Thursday, 15 September 2011
FOREX 14 September 2011 SELL AUDUSD at 1.0247
European Stocks Extended Prior Gain on China Speculation
Published : 2011-09-14 23:31:40Jakarta–European stocksrose for a second day amidspeculation Chinamay still buy theregion’s government bondseven afterPremier Wen Jiabaosaid indebted countries must not rely on bailouts.
BP Plcclimbed 4.5 percent after a report that an investigation into last year’sGulf of Mexico oil spillwill spread blame between the company and contractors.Next Plcrallied 6.7 percent after reporting increased earnings.Swedbank ABslid 4.4 percent after halting share buybacks due to the “intensified financial anxiety in Europe.”
The benchmarkStoxx Europe 600 Indexadvanced 0.8 percent to 222.64 at 3:32 p.m. in London. The gauge erased an earlier loss of as much as 1 percent after Caijing magazine reported that China is still willing to buy bonds of nations hit by the debt crisis, citing Zhang Xiaoqiang, a vice chairman of theNational Development and Reform Commission.
The comments from Zhang “may have eased worries about theEuropean debt crisis,” said Alexander Kraemer, a cross-asset strategist at Commerzbank AG in Frankfurt. “We may also see short covering ahead of the triple witching on Friday” when futures and options on European equity indexes are expire.
Debt Crisis
The Stoxx 600 has plunged 23 percent from this year’s peak in February as the debt crisis spreads from Greece to the larger economies of Italy, Spain and France. Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou is holding a conference call with German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Nicolas Sarkozy today amid increasing speculation that Greece will default. Spain is scheduled to sell debt tomorrow, after demand fell at an auction by Italy yesterday.
Wen, speaking at the World Economic Forum in Dalian, China, signaled that developed nations should cut deficits and create jobs rather than relying on China to bail out the world economy. Stocks gained in the U.S. on Sept. 12 after the Financial Times reported that Italy aims to sell “significant” quantities of bonds and stakes in strategic companies to China.[Blb/Fr/Dny]
Corn, Soybean Futures Called Lower on Economic Concern, not wheat
Published : 2011-09-14 23:20:50Jakarta–Corn futuresare called to open 3 cents to 5 cents a bushel lower on theChicago Board of Tradeon concern that a sagging global economy will reduce demand for food, livestock feed and fuel made from the grain, Jim Gerlach, the president of A/C Trading Inc. in Fowler, Indiana, said in a telephone interview.
Soybean futuresmay open 3 cents to 5 cents a bushel lower in Chicago as worldwide consumption ebbs, Gerlach said. Prices may rebound later on speculation that cold weather tomorrow may damage immature U.S. crops across the northern Midwest, he said. Soybean-oil futures are expected to open steady to down 0.1 cent a pound, and soybean-meal futures may open little changed.
Wheat futuresmay open steady to 3 cents a bushel higher on theCBOTon speculation that an emerging La Nina weather pattern will reduce global production next year, Gerlach said. Prices on theKansas City Board of Tradeand theMinneapolis Grain Exchangemay fall 2 cents to 5 cents as rain in the southern U.S. Great Plains in the next week might boost soil moisture for planting winter crops, he said.[Blb/Fr/Dny]
US Producer Price Index Little Changed In August
Published : 2011-09-14 23:09:33Jakarta – Theprices of U.S. goodsat the wholesale level were unchanged in August as another decline infuel costsoffset an increase in food, the government reported Wednesday.
The more closely followedcore producer price indexedged up 0.1 percent last month to mark the ninth straight increase, theLabor Departmentsaid today in Washington. The so-called core measure, which excludes volatile food and energy, rose 0.1 percent, less than forecast.
Economists surveyed by MarketWatch had predicted no increase in overall producer prices and a 0.2% increase in the core rate. Economists projected no change, according to the median estimate in a Bloomberg News survey.
Slowing growth overseas and in the U.S. is helping restrainraw-material costs,underscoringFederal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernankeview that price gains are “transitory.” Cooling prices make it easier for policy makers to take additional steps when they meet next week to keep the economy expanding.
US retail sales unchanged in August
Published : 2011-09-14 21:01:52Jakarta – Growth in retail sales stalled in August after a pitched battle over spending in Congress led consumer confidence to crumble, data showed on Wednesday.
Retail saleswere unchanged from a month earlier, a substantially weaker reading than the median forecast for a 0.2 percent rise in a Reuters poll. Sales growth during July was revised downward to 0.3 percent.
Consumer spendingaccounts for about two thirds of economic activity, and theCommerce Department datasuggests growth in the first two months of the third quarter was weaker than many economists expected.
Excluding autos,sales increased 0.1 percent in August, below forecasts for a 0.3 percent gain. Sales of motor vehicles and parts fell 0.3 percent. An increase in sales of electronics, gasoline and food were balanced with drops in purchases of cars, furniture and clothes. Spending at restaurants and bars also dipped. Consumer confidence plunged in August after a bruising battle over the U.S. budget slammed stock prices and pushed the nation to the brink of default.
