Lampiran 1
Jadwal Penelitian
No Uraian Kegiatan Maret 2015 April 2015 Mei 2015 Juni 2015 I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV 1 Kolokium
2 Pengumpulan Data 3 Pengolahan Data 4 Penyusunan
Laporan Penelitian 5 Seminar Hasil 6 Perbaikan Seminar
Rasio Kemandirian Kabupaten/Kota di Provinsi Sumatera Utara 2010-2013
No
. Kabupaten/Kota
Rasio Kemandirian
2010 2011 2012 2013
1 Nias 0,0599 0,0468 0,0728 0,0966
2 Mandailing Natal 0,0198 0,0405 0,0269 0,0547 3 Tapanuli Selatan 0,0589 0,0880 0,0774 0,0854 4 Tapanuli Tengah 0,0296 0,0326 0,0299 0,0266 5 Tapanuli Utara 0,0274 0,0342 0,0289 0,0445
6 Toba Samosir 0,0262 0,0292 0,0252 0,0276
7 Labuhan Batu 0,0713 0,0760 0,0778 0,0602
8 Asahan 0,0362 0,0377 0,0364 0,0447
9 Simalungun 0,0466 0,0394 0,0439 0,0667
10 Dairi 0,0394 0,0322 0,0341 0,0416
11 Karo 0,0473 0,0544 0,0547 0,0510
12 Deli Serdang 0,0922 0,1316 0,1570 0,1566
13 Langkat 0,0315 0,0312 0,0938 0,0421
14 Nias Selatan 0,0252 0,0469 0,0225 0,0965
15 Humbang Hasundutan 0,0245 0,0277 0,0325 0,0281
16 Pakpak Barat 0,0194 0,0195 0,0204 0,0233
17 Samosir 0,0696 0,0341 0,0390 0,0503
18 Serdang Badagai 0,0340 0,0460 0,0448 0,0510
19 Batubara 0,0410 0,0235 0,0254 0,0354
20 Padang Lawas Utara 0,0156 0,0204 0,0220 0,0255
21 Padang Lawas 0,0341 0,0208 0,0204 0,0429
22 Labuhan Batu Selatan 0,0231 0,0394 0,0375 0,0431 23 Labuhan Batu Utara 0,0262 0,0194 0,0282 0,0340
24 Nias Utara 0,0108 0,0201 0,0194 0,0216
25 Nias Barat 0,0078 0,0098 0,0126 0,0221
26 Sibolga 0,0512 0,0561 0,0649 0,0637
27 Tanjung Balai 0,0710 0,0698 0,0594 0,0588 28 Pematang Siantar 0,0431 0,0792 0,0746 0,0839 29 Tebing Tinggi 0,0758 0,0817 0,0982 0,0892
30 Medan 0,2845 0,3622 0,3829 0,3681
31 Binjai 0,0426 0,0457 0,0699 0,0691
Lampiran 2.2
Rasio Efektivitas Kabupaten/Kota di Provinsi Sumatera Utara 2010-2013
No
. Kabupaten/Kota
Rasio Efisiensi Kabupaten/Kota di Provinsi Sumatera Utara 2010-2013
No
. Kabupaten/Kota
Rasio Efisiensi
2010 2011 2012 2013
1 Nias 0,5413 0,6804 0,7559 0,7795
2 Mandailing Natal 0,8360 0,8704 0,8222 0,8439 3 Tapanuli Selatan 0,9845 0,9910 0,8403 0,7352 4 Tapanuli Tengah 0,9537 0,8005 0,7655 0,7076 5 Tapanuli Utara 0,7854 0,6635 0,7571 0,7890
6 Toba Samosir 0,7846 0,8294 0,7717 0,7658
7 Labuhan Batu 0,6790 0,8087 0,8167 0,7751
8 Asahan 0,7705 0,6856 0,7487 0,8116
9 Simalungun 0,7665 0,7830 0,7944 0,8573
10 Dairi 0,8354 0,8123 0,8820 0,8660
11 Karo 0,7604 0,7239 0,8100 0,7772
12 Deli Serdang 0,8184 0,7552 0,8473 0,8541
