Company Update
Hanjaya Mandala Sampoerna
Bloomberg:HMSP:IJ | Reuters: HMSP.JK
Samuel Equity Research 7 March 2017
www.samuel.co.id
Akhmad Nurcahyadi, CSA +62 21 2854 8144
Akhmad.nurcahyadi@samuel.co.id
Overcoming industry pressure
Ditengah berlanjutnya tekanan kinerja sektor, HMSP membukukan pertumbuhan laba FY16 +23.15%YoY, atau diatas proyeksi SSI dan konsensus. Tahun ini, peningkatan ASP untuk mengkompensasi kontinuitas kenaikan cukai masih akan menjadi katalis, sedangkan rencana penerapan PPN pada jalur distribusi kami lihat juga akan diseimbangkan dengan cara yang sama. Tetap BUY untuk HMSP dengan 12M DCF TP Rp4,390 (39.5xP/E17E, 12.9xPBV17E). Kinerja laba FY16 diatas ekspektasi SSI dan konsensus. Laba FY16 +23.15% 4Q16 +25.5%QoQ (7.7% diatas angka SSI dan 7.1% vs FY16E konsensus), bertumbuh lebih tinggi dari top line +7.18%YoY (FY16) dan 9.82%QoQ (4Q16). Kenaikan tersebut didorong oleh lonjakan penghasilan keuangan dan penurunan tajam beban keuangan. Tanpa adanya pos tersebut core masih naik namun hanya +14.7%YoY. Di periode yang sama margin tercatat +1.7% lebih tinggi menjadi 13.4% vs 11.6% di FY15 dan +1.8% lebih tinggi menjadi 14.6% di 4Q16.
Pelemahan volume penjualan. Sejalan dengan sudut pandang kami selama dua tahun terakhir, kinerja pertumbuhan laba emiten rokok tidak akan diikuti oleh peningkatan volume penjualan. Di FY16 HMSP mencatat penurunan volume penjualan sebesar -3.9% menjadi 105.5miliar batang, atau lebih rendah (-2.6%) dari pelemahan volume penjualan industri -1.4% menjadi 315.6miliar batang.
Kenaikan ASP menjadi penolong pertumbuhan. Selain hal tersebut diatas, kinerja FY16 juga tertolong oleh harga jual yang tercatat lebih tinggi YoY, dimana secara blended ASP (4Q16) mengalami kenaikan +3.1%QoQ, lebih tinggi vs 4Q15 sebesar +2.7%QoQ, sedangkan per FY16 blended ASP naik +11.6%YoY menjadi Rp905/batang dari Rp811/batang di FY15. Tahun ini, volume penjualan kami proyeksikan masih akan tertekan, atau sekitar -2.9%YoY, dengan potensi kenaikan ASP sebesar +11.1%YoY.
Maintain (BUY). Tahun ini, tekanan pada volume penjualan masih akan berlanjut. Kunci pertumbuhan masih terletak pada kenaikan ASP untuk mengkompensasi kenaikan beban pita cukai yang telah tercatat naik CAGR 16.3%. Efisiensi yang dilakukan di FY16, terutama penurunan beban iklan dan promosi akan ikut membantu terjaganya pertumbuhan laba FY17. Resiko terletak pada (1) kontinuitas kenaikan cukai (2) penerapan PPN pada seluruh rantai distribusi (3) penerapan pajak lainnya selain cukai.
