Riset Teknikal Saham Harian

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Analisa Teknikal

Riset Teknikal Saham Harian

Samuel Research 19 Mei 2017

www.samuel.co.id Page 1 of 7

Hanya Technical Rebound, IHSG Masih Dalam Downtrend

Kenaikan IHSG sampai 5,645 masih terindikasi sebagai Technical Rebound sehingga IHSG masih mempertahankan Downtrend menuju Support kuat di 5,500. Ada Support terdekat di 5,570 yang mungkin hanya menahan

penurunan IHSG sementara – meski tetap berpeluang mengakhiri Downtrend jangka pendek IHSG. Kenaikan di atas 5,670 dalam waktu membuka

peluang IHSG mengawali kembali Uptrend menuju 5,800.

Sektor yang layak dipilih adalah : Cigarettes dan Coal. Sektor untuk Bottom Fishing adalah : Poultry, Retail, Construction dan Toll. Waspadai sektor : Healthcare, Media dan Telecom.

Day Trading Recommendation LQ45 : GGRM

Non-LQ45 : MYOR dan SSIA Swing Trading Recommendation Add : No Change

Drop : No Change Concern : SIMP

 Commodity Related : CPO (SIMP)

 Consumer Related : FMCG (MYOR), Retail (MAPI), Cigarettes (GGRM)

 Infrastructure Related : Construction (ADHI), Telecom (ISAT), Toll (JSMR)

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Riset Teknikal Saham Harian

19 May 2017

Day Trading Recommendation

Saham Last Price 1D %Ch Supp.1 Supp.2 Resist.1 Resist.2 Daily Target Cut Loss MYOR 2180 1.9 2130 2070 2230 2270 2225 2130 GGRM 72025 2.8 69970 67910 73320 74610 73475 70600 SSIA 645 0.8 620 600 660 680 660 630  MYOR dan GGRM masuk ke dalam Swing Trading Recommendation

Swing Trading Recommendation

Stock 1st Add Date 1st Add Open Price Latest Close % Change Since Add Estimated Target % Upside Potential Since Last Close

Entry Timing SIMP 2-Mar-17 570 600 5.3% 800 33.3% Now

GGRM 9-May-17 70,000 72,025 2.9% 78,000 8.3% Now

MYOR 3-Jan-17 1,645 2,180 32.5% 2,500 14.7% Wait MAPI 3-Mar-17 5,350 5,950 11.2% 7,650 28.6% Wait ADHI 7-Apr-17 2,280 2,180 -4.4% 2,600 19.3% Wait ISAT 22-Nov-16 6,100 7,400 21.3% 7,800 5.4% Wait JSMR 8-May-17 4,750 4,800 1.1% 5,200 8.3% Wait BBCA 23-Mar-17 16,400 17,400 6.1% 19,800 13.8% Now

BBRI 26-Apr-17 13,150 14,100 7.2% 16,000 13.5% Now

BBTN 16-Jan-17 1,900 2,400 26.3% 2,750 14.6% Wait  SIMP masuk ke dalam saham yang perlu di waspadai

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Riset Teknikal Saham Harian

19 May 2017

Recommendation Charts

MYOR (Rp2,180) : Mempertahankan Uptrend Channel Menuju Rp2,500

MYOR terindikasi membentuk Bullish Continuation sehingga peluang mempertahankan Uptrend menuju Rp2,500 paska Breakout Rp2,050 masih ada. Perlu waspadai penurunan di bawah Rp1,950

GGRM (Rp72,025) : Mempertahankan Uptrend Menuju Rp76,000

GGRM terindikasi mengalami Technical Correction dan masih mempertahankan Uptrend menuju setidaknya Rp76,000. Waspadai penurunan di bawah Rp69,200

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Riset Teknikal Saham Harian

19 May 2017

SSIA (Rp645) : Membentuk Akhir Technical Correction Menuju Rp730

SSIA masih mempertahankan Uptrend dan berpotensi membentuk akhir dari Technical Correction dengan naik menuju Rp730 untuk melanjutkan Uptrend kembali ke Rp800. Waspadai penurunan di bawah Rp620

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Riset Teknikal Saham Harian

19 May 2017

Sectoral Movement

Relation / Sector Positive Move Negative Move Real Rise Fake Fall Real Fall Fake Rise Staples 76.9% 23.1% 38.5% 38.5% 15.4% 7.7%

Cigarettes 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

FMCG 62.5% 37.5% 25.0% 37.5% 25.0% 12.5%

Poultry 100.0% 0.0% 33.3% 66.7% 0.0% 0.0%

Relation / Sector Positive Move Negative Move Real Rise Fake Fall Real Fall Fake Rise Discretionary 52.9% 47.1% 11.8% 41.2% 47.1% 0.0% Auto 66.7% 33.3% 33.3% 33.3% 33.3% 0.0% Healthcare 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% Pharmacy 50.0% 50.0% 50.0% 0.0% 50.0% 0.0% Retail 85.7% 14.3% 0.0% 85.7% 14.3% 0.0% Media 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0%

Relation / Sector Positive Move Negative Move Real Rise Fake Fall Real Fall Fake Rise Infrastructure 63.2% 36.8% 5.3% 57.9% 26.3% 10.5% Cement 25.0% 75.0% 0.0% 25.0% 50.0% 25.0% Telecom 33.3% 66.7% 0.0% 33.3% 66.7% 0.0% Construction 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% Industrial Area 60.0% 40.0% 20.0% 40.0% 20.0% 20.0% Toll 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Relation / Sector Positive Move Negative Move Real Rise Fake Fall Real Fall Fake Rise Interest 57.9% 42.1% 26.3% 31.6% 15.8% 26.3%

