Riset Teknikal Saham Harian

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Analisa Teknikal

Riset Teknikal Saham Harian

Samuel Research 13 Juni 2017

www.samuel.co.id Page 1 of 7

Kembali Downtrend Menuju 5,600

IHSG tidak cukup melewati 5,700 sehingga membuktikan bahwa Downtrend sedang aktif saat ini dengan potensi menuju 5,500 dan Support terdekat di 5,600. IHSG berpotensi kembali mengawali Technical Rebound setelah menyentuh 5,650 sebelum menyentuh 5,600 di minggu depan.

Sektor yang layak dipilih adalah : Cigarettes dan Retail. Sektor untuk Bottom Fishing adalah : FMCG, Auto, Media, Residential, Coal dan CPO. Waspadai sektor : Bank.

Day Trading Recommendation LQ45 : ADHI

Non-LQ45 : JPFA dan TOTL Swing Trading Recommendation Add : No Change

Drop : No Change Concern : BBRI

 Commodity Related : -

 Consumer Related : FMCG (MYOR), Retail (MAPI), Cigarettes (GGRM)

 Infrastructure Related : Construction (ADHI), Telecom (TLKM), Toll (JSMR)

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Riset Teknikal Saham Harian

13 June 2017

Day Trading Recommendation

Saham Last Price 1D %Ch Supp.1 Supp.2 Resist.1 Resist.2 Daily Target Cut Loss

JPFA 1365 5.4 1310 1260 1410 1450 1395 1335

TOTL 735 0.7 730 730 740 750 750 720

ADHI 2200 0.9 2180 2160 2230 2260 2250 2150

 ADHI masuk ke dalam Swing Trading Recommendation

Swing Trading Recommendation

Stock 1st Add Date 1st Add Open Price Latest Close % Change Since Add Estimated Target % Upside Potential Since Last Close

Entry Timing

GGRM 9-May-17 70,000 77,750 11.1% 89,500 15.1% Now

MYOR 3-Jan-17 1,645 2,120 28.9% 2,500 17.9% Now

MAPI 3-Mar-17 5,350 6,300 17.8% 7,650 21.4% Wait

ADHI 7-Apr-17 2,280 2,200 -3.5% 2,600 18.2% Wait

TLKM 23-May-17 4,500 4,330 -3.8% 5,400 24.7% Wait

JSMR 8-May-17 4,750 5,150 8.4% 5,650 9.7% Wait

BBCA 23-Mar-17 16,400 17,750 8.2% 19,800 11.5% Now

BBRI 26-Apr-17 13,150 14,625 11.2% 16,000 9.4% Now

BBTN 16-Jan-17 1,900 2,570 35.3% 2,750 7.0% Wait

 INTP dan EXCL sedang dipertimbangkan masuk ke dalam Swing Trading Recommendation  BBRI masuk ke dalam daftar saham yang perlu diwaspadai

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Riset Teknikal Saham Harian

13 June 2017

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Recommendation Charts

JPFA (Rp1,365) : Bersiap Breakout Rp1,400 Untuk Mengawali Uptrend Setidkanya Menuju Rp1,500

JPFA membentuk pola Bullish Continuation untuk Uptrend jangka panjang dengan menuju Rp1,400. Setelah Breakout Rp1,400, JPFA berpotensi mengakhiri Downtrend jangka menengah (sejak Feb'17) dan mengawali Uptrend jangka pendek menuju Rp2,000. Uptrend jangka panjang berpotensi di awali setelah JPFA Breakout Rp2,000. Waspadai penurunan di bawah Rp1,040

TOTL (Rp735) : Menguji Support di Rp730 Untuk Menguji Resistance di Rp810

TOTL terindikasi sedang melawan potensi Downtrend dengan bertahan di Support di Rp730. Ada potensi naik

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Riset Teknikal Saham Harian

13 June 2017

ADHI (Rp2,200) : Dalam Support Uptrend Channel Untuk Menuju Rp2,600

Mempertahankan Uptrend Channel menuju Rp2,600 dengan mengakhiri Technical Correction di Rp2,250an.

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Riset Teknikal Saham Harian

13 June 2017

Sectoral Movement

Relation / Sector Positive Move Negative Move Real Rise Fake Fall Real Fall Fake Rise Staples 69.2% 30.8% 15.4% 53.8% 7.7% 23.1%

Cigarettes 100.0% 0.0% 50.0% 50.0% 0.0% 0.0%

FMCG 62.5% 37.5% 0.0% 62.5% 12.5% 25.0%

Poultry 66.7% 33.3% 33.3% 33.3% 0.0% 33.3%

Relation / Sector Positive Move Negative Move Real Rise Fake Fall Real Fall Fake Rise Discretionary 82.4% 17.6% 23.5% 58.8% 5.9% 11.8% Auto 66.7% 33.3% 0.0% 66.7% 0.0% 33.3% Healthcare 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Pharmacy 50.0% 50.0% 0.0% 50.0% 50.0% 0.0% Retail 85.7% 14.3% 28.6% 57.1% 0.0% 14.3% Media 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Relation / Sector Positive Move Negative Move Real Rise Fake Fall Real Fall Fake Rise Infrastructure 57.9% 42.1% 21.1% 36.8% 10.5% 31.6% Cement 50.0% 50.0% 0.0% 50.0% 0.0% 50.0% Telecom 66.7% 33.3% 33.3% 33.3% 0.0% 33.3% Construction 60.0% 40.0% 40.0% 20.0% 20.0% 20.0% Industrial Area 60.0% 40.0% 20.0% 40.0% 20.0% 20.0% Toll 50.0% 50.0% 0.0% 50.0% 0.0% 50.0%