Target Price Rp 4,390 Last Price Rp 3,950 Potential Upside 11.1% JCI Index 5,403 Share isued (bn) 116.32 Market Cap. (Rp tn) 459.46 52-Weeks High/Low 4,368 / 3,560
Avg Daily Vol (mn) 15.27
Free Float 7.5%
Nominal Value Rp 4
Book value/share ‘17 Rp 324
Relative to JCI Chart
Company Background
Shareholder Structure
Philip Morris Indonesia 92.5% Schroder Investment 0.4%
Others 7.1%
BUY (Maintain)
PT Hanjaya Mandala Sampoerna Tbk memproduksi hand rolled (SKT) and machine-rolled clove-blended cigarettes (SKM). Distribusi produk dilakukan di dalam maupun luar negeri. Perusahaan memiliki pangsa produk SKM dan SKT yang tinggi. 80 90 100 110 120
Mar-16 May-16 Jul-16 Sep-16 Nov-16 Jan-17 Mar-17
JCI HMSP
Forecast and Valuation (at closing price Rp3,950 per share)
Y/E Dec (Rpbn) 15E 16E 17E 18E
Sales 89,069 95,467 103,021 107,568 EBITDA 14,396 16,795 17,729 18,289 Net Profit 10,363 12,762 12,933 13,382 EPS (Rp/saham) 89 110 111 115 DPS (Rp) 2,745 66 73 81 Dividend Yield (%) 2.8 1.7 1.8 2.1 BV per share (Rp) 275 294 324 11,781 EV/EBITDA (x) 31.8 27.1 25.6 24.8 P/E Ratio (x) 44.1 35.8 35.3 34.2 P/BV Ratio (x) 14.3 13.4 12.1 11.1
Hanjaya Mandala
Sampoerna
HMSP:IJ |HMSP.JK
www.samuel.co.id Page 2 of 5
Figure 1. HMSP - Quarterly result
Source : Company, SSI Research
Figure 2. HMSP - Forward P/E Band
Source : Company, SSI Research
Rpbn 4Q15 3Q16 4Q16 QoQ YoY 12M15 12M16 YoY vs SSI vs Cons
Sales 23,552 22,939 25,191 9.82 6.96 89,069 95,467 7.18 96.8 97.6 COGS (17,534) (17,320) (18,517) 6.91 5.61 (67,305) (71,612) 6.40 Gross profit 6,017 5,619 6,674 18.76 10.91 21,764 23,855 9.60 97.6 100.1 SG&A (2,395) (1,905) (2,052) 7.68 (14.35) (7,716) (7,834) 1.53 Operating profit 3,622 3,714 4,622 24.44 27.61 14,048 16,020 14.04 100.3 103.5 Pre-tax profit 3,749 3,903 4,933 26.38 31.57 13,933 17,011 22.10 106.9 106.6 Income taxes (983) (970) (1,252) 29.00 27.39 (3,569) (4,249) 19.05 Core Profit 2,696 2,754 3,464 25.79 28.48 10,403 11,930 14.69
Net income (loss) 2,767 2,933 3,681 25.51 33.05 10,363 12,762 23.15 107.7 107.1
EPS (Rp) 25 25 32 25.51 26.25 93 110 17.98 0 Margin Gross margin 25.6 24.5 26.5 2.0 0.9 24.4 25.0 0.6 Operating margin 15.4 16.2 18.3 2.2 3.0 15.8 16.8 1.0 Net margin 11.7 12.8 14.6 1.8 2.9 11.6 13.4 1.7 0 10 20 30 40 50 60
Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17
Average ST dev +1 ST dev -1
Hanjaya Mandala
Sampoerna
HMSP:IJ |HMSP.JK
www.samuel.co.id Page 3 of 5
Figure 3. Industry and HMSP sales volume
Source : Company, SSI Research
Indonesia and PMI sales volume
Total industry (bn sticks) 83.1 72.3 80.5 11.3% -3.1% 320.0 315.6 -1.4% PMI sales volume (bn sticks) 27.9 25.1 26.7 6.6% -4.3% 109.8 105.5 -3.9%
PMI cigarette sales volume to total industry (bn sticks) 35.2%
Sampoerna A 11.9 10.4 11.3 8.2% -5.2% 46.7 44.2 -5.4% Dji Sam Soe 5.7 4.8 5.2 8.0% -8.8% 22.1 20.5 -7.1% U Mild 3.7 3.1 3.1 1.0% -16.0% 15.0 13.3 -11.9% Others 6.6 6.8 7.2 5.4% 7.8% 25.9 27.5 5.9% Total 27.9 25.1 26.7 6.5% -4.3% 109.8 105.4 -4.0%
Market share (%)
Sampoerna A 14.3% 14.4% 14.0% -0.4% -0.3% 14.6% 14.0% -0.6%
Dji Sam Soe 6.8% 6.6% 6.4% -0.2% -0.4% 6.9% 6.5% -0.4%
U Mild 4.5% 4.3% 3.9% -0.4% -0.6% 4.7% 4.2% -0.5%
Others 8.0% 9.4% 8.9% -0.5% 0.9% 8.1% 8.7% 0.6%
