Kuliah Umum Teunis Van Rheenen, Ph.D (Internasional Food Policy Research Institute-IFPRI)

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Food Security Portal:

Enhancing Food Security through Information Systems

Food Security Portal:

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Food for Thought

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Country Pages

Detailed price data, poverty statistics, and food security

information for 21 countries

Country Pages

Detailed price data, poverty statistics, and food security

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Commodity Data

Latest global and country-level prices for

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Policy Analysis Tools

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Food for Thought

Blog featuring the latest food security research

by leading international researchers, as

well as food security and price reports and

alerts.

Food for Thought

Blog featuring the latest food security research

by leading international researchers, as

well as food security and price reports and

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Data API

Downloadable datasets for global and country-level price,

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Global Food Security Challenges and

Opportunities

INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE

Teunis van Rheenen

Coordinator for Partnerships

International Food Policy Research Institute

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IFPRI

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IFPRI s VISION

A world free of

hunger and

malnutrition

IFPRI s MISSION

To provide policy

solutions that

reduce poverty

and end hunger

and malnutrition

IFPRI s VISION

A world free of

hunger and

malnutrition

IFPRI s MISSION

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Cornerstones of IFPRI's work

Capacity

Strengthening Communications

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Major research themes

 Outlooks and global change  Globalization, trade, and

markets

 Natural resources policies  Risks and emergencies

 Governance and policy

processes

 Development strategies

 Poverty, nutrition, and social

protection

 Diet, health, and food safety  Science and technology

 Outlooks and global change  Globalization, trade, and

markets

 Natural resources policies  Risks and emergencies

 Governance and policy

processes

 Development strategies

 Poverty, nutrition, and social

protection

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IFPRI s research and outreach on a global level and in Africa, Asia, Latin America, and the Middle East

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t

to Fo

o o y

Research Institute

ts Trade, and Institutions

Maximo Torero

Environment and Production Technology

Mark Rosegrant

Director General

Shenggen Fan

Development Strategy and Governance

Paul Dorosh

Africa

West and Central Africa Office (WCAO)

Ousmane Badiane

Eastern and Southern Africa Office (ESAO)

Kwadwo Asenso-Okyere

2020 Vision Initiative

Rajul Pandya-Lorch

Communications

Klaus von Grebmer

Markets, Trade, and Institutions

Maximo Torero

Finance and Administration

David Governey

Poverty, Health, and Nutrition

Marie Ruel

Eastern and Southern Africa Office (ESAO)

Kwadwo Asenso-Okyere

HarvestPlus® Challenge Program (with CIAT)

Howarth Bouis

New Delhi Office

P.K. Joshi(Acting) Latin America

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This presentation:



Global food security



Factors affecting food insecurity



Urgent actions



In conclusion



Urgent actions

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Despite progress, many are still hungry

Number of undernourished persons

1,000 1,200

100 120

Southeast Asia World

Source: DatafromFAO 2011 Source: United Nations 2010

600 800

60 80

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GHI measures three dimensions of

easures three dimensions of

hunger

Undernourishment (% population with insufficient

food/calories)

Child malnutrition (% < 5 underweight)

Child mortality (<5 years)

Undernourishment (% population with insufficient

food/calories)

Child malnutrition (% < 5 underweight)

Child mortality (<5 years)

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Country performance: by severity

29 countries:

29 countries: alarming" oror extremely alarming levels of hunger

levels of hunger _{Source: GHI 2010}

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This presentation:

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Urgent actions

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In conclusion



Urgent actions

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Rapidly growing population and

demographic change

World population reaches 9 billion by 2050

 All growth to come from urban areas

 Most growth to come from developing

countries

World population reaches 9 billion by 2050

 All growth to come from urban areas

 Most growth to come from developing

countries

Source: FAO 2009.

 Larger and more urban population will

demand more and better food

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Growing land constraints

Arable land per capita (ha in use per person)

Source: Ahamed et al 2006

Global extent of soils with low nutrient capital

reserves

Source: Bruinsma 2009

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Severe water constraints

With business as usual, high water

stress by 2050 puts at risk:

52% of global population

49% of global

grain production

45% of global GDP

With business as usual, high water

stress by 2050 puts at risk:

52% of global population

49% of global

grain production

45% of global GDP

Source:Veolia Water and IFPRI 2011

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Natural disasters undermine food security

# of persons affected, 2009

Negative impacts on the

poor and hungry through:

 crop and asset losses

 agric. and non-agric. infrastructure damages

 farm and non-farm

income declines

 higher expenditure costs, etc.

