBS Manufacturing PMI Nov 49.6 49.8 IND 49.8
08.20 KR Nikkei Markit Mfg PMI Nov 49.1 N/A IND 49.1
08.35 JP Nikkei Mfg PMI Nov 52.6 52.8 IND 52.8
08.45 CN Caixin Mfg PMI Final Nov 48.6 48.3 IND 48.3
10.30 AU RBA Cash Rate Dec 2.00 2.00 % 2.00
10.30 AU RBA Rate Statement
21.45 US Markit Mfg PMI Final Nov 52.8 N/A IND 52.6
22.00 US Construction Spending MM Oct 1.0 0.5 % 0.6
22.00 US ISM Manufacturing PMI Nov 48.6 50.5 IND 50.1
22.00 US ISM Mfg Prices Paid Nov 35.5 40.0 IND 39.0
22.00 US ISM Manuf Employment Idx Nov 51.3 48.4 IND 47.6
22.00 US ISM Manuf New Orders Idx Nov 48.9 N/A IND 52.9
22.30 US Texas Serv Sect Outlook Nov 3.6 N/A IND 5.6
22.30 US Dallas Fed Services Rev. Nov 10.3 N/A IND 7.6
00.45 US FOMC Evans Speaks
WED/02-Dec 06.00 KR Current Account Balance Oct 7.19 N/A B 9.76 06.30 AU RBA Gov Stevens Speaks
07.30 AU GDP QQ Q3 0.9 0.7 % 0.2 0.3
(Source: Reuters-FXstreet-DailyFX- Research:@nikolasprasetia-@her1en)
07.30 AU GDP Final Consumption Q3 0.7 N/A % 0.9 0.8
07.30 AU GDP Capital Expenditure Q3 -4.0 N/A % 0.4 -0.2
07.30 AU GDP Chain Price Index Q3 -0.2 N/A % -0.5
20.10 US FOMC Lockhart Speaks
20.15 US ADP National Employment Nov 217.0 190 K 182 196
20.30 US Fed Chair Yellen Speaks
20.30 US Labor Costs Revised Q3 1.8 1.1 % 1.4
20.30 US Productivity Revised Q3 2.2 2.2 % 1.6
21.45 US ISM NY Biz Conditions Nov 60.7 N/A IND 65.8
21.45 US ISM-New York Index Nov 710.6 N/A IND 705.3
22.30 US EIA Crude Oil Inventories W/E 1.177 -0.471 M 0.961
00.25 US Fed Chair Yellen Speaks 03.40 US FOMC Williams Speaks
THU/03-Dec 04.00 KR FX Reserves Nov 368.46 N/A B 369.60
05.30 AU AIG Service Index Nov 48.2 N/A IND 48.9
06.00 KR GDP Growth MM Revised Q3 N/A % 1.2
06.00 KR GDP Growth YY Revised Q3 N/A % 2.6
07.00 AU HIA New Home Sales M/M Oct N/A % -4.0
07.30 AU Trade Balance G&S (A$) Oct -2665 M -2317
07.30 AU Goods/Service Imports Oct N/A % 2.0
07.30 AU Goods/Service Exports Oct N/A % 3.0
08.45 CN Caixin Services PMI Nov N/A IND 52.0
09.30 HK Nikkei PMI Nov N/A IND 46.6
19.30 US Challenger Layoffs Nov N/A K 50.504
20.30 US ECB Press Conference
20.30 US Initial Jobless Claims W/E 268 K 260
20.30 US Jobless Claims 4-Week Avg. W/E N/A K 271.00
20.30 US Continued Jobless Claims W/E 2.187 M 2.207
21.45 US Markit Comp Final PMI Nov N/A IND 56.1
21.45 US Markit Svcs PMI Final Nov N/A IND 56.5
22.00 US Fed Chair Yellen Testifies
22.00 US Durable Goods R MM Oct N/A % 3.0
22.00 US Factory Orders MM Oct 1.4 % -1.0
22.00 US Nondef Cap Ex-Air R MM Oct N/A % 1.3
22.00 US ISM N-Mfg PMI Nov 58.0 IND 59.1
22.00 US ISM N-Mfg Bus Act Nov 60.2 IND 63.0
22.00 US ISM N-Mfg Employment Idx Nov N/A IND 59.2
22.00 US ISM N-Mfg New Orders Idx Nov N/A IND 62.0
22.00 US ISM N-MFg Prices Paid Index Nov N/A IND 49.1
01.10 US FOMC Fischer Speaks
FRI/04-Dec 07.30 AU Retail Sales MM Oct 0.5 % 0.4
08.30 JP Overtime Pay Oct N/A % 1.4
12.00 JP Consumer Confid. Index Nov 41.8 IND 41.5
All Day OPEC Meetings
20.30 US Non-Farm Payrolls Nov 200 K 271
20.30 US Private Payrolls Nov 190 K 268