13 Langkat 0,8738 0,8995 0,8665 0,7985
14 Nias Selatan 0,5974 0,7348 0,6735 0,7450 15 Humbang Hasundutan 0,8272 0,8317 0,8225 0,7790 16 Pakpak Barat 0,8776 0,7541 0,8909 0,8513
17 Samosir 0,8001 0,7295 0,8935 0,8007
18 Serdang Badagai 0,8158 0,8743 0,8728 0,7967
19 Batubara 0,7590 0,7206 0,8450 0,8125
20 Padang Lawas Utara 1,0030 0,7009 0,7307 0,7668 21 Padang Lawas 0,7606 0,7197 0,9543 0,8628 22 Labuhan Batu Selatan 0,8391 0,6649 0,7682 0,5913 23 Labuhan Batu Utara 0,7799 0,7434 0,6990 0,7111
24 Nias Utara 1,1217 0,9304 0,7906 0,7201
25 Nias Barat 0,9341 0,9300 0,9771 0,6951
26 Sibolga 0,8983 0,8046 0,8051 0,8754
27 Tanjung Balai 0,8016 0,8775 0,7952 0,9950 28 Pematang Siantar 0,8084 0,7703 0,8307 0,7963 29 Tebing Tinggi 0,8015 0,6485 0,7596 0,7547
30 Medan 0,6726 0,7078 0,8364 0,8357
31 Binjai 0,8909 0,7517 0,7547 0,7345
Lampiran 2.4
Rasio Ruang Fiskal Kabupaten/Kota di Provinsi Sumatera Utara 2010-2013
No
. Kabupaten/Kota
Rasio Ruang Fiskal
Rasio Keserasian Kabupaten/Kota di Provinsi Sumatera Utara 2010-2013
No
. Kabupaten/Kota
Rasio Keserasian
2010 2011 2012 2013
1 Nias 0,1342 0,2277 0,0883 0,0867
2 Mandailing Natal 0,2431 0,2165 0,1887 0,1831 3 Tapanuli Selatan 0,2153 0,2262 0,2135 0,2025 4 Tapanuli Tengah 0,2420 0,2258 0,2133 0,1709 5 Tapanuli Utara 0,1771 0,0188 0,1667 0,1761
6 Toba Samosir 0,2171 0,1944 0,1765 0,1745
7 Labuhan Batu 0,2304 0,2010 0,1759 0,1769
8 Asahan 0,2643 0,2318 0,2194 0,1963
9 Simalungun 0,1870 0,1929 0,1745 0,1730
10 Dairi 0,2024 0,2004 0,1914 0,1969
11 Karo 0,2095 0,1830 0,1590 0,1443
12 Deli Serdang 0,1705 0,1883 0,1653 0,1716
13 Langkat 0,1930 0,1940 0,1758 0,1836
14 Nias Selatan 0,3062 0,3075 0,3142 0,3126 15 Humbang Hasundutan 0,2820 0,2404 0,1962 0,1722 16 Pakpak Barat 0,3280 0,2583 0,2708 0,2134
17 Samosir 0,3698 0,2006 0,2105 0,1825
18 Serdang Badagai 0,3423 0,2306 0,2326 0,2244
19 Batubara 0,2208 0,2096 0,2074 0,2027
20 Padang Lawas Utara 0,2565 0,1939 0,1692 0,2258 21 Padang Lawas 0,2470 0,2269 0,2388 0,2428 22 Labuhan Batu Selatan 0,4739 0,2146 0,1915 0,1477 23 Labuhan Batu Utara 0,5964 0,1953 0,1547 0,1750
24 Nias Utara 0,1693 0,2436 0,1411 0,1233
25 Nias Barat 0,4043 0,4148 0,3939 0,4043
26 Sibolga 0,2721 0,2342 0,2275 0,1011
27 Tanjung Balai 0,2851 0,2598 0,2111 0,2141 28 Pematang Siantar 0,3066 0,2640 0,1982 1,0000 29 Tebing Tinggi 0,2500 0,2048 0,1810 0,1557
30 Medan 0,2562 0,2427 0,2428 0,2299
31 Binjai 0,2292 0,1843 0,1814 0,1792
