Morning Brief
Daily | Nov 01 2017
IHSG (Jakarta Composite Index)
Oct 31 6,005.78
Chg +31.71pts (+0.53%)
Volume (bn shares) 91.78
Value (IDR tn) 8.82
Adv 150 Dec 183 Unc 237 Untr 130
Foreign Transaction
(IDR bn)Buy 3,876
Sell 3,359
Net Buy (Sell) 516
Top Buy NB Val. Top Sell NS Val.
BBRI 223.86 TLKM 139.82
BBCA 160.07 ACES 41.28
BMRI 107.19 BBNI 39.52
UNVR 44.84 LPKR 19.23
UNTR 42.28 ITMG 13.06
LQ-45 Index
Top Gainers & LosersGainers % Losers % INTP 4.9% BMTR -4.1% GGRM 3.4% BUMI -3.0% AKRA 2.8% WSKT -1.4% SMRA 2.5% PGAS -1.3% BBCA 2.3% MNCN -1.3%
Government Bond Yield & FX
Last Chg. Tenor: 10 year 6.7970% -0.03% USD/IDR 13,563.00 -0.14% KRW/IDR 12.13 0.46%Global Indexes
Index Last Chg. % Dow Jones 23,377.24 28.50 0.12% S&P 500 2,575.26 2.43 0.09% Nasdaq 6,727.67 28.71 0.43% FTSE 100 7,493.08 5.27 0.07% CAC 40 5,503.29 9.66 0.18% DAX 13,229.57 12.03 0.09% Nikkei 22,011.61 (0.06) 0.00% Hang Seng 28,245.54 (90.65) -0.32% Shanghai 3,393.34 3.01 0.09% KOSPI 2,523.43 21.50 0.86% EIDO 26.70 0.24 0.91%Commodities
Commodity Last Chg. %Gold (USD /troy oz.) 1,271.5 (4.8) -0.38%
Crude Oil (USD /bbl) 54.38 0.23 0.42%
Coal Newcas(USD/ton) 99.90 0.50 0.50%
Gas (USD /mmbtu) 2.90 0.50 -2.36%
Nickel LME (USD /MT) 12,295 620.0 5.31%
CPO (MYR/Ton) 2,815 (24.0) -0.85%
Indonesian Market Recap
IHSG menguat kemarin ditopang oleh rilis kinerja perusahaan serta estimasi Bank Indonesia terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi 2017 yang lebih baik.
Top Gainers : Basic Industry (+2.00%), Consumer (+1.23%), Finance (+0.72%)
Today’s Outlook: Inflasi Semakin Melambat
Untuk hari ini kami mengestimasi IHSG untuk bergerak menguat dengan support
range 5979-5983 dan resistance range 6034-6038. Dari global sentimen datang
dari rapat bulanan The Fed yang nanti malam akan diakhiri dengan pengumuman suku bunga acuan. Diperkirakan suku bunga akan tetap walau kenaikan diperkirakan terjadi pada Desember. Dari domestik sentimen positif muncul datang dari rilis inflasi pada Oktober. Diperkirakan inflasi Oktober akan melambat menjadi 3,67% dari 3,72% pada September.
JCI Movement
JCI - one month Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg
JCI - intraday
Stocks Recommendation (details on the next page)
Trading Buy: INCO, ADRO, INTP
Global Market
United States
Bursa Amerika ditutup naik tadi malam. Investor bersiap menantikan agenda pertemuan bulanan the Fed dan pengumuman Fed Chair yang baru.
Europe
Bursa Eropa menguat kemarin. Investor mencerna rilis terbaru dari kinerja perusahaan serta berita terkait kemerdekaan Catalonia.
Asia
Bursa Asia bergerak variatif kemarin. Investor mencerna rilis data resmi Manufaktur PMI China yang lebih rendah dari estimasi.
Company News
SMAR : Catatkan Penjualan Bersih Rp25,78 Triliun KINO : Bentuk 2 Joint Venture
ASII : Laba Bersih Tumbuh 26% MAPI : Pendapatan Naik 13,5%
Domestic & Global News
Bank Indonesia Estimasi Pertumbuhan PDB 5,15% Trump Berharap Parlemen Setujui Reformasi Pajak
Indonesia Economic Data
Monthly Indicator Last Prev. BI 7 Day Rev Repo Rate 4.25% 4.25%FX Reserve (USD bn) 129.40 128.79
Trd Balance (USD bn) 1.76 1.72
Exports Yoy 15.60% 19.24%
Imports Yoy 13.13% 8.89%
Inflation Yoy 3.72% 3.82%
Quarterly Indicator Last Prev.