Relation / Sector Positive Move Negative Move Real Rise Fake Fall Real Fall Fake Rise Interest 42.1% 57.9% 0.0% 42.1% 10.5% 47.4%

Banking 12.5% 87.5% 0.0% 12.5% 12.5% 75.0%

Residential 63.6% 36.4% 0.0% 63.6% 9.1% 27.3%

Relation / Sector Positive Move Negative Move Real Rise Fake Fall Real Fall Fake Rise Commodity 66.7% 33.3% 9.5% 57.1% 19.0% 14.3%

Coal 85.7% 14.3% 0.0% 85.7% 0.0% 14.3%

CPO 83.3% 16.7% 16.7% 66.7% 16.7% 0.0%

Mineral 50.0% 50.0% 25.0% 25.0% 25.0% 25.0%

Oil&Gas 25.0% 75.0% 0.0% 25.0% 50.0% 25.0%

 Discretionary Consumer Related layak menjadi pilihan utama hari ini  Sektor yang layak dipilih adalah : Cigarettes dan Retail

 Sektor untuk Bottom Fishing adalah : FMCG, Auto, Media, Residential, Coal dan CPO  Waspadai sektor : Bank

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Riset Teknikal Saham Harian

13 June 2017

Technical Analysis Glossary

Support : Level harga dimana berpotensi menahan penurunan lebih lanjut Resistance : Level harga dimana berpotensi menahan kenaikan lebih lanjut

Breakout : Pergerakan harga melewati Resistance dari bawah ke atas. Mengindikasikan Uptrend Breakdown : Pergerakan harga melewati Support dari atas ke bawah. Mengindikasikan Downtrend Throwback : Penurunan paksa terjadi Breakout dimana maksimum penurunan adalah Support yang

berasal dari Resistance yang baru saja di-Breakout

Pullback : Kenaikan paska terjadi Breakdown dimana maksimum kenaikan adalah Resistance yang berasal dari Support yang baru saja di-Breakdown

Technical Rebound : Kenaikan sementara di tengah Downtrend. Kenaikan tersebut akan lebih kecil dari penurunan yang segera terjadi

Technical Correction : Penurunan sementara di tengah Uptrend. Penurunan tersebut akan lebih kecil dari kenaikan yang segera terjadi

Bullish Continuation : Pergerakan yang mengindikasikan Uptrend sebelumnya akan berlanjut Bearish Continuation : Pergerakan yang mengindikasikan Downtrend sebelumnya akan berlanjut

Bullish Reversal : Pergerakan yang mengindikasikan Downtrend sebelumnya berubah menjadi Uptrend Bearish Reversal : Pergerakan yang mengindikasikan Uptrend sebelumnya berubah menjadi Downtrend Up Trendline : Support Diagonal ke arah atas yang menandakan pergerakan Uptrend

Down Trendline : Support Diagonal ke arah atas yang menandakan pergerakan Uptrend Day Trading : Strategi trading dengan Holding Period selama 1 hari sampai 2 minggu Swing Trading : Strategi trading dengan Holding Period sampai 3 bulan

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DISCLAIMERS : Analyst Certification : The views expressed in this research accurately reflect the personal views of the analyst(s) about the subject securities or

issuers and no part of the compensation of the analyst(s) was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the inclusion of specific recommendations or views in this research. The analyst(s) principally responsible for the preparation of this research has taken reasonable care to achieve and maintain independence and objectivity in making any recommendations. This document is for information only and for the use of the recipient. It is not to be reproduced or copied or made available to others. Under no circumstances is it to be considered as an offer to sell or solicitation to buy any security. Any recommendation contained in this report may not be suitable for all investors. Moreover, although the information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, its accuracy, completeness and reliability cannot be guaranteed. All rights reserved by PT Samuel Sekuritas Indonesia

Research Team

Andy Ferdinand, CFA Head Of Equity Research, Strategy,

Banking, Consumer [email protected] +6221 2854 8148

Rangga Cipta Economist [email protected] +6221 2854 8396

Muhamad Makky Dandytra, CFTe Technical Analyst [email protected] +6221 2854 8382

Akhmad Nurcahyadi, CSA Auto, Aviation, Cigarette, Construction

Healthcare, Heavy Equipment, Property [email protected] +6221 2854 8144

Arandi Ariantara Cement, Telecommunication, Utility [email protected] +6221 2854 8392

Marlene Tanumihardja Poultry, Retail, Small Caps [email protected] +6221 2854 8387

Sharlita Lutfiah Malik Mining, Plantation [email protected] +6221 2854 8339

Nadya Swastika Research Associate [email protected] +6221 2854 8338

Private Wealth Management

Evelyn Satyono Head of PWM / Institutional Sales [email protected] +6221 2854 8380

Muhamad Alfatih CSA, CTA, CFTe Senior Technical Portfolio Advisor [email protected] +6221 2854 8129

Ronny Ardianto Institutional Equity Sales [email protected] +6221 2854 8399

Clarice Wijana Institutional Equity Sales [email protected] +6221 2854 8395

Fachruly Fiater Institutional Equity Sales [email protected] +6221 2854 8325

Equity Sales Team

Kelvin Long Head of Equities [email protected] +6221 2854 8150

Yulianah Institutional Equity Sales [email protected] +6221 2854 8146

Lucia Irawati Retail Equity Sales [email protected] +6221 2854 8173

Online Trading Sales Team

Nugroho Nuswantoro Head of Marketing Online Trading [email protected] +6221 2854 8372

Wahyu Widodo Marketing [email protected] +6221 2854 8371