Analisa Teknikal
Riset Teknikal Saham Harian
Samuel Research 27 Juli 2017
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Mulai Berpeluang Keluar Dari Ancaman Downtrend
Setelah sempat menyentuh Resistance minor di 5,830, IHSG mulai memiliki peluang memperkecil ancaman Downtrend menuju 5,700 (tentu peluang Downtrend masih besar). Technical Analyst memperkirakan IHSG mulai mengakhiri Downtrend menuju 5,700 dan mulai Breakout 5,830 dan mengawali Uptrend menuju 5,910.
Sektor yang layak dipilih adalah : FMCG, Poultry dan Mineral. Sektor untuk Bottom Fishing adalah : Telecom, Toll, Bank dan Residential. Waspadai sektor : Cigarettes dan Auto.
Day Trading Recommendation LQ45 : BBCA dan ANTM Non-LQ45 : WSBP
Swing Trading Recommendation Add : No Change
Drop : No Change Concern : -
Commodity Related : Oil&Gas (MEDC), Coal (ITMG) Consumer Related : Retail (MAPI)
Infrastructure Related : Telecom (TLKM), Toll (JSMR) Interest Related : Bank (BBCA, BBTN, BBRI)
Riset Teknikal Saham Harian
27 July 2017
Day Trading Recommendation
Saham Last Price 1D %Ch Supp.1 Supp.2 Resist.1 Resist.2 Daily Target Cut Loss BBCA 18775 1.1 18580 18390 18930 19090 19175 18400 ANTM 720 2.9 710 690 730 740 736 706 WSBP 472 4.4 450 430 490 500 485 462 BBCA masuk ke dalam Swing Trading Recommendation
Swing Trading Recommendation
Stock 1st Add Date 1st Add Open Price Latest Close % Change Since Add Estimated Target % Upside Potential Since Last Close
Entry Timing ITMG 7-Jul-17 18,350 20,750 13.1% 25,000 20.5% Now
MEDC 18-Jul-17 2,450 2,730 11.4% 3,800 39.2% Now
MAPI 3-Mar-17 5,350 6,050 13.1% 7,650 26.4% Wait TLKM 23-May-17 4,500 4,700 4.4% 5,400 14.9% Wait JSMR 8-May-17 4,750 5,325 12.1% 6,200 16.4% Wait BBCA 23-Mar-17 16,400 18,775 14.5% 20,500 9.2% Wait BBRI 26-Apr-17 13,150 14,775 12.4% 16,800 13.7% Wait BBTN 16-Jan-17 1,900 2,420 27.4% 2,900 19.8% Wait BBCA mendapatkan kenaikan Estimated Target
Riset Teknikal Saham Harian
27 July 2017
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Recommendation Charts
BBCA (Rp18,775) : Breakout Rp18,500, Uptrend Menuju Rp20,500
BBCA berpotensi melanjutkan Uptrend menuju Rp20,500 paska Breakout Rp18,500. Waspadai penurunan di bawah Rp18,200
ANTM (Rp720) : Mengawali Uptrend Dengan Naik Menuju Rp780
ANTM berpotensi mengakhiri Sideways dengan naik menuju Rp780 lalu Breakout dan menuju Rp880. Waspadai penurunan di bawah Rp690
Riset Teknikal Saham Harian
27 July 2017
WSBP (Rp472) : Mengawali Uptrend Dengan Breakout Rp480
WSBP berpotensi naik menuju Rp530 paska Breakout Rp480. Peluang Uptrend semakin kuat setelah WSBP
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27 July 2017 www.samuel.co.id Page 5 of 7
Sectoral Movement
Benchmark 1D %Ch 5D %Ch IHSG (0.25) (0.14)Relation / Sector 1D %Ch 5D %Ch Real Rise Fake Fall Real Fall Fake Rise
Staples (1.06) (4.75) 7.7% 61.5% 30.8% 0.0%
Cigarettes (1.54) (1.23) 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0%
FMCG (0.60) (2.97) 12.5% 62.5% 25.0% 0.0%
Poultry (1.04) (10.06) 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% Relation / Sector 1D %Ch 5D %Ch Real Rise Fake Fall Real Fall Fake Rise Discretionary (0.35) (2.28) 17.6% 17.6% 35.3% 29.4% Auto (0.39) (5.31) 0.0% 0.0% 66.7% 33.3% Healthcare 0.51 2.17 50.0% 50.0% 0.0% 0.0% Pharmacy (0.39) (2.62) 0.0% 50.0% 0.0% 50.0% Retail (0.49) (1.26) 14.3% 14.3% 42.9% 28.6% Media (0.99) (4.37) 33.3% 0.0% 33.3% 33.3%
Relation / Sector 1D %Ch 5D %Ch Real Rise Fake Fall Real Fall Fake Rise Infrastructure (0.52) 0.80 10.5% 47.4% 21.1% 21.1% Cement (0.17) 0.12 0.0% 25.0% 25.0% 50.0% Telecom (0.98) 0.52 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% Construction (0.63) 1.36 20.0% 40.0% 20.0% 20.0% Industrial Area (0.13) 1.86 20.0% 20.0% 40.0% 20.0% Toll (0.70) 0.15 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Relation / Sector 1D %Ch 5D %Ch Real Rise Fake Fall Real Fall Fake Rise Interest 0.11 (1.17) 21.1% 42.1% 15.8% 21.1% Banking (0.01) (0.36) 25.0% 37.5% 25.0% 12.5% Residential 0.24 (1.99) 18.2% 45.5% 9.1% 27.3% Relation / Sector 1D %Ch 5D %Ch Real Rise Fake Fall Real Fall Fake Rise Commodity 1.60 (0.16) 28.6% 23.8% 28.6% 19.0%
Coal 1.43 (4.12) 14.3% 42.9% 14.3% 28.6%
CPO (0.14) (0.38) 0.0% 16.7% 50.0% 33.3%
Mineral 3.94 3.67 75.0% 25.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Oil&Gas 1.18 0.21 50.0% 0.0% 50.0% 0.0% Staples Consumer Related dapat menjadi pilihan utama hari ini
Sektor yang layak dipilih adalah : FMCG, Poultry dan Mineral
Sektor untuk Bottom Fishing adalah : Telecom, Toll, Bank dan Residential Waspadai sektor : Cigarettes dan Auto