Source: The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database 2011

Negative impacts on the

poor and hungry through:

 crop and asset losses

 agric. and non-agric. infrastructure damages

 farm and non-farm

income declines

 higher expenditure costs, etc.

Disaster risk management should be integrated ex ante into food security strategies (Haen 2008)

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Climate change adds to pressure on food

systems

 Increased intensity and rate of natural disasters e.g.

droughts and floods

 Large yield losses and production cuts

Climate change impact on production: Irrigated rice, 2050

 Increased intensity and rate of natural disasters e.g.

droughts and floods

 Large yield losses and production cuts

SE Asia total production = -17%

Source: IFPRI 2011

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Climate change will push up food prices

World food price increases under various scenarios, 2010 2050 (% change from 2010)

Source: Nelson et al. 2010

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Food Fuel Competition:

Rising energy prices influence food security

80 100 120 140 U S $/ b ar rel

Average crude oil price

 Rising energy prices cause food prices to

increase, rather than the reverse (Heady and Fan 2010)

 Rising energy prices make biofuels more profitable, rather than agricultural production more expensive

(Abbott, Hurt, and Tyner 2008)

0 20 40 60 80 U S $/ b ar rel

 Rising energy prices cause food prices to

increase, rather than the reverse (Heady and Fan 2010)

 Rising energy prices make biofuels more profitable, rather than agricultural production more expensive

(Abbott, Hurt, and Tyner 2008)

Source: Data from IMF 2011

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Biofuel boom

 Biofuel production to more than double from 2007-09 to 2019 (OECD-FAO 2010)

 Biofuel demand to grow four-fold between 2008 and 2035 (IEA 2010)

 Biofuels support to rise

2009: $20 bn

From 2010 to 2020: $45

bn

From 2011 to 2035: $65

bn

World ethanol and biodiesel production 3 4 5 6 15 20 25 B il li o n g al lo n s B il li o n g al lo n s Ethanol Biodiesel

 Biofuel production to more than double from 2007-09 to 2019 (OECD-FAO 2010)

 Biofuel demand to grow four-fold between 2008 and 2035 (IEA 2010)

 Biofuels support to rise

2009: $20 bn

From 2010 to 2020: $45

bn

From 2011 to 2035: $65

bn 0 1 2 3 0 5 10

1995 2000 2005 2010

B il li o n g al lo n s B il li o n g al lo n s

Source: Data from Earth Policy Institute 2011

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Biofuels in Indonesia

 Indonesia is world s largest crude palm oil producer

 7 million hectares of oil palm plantation

 20 million tons of CPO produced per year

 1993-2003 there was a decline in staple crop farmers in Sumatra: 3,140,000 to 3,080,000

and an increase in plantation smallholders:

1,766,000 to 2,831,000

 Indonesia is world s largest crude palm oil producer

 7 million hectares of oil palm plantation

 20 million tons of CPO produced per year

 1993-2003 there was a decline in staple crop farmers in Sumatra: 3,140,000 to 3,080,000

and an increase in plantation smallholders:

1,766,000 to 2,831,000

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15 20 25 30 35 40 E s ti m a te d a re a s h a rv e s te d t o m a iz e ( M il li on h a ) Biofuels maize Non-biofuels maize 20 30 40 200 300 400 (% ) Mi ll io n t o ns Maize production

Share of maize used for ethanol

Food-fuel competition

(e.g. U.S. maize)

0 5 10 15 E s ti m a te d a re a s h a rv e s te d t o m a iz e ( M il li on h a ) 0 10 20 0 100 200

1995 2000 2005 2010

(% ) Mi ll io n t o ns

Source: Data from Earth Policy Institute 2011 Source: Data from USDA 2011; Headey 2011

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Food price hikes and volatility

Global hikes since June 2010

Maize: 90% Wheat: 82%

High domestic food inflation

China: 10% (Jan. 2011, y-o-y)

India: 11% (Feb. 2011, y-o-y)

Driven by non-staples

Volatility due to

Natural disasters Panic purchases

Trade restrictions, etc.

400 600 800 U S $ /me tri c to n Maize Wheat Rice

Global hikes since June 2010

Maize: 90% Wheat: 82%

High domestic food inflation

China: 10% (Jan. 2011, y-o-y)

India: 11% (Feb. 2011, y-o-y)

Driven by non-staples

Volatility due to

Natural disasters Panic purchases

Trade restrictions, etc.

