49
REFERENCE
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Proyeksi Kondisi Dunia dan Indonesia 2007
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Idroes, N Ferry and Sugiarto. 2006.
Manajemen risiko Perbankan. DIY
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Jackson, Simon and Roger Flanagan.2002.
A Systematic Approach to
Managing Budget Risk during Project Appraisal.
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http://www.erisk.com
Lam, James. 2003.
Enterprise Risk Management. Hoboken, NJ: John Wiley
& Son.
Mochal, Tom. Create a risk contingency budget using Expected Monetary
Value (EMV) Retrieved on May 9
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PT. Waskita Karya, 2006.
Risalah Rapat Umum Pemegang Saham PT.
Waskita Karya (Persero) Tentang Persetujuan Rencana Kerja dan
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APPENDIX A
Table. Sensitivity analysis cash flow statement
2006 2007 (Best case) 2007 (Moderate case) 2007 (Worst case)
Cash flow from operating activities
Cash received by customers 2,560,500,460,793 3,905,514,343,000 1.525 2,957,554,814,755 1.155 2,448,703,000,000
Cash payment to:
Supplier and Subordinator -2,301,426,464,509 -3,710,238,626,000 0.95 -3,223,147,909,667
-2,409,175,532,000 0.99
Directions and employees -83,855,786,154 -67,230,000,000 -67,230,000,000 -67,230,000,000
Cash received from (to) operating activities 10,329,450,000 -442,893,379,100 0.11 -332,823,094,912 -316,335,638,290 13%
Interest revenue 4,044,663,822 1,590,000,000 1,590,000,000 1,590,000,000
Interest payment -60,170,335,723 -52,000,000,000 12% -65,000,000,000 0.15 -69,333,333,333
Tax payment -93,376,513,973 -33,154,305,700 0.6 -19,256,705,069 0.70 -5,795,728,708 0.80
Net cash flow from operating activities 36,045,474,256 -398,411,967,800 -415,489,799,981 -417,577,232,331
Cash flow from investing activities
Gain from:
Selling (buying) other investment -30,272,188,620 -20,661,212,542 -20,661,212,542 -20,661,212,542
Fixed assets 173,534,700 5,115,000,000 5,115,000,000 5,115,000,000
Fixed assets adding -2,401,304,789 -1,011,818,975 -1,011,818,975 -1,011,818,975
Cash flow from funding activities
Borrowing (payment) of current liabilities 89,214,654,800 190,000,000,000 12% 184,448,975,248 15% 170,000,000,000 16% Borrowing (payment) of long term
liabilities
Increasing (decreasing) special
relationship debt
Payment of wesel debt
Increasing (decreasing) of obligation debt -53,750,000,000 250,000,000,000 250,000,000,000 250,000,000,000 Dividend payment -14,106,185,000 -27,403,170,720 0.19 -13,944,000,000 0.190 -7,800,084,885 0.19 Decreasing (increasing) special
relationship account receivable
Cash flow from (to) funding activities 21,358,469,800 412,596,829,280 420,504,975,248 412,199,915,115
Increasing (decreasing) of net cash flow 24,903,985,347 -2,373,170,037 -11,542,856,250 -21,935,348,733
Cash, beginning of year 60,790,377,615 85,694,362,962 85,694,362,962 85,694,362,962
APPENDIX B
Table. RKAP 2007 budget plan cost curve diagram
Product line QUARTER I QUARTER II QUARTER III QUARTER VI Product line I 136,765 342,790 680,295 1,197,675 Product line II 69,660 229,895 637,985 966,490
Product line III 58,845 182,370 363,870 638,785
Table. Research estimation curve diagram
QUARTER I QUARTER II QUARTER III QUARTER VI Product line I 60,203 257,773 617,623 1,037,985 Product line II 54,210 162,495 467,460 681,500
APPENDIX C
Table. 2006 projects comparison from RKAP 2006 and actual 2006 No. Details RKAP 2006
Actual 2006 1 Tenders participated 454 411 2 Tenders won 254 109 3 Tenders won (%) 55.95% 26.52% 4 Non tender 56 59 5 Amount received 310 168