PMI - Total 33.6% 34.7% 33.2% -1.5% -0.4% 34.3% 33.4% -0.9%
Industry segment sales volume (bn sticks)
Hand-Rolled Kretek - SKT 15.9 12.4 14.7 17.8% -7.7% 61.1 57.4 -6.0% Machine-Made Kretek - SKM 62.2 55.5 61.3 10.6% -1.3% 239.0 239.2 0.1% Whites Cigarette - SPM 5.1 4.4 4.5 2.2% -11.1% 19.8 18.9 -4.6% Total SKT, SKM and SPM 83.1 72.3 80.5 11.3% -3.1% 320.0 315.6 -1.4% Industry segment M/S - - - -Hand-Rolled Kretek - SKT 19.1% 17.2% 18.2% 1.0% -0.9% 19.1% 18.2% -0.9% Machine-Made Kretek - SKM 74.8% 76.7% 76.2% -0.5% 1.4% 74.7% 75.8% 1.1% Whites Cigarette - SPM 6.1% 6.1% 5.6% -0.5% -0.5% 6.2% 6.0% -0.2% Total SKT, SKM and SPM 100% 100.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 100.0% 0.0%
PMI share to industry segment (%)
Hand-Rolled Kretek - SKT 38.9% 38.6% 37.8% -0.8% -1.1% 37.7% 37.3% -0.4% Machine-Made Kretek - SKM 28.5% 30.2% 29.0% -1.2% 0.5% 29.7% 28.9% -0.8% Whites Cigarette - SPM 80.6% 79.7% 76.3% -3.4% -4.3% 80.3% 79.5% -0.8%
PMI share sales volume to industry segment sales volume (bn sticks)
Hand-Rolled Kretek - SKT 6.2 4.8 5.5 15.3% -10.3% 23.0 21.4 -7.0% Machine-Made Kretek - SKM 17.7 16.8 17.8 6.1% 0.4% 71.0 69.1 -2.6% Whites Cigarette - SPM 4.1 3.5 3.4 -2.1% -15.8% 15.9 15.1 -5.5% Total SKT, SKM and SPM 28.0 25.1 26.8 6.7% -4.3% 110.0 105.6 -4.0%
FY15 FY16 YoY 4Q16 QoQ YoY
3Q16 4Q15
Hanjaya Mandala
Sampoerna
HMSP:IJ |HMSP.JK
www.samuel.co.id Page 4 of 5
Key Financials
Yr-end Dec (Rp bn) 15A 16A 17E 18E Yr-end Dec (Rp bn) 15A 16A 17E 18E Revenue 89,069 95,467 103,021 107,568 Net Income 10,363 12,762 12,933 13,382 COGS (67,305) (71,612) (77,325) (80,904) Dep. & Amort. 440 616 687 748 Gross profit 21,764 23,855 25,697 26,665 Chg Working Cap 216 (2,662) (2,341) (2,591) Gross margin (%) 24.4 25.0 24.9 24.8 Others (10,206) 3,360 (3,601) (3,523)
Operating profit 13,956 16,179 17,042 17,542 Operating CF 814 14,077 7,678 8,015
Operating margin (%) 15.7 16.9 16.5 16.3 Capex 971 1,209 1,388 1,177
EBITDA 14,396 16,795 17,729 18,289 Investing CF (4,537) (362) 1,234 1,129
EBITDA margin (%) 16.2 17.6 17.2 17.0 Change in Capital 20,414 (19) 30 - Other Income (Expenses) (23) 832 301 408 Others (15,037) (10,358) (8,302) (9,325) Pre-tax profit 13,933 17,011 17,343 17,949 Financing CF 5,377 (10,377) (8,272) (9,325)
Income tax - net (3,569) (4,249) (4,410) (4,568) Net Cash Flow 1,653 3,337 639 (180)
Net profit 10,363 12,762 12,933 13,382 Cash Beginning 65 1,719 5,056 5,696 Net profit margin (%) 11.6 13.4 12.6 12.4 Cash Ending 1,718 5,056 5,696 5,515
11,876
-6.94% -100.00%
Yr-end Dec (Rp bn) 15A 16A 17E 18E Yr-end Dec 15A 16A 17E 18E
Cash & ST Investment 1,719 5,056 5,696 5,515 ROE 32.4 37.3 34.3 32.4
Receivables 4,727 4,996 5,392 5,737 ROA 27.3 30.0 27.7 26.4 Inventories 19,072 19,442 21,765 24,985 Revenue Growth (%) 10.4 7.2 7.9 4.4 Others 4,290 4,153 4,115 4,296 EBITDA (%) 1.8 16.7 5.6 3.2 Total Current Assets 29,807 33,647 36,967 40,533 EPS Growth (%) 1.8 23.1 1.3 3.5
Net fixed assets 6,887 7,481 8,182 8,611 Interest coverage (x) 100.8 724.7 208.9 189.6 Other assets 1,317 1,380 1,535 1,583 Debt to Equity (%) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Total Assets 38,011 42,508 46,684 50,727 Net Gearing (%) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1