20.30 US Manufacturing Payrolls Nov -1 K 0
20.30 US Government Payrolls Nov N/A K 3
20.30 US Unemployment Rate SA Nov 5.0 % 5.0
20.30 US Average Earnings MM Nov 0.2 % 0.4
20.30 US Average Workweek Hrs Nov 34.5 H 34.5
20.30 US Labor Force Partic Nov N/A % 62.4
20.30 US U6 Underemployment Nov N/A % 9.8
ASIA AND GLOBAL MARKET SPOT PRICE 2015
HIGH / LOW .N225 .KS200 .HSI .DJI /.SPX /.SSEC
RECORD HIGH 38915.87 (29/Dec/89) 295.51 (03/May/11) 31958.41 (30/Oct/07) 18351.36 (19/May/2015) 2134.72 (20/May/2015) 6124.04400 (16/Oct./07) 2014 HIGH 18030.83 272.83 25362.98 18103.45 2093.55 3239.35660 2015 HIGH 20952.71 (24/Jun/2015) 275.11 (24/Apr/2015) 28588.52 (27/Apr/2015) 18351.36 (19/May/2015) 2134.72 (20/May/2015) 5178.19100 (12/Jun/2015) 2015 LOW 16592.57 (16/Jan/2015) 217.52 (24/Aug/2015) 20368.12 (29/Sep/2015) 15370.33 (24/Aug/2015) 1867.01 (24/Aug/2015) 2850.71350 (26/Aug/2015) 2014 LOW 13885.11 239.43 21137.61 15340.69 1737.92 1974.38240 RECORD LOW 85.25 (06/Jul/50) 31.96 (16/Jun/98) 58.61 (31/Aug/67) 388.20 (17/Jan/55) 132.93 (23/Nov./82) 325.92200 (29/Jul/94)
Closing Prices – 02 Desember 2015
CLOSE CHANGE CLOSE CHANGE
.DJI 17729.68 158.67 / 0.89% .N225 19938.13 74.27/0.37%
/.SPX 2079.51 23.12 / 1.10% .KS200 246.60 2.10/0.84%
/.IXIC 5123.222 33.084 / 0.64% .HSI 22479.69 98.34/0.44%
JPY= 123.24 0.39 / 0.32% /.SSEC 3536.80060 80.49210/2.33%
SSIamZ5 (Nikkei December Futures)
Last Trading Date: 10 Dec. 2015
INTRADAY CHART
DAILY CHART
Reuters Graphic Reuters Graphic
DAILY CHART INDICATORS
RSI-14 : 63.68 Mom-14 : EMA 20 : 19689 WMA 55 : 19266 Daily Trend :
DATE OPEN HIGH LOW RANGE CLOSE SETTLE CHANGE % CHANGE VOLUME
02 Dec SSIpmZ5 19965 20000 19950 50 19980 --- 20 0.10 13899 02 Dec SSIamZ5 19975 19995 19925 70 19960 19960 50 2.33 37175 01 Dec SSIpmZ5 19995 20015 19955 60 19975 --- 35 0.17 20213 01 Dec SSIamZ5 19835 20035 19810 225 20010 20010 240 1.21 57989 30 Nov SSIpmZ5 19775 19890 19730 160 19785 --- 15 0.08 17140 30 Nov SSIamZ5 19895 19895 19710 185 19770 19770 80 0.40 48024 27 Nov SSIpmZ5 19825 19895 19790 105 19870 --- 20 0.10 10901 27 Nov SSIamZ5 20000 20010 19835 175 19850 19850 90 0.45 37527 26 Nov SSIpmZ5 19955 20020 19925 95 20005 --- 65 0.33 10978 26 Nov SSIamZ5 19935 20000 19925 75 19940 19940 90 2.95 37852
WEEKLY DECEMBER NOVEMBER 2015
HIGH LOW HIGH LOW HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
20035 19710 20035 19810 20035 18625 20950 16530 (01/Dec) (29/Nov) (01/Dec) (01/Dec) (23/Nov) (02/Nov) (24/Jun) (14/Jan)
ANALYSIS & RECOMMENDATION
Tertahan di bawah level 20000 dengan indeks bergerak di area rectangle 19710 – 20050. Kondisi RSI yang berada di sekitar zona overbought berpotensi picu reversal selama area 20000 – 20050 efektif. (Research – @ErwinRiset)
RESISTANCE 20680 High 18/Aug/2015 20565 High 19/Aug/2015 20340 High 20/Aug/2015 20070 High 21/Aug/2015 SUPPORT 19710 Horizontal support
19630 Pivot line on 1-H chart
19495 Reaction low on 1-H chart
19235 Reaction low on 1-D chart