Lampiran 2.6
Indeks Kapasitas Fiskal Kabupaten/Kota di Provinsi Sumatera Utara 2010-2013
No
. Kabupaten/Kota
Indeks Kapasitas Fiskal
2010 2011 2012 2013
15 Humbang Hasundutan 1,0086 0,6075 0,5401 0,2461
Laju Pertumbuhan Ekonomi Kabupaten/Kota di Provinsi Sumatera Utara 2010-2013
No
. Kabupaten/Kota
Laju Pertumbuhan Ekonomi
2010 2011 2012 2013
1 Nias 6,75 6,81 6,24 6,43
2 Mandailing Natal 6,41 6,40 6,41 6,41
3 Tapanuli Selatan 5,06 5,30 5,22 5,21
4 Tapanuli Tengah 6,13 6,28 6,35 6,85
5 Tapanuli Utara 5,56 5,54 5,95 6,05
6 Toba Samosir 5,50 5,26 5,52 5,14
7 Labuhan Batu 5,15 5,72 6,11 6,00
8 Asahan 4,97 5,37 5,57 5,83
9 Simalungun 5,12 5,81 6,06 4,48
10 Dairi 5,02 5,28 5,44 5,46
11 Karo 6,03 6,59 6,34 4,72
12 Deli Serdang 5,98 6,01 6,06 12,79
13 Langkat 5,74 5,78 5,66 5,97
14 Nias Selatan 4,12 4,46 5,78 5,16
15 Humbang Hasundutan 5,45 5,94 5,99 6,03
16 Pakpak Barat 6,77 5,98 6,02 5,86
17 Samosir 5,59 5,96 6,07 6,46
18 Serdang Badagai 6,14 5,98 6,00 5,97
19 Batubara 4,65 5,11 4,37 3,35
20 Padang Lawas Utara 6,74 6,81 6,38 6,13
21 Padang Lawas 5,56 6,39 6,31 6,12
22 Labuhan Batu Selatan 5,61 6,13 6,33 6,05
23 Labuhan Batu Utara 5,68 6,21 6,38 6,33
24 Nias Utara 6,73 6,68 5,88 6,25
25 Nias Barat 6,30 6,76 4,93 5,81
26 Sibolga 6,04 5,09 5,34 5,80
27 Tanjung Balai 4,76 4,86 4,99 4,52
28 Pematang Siantar 5,85 6,02 5,71 5,16
29 Tebing Tinggi 6,04 6,67 6,75 6,91
30 Medan 7,16 7,69 7,63 4,30
31 Binjai 6,07 6,28 6,34 6,48
32 Padang Sidimpuan 5,81 5,88 6,23 6,20
Lampiran 2.8
Jumlah Pengangguran Kabupaten/Kota di Provinsi Sumatera Utara 2010-2013
No
. Kabupaten/Kota
Jumlah Kemiskinan Kabupaten/Kota di Provinsi Sumatera Utara 2010-2013
No
. Kabupaten/Kota
Jumlah Kemiskinan
2010 2011 2012 2013
1 Nias 26.400 25.390 24.990 23.280
2 Mandailing Natal 50.900 49.050 48.390 40.690 3 Tapanuli Selatan 31.500 30.390 29.910 30.770 4 Tapanuli Tengah 52.200 50.210 49.610 52.000 5 Tapanuli Utara 34.900 33.570 33.090 33.750
6 Toba Samosir 17.600 16.930 16.640 16.960
7 Labuhan Batu 44.300 42.610 42.080 38.140
8 Asahan 76.300 73.390 72.320 80.540
9 Simalungun 87.700 84.350 83.090 87.720
10 Dairi 26.900 25.870 25.490 24.000
11 Karo 38.700 37.220 36.710 36.930
12 Deli Serdang 96.000 92.330 91.190 91.970
13 Langkat 104.800 100.800 99.270 104.310
14 Nias Selatan 60.100 57.800 56.940 56.960
15 Humbang Hasundutan 18.200 17.500 17.250 17.940
16 Pakpak Barat 5.600 5.390 5.320 4.940
17 Samosir 19.700 18.950 18.480 17.180
