FCPO Daily Commentary
Brought to you by Phillip Futures Sdn Bhd (362533-U) (A member of PhillipCapital)PALM FCPO MAR18 (2521,-17)
Our Call of The Day:Bursa Malaysia Derivatives FCPO
Lots Changes
Jan18 2,459 -15 2,440 2,468 2,440 3,371 -217 555
Feb18 2,496 -15 2,501 2,506 2,480 24,137 -239 2,442
Mar18 2,521 -17 2,522 2,533 2,508 43,574 -1,402 14,929
Apr18 2,540 -19 2,544 2,552 2,529 35,965 152 2,200
May18 2,550 -20 2,555 2,563 2,541 45,153 -252 2,153
Jun18 2,540 -21 2,554 2,556 2,530 6,921 543 1,250
Jul18 2,522 -24 2,533 2,538 2,517 26,193 -638 1,906
Sep18 2,511 -26 2,529 2,530 2,508 21,217 185 868
Nov18 2,511 -26 2,531 2,531 2,505 19,016 99 386
Jan19 2,540 -26 2,554 2,554 2,554 5,749 -4 4
Mar19 2,558 -26 - - - 5,501 0 -
May19 2,555 -26 - - - 6,508 0 4
Jul19 2,548 -26 - - - 808 -4 4
Sep19 2,533 -26 - - - 238 0 -
Nov19 2,533 -26 - - - 30 0 -
Total 244,381 -1,777 26,701
Spreads
Contract Open High Low Last Vol
Jan18 /Feb18 -40 -35 -50 -48 529
Feb18 /Mar18 -26 -24 -28 -27 1,135
Mar18 /Apr18 -19 -18 -21 -19 1,293
Apr18 /May18 -13 -11 -13 -11 317
Correlated Commodity Market Exchange Rate
Commodities Month Last Change Currency Last
Soybeans MAR 18 956.75 -10.75 USDMYR 4.0652
Soybean Oil MAR 18 32.71 -0.56 USDIDR 13,537
Soybean Meal MAR 18 316.10 -2.40 USDCNY 6.5334
Crude Oil FEB 18 59.84 0.20
DCE Palm Oil MAY 18 5,242 20.00
DCE Soybean Oil MAY 18 5,704 14.00
Physical Palm Oil Market
Commodities Unit Month Bid Ask Value
CPKO Local Delivery (M'sia) RM/mt DEC17 n/a 4927.31 n/a
FOB CPO (Indo) USD/mt JAN18 n/a 632.5 628.75
FOB RBD Palm Olein (M'sia) USD/mt JAN18 n/a 627.50 621.25 FOB RBD Palm Oil (M'sia) USD/mt JAN18 n/a 622.50 n/a
MPOB Demand and Supply Analysis (6 Month Comparison)
Bearish
FCPO 3rd Month Daily Candle Chart
29 December 2017
Crude Palm Oil Futures
Volume Open Interest
Low High Open Change Contact Last
Market Commentary Highlights:
Palm drops on high inventory, subdued related oils. Soybeans fall to 4-month low on South American weather.
Crude Palm Oil
Malaysian palm oil futures dropped on Thursday closed, slipping from the previous session's one-week high, as market anticipate on ample supplies, stronger ringgit and weaker soybean oil dampened sentiment.
The benchmark March 18 slid RM17 to RM2,521 per tonne, prices were traded between RM2,508 and RM2,533 with total traded volume for palm stood at 26,701 lots.
Demand rose by about 1 percent for Dec. 1-25 compared with the same period a month earlier, data released by cargo surveyors Intertek Testing Services (ITS) and Societe Generale de Surveillance (SGS) showed on Tuesday.
In related news, Indonesia trade Ministry said the crude palm oil export tax kept unchanged from the previous month at USD0 per tonne.
Accordi g to the cou tr ’s Natio al Meteorological Ce ter, rai is e pected i so e areas of Chi a’s orth a d ce tral in the next 10 days. In Malaysia, isolated thunderstorms, rain seen in Sabah and Sarawak through to Saturday, according to the Malaysian Meteorological Department. Continuous heavy rain can cause flooding and disrupt harvesting and transport of palm fruit.
The related edible oils almost flat, the May18 soybean oil contract on the Dalian Commodity Exchange was up 0.1 percent, while the Dalian Jan18 palm olein contract also rose 0.5 percent.
We expect palm prices to trade lower tracking overnight sharp dropped in soyoil prices due to improving weather in South America. Also, profit taking activities likely to take place ahead of long weekend.
Soybean (Reuters)
Chicago Board of Trade soybean futures declined on Thursday, with the most-active March contract touching its lowest in nearly four months on improving weather conditions in South America.
Soybeans declined as traders monitored crop weather in South America. Conditions remained largely favorable in Brazil, the world's biggest soy exporter, while much-needed showers were forecast this weekend in parts of Argentina, the No. 3 producer.
Brazil's oilseed processors' association, Abiove, last week left its forecast of Brazil's 2017/18 soybean crop unchanged at 109.5 million tonnes, second only to the record-large 2016/17 harvest of 114 million tonnes.
Additional pressure stemmed from worries that more stringent quality rules on Chinese soybean imports starting in 2018 could stall U.S. sales to the world's largest soybean buyer.
FCPO Daily
Demand and Supply Data Export Quantity Analysis
Date Nov'17 Dec'17 Chg (%) Nov'17 Dec'17 Chg (%)
First 10 days 436,988 364,277 -16.6 439,879 339,289 -22.9 First 15 days 660,465 596,862 -9.6 650,962 581,254 -10.7
First 20 days 891,926 874,022 -2.0 882,943 865,309 -2.0
First 25 days 1,079,427 1,090,622 1.0 1,094,318 1,108,189 1.3 Full month
Nov'17 Chg (%)
Production -3.3
Export -11.9
Import 124.0
Local Disapp -12.2
Stock 16.0
Stock/Use ratio 43.4
Spread (CBOT Soyoil - BMD Crude Palm Oil) Spread (DCE Palm Olein - BMD Crude Palm Oil)
G204
Sources: Thomson Reuters / Bloomberg/ MPOB /ITS/ SGS/ Phillip Futures
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13,479 30,191
2,008,838 1,942,834
1,538,041 1,354,373
1.55 1.08
302,508 265,725
2,203,709 2,556,636
Cargo Surveyor Figures ITS (in tonnes)
(in tonnes) Oct'17 Nov'17 MoM (%)
Malaysia Palm Oil Board Data (MPOB)
PFSB Forecast SGS (in tonnes)
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This publication is solely for information only. It should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for the subscription, purchase or sale of the futures contracts mentioned herein. The publication has been prepared by Phillip Futures Sdn Bhd on the basis of publicly available information, internally developed data and other sources believed to be reliable. Whilst we have taken all reasonable care to ensure that the information contained in this publication is accurate and the opinions are fair and reasonable, it does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this publication. Accordingly, no warranty whatsoever is given and no liability whatsoever is accepted for any loss arising whether directly or indirectly as a result of any person or group of persons acting on such information and advice. This publication was prepared without regard to your specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs. Whilst views and advice given are in good faith, you should not regard the publication as a substitute for the exercise of your own judgement and should seek other professional advice for your specific investment needs or financial situations.