Congress let a debate over spending go down to the wire early last month, nearly leaving the government unable to pay its bills. The country's debt was then downgraded by a major rating agency.
Stripping out sales of gasoline, autos and building materials, so-called core retail sales rose 0.1 percent in August, pointing to some resilience. Excluding the 0.3 percent rise in gasoline sales, retail sales were flat.
US economic growthslowed sharply in the first half of the year, and pressure on theFederal Reservehas been increasing for the central bank to do more to boost growth.[RttNews/Fr/Dny]
Wall Street tries to photocopy Europe's confidence
Published : 2011-09-14 20:28:05Jakarta–US index futuressuggest a slightly positive opening forWall Street stockson Wednesday, as traders react to the developments on theEuropean sovereign debt crisisand remain apprehensive about a keyUS consumer spending datato be released later in the day. Earlier in the global trading day, a downgrade of two of French banks by Moody's unsettled the markets despite the move being widely expected.
As part of official efforts to alleviate the debt crisis in Europe,US Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithneris scheduled to take part in ameetingofEuropean Financial finance ministers in Poland. Geithner is expected to call for an increase in the size of the European Financial Stability Facility.
Meanwhile,German Chancellor Angela Merkel, French President Nicolas Sarkozy andGreek Prime Minister George Papandreou are due to have a teleconference to discuss ways to resolve the crisis the Mediterranean nation is facing due to its fiscal profligacy.
In early morning local time, theDow Jones futures indexare up 3 points, theS&P 500 futures indexare adding 1.40 points and theNasdaq 100 futures indexare moving up 4 points. US stocks extended their uneasy advance on Tuesday due to a lack of further negative news flow on theEuropean sovereign debt crisis. The markets were supported to some extent by the firming up of commodities.
TheCommerce Departmentis set to release itsretail sales reportfor August at 8:30 am ET. For August, economists estimate 0.2 percent increase in retail sales, and excluding autos, sales may have risen 0.3 percent. At the same time, theLabor Departmentis scheduled to release itsproducer prices reportfor August. Economists expect the headline index for August to show a 0.1 percent drop, but the core producer price index is expected to have risen by 0.2 percent.
TheCommerce Departmentis scheduled to release itsbusiness inventories reportfor July at 10 am ET. The report is expected to show a 0.5 percent increase in business inventories for the month.
Additionally, theEnergy Information Administrationis scheduled to release itsweekly petroleum inventory reportfor the week ended September 9th at 10:30 am ET. TheAmerican Petroleum Institute'sinventory reportreleased late Tuesday showed thatcrude oil stockpilesfell by 5.05 million barrels in the week ended September 9th, while gasoline inventories climbed by 2.76 million barrels.[RttNews/Fr/Dny]
Hong Kong and China shares pared early losses, defensives lead gains
Published : 2011-09-14 20:14:11Financeroll–Hong Kong shares reversed early losses to snap a three-session losing streak on Wednesday, as gains in defensive sectors outweighed losses in insurance and casino stocks, with some funds seeking to lock gains in an increasingly bearish market.
in almost two weeks. China Mobile was its top boost, gaining 2.6 percent, while Power Assets gained 2.3 percent.
Insurers and Macau casino counters,sectors that had held up this year, joined cyclical sectors such as materials in the leg-down on Wednesday, suggesting skittish investors were looking to protect gains where they could.
AIA Group Ltd,the top drag on the Hang Seng benchmark, sank 4.5 percent to its lowest since March. The stock is still up more than 8 percent on the year to date, compared with the Hang Seng, which is down more than 17 percent.
MGM China Holdings Ltdled losses among its Macau casino peers, shedding 3.7 percent in twice its 30-day average volume. It is still up more than 12 percent this year. Sands China Ltd and Galaxy Entertainment Group Ltd each lost almost 2 percent.
The Hang Seng Composite Index for Materials was down 3.63 percent, with Jiangxi Copper Co Ltd shedding almost 2 percent to close at its lowest in a year.
In mainland,Shanghai Composite Indexclosed up 0.6 percent at 2,484.8 after sinking to a 14-month trough in early trade. The A-share turnover lingered at a low level comparable with much of the last fortnight. Investors remained cautious after Premier Wen affirmed China's tight monetary policy despite data showing inflation falling in August from a three-year high.
Utilities names led the rebound in the afternoon, underscoring that caution. The Shanghai utilities sub-index was up 1 percent, with China Unicom up 3.2 percent and China Shenhua Energy Co Ltd up 0.6 percent. Material and other cyclical names limited gains on the day. Anhui Conch Cement Co Ltd cut early losses to shed 1.8 percent, hitting its lowest since late January this year at one point.[Reuters/Fr/Dny]
Nikkei ended down to more than 2 years closing low
Published : 2011-09-14 19:16:06Financeroll– TheNikkei averageskidded more than 1 percent on Wednesday to a fresh 2-1/2 year closing low, as persistent worries about theEuropean debt crisis raised fears of more losses ahead and prompted investors to take profits on the previous session's gains.