Real GDP 5.01% 4.94%
Current Acc (USD bn) (4.96) (2.10)
Govt Spending Yoy -1.93% -4.05%
FDI (USD bn) 5.79 (7.71)
Business Confidence 111.63 106.70
Stocks Recommendation
INCO Last = 2940
Analysis Harga nikel dunia melonjak 5,3% ke posisi tertinggi dalam 2 tahun dipicu oleh ekspektasi booming pada produksi mobil elektrik.
Range 2880 – 3140
Action Trading Buy. Cut Loss If Below 2880
ADRO Last = 1825
Analysis Laba bersih ADRO pada 3Q17 tumbuh 72% y-y ditopang oleh lonjakan penjualan sebesar 48% y-y.
Range 1790 – 1935
Action Trading Buy. Cut Loss If Below 1790
INTP Last = 22450
Analysis INTP mulai mencatatkan rebound pada laba bersih setelah pada 3Q17 membukukan laba sebesar Rp504,6 miliar (+23% q-q).
Range 22150 - 25025
Action Trading buy. Cut Loss If Below 22150
Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg
Source: Bloomberg
Sector Rotation
Source: Bloomberg
Relative Rotation Graph - Last 10 Days
98 99 100 101 102 103 96 97 98 99 100 101 102 103 104 105 Agriculture Mining Infrastructure Basic Ind. Consumer Finance Misc Ind. Trade Property
Lagging
Improving
Leading
Weakening
Relative Valuation
Source: Bloomberg Last Price End of Last Year Price YTD Change (%) 1 Year Change (%) Market Cap (IDR tn) Price / BVPS Price / EPS (TTM) EV/ EBITDA (TTM) Return on Equity (%) EVA Spread (%) Dividend Yield TTM (%) Sales Growth Yoy (%) EPS Growth Yoy (%) Adjusted Beta JCI Index 13.4 10.9 6,670.0 Finance 1,913.4 BBCA 20,900 15,500 34.8 35.3 515.3 4.0 23.1 N/A 18.9 6.4 1.0 8.6 14.4 0.9 BBRI 15,600 11,675 33.6 27.6 384.8 2.4 13.7 N/A 18.6 12.0 2.7 9.7 4.0 1.3 BMRI 7,050 5,788 21.8 23.4 329.0 2.0 19.5 N/A 10.8 2.5 1.9 6.5 (32.1) 1.3 BBNI 7,600 5,525 37.6 37.6 141.7 1.5 10.3 N/A 15.3 0.7 2.8 15.2 25.3 1.2 BDMN 5,100 3,710 37.5 34.2 48.9 1.3 15.3 N/A 8.6 0.5 1.9 (7.9) 11.5 1.3 BBTN 2,760 1,740 58.6 44.5 29.2 1.4 9.7 N/A 15.5 (2.1) 1.8 14.6 41.1 0.8 BJBR 2,450 3,390 (27.7) 56.1 23.8 2.5 20.1 N/A 12.5 (0.7) 3.6 5.6 (16.2) 0.7 BJTM 695 570 21.9 31.1 10.4 1.4 8.6 N/A 17.8 3.7 6.3 2.5 16.2 1.3 Consumer 1,429.8 HMSP 3,980 3,830 3.9 (0.3) 462.9 15.0 35.7 25.7 42.2 27 2.7 7.2 18.2 1.1 UNVR 49,600 38,800 27.8 11.6 378.4 77.1 56.3 38.9 137.1 128.0 1.7 9.8 9.4 1.2 GGRM 70,000 63,900 9.5 2.9 134.7 3.4 18.0 11.1 19.4 6.2 3.7 8.4 3.7 1.2 ICBP 8,800 8,575 2.6 (4.3) 102.6 5.7 31.2 17.5 21.9 17.1 1.8 8.6 20.0 1.5 KLBF 1,600 1,515 5.6 (7.8) 75.0 5.9 31.6 20.9 19.8 5.2 1.4 8.3 14.7 1.2 INDF 8,200 7,925 3.5 (3.5) 72.0 2.4 18.2 N/A 14.5 (3.0) 2.9 4.2 47.8 1.2 ROTI 1,270 1,600 (20.6) (21.6) 7.9 4.5 37.0 20.3 12.6 (0.8) 1.1 16.0 3.5 0.9 Infrastructure 779.23 TLKM 4,030 3,962 1.7 (3.6) 406.2 4.4 17.7 6.7 25.9 12.2 4.9 13.5 24.4 1.1 PGAS 1,840 2,700 (31.9) (27.0) 44.6 1.1 19.6 9.3 5.1 (5.7) 4.1 (4.4) (23.5) 1.3 JSMR 6,500 4,320 50.5 42.6 47.2 