Morning Brief. NH Korindo Sekuritas Indonesia

Morning Brief

Daily | Oct 31 2017

IHSG (Jakarta Composite Index)

Oct 30 5,974.08

Chg -1.20pts (-0.02%)

Volume (bn shares) 85.69

Value (IDR tn) 7.79

Adv 160 Dec 172 Unc 238 Untr 116

Foreign Transaction

(IDR bn)

Buy 3,256

Sell 2,323

Net Buy (Sell) 933

Top Buy NB Val. Top Sell NS Val.

BMRI 198.09 TLKM 132.33

PGAS 165.25 BBTN 113.49

UNTR 57.03 WSKT 38.24

ASII 46.11 BBNI 20.79

BBRI 23.46 LPKR 11.83

LQ-45 Index

Top Gainers & Losers

Gainers % Losers % PGAS 14.1% AKRA -4.6% PTBA 4.6% BBTN -2.5% UNTR 4.4% PWON -2.4% INCO 4.3% WSKT -2.3% BRPT 2.3% HMSP -2.3%

Government Bond Yield & FX

Last Chg. Tenor: 10 year 6.8310% 0.01% USD/IDR 13,582.00 -0.20% KRW/IDR 12.08 0.17%

Global Indexes

Index Last Chg. % Dow Jones 23,348.74 (85.45) -0.36% S&P 500 2,572.83 (8.24) -0.32% Nasdaq 6,698.96 (2.30) -0.03% FTSE 100 7,487.81 (17.22) -0.23% CAC 40 5,493.63 (0.50) -0.01% DAX 13,229.57 12.03 0.09% Nikkei 22,011.67 3.22 0.01% Hang Seng 28,336.19 (102.66) -0.36% Shanghai 3,390.34 (26.48) -0.78% KOSPI 2,501.93 5.30 0.21% EIDO 26.46 (0.16) -0.60%

Commodities

Commodity Last Chg. %

Gold (USD /troy oz.) 1,276.3 2.9 0.23%

Crude Oil (USD /bbl) 54.15 0.25 0.46%

Coal Newcas(USD/ton) 91.10 0.15 0.16%

Gas (USD /mmbtu) 2.97 0.15 0.07%

Nickel LME (USD /MT) 11,675 95.0 0.82%

CPO (MYR/Ton) 2,839 22.0 0.78%

Indonesian Market Recap

IHSG ditutup melemah kemarin. Investor mencerna rilis kinerja dari berbagai perusahaan dengan hasil yang cukup beragam.

Top Losers : Consumer (-1.01%), Infrastructure (-0.43%), Property (-0.31%)

Today’s Outlook: Revisi Reformasi Pajak AS

Untuk hari ini kami mengestimasi IHSG untuk bergerak menguat dengan support

range 5939-5942 dan resistance range 5996-6003. Dari global sentimen positif

datang dari Parlemen AS yang mempertimbangkan penerapan reformasi pajak secara bertahap dengan terlebih dahulu menerapkan tax rate sebesar 20%. Dari domestik sentimen positif datang dari realisasi FDI pada 3Q17 yang tumbuh 12% menjadi Rp111,7 triliun. Hal ini mendukung ekspektasi pertumbuhan ekonomi pada tahun 2018 yang lebih tinggi dari target pemerintah sebesar 5,4%.

JCI Movement

JCI - one month Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg

JCI - intraday

Stocks Recommendation (details on the next page)

Trading Buy: UNVR, ICBP, PTPP

Global Market

United States

Bursa Amerika melemah tadi malam setelah laporan yang mengatakan bahwa Parlemen mempertimbangkan penerapan reformasi pajak secara bertahap. Europe

Bursa Eropa ditutup variatif kemarin. Investor memonitor rilis laporan kinerja perusahaan dan berita dari Spanyol dan Amerika.

Asia

Bursa Asia bergerak variatif kemarin. Investor mencerna rilis laporan kinerja kuartalan perusahaan serta data penjualan ritel Jepang.

Company News

PTPP : Mengincar Pendanaan Surat Utang Rp10 Triliun TPIA : Global Bond Oversubscribed 7,3x

MTDL : Laba Naik 36% AKRA : Laba Naik 28,3%

Domestic & Global News

Investasi Langsung Asing Naik 12% pada Kuartal Ketiga Rencana Tahapan Pemotongan Pajak oleh Parlemen

Indonesia Economic Data

Monthly Indicator Last Prev. BI 7 Day Rev Repo Rate 4.25% 4.25%

FX Reserve (USD bn) 129.40 128.79

Trd Balance (USD bn) 1.76 1.72

Exports Yoy 15.60% 19.24%

Imports Yoy 13.13% 8.89%

Inflation Yoy 3.72% 3.82%

Quarterly Indicator Last Prev.

Real GDP 5.01% 4.94%

Current Acc (USD bn) (4.96) (2.10)

Govt Spending Yoy -1.93% -4.05%

FDI (USD bn) 5.79 (7.71)

Business Confidence 111.63 106.70

Stocks Recommendation

UNVR Last = 49150

Analysis Presiden Joko Widodo menyiapkan stimulus baru pada Januari yang bertujuan memacu belanja konsumen dengan penyediaan lapangan kerja dan sistem pengupahan baru.

Range 48600 – 50475

Action Trading Buy. Cut Loss If Below 48600

ICBP Last = 8825

Analysis ICBP membukukan pertumbuhan laba bersih sebesar 6% y-y pada 3Q17, lebih baik dibandingkan penurunan laba bersih sebesar 3% pada 2Q17.