Source: FAO 2011

0 200 400 U S $ /me tri c to n

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The goal of halving hunger is off-track

Number of hungry people, 1990-2015

946

Source: Fan 2010

584

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Domestic prices are also rising rapidly

Source: FAO 2011

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Agricultural transformation

In Asia:

Declining importance of grains & other staple foods

Rising importance of high-value agricultural commodities

Green Revolution was supply-led, this transformation is largely demand-driven

In Asia:

Declining importance of grains & other staple foods

Rising importance of high-value agricultural commodities

Green Revolution was supply-led, this transformation is largely demand-driven

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Implications of agricultural transformation

Change in marketing channels more coordination

Opportunities and challenges for small farmers

New roles for government

Change in marketing channels more coordination

Opportunities and challenges for small farmers

New roles for government

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This presentation:



Global food security



Urgent actions



In conclusion



Urgent actions

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Urgent Actions

 Establish social protection for the most vulnerable groups

 Invest in climate change adaptation and mitigation

 Minimize food-fuel competition

 Create global emergency physical grain reserve

 Implement transparent, fair and open global trade

 Invest in agriculture and smallholder productivity

 Establish social protection for the most vulnerable groups

 Invest in climate change adaptation and mitigation

 Minimize food-fuel competition

 Create global emergency physical grain reserve

 Implement transparent, fair and open global trade

 Invest in agriculture and smallholder productivity

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Promote social protection, especially social

safety nets, for the most vulnerable groups

 Bangladesh Vulnerable Group Development Program

Increased per capita food consumption by 45-66 kcal per

taka transfer (Ahmed et al. 2009)

 Ethiopia Productive Safety Nets Program (PSNP)

With access to both safety nets and agric.

support, beneficiaries are more food secure and productive (Gilligan, Hoddinott, and Taffesse 2009)

 Nigeria Fadama II Development Project

Increased the value of individual productive assets by about 50% (Nkonya et al. 2008)

 Bangladesh Vulnerable Group Development Program

Increased per capita food consumption by 45-66 kcal per

taka transfer (Ahmed et al. 2009)

 Ethiopia Productive Safety Nets Program (PSNP)

With access to both safety nets and agric.

support, beneficiaries are more food secure and productive (Gilligan, Hoddinott, and Taffesse 2009)

 Nigeria Fadama II Development Project

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 Strong advocacy but many countries failed to put social protection in place during the 2007 08 food crisis and its aftermath.

 The prospect of continued food price volatility suggests that the establishment of safety nets should be accelerated.

 National governments should either expand safety net programs already in place or begin program development immediately.

Promote social protection, especially social

safety nets, for the most vulnerable groups

 Strong advocacy but many countries failed to put social protection in place during the 2007 08 food crisis and its aftermath.

 The prospect of continued food price volatility suggests that the establishment of safety nets should be accelerated.

 National governments should either expand safety net programs already in place or begin program development immediately.

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Invest in climate change adaptation and

mitigation esp. through agriculture

Adaptation: e.g.

improved land management adjustment of planting dates

introduction of new crop varieties

Mitigation: e.g.

improved energy efficiency and crop yields

land management techniques to increase carbon storage Adaptation: e.g.

improved land management adjustment of planting dates

introduction of new crop varieties

Mitigation: e.g.

improved energy efficiency and crop yields

land management techniques to increase carbon storage

Source:IPCC 2007; Nelson et al. 2009

At least additional US$7 billion agricultural

productivity investments are needed annually to offset adverse effects on human well-being

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Invest in effective policies and technologies

to minimize food fuel competition



Curtail and reform existing bio-fuel policies

and subsidies to maximize environmental

benefits

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Minimize bio-fuel demand s possible

contribution to the volatility of international

and domestic food markets

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Look at long term environmental effects



Curtail and reform existing bio-fuel policies

and subsidies to maximize environmental

benefits



Minimize bio-fuel demand s possible

contribution to the volatility of international

and domestic food markets



Look at long term environmental effects

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A global emergency grain reserve can calm

markets and help countries respond to

serious shortages



Currently there is no global, physical, shared

system in place



Consequently the most vulnerable are hit

hardest each time as a result of volatile

markers

Implement a global emergency physical

grain reserve



A global emergency grain reserve can calm

markets and help countries respond to

serious shortages



Currently there is no global, physical, shared

system in place



Consequently the most vulnerable are hit

hardest each time as a result of volatile

markers

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Implement a global emergency physical

grain reserve



The grain reserve should be owned and

managed by an institution such as the World

Food Programme.



The reserve should be created through

donations of grain stocks from large food

exporters



Start first on small experimental scale



The grain reserve should be owned and

managed by an institution such as the World

Food Programme.



The reserve should be created through

donations of grain stocks from large food

exporters



Start first on small experimental scale

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 Export bans lead to tighter markets and induce panic purchases by food-importing

countries, leading to further price increases and volatility.