18 Serdang Badagai 62.800 60.500 59.530 56.550
19 Batubara 46.000 44.340 43.660 46.860
20 Padang Lawas Utara 25.000 24.040 23.720 25.010
21 Padang Lawas 25.000 24.040 23.640 21.230
22 Labuhan Batu Selatan 43.400 41.740 41.210 37.330 23 Labuhan Batu Utara 40.900 39.340 38.680 39.090
24 Nias Utara 40.700 39.150 38.510 40.780
25 Nias Barat 25.100 24.240 23.840 24.880
26 Sibolga 11.700 11.250 11.130 11.080
27 Tanjung Balai 25.200 24.240 23.860 24.200 28 Pematang Siantar 27.500 26.450 26.010 26.610 29 Tebing Tinggi 18.900 18.270 18.020 17.980
30 Medan 212.300 204.190 201.060 209.690
31 Binjai 18.000 17.410 17.160 17.480
Lampiran 3
CFA, Path Diagram Full Model, Goodness Of Fit
Estimate S.E. C.R. P Label
X .002 .003 .758 .448 par_11
e7 .782 .100 7.851 *** par_12
e6 .105 .013 8.080 *** par_13
e5 .011 .001 8.092 *** par_14
e4 .012 .001 8.091 *** par_15
e3 .008 .001 8.092 *** par_16
e2 .169 .021 8.090 *** par_17
e1 .001 .000 7.375 *** par_18
e8 13835721.866 12118092.141 1.142 .254 par_19 e9 207523843.521 43602843.108 4.759 *** par_20
Model Fit Summary
CMIN
Model NPAR CMIN DF P CMIN/DF
Default model 20 49.545 25 .002 1.982
Saturated model 45 .000 0
Independence model 9 431.013 36 .000 11.973
RMR, GFI
Model RMR GFI AGFI PGFI
Default model 33321.340 .922 .860 .512
Saturated model .000 1.000
Independence model 103334157.442 .645 .556 .516
Baseline Comparisons
Model NFI
Delta1
RFI rho1
IFI Delta2
TLI
rho2 CFI Default model .885 .834 .940 .911 .938
Saturated model 1.000 1.000 1.000
Independence model .000 .000 .000 .000 .000
Parsimony-Adjusted Measures
Model PRATIO PNFI PCFI
NCP
Model NCP LO 90 HI 90
Default model 24.545 8.300 48.567 Saturated model .000 .000 .000 Independence model 395.013 331.837 465.638
FMIN
Model FMIN F0 LO 90 HI 90
Default model .378 .187 .063 .371 Saturated model .000 .000 .000 .000 Independence model 3.290 3.015 2.533 3.554
RMSEA
Model RMSEA LO 90 HI 90 PCLOSE
Default model .087 .050 .122 .049
Independence model .289 .265 .314 .000
AIC
Model AIC BCC BIC CAIC
Default model 89.545 92.851 147.201 167.201 Saturated model 90.000 97.438 219.726 264.726 Independence model 449.013 450.501 474.959 483.959
ECVI
Model ECVI LO 90 HI 90 MECVI
Default model .684 .560 .867 .709 Saturated model .687 .687 .687 .744 Independence model 3.428 2.945 3.967 3.439
HOELTER
Model HOELTER
.05
HOELTER .01
Default model 100 118
Pengujian Asumsi SEM
Assessment of normality (Group number 1)
Variable min max skew c.r. kurtosis c.r.