Riset Teknikal Saham Harian
27 July 2017
Technical Analysis Glossary
Support : Level harga dimana berpotensi menahan penurunan lebih lanjut Resistance : Level harga dimana berpotensi menahan kenaikan lebih lanjut
Breakout : Pergerakan harga melewati Resistance dari bawah ke atas. Mengindikasikan Uptrend Breakdown : Pergerakan harga melewati Support dari atas ke bawah. Mengindikasikan Downtrend Throwback : Penurunan paksa terjadi Breakout dimana maksimum penurunan adalah Support yang
berasal dari Resistance yang baru saja di-Breakout
Pullback : Kenaikan paska terjadi Breakdown dimana maksimum kenaikan adalah Resistance yang berasal dari Support yang baru saja di-Breakdown
Technical Rebound : Kenaikan sementara di tengah Downtrend. Kenaikan tersebut akan lebih kecil dari penurunan yang segera terjadi
Technical Correction : Penurunan sementara di tengah Uptrend. Penurunan tersebut akan lebih kecil dari kenaikan yang segera terjadi
Bullish Continuation : Pergerakan yang mengindikasikan Uptrend sebelumnya akan berlanjut Bearish Continuation : Pergerakan yang mengindikasikan Downtrend sebelumnya akan berlanjut
Bullish Reversal : Pergerakan yang mengindikasikan Downtrend sebelumnya berubah menjadi Uptrend Bearish Reversal : Pergerakan yang mengindikasikan Uptrend sebelumnya berubah menjadi Downtrend Up Trendline : Support Diagonal ke arah atas yang menandakan pergerakan Uptrend
Down Trendline : Support Diagonal ke arah atas yang menandakan pergerakan Uptrend Day Trading : Strategi trading dengan Holding Period selama 1 hari sampai 2 minggu Swing Trading : Strategi trading dengan Holding Period sampai 3 bulan
DISCLAIMERS : Analyst Certification : The views expressed in this research accurately reflect the personal views of the analyst(s) about the subject securities or
issuers and no part of the compensation of the analyst(s) was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the inclusion of specific recommendations or views in this research. The analyst(s) principally responsible for the preparation of this research has taken reasonable care to achieve and maintain independence and objectivity in making any recommendations. This document is for information only and for the use of the recipient. It is not to be reproduced or copied or made available to others. Under no circumstances is it to be considered as an offer to sell or solicitation to buy any security. Any recommendation contained in this report may not be suitable for all investors. Moreover, although the information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, its accuracy, completeness and reliability cannot be guaranteed. All rights reserved by PT Samuel Sekuritas Indonesia
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Research Team
Andy Ferdinand, CFA Head Of Equity Research, Strategy,
Banking, Consumer andy.ferdinand@samuel.co.id +6221 2854 8148
Rangga Cipta Economist rangga.cipta@samuel.co.id +6221 2854 8396
Muhamad Makky Dandytra, CFTe Technical Analyst makky.dandytra@samuel.co.id +6221 2854 8382
Akhmad Nurcahyadi, CSA Auto, Aviation, Cigarette, Construction
Healthcare, Heavy Equipment, Property akhmad.nurcahyadi@samuel.co.id +6221 2854 8144
Arandi Ariantara Cement, Telecommunication, Utility arandi.ariantara@samuel.co.id +6221 2854 8392
Marlene Tanumihardja Poultry, Retail, Small Caps marlene@samuel.co.id +6221 2854 8387
Sharlita Lutfiah Malik Mining, Plantation sharlita.malik@samuel.co.id +6221 2854 8339
Nadya Swastika Research Associate nadya.swastika@samuel.co.id +6221 2854 8338
Private Wealth Management
Evelyn Satyono Head of PWM / Institutional Sales evelyn.satyono@samuel.co.id +6221 2854 8380
Muhamad Alfatih CSA, CTA, CFTe Senior Technical Portfolio Advisor m.alfatih@samuel.co.id +6221 2854 8129
Ronny Ardianto Institutional Equity Sales ronny.ardianto@samuel.co.id +6221 2854 8399
Clarice Wijana Institutional Equity Sales clarice.wijana@samuel.co.id +6221 2854 8395
Fachruly Fiater Institutional Equity Sales fachruly.fiater@samuel.co.id +6221 2854 8325
Equity Sales Team
Kelvin Long Head of Equities kelvin.long@samuel.co.id +6221 2854 8150
Yulianah Institutional Equity Sales yulianah@samuel.co.id +6221 2854 8146
Lucia Irawati Retail Equity Sales lucia.irawati@samuel.co.id +6221 2854 8173
Online Trading Sales Team
Nugroho Nuswantoro Head of Marketing Online Trading nugroho.nuswantoro@samuel.co.id +6221 2854 8372
Wahyu Widodo Marketing wahyu.widodo@samuel.co.id +6221 2854 8371
