Basic Science and Facts of Climate Change Past, Present and the Future

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Presentation title at-a-glance info (in slide master)

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SEA Climate

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”More and worse floods”

”Rains no longer normal –

difficult to know when to plant”

”Our paddy fields get eaten

away by the sea”

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IPCC – the ‘key reference’ on climate

change

Main findings



Climate change is already happening



It is mostly caused by man



It will continue



The rate of change is alarming



Extreme weather is getting more frequent



It is urgent to stop further warming

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First Question

: Why is it getting warmer?

Answer: The rapid global warming of the past 100 years is

caused mostly by human activity, mainly:

Burning fossil fuels

(e.g. coal, oil, natural gas) at

unprecedented rates, sending “greenhouse gases”

into the atmosphere

Changing agricultural

and land-use practices (agriculture

releases other GHGs, CH4 and NO2)

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Greenhouse gases are acting as a blanket around the earth

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Does anyone know how

many ppm of CO

₂

we have

in the atmosphere today?

Today CO

₂

is higher than it’s been for

hundreds of thousands of years

http://400.350.org/

400 ppm

That’s 120 ppm higher than

the max for 800,000+ yrs

… and the difference

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Second Question

: Along with the GHG the earth is

getting warmer – what does that mean?

Changing rainfall patterns

Sea level rise

Changes in extreme events

Rising temperatures,

heat waves

Melting ice

Ocean acidification

Scientists are

very sure

Less clear, and

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We should

avoid

more than

a 2°Celsius

temperature

rise

in the coming century.

Scientist warnings are clear:

A 2012 World Bank report

summarizes the potential

effects of a 4°warmer

world:

it’s urgent

to limit

GHG emissions.

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In the next few decades,

temperatures will continue to

rise

, even if we almost

completely stop emissions of

GHGs today (

blue line

)

This is because GHGs,

especially CO

2 , stay in the

atmosphere for a long time

Therefore, we have further

climate change “in the pipeline”

because of the emissions

already in the atmosphere

Warming will continue,

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But if, and only if, we cut the

global amount of GHG

emissions quickly, we may

avoid escalating warming

in

the second half of this century

(the

red line

)

If we

act now

to reduce global

emissions, it is still possible to

keep changes within a

“manageable range” for our

children

Warming will continue,

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When the ocean, land and air get warmer,

things change in the climate system…

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Climate varia

bility

and

change

Long term average

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Shift in season and intensity

Sumatra & Java - compared to 1961-90:

Onset of the wet season is

now 10 - 20 days later

Onset of the dry season is

now 10 - 60 days earlier

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Climate Change Projections

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• _{Increased riverine, coastal and urban}

flooding leading to widespread damage to

infrastructure, livelihoods and settlements

(M)

• _{Increased risk of heat-related mortality (H)}

• _{Increased risk of drought-related water and}

food shortage causing malnutrition (H)

Climate Change

Projections

: Asia

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… in addition to sea level rise –

what more?

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One thing is for sure:

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More

certainty

about climate change

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Third Question

:

What does climate change

mean for the humanitarian sector?

Trends we have observed…



_{Weather related disasters doubled over}

the past 2 decades



_{Increase in small- and medium-scale}

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

Weather related disasters doubled over the past 2 decades



Increase small- and medium-scale disasters



More surprises/uncertainties

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Adaptation and Mitigation

Actions Adaptation and

Mitigation Actions Climate Change Anthropogenic Climate Change

RISK

and Land-use Change

EMISSIONS

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Risks = Hazards x Vulnerability x

Exposure



_{The number of hazards is}

increasing



_{More people}

_{are exposed}

to extreme events



_{The vulnerability of people}

and assets is

increasing

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

Changes in

frequency

and/or

intensity

of hazards



Changes in

geographical / seasonal

extent

of hazards



Climate

trends

(temperature, rainfall,

sea level rise) impacting livelihoods etc.



Trends becoming shocks

– lack of

knowledge to cope

IFRC

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Special report on

extreme events and disasters, a

summary for policy makers

Key messages:



_{Disaster risk increases (regardless of climate change)}



_{Extreme events are more frequent and more intense, due to climate change}



_{Stronger emphasis on anticipation and risk reduction needed}



_{Better information available}

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Photo: IFRC, Pakistan floods 2010,



_{Difficult to measure the frequency and intensity}

of floods, but generally there has been an

increasing trend



_{Changes in rainfall patterns and precipitation}

intensity could put more people at risk from

flooding

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Potential impact: Coastal erosion, coastal

flooding and salt water intrusion

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Potential impact: Drought

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Possible impact: Changing disease patterns

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Potential Impact: Melting Ice

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Potential

Impacts: Oceanic Changes



_{Sea levels are rising – at a}

faster rate

Sea level rise

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Ocean acidification damages

coral reefs – reducing their

coastal protection effects

... and fish stocks

decline, eroding

livelihoods for

millions of people

Large scale degradation and/or

loss of coastal and marine

ecosystems



the oceans are becoming more acidic



_{sea surface temperatures are increasing}

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IFRC

Potential Impact: Tropical Cyclones Impacts

Source: NOAA



_{Possibly an increase in the intensity of tropical cyclone}

activity (hurricanes/typhoons), coupled with higher

storm surges due to sea level rise

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Climate Change Fingerprint in

Complex Crises

• increased demand

• failed harvests

• less land for agriculture (a.o. urbanisation)

• biofuels

• distorted markets (ban on exports)

• price speculations

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• Will vulnerable people worldwide have a voice

in geo-engineering decisions?

• Will there be extra funding for humanitarian

work in a geo-engineered future?

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Key Messages



_{Climate Change is already happening and will continue}

to affect us especially the most vulnerable groups



Rate of change is alarming and mostly caused by men



_{CC brings another layer of risk}



_{R = Hazard x Vulnerability x Exposure}



_{We already see a lot of observed changes in disaster}

patterns



Urgent action is a must

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From IFRC President Konoe

issued at the release of the IPCC AR5 WGII

This is the strong confirmation that risks have

been rising in recent decades

The second message emerging from the report is more positive –

Im

mense capacities exist to addressing risks – capacities that can

be even more effective when applied with greater awareness and

investment ahead of potential problems

The third message of the report is about our choices for the future –

Past greenhouse gas emissions have already committed us to

rising risks for several decades to come. This report shows that we

can largely handle those now-inevitable changes. For the second

half of the century, however, we face a bigger choice – one that

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Further information



ipcc.ch



climatecentre.org



ifrc.org