 Eliminating export bans could benefit domestic food markets, since export bans tend to inhibit domestic production response.

 Governments should also eliminate harmful import tariffs and nontariff trade barriers.

Implement transparent , fair, and open

global trade to enhance the efficiency of

global agricultural markets

 Export bans lead to tighter markets and induce panic purchases by food-importing

countries, leading to further price increases and volatility.

 Eliminating export bans could benefit domestic food markets, since export bans tend to inhibit domestic production response.

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 Public policy should ensure that small farmers have opportunities to increase their productivity and income

 Policies should focus on improving smallholders access to inputs such as seeds and fertilizer

 Governments and institutions should strongly promote new agricultural technologies suitable for smallholders through increased investment in crop breeding and livestock research.

Invest in agriculture and smallholder

productivity

 Public policy should ensure that small farmers have opportunities to increase their productivity and income

 Policies should focus on improving smallholders access to inputs such as seeds and fertilizer

 Governments and institutions should strongly promote new agricultural technologies suitable for smallholders through increased investment in crop breeding and livestock research.

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40 60 80 100 15 20 25 30 35 40 2005$int, bill 2005$int, bill

Transportation & Communication Social Protection

Defense Health Education Agriculture

Total (right axis)

Invest in agriculture and smallholder

productivity

0 20 40 0 5 10 15

1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007

Source: Data from IFPRI SPEED database

Improve access to quality seeds, fertilizer, financial and extension services, crop insurance, new

technologies, rural infrastructure

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This presentation:



Urgent actions



In conclusion



Urgent actions

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Urgent actions are needed to:

1 Provide social protection, esp. productive safety nets

2 Invest in climate change agric. adaptation and mitigation

3 Promote effective policies and technology investments to minimize food-fuel competition

4 Establish global emergency physical grain reserve 4 Establish global emergency physical grain reserve

5 Support transparent, fair, and open global trade

6 Promote policies and investments to promote agric. growth

7 An international working group to regularly monitor the world food situation

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Important: Emerging economies have a key role to play in enhancing food security

 South-South trade: Expanding

 South-South FDI: ~1/3 of all

FDI to developing countries

Emerging economies:

 promote technologies more

suitable for developing countries

 provide buffer during crises

 provide platform for mutual learning 25 30 35 Brazil China India

Agriculture and food exports to developing countries (US$ bil.)

 South-South trade: Expanding

 South-South FDI: ~1/3 of all

FDI to developing countries

Emerging economies:

 promote technologies more

suitable for developing countries

 provide buffer during crises

 provide platform for mutual learning 0 5 10 15 20 India Indonesia

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Sources

Fan, S., M. Torero, and D. Heady. 2011. Urgent actions needed to prevent

recurring food crises. IFPRI Policy Brief 16. Washington, D.C.: International

Food Policy Research Institute.

Fan, S. 2011a. Global food security challenges and opportunities. Presentation presented at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln s Interdisciplinary Research Initiative in Food, Water, and Energy Resources Policy Event, April

13, Nebraska, USA.

Fan, S. 2011b. Urgent actions needed to address emerging food security

challenges. Presentation presented at the international Workshop on Climate

Change, Price Volatility, and Food Security: Perspectives from Southeast Asia, April 20, Jakarta, Indonesia.

Minot, N. 2008. Growth in high value agriculture and emergence of vertical

links with farmers. Presentation presented at the Inception Workshop for

project Transforming high value agricultural markets in Indonesia, November 4, Bogor, Indonesia.

Ruel, M. 2010. Global Hunger Index 2010. Presentation presented at the Global Hunger Index 2010 Launch Des Moines, October 14, Iowa, USA. Fan, S., M. Torero, and D. Heady. 2011. Urgent actions needed to prevent

recurring food crises. IFPRI Policy Brief 16. Washington, D.C.: International

Food Policy Research Institute.

Fan, S. 2011a. Global food security challenges and opportunities. Presentation presented at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln s Interdisciplinary Research Initiative in Food, Water, and Energy Resources Policy Event, April

13, Nebraska, USA.

Fan, S. 2011b. Urgent actions needed to address emerging food security

challenges. Presentation presented at the international Workshop on Climate

Change, Price Volatility, and Food Security: Perspectives from Southeast Asia, April 20, Jakarta, Indonesia.

Minot, N. 2008. Growth in high value agriculture and emergence of vertical

links with farmers. Presentation presented at the Inception Workshop for

project Transforming high value agricultural markets in Indonesia, November 4, Bogor, Indonesia.