US stock futuresfell as investors awaited aconference callplanned betweenFrench President Nicolas Sarkozy, German Chancellor Angela Merkeland Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou later on Wednesday. That suggested investors were positioning for no substantive progress on the debt situation to emerge from the call.
Chinese Premier Wen Jiabaofailed to allay concerns about the euro zone when he said on Wednesday that China remains willing to invest in Europe but wants rich economies to show they are serious about tackling debt.
This selling hit shares with European exposure, such as Canon Inc, which dropped 4.1 percent to 3,295 yen. Sony Corp pared its morning gains but still managed to add 0.3 percent to 1,501 yen, after it said it would launch its new PlayStation Vita handheld games device on December 17 in Japan, kicking off a global rollout.
Sharp Corp rose 3.3 percent to 595 yen after the consumer electronics maker projected on Tuesday that its sales in Indonesia would rise 27 percent to 58.5 billion yen ($761 million) this financial year.
Ricoh Co dropped 1.7 percent to 648 yen after Macquarie Securities cut its target price to 600 yen from 900 yen, citing possible weaker demand for the replacement of photocopiers in the second half of the fiscal year.
It insisted it will not reduce the price in the face of discounting by rival Nintendo, whose shares erased an earlier rise and finished down 1.4 percent at 12,150 yen.
Bank shares weakened even after Bank of Japan board member Ryuzo Miyao said on Wednesday that Japanese banks' exposure to European debt is limited.Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Grouplost 1.8 percent to 325 yen,Mizuho Financial Groupwas down 0.9 percent at 111 yen and Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group declined 1.6% to 2,072 yen.
The benchmarkNikkeiended down 1.1 percent at 8,518.57, its lowest close since 8,493.77 marked on April 28, 2009. The broaderTopix indexdropped 1.1 percent to 741.69.
Trade was fairly light as many fund managers were attending a Bank of America Merrill Lynch investment conference. Volume on the Tokyo Stock Exchange's main board came to 1.80 billion shares, slightly shy of last week's daily average of 1.82 billion.[Reuters/Fr/Dny]
French banks downgraded made Australian share slide
Published : 2011-09-14 17:45:48Financeroll–Australian sharemarket plunged to just above 4000 points today after France's top banks were downgraded on fears theEuropean debt crisiswas worsening.
TheAll Ordinaries indexfell 1.6 percent after theMoody'sratings agency slashed the ratings forSociete GeneraleandCredit Agricoleover its huge exposure to the Greek debt mountain.Moody'salso left France's biggest bankBNP Paribason negative watch.Credit Agricole’s rating slid from Aa1 to Aa2 whileSociété Généralewas cut from Aa2 to Aa3. Shares in all three banks have plummeted in recent weeks as the turbulence caused by the euro zone debt crisis rocked global share markets.
The benchmarkS&P/ASX200 indexclosed down 66.9 points, or 1.6 percent, at 4,005.8 while the broaderAll Ordinaries indexshed 68 points, by 1.6 percent, to 4,090.4. On the ASX 24, the September share price index futures contract fell 74 points at 4,007 points, with 121,402 contracts traded.
Shaw Stockbroking senior dealer Jamie Spiteri said local shares had fallen in line with other Asian markets and the US futures market on the reports that ratings agency Moody's downgraded European banks because of their exposure to a Greek default.
Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao's promise to increase the country’s investment in the eurozone was also tempered, making a bailout seem less likely to investors, Mr Spiteri said.
In local trade, health care stocks took the brunt of the downward trend, losing three percent. The sector was led lower by Cochlear, which was the worst performer on the S&P/ASX 100, losing 14.6 percent to $51.30, with investors still reeling two days after the company announced it was recalling a range of unimplanted hearing implants.
Financials lost 1.9 percent, with all the major retail banks falling at the close.Commonwealth Bankshed 2.5 percent,Westpaclost 2 percent,National Australia Bankfell three percent andANZslumped 1.6 percent. The best performing stock on the S&P/ASX100 index was iron ore producer Atlas Iron, up five cents, or 1.47 percent, at $3.46.[HeraldSun/Fr/Dny]
China and US raise alarm on euro debt crisis
Published : 2011-09-14 14:47:12Financeroll- China and the United States urged Europe's leaders to prevent the euro area debt mess from spreading, underlining the international alarm over a crisis now threatening Italy, the zone's third-biggest economy.
President Barack Obama urged "more effective coordinated fiscal policy" by the euro area states. Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao said Beijing was willing to help its biggest trading partner, but added that Europe must stop the crisis from growing.
Investors are increasingly skeptical the debt debacle in the 17-nation currency area can be resolved. Credit markets are factoring in a 90 percent chance Greece will default on its debts and they demanded the highest risk premium on Italian five-year bonds at auction on Tuesday since the country joined the euro in 1999.