Banking 50.0% 50.0% 25.0% 25.0% 25.0% 25.0%

Residential 63.6% 36.4% 27.3% 36.4% 9.1% 27.3%

Relation / Sector Positive Move Negative Move Real Rise Fake Fall Real Fall Fake Rise Commodity 66.7% 33.3% 52.4% 14.3% 23.8% 9.5%

Coal 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

CPO 66.7% 33.3% 50.0% 16.7% 33.3% 0.0%

Mineral 50.0% 50.0% 0.0% 50.0% 50.0% 0.0%

Oil&Gas 25.0% 75.0% 25.0% 0.0% 25.0% 50.0%

 Semua Relation layak dipantau hari ini namun pilihan terbaik ada pada Staples Consumer Related, Infrastructure Related dan Commodity Related

 Sektor yang layak dipilih adalah : Cigarettes dan Coal

 Sektor untuk Bottom Fishing adalah : Poultry, Retail, Construction dan Toll  Waspadai sektor : Healthcare, Media dan Telecom

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Riset Teknikal Saham Harian

19 May 2017

Technical Analysis Glossary

Support : Level harga dimana berpotensi menahan penurunan lebih lanjut Resistance : Level harga dimana berpotensi menahan kenaikan lebih lanjut

Breakout : Pergerakan harga melewati Resistance dari bawah ke atas. Mengindikasikan Uptrend Breakdown : Pergerakan harga melewati Support dari atas ke bawah. Mengindikasikan Downtrend Throwback : Penurunan paksa terjadi Breakout dimana maksimum penurunan adalah Support yang

berasal dari Resistance yang baru saja di-Breakout

Pullback : Kenaikan paska terjadi Breakdown dimana maksimum kenaikan adalah Resistance yang berasal dari Support yang baru saja di-Breakdown

Technical Rebound : Kenaikan sementara di tengah Downtrend. Kenaikan tersebut akan lebih kecil dari penurunan yang segera terjadi

Technical Correction : Penurunan sementara di tengah Uptrend. Penurunan tersebut akan lebih kecil dari kenaikan yang segera terjadi

Bullish Continuation : Pergerakan yang mengindikasikan Uptrend sebelumnya akan berlanjut Bearish Continuation : Pergerakan yang mengindikasikan Downtrend sebelumnya akan berlanjut

Bullish Reversal : Pergerakan yang mengindikasikan Downtrend sebelumnya berubah menjadi Uptrend Bearish Reversal : Pergerakan yang mengindikasikan Uptrend sebelumnya berubah menjadi Downtrend Up Trendline : Support Diagonal ke arah atas yang menandakan pergerakan Uptrend

Down Trendline : Support Diagonal ke arah atas yang menandakan pergerakan Uptrend Day Trading : Strategi trading dengan Holding Period selama 1 hari sampai 2 minggu Swing Trading : Strategi trading dengan Holding Period sampai 3 bulan

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DISCLAIMERS : Analyst Certification : The views expressed in this research accurately reflect the personal views of the analyst(s) about the subject securities or issuers and no part of the compensation of the analyst(s) was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the inclusion of specific recommendations or views in this research. The analyst(s) principally responsible for the preparation of this research has taken reasonable care to achieve and maintain independence and objectivity in making any recommendations. This document is for information only and for the use of the recipient. It is not to be reproduced or copied or made available to others. Under no circumstances is it to be considered as an offer to sell or solicitation to buy any security. Any recommendation contained in this report may not be suitable for all investors. Moreover, although the information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, its accuracy, completeness and reliability cannot be guaranteed. All rights reserved by PT Samuel Sekuritas Indonesia

Research Team

Andy Ferdinand, CFA Head Of Equity Research, Strategy,

Banking, Consumer [email protected] +6221 2854 8148

Rangga Cipta Economist [email protected] +6221 2854 8396

Muhamad Makky Dandytra, CFTe Technical Analyst [email protected] +6221 2854 8382

Akhmad Nurcahyadi, CSA Auto, Aviation, Cigarette, Construction

Healthcare, Heavy Equipment, Property [email protected] +6221 2854 8144

Arandi Ariantara Cement, Telecommunication, Utility [email protected] +6221 2854 8392

Marlene Tanumihardja Poultry, Retail, Small Caps [email protected] +6221 2854 8387

Sharlita Lutfiah Malik Mining, Plantation [email protected] +6221 2854 8339

Nadya Swastika Research Associate [email protected] +6221 2854 8338

Private Wealth Management

Evelyn Satyono Head of PWM / Institutional Sales [email protected] +6221 2854 8380

Muhamad Alfatih CSA, CTA, CFTe Senior Technical Portfolio Advisor [email protected] +6221 2854 8129

Ronny Ardianto Institutional Equity Sales [email protected] +6221 2854 8399

Clarice Wijana Institutional Equity Sales [email protected] +6221 2854 8395

Fachruly Fiater Institutional Equity Sales [email protected] +6221 2854 8325

Equity Sales Team

Kelvin Long Head of Equities [email protected] +6221 2854 8150

Yulianah Institutional Equity Sales [email protected] +6221 2854 8146

Lucia Irawati Retail Equity Sales [email protected] +6221 2854 8173

Online Trading Sales Team

Nugroho Nuswantoro Head of Marketing Online Trading [email protected] +6221 2854 8372

Wahyu Widodo Marketing [email protected] +6221 2854 8371