Y1 3.350 12.790 2.879 13.502 22.512 52.796 Y22 4940.000 212300.000 2.752 12.906 9.087 21.311 Y21 112.000 133811.000 3.525 16.532 13.392 31.407
X1 .008 .383 4.030 18.904 18.006 42.227
X2 .205 3.328 1.800 8.444 6.262 14.686
X3 .541 1.122 .330 1.549 1.278 2.996
X4 .102 .553 -.040 -.189 -.894 -2.097
X5 .019 1.000 3.925 18.409 23.951 56.170
X6 .039 2.017 2.629 12.333 8.937 20.960
Multivariate 96.550 39.417
Observations farthest from the centroid (Mahalanobis distance) (Group number 1)
Observation number Mahalanobis d-squared p1 p2
127 63.932 .000 .000
111 57.967 .000 .000
96 44.282 .000 .000
12 43.230 .000 .000
30 42.257 .000 .000
129 40.195 .000 .000
57 38.616 .000 .000
63 30.739 .000 .000
16 26.887 .001 .000
23 22.581 .007 .000
49 21.259 .012 .000
120 19.886 .019 .000
82 19.015 .025 .000
1 18.828 .027 .000
24 17.492 .042 .000
132 16.156 .064 .010
45 14.935 .093 .104
121 14.850 .095 .076
14 14.338 .111 .142
22 14.310 .112 .098
112 13.776 .131 .196
47 12.926 .166 .528
7 5.036 .831 1.000
15 5.019 .833 1.000
89 4.991 .835 1.000
93 4.989 .835 1.000
85 4.901 .843 1.000
31 4.838 .848 1.000
94 4.757 .855 1.000
60 4.736 .857 1.000
54 4.576 .870 1.000
32 4.546 .872 1.000
92 4.504 .875 1.000
74 4.483 .877 1.000
11 4.411 .882 1.000
88 4.400 .883 1.000
26 4.387 .884 1.000
68 4.352 .887 1.000
103 4.333 .888 1.000
17 4.253 .894 1.000
39 4.181 .899 1.000
130 4.113 .904 1.000
122 4.092 .905 1.000
59 4.047 .908 1.000
6 4.009 .911 1.000
27 3.993 .912 1.000
65 3.903 .918 1.000
21 3.886 .919 1.000
18 3.809 .924 1.000
116 3.804 .924 1.000
29 3.789 .925 1.000
102 3.702 .930 1.000
110 3.631 .934 1.000
97 3.621 .935 1.000
119 3.595 .936 1.000
Sample Covariances (Group number 1)
Y1 Y22 Y21 X1 X2 X3 X4 X5 X6
Y1 .835
Y22 4657.784 1368767155.297
Y21 4571.088 693186601.270 431814826.089 X1 .011 1637.653 994.269 .003 X2 -.012 -940.684 -1011.100 -.001 .171 X3 .000 -261.439 -143.833 -.001 -.002 .008 X4 .007 -510.131 -199.306 .000 .001 .000 .012 X5 -.011 -122.099 -110.215 .000 -.002 .001 .001 .011 X6 -.012 -3126.908 -765.552 -.001 -.015 .003 .010 .006 .107 Condition number = 1585655004038.170
Eigenvalues
Pengujian Asumsi SEM Setelah Transformasi
Assessment of normality (Group number 1)
Variable min max skew c.r. kurtosis c.r. Y1 1.475 1.933 -.745 -3.203 .027 .059 Y22 8.505 11.560 -.318 -1.367 .267 .574 Y21 5.537 11.347 -.603 -2.594 .333 .716 X1 -4.371 -1.852 .153 .658 -.512 -1.100 X2 -1.048 .834 -.198 -.851 1.451 3.121
X3 -.433 .011 .303 1.303 .039 .083
X4 -2.282 -.613 -.747 -3.212 .550 1.183 X5 -2.292 -.906 .321 1.380 1.403 3.018 X6 -3.242 .702 -.031 -.135 1.026 2.206
Multivariate 3.817 1.429
Observations farthest from the centroid (Mahalanobis distance) (Group number 1)
Observation number Mahalanobis d-squared p1 p2
26 21.515 .011 .692
78 20.200 .017 .556
67 20.198 .017 .284
107 18.953 .026 .317
39 18.495 .030 .238
106 18.435 .030 .124
15 18.090 .034 .086
97 17.338 .044 .113
105 17.068 .048 .084
99 17.048 .048 .041
62 16.732 .053 .034