"What we have to take note of now is to prevent the sovereign debt crises from spreading and expanding further," Wen said on Wednesday.
Trying to contain the crisis, Italy is expected to approve a 54-billion-euro (47 billion pound) austerity package on Wednesday, although news of the measures has so far done little to reverse investor alarm over whether the country can manage its debts.
Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi's government has tabled a confidence motion which would force it to resign if it lost. An initial vote is scheduled for around 8 a.m. EDT ahead of final approval of the austerity package around 2 p.m. EDT.
Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou will hold a conference call on Wednesday with French President Nicolas Sarkozy and German Chancellor Angela Merkel. The call is scheduled for 12 p.m., Papandreou's office said.
A rebound in stock prices and the euro stalled in Asia on Wednesday as investors remained spooked about a crisis that has also roiled French banks because of their debt exposure to both Greece and Italy, raising fears of a fresh banking crisis.
A combination of a banking crisis akin to the global credit crunch, a Greek default and a financial meltdown in Italy could tear the euro zone apart.
"I think there is a possibility, if the wrong steps are taken, that the system goes off the rails," Sergio Marchionne, the CEO of Italian carmaker Fiat, told reporters in Frankfurt when asked if the euro's survival was at risk.
Merkel on Tuesday sought to quash talk of an imminent Greek default or its exit from the euro zone. Confused statements from Germany and France over whether they would issue a joint statement on Greece sent markets gyrating up and then down on Tuesday.
Greece has said it would run out of cash in a few weeks and needs an 8 billion euro tranche in October to pay wages and pensions.
Merkel said in a radio interview that Europe was doing everything in its power to avoid a Greek default and urged politicians in her own coalition to weigh their words carefully to avoid creating turmoil on financial markets.
Her economy minister said earlier this week there should be no taboos in stabilizing the euro, including an orderly bankruptcy of Greece. And lawmakers from her coalition have said in recent days that Greece may have to leave the euro zone -- a move Citigroup's chief economist warned would lead to "financial and economic disaster." (reuters)
Blejer: Greece should ‘default big’
Published : 2011-09-14 11:41:31Financeroll- Mario Blejer, who managed Argentina’s central bank in the aftermath of the world’s biggest sovereign default, said Greece should halt payments on its debt to stop a deterioration of the economy that threatens the European Union.
“This debt is unpayable,” Blejer, who was also an adviser to Bank of England Governor Mervyn King from 2003 to 2008, said in an interview in Buenos Aires. “Greece should default, and default big. A small default is worse than a big default and also worse than no default.”
World Bank and International Monetary officials will meet in Washington Sept. 23-25 as European Union officials work to keep the currency union from unraveling and the Greek crisis worsens. Europe is facing “a full-blown banking crisis” said Mohamed El-Erian, chief executive officer of Pacific Investment Management Co., in an interview yesterday.
economy in coming years and stifle growth, Blejer said. A Greek default would push Portugal to do the same and would put Ireland “under tremendous pressure to at least symbolically default” on some of its debt, he added.
“It’s totally ridiculous what is going on,” Blejer, 63, said. “If you assume that these countries do everything that is in the program, they do all these adjustments and privatizations, at the end of 2012 debt-to-GDP will be bigger than this year.”
The statements by Blejer, who ran Argentina’s central bank in the months after its default on $95 billion in debt, put him at odds with German Chancellor Angela Merkel, who said the risks of contagion from a Greek default are too big and that an “uncontrolled insolvency” would further agitate turbulent global markets.
German coalition officials stepped up their criticism of Greece last week after a delegation from the European Commission, European Central Bank and IMF suspended a report on progress made in Athens toward meeting the terms of its rescue program. The delay threatened to derail a payment to Greece due next month.
“It doesn’t make sense to give money to Greece so Greece can pay the Germans back,” Blejer said when asked about the aid programs. “All these projects, all the euro projects don’t make sense economically.” (bloomberg)
Asian shares gain as European concern easing
Published : 2011-09-14 10:59:44Financeroll - Asian stocks swung between gains and losses as oil companies advanced on higher crude prices, countering declines by Japanese utilities.
BHP Billiton Ltd., Australia’s No. 1 oil producer, climbed 0.6 percent in Sydney after crude prices advanced, while Chinese oil explorer Cnooc Ltd. gained 2.2 percent in Hong Kong. Wynn Macau Ltd. jumped 4.4 percent after a brokerage boosted the stock’s investment rating. Tokyo Electric Power Co. slumped 3.9 percent on speculation Japan’s new trade minister may take a tougher stance on power monopolies, leading utilities lower. Korean Air Lines Co. fell 3.1 percent after Goldman Sachs Group Inc. cut its rating on the stock.
The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell 0.2 percent to 118.04 as of 11:11 a.m. in Tokyo after earlier rising and falling as much as 0.3 percent. The measure slumped 8.6 percent last month, the most since May 2010, amid concern global economic growth is slowing as Europe’s sovereign-debt crisis spreads and after Standard & Poor’s cut the U.S. government’s credit rating.
