Real GDP (annual-%chg)
4.88
5.02
5.10
5.30
CPI (annual YoY%)
3.35
3.02
3.61
3.70
Current Account (% of GDP)
(2.00)
(1.80)
(1.70)
(2.20)
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)
(1.93)
(2.39)
(2.40)
(2.50)
Rev Repo rate (year-end %)
7.50*
4.75
4.25
4.25
IDR/USD (year-end)
13,788
13,473
13,433
13,576
*older benchmark rate
Source: BloombergDEPOSIT FACILITY RATE
3.50
3.50
-
-JIBOR O/N
4.01
4.03
0.03
0.11
JIBOR 1M IDR
6.07
6.06
1.04
0.57
LIBOR 1M USD
1.94
1.94
0.04
0.37
IDR/USD
14,097
14,037
2.30
4.00
JPY/USD
110.40
110.35
3.06
(2.03)
Source: Bloomberg
FR0048
4.26
4.84
101.31
100.82
FR0053
6.71
6.77
104.15
104.18
FR0063
6.73
6.78
95.17
94.46
FR0040
7.19
7.23
121.15
121.58
FR0064
7.04
7.13
92.89
91.53
FR0065
7.50
7.62
91.19
91.81
FR0075
7.63
7.70
97.95
98.40
FR0067
7.64
7.64
112.42
111.50
Source: Bloomberg
Indon 21
3.75
3.71
0.46
1.04
Indon 26
4.48
4.39
0.47
0.99
Indon 35
5.22
5.13
0.40
0.80
Source: Bloomberg
United States 10-y
3.10
3.07
0.27
0.69
Euro Zone 10-y
0.61
0.65
0.08
0.18
Japan 10-y
0.06
0.06
0.02
0.01
China 10-y
3.72
3.72
0.04
(0.19)
India 10-y
7.90
7.91
0.41
0.58
Malaysia 10-y
4.20
4.16
0.19
0.29
Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg
Indonesia (IDX)
5,841.46
5,838.12
(7.08)
(8.09)
Malaysia (KLCI)
1,858.26
1,848.20
(1.09)
3.42
Philippines (PCOMP)
7,869.56
7,885.97
(0.01)
(8.05)
Singapore (STI)
3,533.05
3,540.23
1.03
3.82
China (SHCOMP)
3,169.57
3,192.12
1.89
(4.16)
Hongkong (Hang Seng)
31,110.20
31,152.03
2.62
3.98
Japan (Nikkei)
22,717.23
22,818.02
4.04
(0.21)
USA (Dow Jones)
24,768.93
24,706.41
0.80
0.20
Brent Crude oil (USD/b)
71.49
71.31
7.96
18.32
Gold (USD/toz)
1,290.71
1,290.52
(4.10)
(0.95)
Nickel (USD/mt)
14,475.00
14,425.00
0.98
13.44
Palm oil (MYR/mt)
2,414.00
2,432.00
1.90
(3.56)
Sugar (USD/lb)
11.61
11.52
(4.60)
(22.81)
Tin (USD/mt)
20,725.00
20,875.00
(1.43)
3.50
Wheat (USD/bsh)
494.25
493.50
3.18
9.05
Source: Bloomberg
Source: Bloomberg
Page 1 of 3
MoM (%)
YTD (%)
INDICES & COMMODITIES
Last
-1 Day
MoM (%)
YTD (%)
USD INDON BONDS
Last
-1 Day
MoM (%)
YTD (%)
2018F
MONEY MARKET
Last
-1 Day
MoM (%)
YTD (%)
GOVT'S BENCHMARKS (%)
-1 Day yield Last yield
Last price
Valuation
HEADLINE NEWS
ECONOMIC INDICATORS
2015A
2016A
2017A
5-YEAR INDONESIA CREDIT DEFAULT SWAP
INDONESIAN GOVERNMENT BOND YIELD - GENERIC
OVERSEAS YIELDS
Last
-1 Day
17 MAY 2018
BCAS
Obligasi
Bank Indonesia akan menggelar rapat bulanan Dewan Gubernur hari kedua dan akan
mengumumkan suku bunga kebijakannya pada hari ini. (Bank Indonesia)
Comment:
Bank Indonesia akhirnya mengirim sinyal ke kuat ke pasar bahwa mereka akan
menaikan suku bunga acuan. Bank sentral beranggapan bahwa melemahnya nilai tukar Rupiah
dalam beberapa pekan terakhir sudah tidak lagi sejalan dengan kondisi fundamental ekonomi
Indonesia saat ini. Terkait hal tersebut, dan melihat masih besarnya potensi tantangan dari
kondisi global yang dapat berpotensi menganggu kesinambungan pertumbuhan ekonomi
Indonesia dalam jangka menengah panjang, Bank Indonesia akan secara tegas dan konsisten
mengarahkan dan memprioritaskan kebijakan moneter pada terciptanya stabilitas dengan
menyesuaikan suku bunga kebijakan (7 Days Reverse Repo). Kami memprediksikan bank sentral
untuk menaikan reverse repo rate-nya sebanyak 25bps ke level 4,50%.
BCAS Insight
Indonesia Fixed Income Market Daily Digest
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
7.0
7.5
May-17
Jul-17
Sep-17
Nov-17
Jan-18
Mar-18
%
Yield 1Y
Yield 5Y
Yield 10Y
75
85
95
105
115
125
135
145
FR32
15.000%
101.762
3.922%
101.348
6.327%
Rich
amount (IDRbn)
Yield curve
Trading ideas
RESEARCH DIVISION
[email protected]
Arga Samudro
FI Strategist & Macroeconomist, Ext: 181
[email protected]
Mindo Leona Christina
Acting Head of Debt Capital Market, Ext: 126
[email protected]
Agus Budiarto
Fery HB Siahaan
Debt Capital Market Sales, Ext: 155
Debt Capital Market Sales, Ext: 156
[email protected]
[email protected]
Syafruddin Syahrul
Debt Capital Market Sales, Ext: 138
[email protected]
Page 3 of 3
17 MAY 2018
BCAS Insight
Indonesia Fixed Income Market Daily Digest
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