LISTRIK DAN PEMBANGUNAN
Faisal Basri
Penduduk Indonesia mirip Jepang th. 1950
Source: Badan Pusat Statistik and http://www.economist.com/blogs/dailychart?page=1&fsrc=scn/fb/wl/bl/dailychartjan10 (20101120_WOC951)
Indonesia
Jepang
66%
29%
5%
15-49
= 55%
Maximizing opportunities:
Indonesia’s remaining demographic dividend
Children: 14 and
below (%)
Elderly: above 64
(%)
Working age: 15 to
64 (%)
Dependency ratio
(%)
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
80.0
90.0
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
80.0
90.0
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
D
e
p
e
n
d
e
n
c
y
r
a
ti
o
:
c
h
il
d
re
n
a
n
d
e
ld
e
rl
y
to
w
o
rk
in
g
a
g
e
(%
)
%
o
f
p
o
p
u
la
ti
o
n
GDP per capita when demographic bonus end
17,475
16,298
12,855
11,347
3,583
7,243
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
Japan
Singapore
Hong Kong
Korea, Rep.
Indonesia
Indonesia
Rea
l GD
P
pe
r c
ap
ita
(c
on
sta
nt
2
00
0
US$)
Source: World Bank, presented by Shubham Chaudhuri at Kompas Economic Panel Discussion, June 21, 2012.
1970
1991
1982
2000
2030
2030
Assuming
6% growth
Assuming
10% growth
The rising population share of middle strata
Class
Cut-off
< $1.25
21.9%
14.0%
$1.25 - $2
40.3%
29.3%
$2 - $4
32.1%
38.5%
$4 - $6
3.9%
11.7%
$6 - $10
1.3%
5.0%
$10 - $20
0.3%
1.3%
High
> $20
0.1% 0.1%
0.2% 0.2%
2003
62.2%
37.7%
43.2%
56.5%
Middle
Low
2010
Note: Per capita expenditure per day is adjusted to the 2005 purchasing power parity terms. Source: World Bank, March 2011, based on Susenas.
Source: World Bank, June 2012
Looking ahead within Indonesia
Top-18 economies
Source: PWC, The world in 2050. New York, 2011.
The future of archipelago economy
Source: McKinsey< The archiipelago economy: Unleashing Indonesia’ sPotential, 2012.
Indonesia
Today
Indonesia in
2030
Economy in the world
16th-largest
7th largest
Member of the consuming
class
45 million
135 million
Population in the cities …
53%
71%
… producing
74% GDP
86% GDP
Number of skilled workers
55 million
113 million
Market opportunity
$0.5 trillion
$1.8 trillion
Real GDP/capita: actual vs potential
Wiggle-room index
China India Brazil Russia
Indonesia
S. Africa
Population (million)
1,344 1,225
195
142
240
50
Life expectancy at birth, total (years)
73.3
65.1
73.1
68.8
68.9
52.1
Surface are (million sq. km)
9.6
3.3
8.5
17.1
1.9
1.2
GDP (current US$)
5,930 1,684 2,143 1,488
708
304
Industry, value added (% of GDP)
46.7
27.1
28.1
36.7
46.9
30.8
Gross capital formation (% of GDP)
48.2
35.1
20.2
22.7
32.4
19.3
Merchandise trade (% of GDP)
50.1
33.8
18.4
43.6
41.4
48.2
Market cap. of listed companies (% of GDP)
80.3
95.9
72.1
67.5
50.9
278.5
Electric power consumption (kWh per capita)
2,631
571 2,206 6,133
590
4,532
Internet users (per 100 people)
34.4
7.5
40.7
43.3
10.9
18.1
Military expenditure (% of GDP)
2.0
2.7
1.6
3.9
0.7
1.3
Source: World Bank, World Development Indicators.
Oil prices
Crude Oil Light Sweet Pit (Nymex) January 2013
Source:
http://online.wsj.com/mdc/public/page/mdc_commodities.html
Adjusted by
producer-price index = US$118
Adjusted by annual
income within G-7
countries = US$134
Adjusted by disposable
income of US = US$145
Spending on oil as a
share of global output =
US$150
•
Source: Economist, April
17, 2008.
2:33 p.m EDTTrade balance of oil and oil products
2003 2004 2005 2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
Crude Oil
Exports
5,621
6,241
8,146
8,169
9,226
12,419
7,820 10,403
13,829
12,293
Imports
-3,928 -5,831
-6,797
-7,853
-9,057
-10,062
-7,362
-8,531 -11,154 -10,803
(X - M)
1,694
410
1,349
316
169
2,357
458
1,872
2,675
1,490
Oil Products
Exports
1,548
1,654
1,932 2,844
2,879
3,547
2,262
3,967
4,777
4,159
Imports
-3,583 -5,892 -10,646 -11,080 -12,787
-20,231 -11,129 -18,018 -28,134 -28,680
(X - M)
-2,035 -4,238 -8,714 -8,236
-9,908 -16,684
-8,876 -14,051 -23,357 -24,521
Total
Exports
7,169
7,896 10,078 11,013 12,105
15,966 10,082
14,370
18,606
16,452
Imports
-7,510 -11,724 -17,443 -18,933 -21,844
-30,293 -18,491 -26,549 -39,288 -39,483
(X - M)
342
-3,828
-7,365 -7,920
-9,739
-14,327
-8,409 -12,179 -20,682 -23,031
Source: BPS.