“We’ve seen stocks bounce around a lot, with all eyes still on Europe,” said Matt Riordan, who helps manage close to $6.6 billion in Sydney at Paradice Investment Management Pty. “The key from here is how governments manage the downside, in terms of how they restructure Greek debt and shore up their banks. The risk beyond this is to what extent this spreads into some of the larger countries.”
Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Average slid 0.2 percent, reversing an earlier gain of 0.6 percent. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index climbed 0.3 percent. South Korea’s Kospi Index dropped 1.3 percent after being closed for the past two days, when the MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell 2.1 percent.
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index advanced 0.8 percent, while China’s Shanghai Composite Index climbed 0.5 percent.
Futures on the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index slid 0.2 percent today. In New York, the index advanced for a second day, rising 0.9 percent yesterday, after BNP Paribas SA, France’s biggest bank, and Societe Generale SA, the country’s No. 3 lender by assets, rebounded in Paris trading after rejecting concerns over their access to funding.
The MSCI Asia Pacific Index declined 14 percent this year through yesterday, compared with a 6.7 percent drop by the S&P 500 and a 20 percent loss by the Stoxx Europe 600 Index. (bloomberg)
Dollar fell as U.S Stocks gain.
Published : 2011-09-14 05:53:22Financeroll - The dollar fell Tuesday as U.S. stocks gained, indicating some calming of fears about European debt. After bouncing around in a narrow range through the European and Asian sessions, the dollar index, fell to 76.925 from 77.543 in late North American trading on Monday.
The dollar has gone back when stocks sell off. German stocks also recovered from earlier declines, but some analysts noted the euro has held in a tight range and needs more positive news about debt or economic growth in the region to break higher.
At this month, the euro has lost about 4.5% against the dollar as worries about European debt keep popping up and the European Central Bank has hinted it may be done raising interest rates, effectively pulling out a major support for the Euro.
During the European session, the Euro dipped after Italy had to pay a higher yield to sell five-year bonds as demand for its debt shrank from the last auction. Earlier, reports that China may step in to buy Italian bonds helped calm market nerves frayed by Europe’s ongoing debt woes.
The euro dropped to ¥103.88, its lowest level since mid-2001. However, after the reports about possible Chinese investment in Italy, the euro recovered. It lately traded at ¥105.32, turning up slightly compared to ¥105.06 in the previous session.
Also against the yen, the dollar bought ¥76.88, slipping from ¥77.37 Monday. The British pound eased to $1.5799, off from $1.5816. The euro rose to $1.3702, from $1.3586 late in the previous session. (MW/L8)
Financeroll - Chinese banks could see a rise in delinquent loans and the quality of their assets may deteriorate in the next few years, an analyst at Fitch Ratings said in New York Tuesday.
There has been a rise in off-balance sheet activity by Chinese banks and some of these items are becoming increasingly difficult to track, said Charlene Chu, a senior director for Fitch, speaking at an event organized by the ratings agency.
Chu pointed to moves by Chinese banks to take credit assets, move them off their balance sheets into investment products and then sell them. Some off-balance-sheet items aren't clearly disclosed.
"The undisclosed items is where things get extremely confusing," Chu said. Fitch says that the credit risk in the Chinese financial system has risen from an overextension of loans to local governments and to the property sector.
Fitch has previously said that it expects China's government to intervene to support the country's banks, but warned that this support "carries negative implications for the sovereign rating.". (MW/L8)
Daily Outlook - Trade Strategy
Published : 2011-09-15 06:20:44TRADING STRATEGY
Hangseng Futures
Trend direction Bearish
1 2 3
Resistant 19308 19625 19978
Support 18638 18285 17968
Stop loss Target profit
Buy area 18860 18760 19060
Sell area 19189 19289 19000
Nikkei Futures
Trend direction Bullish
1 2 3
Resistant 8665 8735 8855
Support 8475 8355 8285
Stop loss Target profit
Buy area 8545 8445 8745
Sell area 8700 8800 8500
KOSPI Futures
Trend Direction Bearish
1 2 3
Resistance 231.23 236.41 240.03
Support 222.43 218.81 213.63
Stop Loss Target Profit
Buy Area 213.63 212.63 231.00
Sell Area 232.70 233.70 222.40
EURUSD
Trend direction Bearish
1 2 3
Resistant 1.3827 1.3902 1.4020
Support 1.3634 1.3516 1.3441
Stop loss Target profit
Buy area 1.3634 1.3574 1.3734
Sell area 1.3880 1.3930 1.3780
GBPUSD
Trend Direction Bearish
1 2 3
Resistance 1.5823 1.5873 1.5932
Stop Loss Target Profit
Buy Area 1.5605 1.5555 1.5705
Sell Area 1.5800 1.5850 1.5700
USDCHF
Trend direction Bearish
1 2 3
Resistant 0.8833 0.8906 0.8959