74 15.708 .073 .113
65 15.516 .078 .090
8 14.967 .092 .140
66 14.406 .109 .222
96 14.395 .109 .150
18 14.231 .114 .129
34 14.197 .116 .087
14 14.135 .118 .060
108 13.891 .126 .064
6 13.778 .130 .050
77 13.200 .154 .124
10 7.001 .637 .798
12 6.941 .643 .782
22 6.865 .651 .775
24 6.688 .670 .835
92 6.673 .671 .791
50 6.637 .675 .757
3 6.488 .690 .802
38 6.448 .694 .771
5 6.425 .697 .724
88 6.392 .700 .681
71 6.366 .703 .628
80 6.230 .717 .672
49 6.218 .718 .605
70 6.130 .727 .605
64 6.128 .727 .523
25 5.870 .753 .681
110 5.756 .764 .702
1 5.658 .774 .709
23 5.619 .777 .664
83 5.618 .777 .580
84 5.398 .798 .698
59 5.122 .824 .836
57 5.107 .825 .781
60 5.097 .826 .712
54 5.090 .826 .630
87 5.028 .832 .594
91 4.917 .841 .604
56 4.848 .847 .570
19 4.822 .850 .491
58 4.792 .852 .414
53 4.762 .855 .339
75 4.638 .865 .347
35 4.431 .881 .430
Sample Moments (Group number 1)
Sample Covariances (Group number 1)
Y1 Y22 Y21 X1 X2 X3 X4 X5 X6
Y1 .011
Y22 -.008 .429
Y21 -.004 .540 1.410
X1 -.008 .057 .264 .252
X2 -.006 -.005 -.025 .046 .093
X3 -.001 -.006 -.005 -.003 -.004 .009
X4 .001 -.082 -.136 -.023 -.005 -.004 .123
X5 -.004 -.021 -.068 -.020 -.005 .003 .012 .048
X6 -.001 -.244 -.306 -.037 .012 .007 .094 .051 .410 Condition number = 265.854
Eigenvalues
Pengujian Hipotesis
Regression Weights: (Group number 1 - Default model)
Estimate S.E. C.R. P Label
Squared Multiple Correlations: (Group number 1 - Default model)
Residual Covariances (Group number 1 - Default model)
Y1 Y22 Y21 X1 X2 X3 X4 X5 X6
Y1 .000
Y22 .000 .000
Y21 .000 .014 .000
X1 -.008 -.027 .122 .000
X2 -.006 .002 -.012 .048 .000
X3 -.001 .000 .004 -.001 -.005 .000
X4 .001 .004 .010 .001 -.007 -.005 .000
X5 -.004 .017 -.005 -.010 -.005 .002 .002 .000
X6 .001 -.015 .080 .025 .006 .003 .030 .023 .000
Standardized Residual Covariances (Group number 1 - Default model)
Y1 Y22 Y21 X1 X2 X3 X4 X5 X6
Y1 .000
Y22 .000 .000
Y21 .000 .152 .000
X1 -1.697 -.826 2.094 .000
X2 -2.053 .123 -.349 2.282 .000
X3 -1.487 .029 .399 -.245 -1.705 .000
X4 .380 .175 .237 .049 -.698 -1.663 .000
X5 -1.791 1.172 -.201 -.944 -.861 1.116 .244 .000 X6 .085 -.334 .987 .810 .325 .515 1.338 1.682 .000
Standardized Total Effects (Group number 1 - Default model)
X Y1 Y1 -.029 .000 Y22 -.852 -.142 Y21 -.791 -.057 X1 -.301 .000 X2 .044 .000 X3 .111 .000 X4 .444 .000 X5 .308 .000 X6 .643 .000
Standardized Indirect Effects (Group number 1 - Default model)
Lampiran 7
Laju Pertumbuhan Ekonomi Menurut Lapangan Usaha 2010-2013
No. Lapangan Usaha
Laju Pertumbuhan
2010 2011 2012 2013
Rata-rata
1 Pertanian 5,70 4,82 4,72 4,00 4,81
2 Pertambangan dan
Penggalian 5,87 6,73 2,04 5,48 5,03
3 Industri Pengolahan 4,16 2,05 3,63 4,01 3,46 4 Listrik, Gas dan Air
Minum 6,88 8,21 3,43 3,95 5,62
5 Bangunan 6,77 8,54 6,78 7,17 7,32
6 Perdagangan, Hotel dan
Restoran 6,53 8,09 7,23 7,78 7,41
7 Pengangkutan dan
Komunikasi 9,44 10,02 8,26 7,60 8,83
8 Keuangan, Persewaan
dan Jasa Perusahaan 10,78 13,61 11,20 8,31 10,98