3.3 23.2 14.3 15.5 (3.1) 1.2 69.2 28.7 1.0 EXCL 3,380 2,310 46.3 54.3 36.1 1.7 124.7 6.6 1.4 (11.3) N/A (6.7) N/A 1.0 TBIG 6,800 4,980 36.5 13.8 30.8 22.7 32.7 15.5 55.3 (0.9) 2.2 8.5 (6.3) 0.8 Trade 753.9 UNTR 34,675 21,250 63.2 55.7 129.3 3.0 19.7 9.6 16.3 ####### 1.9 (7.7) 29.8 1.3 LPPF 8,600 15,125 (43.1) (49.0) 25.1 12.9 13.1 9.1 112.1 69.2 5.6 9.9 13.3 1.4 SCMA 2,150 2,800 (23.2) (17.0) 31.4 7.9 20.9 14.6 39.7 22.6 1.7 6.8 (1.5) 0.8 AKRA 7,450 6,000 24.2 8.4 29.8 4.1 31.6 24.6 17.8 (3.5) 2.0 (23.0) (3.0) 0.9 MNCN 1,560 1,755 (11.1) (24.6) 22.3 2.4 18.7 9.7 12.9 (0.4) 2.7 4.4 17.4 1.3 ACES 1,255 835 50.3 47.6 21.5 6.5 28.1 20.2 24.8 9.6 1.3 4.1 20.8 1.0 BMTR 585 615 (4.9) (32.0) 8.3 0.9 N/A 5.7 (0.5) (3.9) 0.9 (1.1) 194.0 1.2 Property 422.6 BSDE 1,720 1,755 (2.0) (19.2) 33.1 1.5 11.3 11.2 13.8 (4.2) 0.3 5.0 (17.0) 1.2 LPKR 690 720 (4.2) (23.3) 15.9 0.8 18.0 15.2 4.7 (7.9) 0.3 18.6 64.8 1.1 PWON 630 565 11.5 (11.3) 30.3 3.1 17.0 11.6 19.6 3.6 0.7 4.7 32.4 1.1 WSKT 2,120 2,550 (16.9) (18.5) 28.8 2.2 6.5 11.7 28.9 (2.7) 1.8 68.1 63.5 0.9 SMRA 1,035 1,325 (21.9) (31.7) 14.9 2.4 39.9 13.3 6.1 (2.0) 0.5 (4.0) (63.6) 1.2 CTRA 1,210 1,335 (9.4) (20.4) 22.5 1.7 17.3 13.9 9.0 (2.2) 0.4 (10.3) (33.6) 0.9 PTPP 2,850 3,810 (25.2) (27.6) 17.7 1.7 14.0 8.2 18.9 (2.1) 1.7 15.8 13.5 0.9 WIKA 1,970 2,360 (16.5) (16.2) 17.7 1.5 12.6 N/A 14.8 (1.0) 1.7 15.0 68.3 0.8 ADHI 2,190 2,080 5.3 (0.9) 7.8 1.4 20.0 11.3 7.4 (3.8) 1.2 17.8 (56.6) 0.8 ASRI 406 352 15.3 (7.3) 8.0 1.0 8.3 7.6 12.5 (0.1) 0.4 (2.4) (14.7) 1.1 APLN 262 210 24.8 (7.7) 5.4 0.6 6.8 5.7 9.7 1.7 0.8 0.6 (21.3) 0.8 Misc Ind. 400.1 ASII 8,000 8,275 (3.3) (3.9) 323.9 2.8 18.6 12.4 15.8 (4.3) 2.1 (1.7) 4.8 1.2 SRIL 364 230 58.3 40.0 6.8 1.3 8.0 6.2 18.1 3.3 0.8 9.3 6.7 0.8 Basic Ind. 514.8 INTP 22,450 15,400 45.8 36.7 82.6 3.5 35.3 24.5 9.7 (5.5) 4.1 (13.7) (11.2) 1.3 SMGR 10,900 9,175 18.8 14.7 64.7 2.3 21.2 16.6 10.9 (3.6) 2.8 (3.0) 0.0 1.1 CPIN 3,300 3,090 6.8 (11.1) 54.1 3.6 32.1 12.5 11.2 0.3 1.7 27.9 29.1 1.1 WTON 655 825 (20.6) (25.6) 5.7 2.2 19.0 10.8 12.7 1.2 1.5 31.3 56.7 0.7 Mining 344.8 ADRO 1,825 1,695 7.7 11.3 58.4 1.2 8.6 4.0 15.3 6.4 2.3 (6.0) 119.3 1.3 INCO 2,940 2,820 4.3 9.7 29.2 1.2 N/A 17.5 (0.6) (11.3) N/A (26.0) N/A 1.4 PTBA 11,475 12,500 (8.2) (9.5) 26.4 1.9 6.6 4.4 32.2 13.2 2.5 2.4 1.2 1.3 ANTM 645 895 (27.9) (28.3) 15.5 0.9 N/A 23.3 (2.4) (9.4) N/A (13.5) N/A 1.1 ITMG 22,200 16,875 31.6 49.2 25.1 2.0 9.0 3.7 22.7 12.5 7.1 (14.0) 100.0 0.9Agriculture 111.5
AALI 14,575 16,775 (13.1) (2.8) 28.1 1.6 12.4 7.1 13.4 1.9 3.6 8.1 203.2 0.7 SSMS 1,495 1,400 6.8 (1.6) 14.2 3.9 18.9 12.0 22.5 1.4 1.2 14.8 9.2 0.8 LSIP 1,510 1,740 (13.2) 2.4 10.3 1.3 10.7 5.7 12.5 0.7 2.3 (8.2) (4.4) 0.9
Company News
Domestic & Global News