Support 0.8707 0.8654 0.8581
Stop loss Target profit
Buy area 0.8660 0.8610 0.8760
Sell area 0.8830 0.8880 0.8730
USDJPY
Trend Direction Sideways
1 2 3
Resistance 76.92 77.23 77.39
Support 76.45 76.29 75.98
Stop Loss Target Profit
Buy Area 76.33 75.73 77.33
Sell Area 77.00 77.50 76.50
XAUUSD (GOLD)
Trend direction Bullish
1 2 3
Resistant 1839.70 1860.10 1875.70
Support 1803.70 1788.10 1767.70
Stop loss Target profit
Buy area 1788.80 1780.00 1803.70
Sell area 1830.50 1840.70 1803.70
OIL
Trend Direction Bearish
1 2 3
Resistance 89.76 91.01 91.79
Support 87.73 86.88 85.70
Stop Loss Target Profit
Buy Area 86.60 86.10 87.60
Sell Area 88.98 89.50 87.98
Daily Outlook - Technical Analysis
Published : 2011-09-15 05:33:52By Mahdianto
ASIAN INDEX FUTURES
Nikkei Futures seems in bearish reversal trend with hanging man pattern on its Daily chart. Nikkei Futures next movement probability try to hit support at 8555 and if it success breaking support then next support target is 8440.(MT)
On Thursday, Hangseng Futures seems in bullish reversals trend with hammer pattern on its Daily chart. Hangseng Futures next movement probability try to hit resistant at 19063 and if it success breaking resistant then next resistant target is 19297.(MT)
Kospi Futures seems in bullish reversals trend with three black crow’s pattern on its Daily chart. Kospi Futures next movement probability try to hit resistant at 227.35 and if it success breaking resistant then next resistant target is 230.45.(MT)
FOREX
On Thursday, EURUSD seems bullish reversals trend with long shadow pattern on its Daily chart. EURUSD next movement probability try to hit resistant at 1.3794 and if it success breaking resistant then next resistant target is 1.3855.(MT)
GBPUSD seems bullish reversals trend with long legged doji pattern on its Daily chart. GBPUSD next movement probability try to hit resistant at 1.5808 and if it success breaking resistant then next target levels is 1.5900.(MT)
USDJPY seems in bearish continuation trend with three black crow’s pattern on its Daily chart. Yen next movement probability try to hit support at 76.37, and if it success breaking support then next target is 76.12. (MT)
COMMODITIES
XAUUSD seems in bearish reversals trend with dark cloud cover pattern on its Daily chart. Gold next movement probability try to hit support at 1812.50, and if it success breaking that level then next support target is 1796.90.(MT)
Oil seems in bearish reversals trend with bearish engulfing pattern on its Daily chart. Oil next movement probability try to hit support at 88.28, and if it success breaking support then next support target is 86.72.(MT)
Daily Outlook - Fundamental Analysis
Published : 2011-09-15 05:04:32By Mahdianto
STOCK INDEX
Asian stocks ended off lows on Wednesday, while Hong Kong rose, after German Chancellor Angela Merkel reportedly sought to ease fears over an imminent default for Greece. Fears of contagion and of another hit to European growth had first pressured Asian markets after ratings agency Moody’s downgraded two French banks.
Nikkei Futuresdown 1.14% on Wednesday to a fresh 2-1/2 year closing low, as persistent worries about the European debt crisis raised fears of more losses ahead and prompted investors to take profits on the previous session's gains. Chinese PM Wen Jiabao failed to allay concerns about the euro zone when he said on Wednesday that China remains willing to invest in Europe but wants rich economies to show they are serious about tackling debt. This selling hit shares with European exposure, such as Canon Inc , which dropped 4.1%.
KOSPI Futures down 3.52% on Wednesday extended falls as investors grew increasingly skeptical the debt crisis in the euro zone could be resolved. Losses were led by financials after news Moody's Investor Service on Wednesday downgraded credit ratings on Credit Agricole and Societe Generale SA by one notch, citing their exposure to the Greek economy. KB Financial Group dropped 7.2% and Woori Finance Holdings lost 8.8%. Shares in Samsung Card gave up earlier as much as 9% gains on news of its plans to sell a 20.64% stake in unlisted affiliate Samsung Everland through a block deal or initial public offering.
Hangseng Futures up 0.1%, reversed early losses to snap a three-session losing streak on Wednesday, as gains in defensive sectors outweighed losses in insurance and casino sectors, some funds seeking to lock gains in an increasingly bearish market. Hangseng Futures had slipped to its lowest levels in over two years, but bounced back after European stock futures opened higher in the afternoon on hopes of a euro zone bond plan that could ease the region's raging debt crisis.
Insurers and Macau casino counters, sectors that had held up this year, joined cyclical sectors such as materials in the leg-down on Wednesday, suggesting skittish investors were looking to protect gains where they could. AIA Group Ltd, the top drag on the Hang Seng benchmark, sank 4.5% to its lowest since March. The stock is still up more than 8% on the year to date, compared with the Hang Seng, which is down more than 17%.