APPENDIX D
Table. Income statement, cash flow statement, and balance sheet
PERHITUNGAN LABA RUGI
2004 2005 2006
Pendapatan usaha 2.040.237.082.553 2.640.833.032.278 2.769.041.334.792
Beban kontrak (1.840.646.388.096) (2.420.472.410.908) (2.535.945.651.506)
Laba kotor 1 99.590.694.457 220.360.621.370 233.095.683.286
Bagian laba (rugi) bersih kerja sama operasi 12.112.255.630 12.650.850.852 7.535.533.984
Laba setelah bagian laba (rugi)
kerja sama operasi 211.702.950.087 233.011.472.222 240.631.217.270
Beban usaha:
Beban penjualan (6.361.282.668) (6.122.510.430) (4.852.952.390)
Beban umum dan administrasi (92.293.289.411) (112.713.976.491) (97.146.989.542)
(98.654.572.079) (118.836.486.921) (101.999.941.932)
Laba usaha 113.048.378.008 114.174.985.301 138.631.275.338
Pendapatan (beban) bukan usaha
Pendapatan bunga 1.580.882.522 1.754.656.326 4 .044.663.822
Beban pinjaman (38.385.826.399) (54.539.918.287) (60.170.335.723)
Laba (rugi) penjualan aktiva tetap 241.746.107 3.262.740.797 151.990.536
Laba (rugi) kurs - bersih (1.001.509.877) 644.371.700 (1.244.084.694)
Pendapatan/(beban) lain-lain - bersih (10.539.527.832) (1.830.783.353) (1.139.094.825)
(48.104.235.479) (50.708.932.817) (57.915.436.146)
Bagian laba/(rugi) bersih
perusahaan asosiasi 508.809.858 317.581.077 441.424.738
Laba sebelum
pajak penghasilan 65.452.952.387 63.783.633.561 80.715.839.192
Taksiran (beban)/manfaat pajak penghasilan
Pajak kini (18.913.484.487) (22.007.316.144) (21.325.983.785)
Pajak tangguhan 6.148.487.660 8.507.039.388 (4.534.388.673)
( 12.764.996.827) (13.500.276.756) (25.860.372.458)
Laba bersih 52.687.955.560 50.283.356.805 54.855.466.734
Laba usaha per saham 1.884.140 1.427.187 770.174
PERHITUNGAN CASH FLOW 2004 2005 2006
Arus kas dari aktivitas operasi
Penerimaan kas dari pelanggan 1.758.063.806.794 2.267.571.532.574 2.560.500.460.793
Pembayaran kas:
Kepada Pemasok (1.638.917.803.456) (2.268.316.877.832) (2.301.426.464.509)
Beban Usaha (74.989.075.877) (85.043.115.499) (83.855.786.154)
Penghasilan bunga 570.804.989 1.754.656.326 4.044.663.822
Investasi jangka pendek (8.243.170.767) (3.222.200.000) 10.329.450.000
Pembayaran bunga / provisi bank (38.385.826.399) (69.586.093.352) (60.170.335.723
Pembayaran pajak (59.777.547.708) (54.552.565.748) (93.376.513.973)
Kas dari/(digunakan untuk) aktivitas operasi (61.678.812.424) (211.394.663.531) 36.045.474.256
Arus kas dari aktivisas investasi
Penjualan aktiva tetap 9.703.449.294 6.170.860.552 173.534.700
Penambahan aktiva tetap (8.801.457.232) (25.937.961.229 (2.401.304.789)
Penjualan/(penambahan) investasi - - (33.841.000.000)
Penerimaan (Pengeluaran) dari/ke perusahaan asosiasi 171.037.360 - 3.568.811.382
Kas dari/(digunakan untuk) aktivitas investasi 1.073.029.422 (19.767.100.677) (32.499.958.707)
Arus kas dari aktivitas pendanaan
Penambahan (pembayaran) hutang bank 28.920.038.884 292.040.319.976 102.766.461.716
Pembayaran dividen (8.670.322.908) (20.978.483.000) (14.106.185.000)
Pembayaran tantiem (1.256.031.000) (1.141.179.000)
Pembayaran jasa produksi (11.400.040.639) (11.000.009.900)
Pembayaran PKBL (1.573.386.000) (1.410.618.000)
Pembayaran obligasi - (53.750.000.000)
Kas dari/(digunakan untuk) aktivitas pendanaan 20.249.715.976 256.832.379.337 21.358.469.816
Kenaikan kas bersih (40.356.067.026) 2 5.670.615.129 24.903.985.365
Kas dan setara kas, awal tahun 75.475.829.512 35.119.762.486 60.790.377.615
NERACA 2004-2005-2006
2004 2005 2006
AKTIVA LANCAR
Kas dan setara kas 35.119.762.486 60.790.377.615 85.694.362.980
Investasi jangka pendek 14.223.906.250 17.446.106.250 7.116.656.250