Bank Indonesia Estimasi Pertumbuhan PDB 5,15%
Gubernur Bank Indonesia Agus Martowardojo mengatakan bahwa pertumbuhan ekonomi pada 2017 akan didorong oleh ekspor dan investasi yang lebih tinggi, serta konsumsi rumah tangga yang lebih kuat. Sementara itu, Menteri Keuangan Sri Mulyani mengatakan bahwa pemerintah memperkirakan pertumbuhan ekonomi sebesar 5,17% pada 2017. Berdasarkan survei Bank Indonesia pada minggu keempat, inflasi pada Oktober berada pada 0,09% m-m dan 3,67% y-y. Investasi asing langsung pada kuartal ketiga berasal dari merger dan akusisi pada industri e-commerce. (Bloomberg)
Trump Berharap Parlemen Setujui Reformasi Pajak
Presiden Donald Trump megatakan bahwa dia berharap reformasi pajak dapat tercapai pada akhir tahun. Trump juga menyatakan bahwa dirinya tidak mengharapkan adanya pemotongan pajak korporasi. Trump mengatakan hal tersebut setelah pertemuan dengan pimpinan usaha termasuk Kamar Dagang Industri AS, Asosiasi Manufaktur Nasional dan Pertemuan Meja Bundar. (CNBC)
SMAR : Catatkan Penjualan Bersih Rp25,78 Triliun
Sampai 3Q17, PT Sinar Mas Agro Resources and Technology Tbk. (SMAR) membukukan penjualan senilai Rp25,78 triliun (+13,06% y-y). Laba usaha meningkat menjadi Rp1,15 triliun dari periode yang sama tahun sebelumnya senilai Rp681,22 miliar. Namun, penghasilan atau beban pajak yang membengkak menyebabkan laba bersih anjlok 74,74% yoy menuju Rp614,64 miliar dari sebelumnya Rp2,43 triliun. (Bisnis Indonesia)
KINO : Bentuk 2 Joint Venture
PT Kino Indonesia Tbk. (KINO) membentuk dua perusahaan patungan di Indonesia dan Thailand bersama dengan Malee Capital Company Limited. KINO akan mengekspor produk perawatan, pemeliharaan tubuh dan farma miliknya ke Thailand untuk dipasarkan dan dijual oleh Malee dan selanjutnya mengimpor, memasarkan, menjual dan mendistribusikan produk minuman Malee di Indonesia. (Bisnis Indonesia)
ASII : Laba Bersih Tumbuh 26%
Pada 9M17, PT Astra International Tbk (ASII) berhasil meraup laba bersih Rp14,18 triliun,(+26% y-y). Kontribusi laba segmen otomotif berkurang bila dibandingkan dengan 9M16 dari 53,14% menjadi 46,3%. Walaupun demikian, pertumbuhan laba segmen otomotif mencapai 10% y-y. Pada sisa tahun ini, manajemen ASII optimis perbaikan harga komoditas akan memberikan dampak positif terhadap kinerja perseroan. (Bisnis Indonesia)
MAPI : Pendapatan Naik 13,5%
PT Mitra Adiperkasa Tbk (MAPI) mencatatkan pendapatan untuk 9M17 senilai Rp11,7 triliun (+13,5% y-y). Laba bersih melonjak menjadi Rp256 miliar (+112% y-y). Sampai dengan September 2017, MAPI telah mengoperasikan 1.916 gerai ritel dan menambahkan luas area ritel sebesar 22.200 m2 untuk menunjang pertumbuhan perusahaan dengan membuka gerai-gerai sports, fashion dan food & beverage. (Bisnis Indonesia)
Global Economic Calendar