Payables 3,605 5,504 5,940 6,202 ST. debt & curr. Mat - - -
-Other current liabilities 934 924 997 1,041 Yr-end Dec 15A 16A 17E 18E
LT. debt 41 66 71 74 GDP growth (%) 4.7 5.1 5.2 5.4 Other long term liabilities 1,415 1,839 1,985 2,072 USD/IDR (average) 13,500 13,253 13,200 12,800
Total Liabilities 5,995 8,333 8,993 9,390 Vol Sales (bn stick) 109.8 105.5 102.5 97.4
Total Equity 32,016 34,175 37,691 41,337 ASP (Rp) 810.9 904.7 1,005.4 1,103.9
Profit and Loss Statement Cash Flow
Profit and Loss Statement Key Ratios
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DISCLAIMERS : Analyst Certification : The views expressed in this research accurately reflect the personal views of the analyst(s) about the subject securities
or issuers and no part of the compensation of the analyst(s) was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the inclusion of specific recommendations or views in this research. The analyst(s) principally responsible for the preparation of this research has taken reasonable care to achieve and maintain independence and objectivity in making any recommendations. This document is for information only and for the use of the recipient. It is not to be reproduced or copied or made available to others. Under no circumstances is it to be considered as an offer to sell or solicitation to buy any security. Any recommendation contained in this report may not be suitable for all investors. Moreover, although the information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, its accuracy, completeness and reliability cannot be guaranteed. All rights reserved by PT Samuel Sekuritas Indonesia.
Research Team
Andy Ferdinand, CFA Head Of Equity Research, Strategy, Banking, Consumer andy.ferdinand@samuel.co.id +6221 2854 8148
Rangga Cipta Economist rangga.cipta@samuel.co.id +6221 2854 8396
Muhamad Makky Dandytra, CFTe Technical Analyst makky.dandytra@samuel.co.id +6221 2854 8382 Akhmad Nurcahyadi, CSA Auto, Aviation, Cigarette, Construction
Healthcare, Heavy Equipment, Property akhmad.nurcahyadi@samuel.co.id +6221 2854 8144 Arandi Ariantara Cement, Telecommunication, Utility arandi.ariantara@samuel.co.id +6221 2854 8392
Marlene Tanumihardja Poultry, Retail, Small Caps marlene@samuel.co.id +6221 2854 8387
Sharlita Lutfiah Malik Mining, Plantation sharlita.malik@samuel.co.id +6221 2854 8339
Nadya Swastika Research Associate nadya.swastika@samuel.co.id +6221 2854 8338
Private Wealth Management
Evelyn Satyono Head of PWM / Institutional Sales evelyn.satyono@samuel.co.id +6221 2854 8380 Muhamad Alfatih CSA, CTA, CFTe Senior Technical Portfolio Advisor m.alfatih@samuel.co.id +6221 2854 8129
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Clarice Wijana Institutional Equity Sales clarice.wijana@samuel.co.id +6221 2854 8395
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Equity Sales Team
Kelvin Long Head of Equities kelvin.long@samuel.co.id +6221 2854 8150
Yulianah Institutional Equity Sales yulianah@samuel.co.id +6221 2854 8146
Lucia Irawati Retail Equity Sales lucia.irawati@samuel.co.id +6221 2854 8173
Online Trading Sales Team
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