Trade balance of oil and gas
Source: Badan Pusat Statistik.
-15000 -10000 -5000 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
Oil & oil products
Gas
Oil & gas
Impor 13 gol. barang utama (CIF, juta US$)
Source: BPS.
No Golongan barang
2011
2012
1 Hasil minyak (Bahan Bakar Minyak)
28,134
28,680
2 Mesin dan peralatan mekanik
24,729
28,415
3 Mesin dan peralatan listrik
18,245
18,902
4 Minyak mentah
11,154
10,803
5 Besi dan baja
8,580
10,140
6 Kendaraan bermotor dan bagiannya
7,603
9,753
7 Plastik dan barang dari plastik
6,688
6,991
8 Bahan kimia organik
6,635
6,883
9 Barang dari besi dan baja
3,573
4,889
10 Kapal terbang dan bagiannya
3,421
4,495
11 Serealia
4,753
3,714
12 Gas
1,412
3,082
13 Sisa industri makanan
2,219
2,798
Belanja Pemerintah pusat
Sources: Kementerian Keuangan
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Belanja pegawai
Belanja Barang
Belanja modal
Bunga utang
Subsidi energi
Bantuan sosial
Alokasi subsidi pada RAPBN 2003
Sumber: Kementerian Keuangan
Jenis subsidi
Nilai (Rp tr.)
Persen
BBM
193.8
61.33
Listrik
80.9
25.60
Pangan
17.2
5.44
Pupuk
15.9
5.03
Benih
0.1
0.04
PSO
2.0
0.63
Kredit program
1.2
0.38
Pajak
4.8
1.52
Total
316.1
100.00
Heart beat has been appreciating ...
8,000
8,500
9,000
9,500
10,000
10,500
11,000
11,500
12,000
12,500
8-A pr 9-Sep 27 -J an 15 -J un 25 -O ct 13 -M ar 26 -J ul 14 -D ec 30 -A pr 11 -S ep 8-Feb 24 -J un 10 -N ov M ar -3 1 A ug -1 3 4-Ja n 18 -M ay 30 -S ep 11 -F eb 27 -J un 11 -N ov 26 -M ar 6-A ug D ec -2 1Source: Bank Indonesia
Economic temperature lower …
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
4.6
Source: BPS.Inflation returns 1 digit, y-o-y, %
Target BI: 4.5% + 1%
18.4
2006
14.6
2009
2010
7.0
2011
4.5
2012
2008
2007
2005
2003
2002
2004
-20
-18
-16
-14
-12
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
Source: BPS.Quarterly GDP growth, y-o-y, %
Crisis
peak
Gus Dur:
“Erratic/shaky”
Megawati:
Consolidation and
acceleration
SBY: Throws away
Momentum, and then made correction
4.
1
6.
8
6.
2
6.
4
7.
2
Indonesia’s post-crisis journey
6.
3
6.
Sector
2009 2010 2011 2012 Q1-12 Q2-12 Q3-12 Q4-12
Share
2012
Worker
2011
1. Agriculture
4.0
3.0
3.3
4.0
4.3
3.7
4.8
2.0
14.4
35.9
2. Mining
4.5
3.6
1.4
1.5
2.8
3.1
-0.1
0.5
11.8
1.3
3. Manufacturing
2.2
4.7
6.1
5.7
5.7
5.4
6.4
6.2
23.9
13.3
4. Utilities
14.3
5.3
4.4
6.4
6.2
6.2
5.6
7.2
0.8
0.2
5. Construction
7.1
7.0
6.7
7.5
7.4
7.4
8.0
7.8
10.4
5.8
6. Trade & hospitality
1.3
8.7
9.2
8.1
8.3
8.9
6.9
7.8
13.9
21.3
7. Transport & Comm.
15.8
13.4
10.7
10.0
10.3
10.1
10.5
9.6
6.7
4.6
8. Finance
5.2
5.7
6.9
7.2
6.3
7.0
7.4
7.7
7.3
2.4
9. Other Services
6.4
6.0
6.7
5.2
5.5
5.7
4.4
5.3
10.8
15.2
GDP/Total
4.6 6.2
6.5
6.2
6.3
6.4
6.2
6.1
100.0 100.0
Sources: BPS.
Source: BPS.