U.S. stocks extended a third day of gains after German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Nicolas Sarkozy reportedly reaffirmed their support of Greece. Merkel, Sarkozy and Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou, who talked by conference call Wednesday, agreed Greece, will remain in the euro zone. They stood by decisions reached in July by European leaders that are meant to save Greece from a disorderly default
In corporate news, shares of Dell Inc. rose a day after the computer maker said it would add another $5 billion to a current stock-repurchase program totaling some $2.1 billion. On the economic front, retail sales were unchanged in August, according to the Commerce Department. Economists had expected a gain of 0.2%.
Dow Jones industrial average was up 1.27%. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index rose 1.35%. The Nasdaq Composite Index was up 1.60%.
Concerns over good deals from Europe, good perform from technology and retail sectors in Wall Street may lead Asian stock indices to go up on Thursday.
FOREX
The euro rose against the dollar on Wednesday as comments by the European Commission president raised hopes for the introduction of shared euro area bonds that could help contain the region's debt crisis. Also buoying the euro was a joint statement from German and French leaders following a conference call that they are convinced Greece's future is in the euro zone. The euro remained vulnerable though to a drop towards recent lows and some analysts reckoned it would be a struggle to get back above $1.3850. The euro rose after European Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso pledged the Commission would soon publish a long-promised study on introducing euro area bonds, viewed by some as a potential solution to sovereign debt concerns. Although the comments boosted riskier assets including stocks, market players remained wary after Barroso warned the move would not put an end to the crisis. Germany also remains firmly opposed to any such move.
U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner, who will attend a meeting of EU finance ministers in Poland on Friday, expressed confidence in the ability of euro zone leaders to resolve their debt crisis. But focus will switch back to the U.S. dollar next week when the U.S. central bank's Federal Open Market Committee meets, with any hints policymakers are considering another round of quantitative easing likely to weigh on the dollar. U.S. economic data on Wednesday did little to suggest the Fed is veering away from further monetary easing as retail sales and producer prices showed zero growth in August.
The dollar edged lower versus the yen to 76.63, within the 76.40/77.85 range of the last three weeks. Investors remained wary of possible intervention by Japan to weaken the yen, after the Swiss National Bank set a minimum target exchange rate in the euro versus the franc last week.
COMMODITIES
Bullion dropped as U.S. stocks zig-zagged in choppy trade after news of European Commission proposals for joint euro zone bonds, and potential aid for the euro area from the BRICS emerging economies -- Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa -- are considering offering help to the euro area.
Gold options' implied volatility -- a measure of how much traders expect prices to move, either up or down, in the future -- fell after rising to its highest in over two years on Monday. Gold losses slowed after U.S. data showed wholesale inflation slowed in August and retail sales stalled, after consumer confidence plunged.
Gold closed at 1819 or down from at 1833 on Tuesday.
Crude-oil futures fell on Wednesday, as concerns about the euro zone sovereign-debt crisis led to further pessimism about global economic growth and demand for oil. A boost from a sharp, deeper-than-expected decline in weekly inventories proved to be short-lived. The Energy Information Administration said earlier Wednesday U.S. oil inventories declined 6.7 million barrels in the week ended Sept. 9. Investors remain nervous about oil demand prospects following reduced estimates from forecasters, including the International Energy Agency, this week because of a weaker economic outlook.
Oil settled at 88.51 or down from 89.80 in Tuesday.
GMT
Currency
Event
Volume
Actual
Forecast Previous
Wed Sep 14 00:30 AUD AUD Westpac Consumer Confidence medium 8.1% -3.5% 00:30 AUD AUD Westpac Consumer Confidence Index low 96.9 89.6
01:30 AUD AUD Dwelling Starts medium -4.7% 2.0% 3.3%
03:00 NZD NZD Non Resident Bond Holdings low 62.5% 60.1%
04:00 JPY JPY Tokyo Condominium Sales (YoY) low 1.7% -1.3%
04:30 JPY JPY Industrial Production (MoM) low 0.4% 0.6%
04:30 JPY JPY Industrial Production (YoY) medium -3.0% -2.8%
04:30 JPY JPY Capacity Utilization (MoM) low 0.6% 5.2%
06:00 JPY JPY Machine Tool Orders (YoY) medium 15.2% 15.3%
07:15 CHF CHF Producer & Import Prices (MoM) low -0.4% -0.7% 07:15 CHF CHF Producer & Import Prices (YoY) low -1.1% -0.6%
08:30 GBP GBP Claimant Count Rate medium 4.9% 5.0% 4.9%
08:30 GBP GBP Jobless Claims Change high 20.3K 35.0K 33.7K
08:30 GBP GBP Average Weekly Earnings (3M/YoY) medium 2.8% 2.7% 2.7% 08:30 GBP GBP Weekly Earnings exBonus (3M/YoY) low 2.1% 2.1% 2.3% 08:30 GBP GBP ILO Unemployment Rate (3M) medium 7.9% 7.9% 7.9% 09:00 EUR EUR Euro-Zone Industrial Production s.a. (MoM) low 1.0% 1.5% -0.8% 09:00 EUR EUR Euro-Zone Industrial Production w.d.a.