Piutang usaha 327.706.905.923 401.663.010.909 388.196.863.638
Piutang retensi 65.692.965.228 130.656.560.451 147.689.255.203
Piutang lain-lain 785.400.812 540.987.880 1.878.884.553
Persediaan 58.605.114.677 103.891.379.939 128.321.580.084
Tagihan bruto kepada pengguna jasa 311.156.059.689 550.439.860.956 738.449.407.636
Pajak dibayar di muka 99.345.090.402 134.338.276.869 167.556.583.135
Uang muka dan biaya dibayar di muka 66.455.719.766 75.166.560.014 63.763.004.741
Jaminan 224.294.148 76.011.798 69.273.998
Jumlah aktiva lancar 979.315.219.381 1.475.009.132.681 1.728.735.872.218
AKTIVA TIDAK LANCAR
Aktiva pajak tangguhan 11.274.084.086 19.781.123.474 15.246.734.801
Investasi pada perusahaan asosiasi 6.943.651.982 7.261.233.059 41.543.657.797
Investasi pada kerja sama operasi 14.143.022.509 23.278.969.544 11.284.882.054
Aktiva tetap 128.716.989.165 142.147.080.189 135.718.361.306
Aktiva lain-lain 5.891.045.230 4.693.587.458 8.223.954.903
Jumlah aktiva tidak lancar 166.968.792.972 197.161.993.724 212.017.590.861
Jumlah aktiva 1.146.284.012.353 1.672.171.126.405 1.940.753.463.079
KEWAJIBAN DAN EKUITAS
KEWAJIBAN JANGKA PENDEK
Hutang usaha 311.360.656.177 388.868.624.549 469.199.928.369
Hutang bank jangka pendek 105.696.895.776 397.737.215.752 500.503.677.468
Hutang bruto kepada pihak ketiga 100.421.121.171 178.674.788.978 329.092.370.184
Hutang pajak 1.142.368.151 3.590.305.014 4.808.605.893
Uang muka kontrak jangka pendek 105.050.217.898 122.901.563.931 159.620.502.380
Beban masih harus dibayar 3.804.675.682 4.814.472.209 4.672.918.024
Pendapatan diterima di muka 224.061.450 85.800.000 10.000.000
Kewajiban lancar lain-lain 12.062.016.991 11.304.593.232 11.950.839.102
Jumlah kewajiban jangka pendek 639.762.013.296 1.161.727.363.665 1.479.858.841.420
KEWAJIBAN JANGKA PANJANG
Uang muka kontrak jangka panjang 128.621.494.754 1 29.804.179.777 58.659.394.025
Hutang obligasi setelah dikurangi bagian
yang akan jatuh tempo dalam satu tahun 98.890.570.000 4 5.436.418.000 45.847.500.000
Estimasi kewajiban manfaat karyawan 18.146.782.952 4 7.864.556.807 30.851.634.744
Jumlah kewajiban jangka panjang 245.658.847.706 223.105.154.584 135.358.528.769
Jumlah kewajiban 885.420.861.002 1.384.832.518.249 1.615.217.370.189
EKUITAS
Modal saham 60.000.000.000 180.000.000.000 180.000.000.000
Selisih penilaian kembali aktiva tetap 118.804.443.332 - -
Saldo laba
Ditentukan penggunaannya 29.370.752.459 57.055.251.351 90.680.626.156
Belum ditentukan penggunaannya 52.687.955.560 50.283.356.805 54.855.466.734
Jumlah ekuitas pemegang saham 260.863.151.351 287.338.608.156 325.536.092.890
Jumlah kewajiban dan ekuitas 1.146.284.012.353 1.672.171.126.405 1.940.753.463.079
APPENDIX E
Table. Probability of research estimation compared to PT. Waskita Karya’s estimation
Product line PTWK estimation Research estimation Probability Product line I 91 79 0.868131868 Office building 12 8 0.666666667 Shopping center 6 6 1 Hotels 11 9 0.818181818 Hospitals 5 5 1 Apartment 16 13 0.8125 Religious facility 15 12 0.8 Industry bulding 26 23 0.884615385 Jabotabek 3 3 1 Surabaya 3 3 1 Medan 4 3 0.75 Denpasar 3 3 1 Bandung 2 2 1 Pekanbaru 2 1 0.5 Other cities 6 5 0.833333333 Foreign 3 3 1 Product line II 77 55 0.714285714 Highway 12 9 0.75 Pantura road 1 1 1 National road 17 12 0.705882353 JORR 1 1 1
Flyover and underpass 8 4 0.5
Roads and bridges 13 12 0.923076923
Airport 7 5 0.714285714
Seaport 8 6 0.75
Foreign 10 5 0.5
Product line III 26 23 0.884615385
Flood control 4 4 1 Bengawan Solo N 1 1 1 Irrigation 8 7 0.875 Coast security 8 6 0.75 Other 5 5 1 Total 194 157 0.809278351