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4.Panel9 Pandu H Transition Critical Areas InaHEA July 2016

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(1)

Transitioning Externally-funded Health

Programs in Indonesia : Critical Areas to

Ensure Program Sustainability

The World Bank

(2)

Presentation outline

2

Background on the demand for programmatic

sustainability and transition planning

The roles of external funding in Indonesia’s health

sector

Critical Areas of transition planning

Country context

Financial sustainability

(3)

Critical areas

LOW INCOME LOWER MIDDLE INCOME UPPER MIDDLE

INCOME HIGH INCOME

Total health spending per capita (left axis)

OOP spending share (right axis)

External spending share (right axis)

0 1 0 2 0 3 0 4 0 5 0 6 0 S h ar e o f t o ta l h e al th e xp en di tu re ( % ) 5 2 5 1 00 5 00 2 50 0 1 00 00 T ot al h ea lth e xp en di tu re p er c ap ita , U S

250 500 1000 2500 10000 35000 100000 GNI per capita, US$

Source: World Development Indicators database

Health financing transition

(4)

4

(5)

Strictly Confidential © 2014

Changes in eligibility for accessing donor funds

5

• Indonesia re-gained its lower middle-income status in 2003

• With sustained economic growth, it is likely to transition to upper middle-income

status within the next few years

• DAH initiatives have explicit eligibility and graduation clauses using recipient country incomes status

• GFATM determines eligibility based on a series of factors that include country income and disease burden

GNI per capita and poverty trends in Indonesia, 1995-2013

LOWER MIDDLE INCOME LOW INCOME LOWER MIDDLE INCOME IBRD

$1-a-day poverty (right axis) $2-a-day poverty (right axis)

Blend IBRD 0 20 40 60 80 10 0 S ha re o f po pu la tio n (% ) 15 00 20 00 25 00 30 00 35 00 G D P p e r ca pi ta , U S $

1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2015

Year

(6)

Indonesia’s low dependence on EXTERNAL

FUNDING….

6

9/23/17

The share of external financing to total health spending has been consistently low for the past decade or so.

External funding for health for Indonesia External source as share of THE, 2014

Cambodia India Lao PDR Ghana Nigeria Philippines Vietnam Solomon Islands Papua New Guinea

Sri Lanka South Africa

Indonesia LOW INCOME LOWER MIDDLE INCOME UPPER MIDDLE

INCOME HIGH INCOME

Thailand China Rusia Malaysia Brazil 1 2 5 10 20 50 10 0 S ha re o f to ta l h ea lth e xp en di tu re ( % )

250 500 1000 2500 10000 35000 100000 GNI per capita, US$

Source: World Development Indicators database

0 5 10 15 S ha re o f to ta l h ea lth e xp en di tu re ( % )

1995 2000 2005 2010 2014

Year

(7)

Strictly Confidential © 2014

Rising program costs and resource gaps with new

commitment to access targets and growing

demand

7

TB

- Continues to be one of the main

causes of premature deaths

- Current low coverage and multi

drug resistance are expected to increase future costs

HIV

- HIV epidemic is projected to

continue to grow

- The GoI has committed to

expand test and treat coverage by strengthening the continuum of care model (Layanan

(8)

8

• The share of external funds varied across these programs but ranged

from 40-60% except for immunization program

• The share of domestic financing has been increasing for the past few

years

(9)

What are the roles of external financing

9

Not only financial support but also provide technical

assistance;

Filling in the gap for activities Gov’t budget has less

flexibility;

Pushing agenda forward: Accountability and good

governance, Health System Strengthening, QA

However, it could cause

Fragmentation of planning, financing flows, reporting,

monitoring, management of services and HR;

Unpredictability: disbursement is irregular and future

financial flows is uncertain

Conflict in prioritization

(10)

Context

Title of Presentation 10

China Malaysia Russia Thailand Philippines Ghana India Cambodia Lao PDR Vietnam Brazil South Africa