Date Country Hour
Jakarta Event Period Actual Consensus Previous
Monday UK 16:30 Mortgage Approvals Sep 66.2k 66.0k 66.6k
30 - Oct EU 17:00 Consumer Confidence Oct F -1 -1 -1
USA 19:30 Personal Income Sep 0.40% 0.40% 0.20%
USA 19:30 Personal Spending Sep 1.00% 0.80% 0.10%
GER 20:00 CPI MoM Oct P 0.00% 0.10% 0.10%
GER 20:00 CPI YoY Oct P 1.60% 1.70% 1.80%
Tuesday JPN 06:30 Jobless Rate Sep 2.80% 2.80% 2.80%
31- Oct JPN 06:50 Industrial Production MoM Sep P -1.10% -1.60% 2.00% JPN 06:50 Industrial Production YoY Sep P 2.50% 2.00% 5.30%
CHN 08:00 Manufacturing PMI Oct 51.6 52.1 52.4
EU 17:00 Unemployment Rate Sep 8.90% 9.00% 9.10%
EU 17:00 GDP SA QoQ 3Q A 0.60% 0.50% 0.60%
EU 17:00 GDP SA YoY 3Q A 2.50% 2.40% 2.30%
USA 21:00 Conf. Board Consumer Confidence Oct 125.9 121 119.8 JPN Tentative BOJ Policy Balance Rate 31-Oct -0.10% -0.10% -0.10%
Wednesday JPN 07:30 Nikkei Japan PMI Mfg Oct F -- 53
01 - Nov CHN 08:45 Caixin China PMI Mfg Oct 51 51
UK 14:00 Nationwide House PX MoM Oct 0.20% 0
UK 14:00 Nationwide House Px NSA YoY Oct 2.20% 0
UK 16:30 Markit UK PMI Manufacturing SA Oct 55.9 56
USA 19:15 ADP Employment Change Oct 190k 135k
USA 20:45 Markit US Manufacturing PMI Oct F 54.5 55
USA 21:00 ISM Manufacturing Oct 59.1 61
Thursday USA 01:00 FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound) 1-Nov 1.25% 1.25%
02 - Nov USA 01:00 FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound) 1-Nov 1.00% 1.00% GER 15:55 Unemployment Change (000's) Oct -10k -23k GER 15:55 Markit/BME Germany Manufacturing PMI Oct F 60.5 60.5 EU 16:00 Markit Eurozone Manufacturing PMI Oct F 58.6 58.6 UK 19:00 Bank of England Bank Rate 2-Nov 0.50% 0.25%
UK 19:00 BOE Asset Purchase Target Nov 435b 435b
USA 19:30 Initial Jobless Claims 28-Oct -- 233k
Friday USA 19:30 Change in Nonfarm Payrolls Oct 310k -33k
03 - Nov USA 19:30 Unemployment Rate Oct 4.20% 4.20%
USA 19:30 Trade Balance Sep -$43.5b -$42.4b
USA 21:00 Factory Orders Sep 1.00% 1.20%
USA 21:00 Durable Goods Orders Sep F -- 2.20%
Corporate Calendar
Date Event Company
Monday Extraordinary Shareholder Meeting MLBI, HERO, OKAS
30 - Oct
Tuesday Extraordinary Shareholder Meeting LMAS
31 - Oct
Wednesday Extraordinary Shareholder Meeting NISP, INDY
01 - Nov IPO Listing MCAS
Thursday Extraordinary Shareholder Meeting TRUS, AISA, MEDC, PLIN, BBNI, RELI 02 - Nov
Source: Bloomberg
Domestic Economic Calendar
Date Hour
Jakarta Event Period Actual Consensus Prev
Tuesday Tentative Money Supply M2 YoY Sep -- 10.00%
31 - Oct Tentative Money Supply M1 YoY Sep -- 12.30%
Wednesday 07:30 Nikkei Indonesia PMI Mfg Oct -- 50.4
01 - Nov 11:00 CPI Core YoY Oct 2.98% 3.00%
11:00 CPI YoY Oct 3.67% 3.72%
11:00 CPI NSA MoM Oct 0.10% 0.13%
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