RECOMMENDATION BUY 19930 SELL ---- STOP LOSS 19830 TARGET 20070 20210
KSZ5 (Kospi December Futures)
Exp. Date: 10 Dec. 2015
INTRADAY CHART
DAILY CHART
Reuters Graphic Reuters Graphic
DAILY CHART INDICATORS
RSI-14 : 49.26 Mom-14 : EMA 20 : 246.90 WMA 55 : 246.83 Daily Trend :
DATE OPEN HIGH LOW RANGE CLOSE SETTLE CHANGE %
CHANGE VOLUME 02 Dec 248.50 248.75 246.80 1.95 246.80 246.80 1.70 0.68 107194 01 Dec 245.60 249.00 245.55 3.45 248.50 248.50 3.65 1.49 151842 30 Nov 248.70 248.80 243.85 4.95 244.85 244.85 4.85 1.94 178539 27 Nov 250.50 250.90 249.70 1.20 249.70 249.70 0.60 0.24 73669 26 Nov 247.60 250.60 247.50 3.10 250.30 250.30 2.95 2.95 101212
WEEKLY DECEMBER NOVEMBER 2015
HIGH LOW HIGH LOW HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
249.00 243.85 249.00 245.55 254.30 239.55 276.25 216.90 (01/Dec) (30/Nov) (01/Dec) (01/Dec) (04/Nov) (16/Nov) (24/Apr) (24/Aug)
ANALYSIS & RECOMMENDATION
Area pivot line di 248.80 (1-H chart) efektif meredam rebound, memicu reversal ke area
support 243.85.
Waspadai area trendline support di sekitar 245 pada 1-D chart untuk kemungkinan koreksi terbatas. (Research – @ErwinRiset)
RESISTANCE
255.90 High 03/Jul/2015
254.30 Peak level on 1-D chart
252.90 Reaction high on 1-H chart
250.90 Reaction high on 1-H chart
SUPPORT
243.85 Reaction low on 1-H chart
241.10 Reaction low on 1-H chart
239.55 Bottom level
237.20 Reaction low on 1-H chart
RECOMMENDATION BUY ---- SELL 247.50 STOP LOSS 248.50 TARGET 245.75 244.00
HSIZ5 (Hang Seng December Futures)
Exp. Date: 30 Dec. 2015
INTRADAY CHART
DAILY CHART
Reuters Graphic Reuters Graphic
DAILY CHART INDICATORS
RSI-14 : 51.80 Mom-14 : EMA 20 : 22446 WMA 55 : 22491 Daily Trend :
DATE OPEN HIGH LOW RANGE CLOSE SETTLE CHANGE %
CHANGE VOLUME 02 Dec (HSIZ5) 22500 22576 22362 214 22483 22483 95 0.42 121230 01 Dec (HSIZ5) 22204 22489 22098 391 22388 22388 479 2.19 134485 30 Nov (HSIZ5) 22055 22167 21856 311 21909 21909 90 0.41 132076 27 Nov (HSIZ5) 22588 22588 21970 618 21999 21999 528 2.34 127536 27 Nov 22574 22592 22190 402 22212 22211 313 1.39 14234 26 Nov 22613 23055 22435 620 22525 22525 31 0.14 107246
WEEKLY NOVEMBER OCTOBER 2015
HIGH LOW HIGH LOW HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
22576 21856 22576 22098 23419 21105 28621 20366 (02/Dec) (30/Nov) (02/Dec) (01/Dec) (26/Oct) (02/Oct) (27/Apr) (08/Sept)
ANALYSIS & RECOMMENDATION
Reli tertahan di sekitar 22500, dan jika ini berlanjut, maka koreksi berkembang untuk uji kembali area 22000 – 21856.
Sedangkan jika area 22500 – 22600 dapat dipecahkan, maka reli berkembang untuk uji area
upperline dari formasi symmetrical triangle pada 1-D
chart di sekitar 22800. (Research – @ErwinRiset)
RESISTANCE
23538 Peak level
23347 Reaction high on 1-H chart
23055 Horizontal resistance on 1-H chart
22658 Reaction high on 1-H chart
SUPPORT
21856 Low 30/Nov/2015
21700 Horizontal support on 1-H chart
21239 Reaction low on 1-H chart
20821 Low 02/Oct/2015 RECOMMENDATION BUY ---- SELL 22495 STOP LOSS 22595 TARGET 22220 22065