(YoY) medium 4.2% 4.6% 2.6%
11:00 USD USD MBA Mortgage Applications low 6.3% -4.9%
12:30 USD USD Retail Sales Less Autos medium 0.1% 0.2% 0.5%
12:30 USD USD Advance Retail Sales high 0.0% 0.2% 0.5%
12:30 USD USD Producer Price Index Ex Food & Energy
(YoY) medium 2.5% 2.6% 2.5%
12:30 USD USD Producer Price Index (YoY) medium 6.5% 6.5% 7.2% 12:30 USD USD Producer Price Index Ex Food & Energy
(MoM) low 0.1% 0.2% 0.4%
12:30 USD USD Producer Price Index (MoM) low 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 12:30 CAD CAD Capacity Utilization Rate low 78.4% 78.0% 79.0%
14:00 USD USD Business Inventories medium 0.4% 0.5% 0.3%
14:30 USD USD DOE U.S. Gasoline Inventories low -500K 199K
14:30 USD USD DOE U.S. Distillate Inventory low 700K 709K
14:30 USD USD DOE U.S. Crude Oil Inventories low -3000K -3963K 21:00 NZD NZD Reserve Bank of New Zealand Rate
Decision high 2.50% 2.50% 2.50%
22:30 NZD NZD Business NZ Performance of
Manufacturing Index medium 53.2
Thu Sep 15 CNY CNY Actual FDI medium 19.8%
01:30 AUD AUD New Motor Vehicle Sales (MoM) low 8.6%
01:30 AUD AUD New Motor Vehicle Sales (YoY) low 0.9%
01:30 AUD AUD RBA Foreign Exchange Transaction
(Australian dollar) low 605M
07:15 CHF CHF Industrial Production (QoQ) medium 3.0% -9.2%
07:15 CHF CHF Industrial Production (YoY) medium 2.7% 5.0%
07:30 CHF CHF Swiss National Bank Rate Decision high 0.0% 0.00% 08:00 EUR EUR Italian Consumer Price Index - EU
Harmonized (YoY) low 2.2% 2.2%
08:00 EUR EUR Italian Consumer Price Index - EU
Harmonized (MoM) low 0.3% 0.3%
08:00 EUR EUR Italian Consumer Price Index (NIC incl.
tobacco) (YoY) low 2.8% 2.8%
08:00 EUR EUR Italian Consumer Price Index (NIC incl.
tobacco) (MoM) low 0.3% 0.3%
08:00 EUR EUR ECB Publishes Sept. Monthly Report high
08:30 GBP GBP Retail Sales (MoM) low -0.2% 0.2%
08:30 GBP GBP Retail Sales (YoY) medium -0.2% -0.2%
08:30 GBP GBP Retail Sales w/Auto Fuel (MoM) low -0.3% 0.2% 08:30 GBP GBP Retail Sales w/Auto Fuel (YoY) medium -0.1% 0.0%
09:00 EUR EUR Italian Current Account (euros) low -4252M
09:00 EUR EUR Euro-Zone Employment (YoY) low 0.1%
09:00 EUR EUR Euro-Zone Employment (QoQ) low 0.1%
09:00 EUR EUR Euro-Zone Consumer Price Index (YoY) high 2.5% 2.5% 09:00 EUR EUR Euro-Zone Consumer Price Index (MoM) medium 0.2% -0.6% 09:00 EUR EUR Euro-Zone Consumer Price Index - Core
(YoY) high 1.2% 1.2%
12:30 USD USD Continuing Claims low 3705K 3717K
12:30 USD USD Initial Jobless Claims low 411K 414K
12:30 USD USD Empire Manufacturing low -4.00 -7.72
12:30 USD USD Consumer Price Index n.s.a. medium 226.267 225.922 12:30 USD USD Consumer Price Index Core Index s.a. medium 225.463 12:30 USD USD Consumer Price Index Ex Food & Energy
(YoY) high 1.9% 1.8%
12:30 USD USD Consumer Price Index (YoY) high 3.6% 3.6%
12:30 USD USD Current Account Balance low -$122.9B -$119.3B
12:30 USD USD Consumer Price Index Ex Food & Energy
(MoM) medium 0.2% 0.2%
12:30 USD USD Consumer Price Index (MoM) medium 0.2% 0.5%
12:30 CAD CAD Manufacturing Shipments (MoM) low 1.5% -1.5%
13:15 USD USD Capacity Utilization low 77.5% 77.5%
13:15 USD USD Industrial Production medium 0.1% 0.9%
13:45 USD USD Bloomberg Economic Expectations low -34
13:45 USD USD Bloomberg Consumer Comfort low -34
14:00 USD USD Philadelphia Fed. medium -15.0 -30.7