Sri LankaIndonesia

LOW INCOME LOWER MIDDLE INCOME UPPER MIDDLE

INCOME HIGH INCOME

1 2 5 1 0 1 5 2 0 S h ar e o f G D P ( % )

250 500 1000 2500 10000 35000 100000

GNI per capita, US$

Total health expenditure

Indonesia is

one of the lowest

levels

of health expenditure globally (3.6%

of GDP); An

outlier

compare to LMIC

(5.6% of GDP) and for East Asia &

Pacific region (5.1% of GDP)

Indonesia has started implementing

Jaminan Kesehatan Nasional

, JKN, a

(11)

Context

11

However, health is financed by a combination of sources:

OOP

,

central

and

sub-national

government budgetary health

expenditures, and

SHI

.

Over half

of national government expenditures on health

now occur at the district level, up from less than an average

of less than 10% pre-decentralization

Intergovernmental fiscal

transfers

are large,

fragmented, and complex,

these transfers not to

(12)

Financial Sustainability

• Program funding needs are projected to increase due to epidemic growth as well as, new GoI commitments to reach global targets, such as

expansion of HIV test and treat, improve case finding and notification rate, introduction of new vaccines, etc.

• Mobilization of domestic resources, especially at sub national level,

continues to be challenging; sub national level expenditure information is scarce

• Fiscal Space for health: the requirement for

5% and 10% budget allocation for health sector, SDGs and other global commitment, rooms for improving efficiency in service delivery, and JKN

(13)

13

…..but also service delivery preparedness, ensuring,

public health functions, organizational arrangement..

Integrating HIV services into JKN Basic

(14)

Programmatic sustainability

Supply side availability and readiness in general is weak and varied widely

and not necessarily link with epidemic profile; information at private sector

is limited

The involvement of Non-state providers is key to reach target population

groups (Key Affected Population in HIV, outreach in remote areas for

Malaria, TB),

Pharmaceuticals and Supply Chain Management : access to global price,

and distribution costs esp. to remote areas

Public Financial Management : planning and budgeting capacity, program

expenditure tracking

Monitoring & Evaluation : on the one hand improved capacity for disease

surveillance, but parallel reporting requirements complicate HMIS

Health Services Puskesmas

Private Clinics

Public Hospitals

Private Hospitals

HIV & AIDS Poor * Fair *

TB Fair Poor Poor Poor

Malaria Fair * Fair Fair

(15)

Strictly Confidential © 2014 15

Transition Challenges:

Financing and Programmatic Functions

(16)

Strictly Confidential © 2014

Lessons from the Avahan Transition

16

Early planning and allocation of funds for transition

Continued alignments with government at each stage of

transition, including signing formal MoUs

Provision of technical and managerial support to build domestic

capacity, and institutionalization of support mechanisms

A phased approach to provide space for course correction

Provision of post-transitional support to maintain quality

(17)

Strictly Confidential © 2014

Lessons from USAID family planning transition

17

Systematic phase-out approach required

Need to work on NGO sustainability for a long time

Need technical criteria for phasing-out financing: income not

enough

Need institutionalization of policies

Need to build capacity in public sector for a long time

Until there is high use/prevalence/diffusion of an intervention

difficult to be sustainable

Don’t necessarily need to sustain what you have today

Behavior change at population level through diffusion (use of

products, avoiding risks, or health seeking behavior) may be

enough

(18)

Strictly Confidential © 2014

Lessons for Indonesia: Sustainability and

Transitioning of Key Health Programs

18

Understanding underlying health needs of the population (course

of epidemic)

Estimating resource needs (funding gap) and fiscal space for

sustaining core health programs

Integration of external funded programs into a well functioning

health system to ensure sustainability and enhance health

outcomes

Understanding institutional capacity of the country to deliver

services

Develop a clear transition strategy or plan to ensure smooth

transition from external funded programs to domestically

(19)

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