Range 8700 – 9225

Action Trading Buy. Cut Loss If Below 8700

PTPP Last = 2860

Analysis PTPP menyiapkan rencana penerbitan obligasi senilai Rp7,5-10,0 triliun pada 2018 untk menopang perkembangan bisnis.

Range 2820 - 2960

Action Trading buy. Cut Loss If Below 2860

Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg

Source: Bloomberg

Sector Rotation

Source: Bloomberg

Relative Rotation Graph - Last 10 Days

98 99 100 101 102 103 96 97 98 99 100 101 102 103 104 105 Agriculture Mining Infrastructure Basic Ind. Consumer Finance Misc Ind. Trade Property

Lagging

Improving

Leading

Weakening

Relative Valuation

Source: Bloomberg Last Price End of Last Year Price YTD Change (%) 1 Year Change (%) Market Cap (IDR tn) Price / BVPS Price / EPS (TTM) EV/ EBITDA (TTM) Return on Equity (%) EVA Spread (%) Dividend Yield TTM (%) Sales Growth Yoy (%) EPS Growth Yoy (%) Adjusted Beta JCI Index 12.8 10.2 6,633.5 Finance 1,898.4 BBCA 20,425 15,500 31.8 31.6 503.6 4.0 22.6 N/A 18.9 6.4 1.0 8.6 14.4 0.9 BBRI 15,550 11,675 33.2 27.5 383.6 2.4 13.7 N/A 18.6 12.0 2.8 9.7 4.0 1.3 BMRI 7,075 5,788 22.2 23.3 330.2 2.1 19.6 N/A 10.8 2.5 1.9 6.5 (32.1) 1.3 BBNI 7,600 5,525 37.6 36.3 141.7 1.5 10.3 N/A 15.3 0.7 2.8 15.2 25.3 1.2 BDMN 5,050 3,710 36.1 30.8 48.4 1.3 16.3 N/A 8.2 1.0 1.9 (7.9) 11.5 1.3 BBTN 2,760 1,740 58.6 44.5 29.2 1.4 9.7 N/A 15.5 (2.1) 1.8 14.6 41.1 0.8 BJBR 2,450 3,390 (27.7) 54.1 23.8 2.5 20.1 N/A 12.5 (0.7) 3.6 5.6 (16.2) 0.7 BJTM 700 570 22.8 30.8 10.5 1.4 8.7 N/A 17.8 3.8 6.2 2.5 16.2 1.3 Consumer 1,412.5 HMSP 3,900 3,830 1.8 (1.3) 453.6 14.7 34.9 25.2 42.2 27 2.8 7.2 18.2 1.1 UNVR 49,150 38,800 26.7 10.5 375.0 76.4 55.8 38.5 137.1 128.0 1.7 9.8 9.4 1.2 GGRM 67,675 63,900 5.9 (0.3) 130.2 3.5 18.8 11.1 18.9 7.0 3.8 8.4 3.7 1.2 ICBP 8,825 8,575 2.9 (6.1) 102.9 5.7 31.3 17.6 21.9 17.4 1.7 8.6 20.0 1.5 KLBF 1,620 1,515 6.9 (6.9) 75.9 6.3 32.0 21.0 20.8 6.2 1.4 8.3 14.7 1.2 INDF 8,150 7,925 2.8 (4.1) 71.6 2.4 18.1 N/A 14.5 (3.0) 2.9 4.2 47.8 1.2 ROTI 1,270 1,600 (20.6) (23.3) 7.9 4.7 32.0 18.7 15.3 0.7 1.1 16.0 3.5 0.9 Infrastructure 784.85 TLKM 4,080 3,962 3.0 (2.9) 411.3 4.5 17.9 6.8 25.9 12.2 4.8 13.5 24.4 1.1 PGAS 1,865 2,700 (30.9) (27.1) 45.2 1.1 19.9 9.4 5.1 (5.7) 4.0 (4.4) (23.5) 1.3 JSMR 6,450 4,320 49.3 42.7 46.8 3.2 23.0 14.2 15.5 (3.1) 1.2 69.2 28.7 1.0 EXCL 3,310 2,310 43.3 50.5 35.4 1.7 122.1 6.5 1.4 (11.3) N/A (6.7) N/A 1.0 TBIG 6,700 4,980 34.5 12.1 30.4 22.4 32.2 15.4 55.3 (0.9) 2.2 8.5 (6.3) 0.8 Trade 755.4 UNTR 34,100 21,250 60.5 57.7 127.2 3.0 19.4 9.5 16.3 1.7 2.0 (7.7) 29.8 1.3 LPPF 8,675 15,125 (42.6) (51.9) 25.3 14.2 11.5 7.5 157.4 89.1 5.6 9.9 13.3 1.4 SCMA 2,140 2,800 (23.6) (19.2) 31.3 7.8 20.8 14.5 39.7 22.4 1.7 6.8 (1.5) 0.8 AKRA 7,250 6,000 20.8 2.1 29.0 4.0 30.8 24.0 17.8 (3.5) 2.1 (23.0) (3.0) 0.9 MNCN 1,580 1,755 (10.0) (24.8) 22.6 2.4 19.0 9.8 12.9 (0.2) 2.7 4.4 17.4 1.3 ACES 1,400 835 67.7 63.7 24.0 7.2 31.4 22.6 24.8 9.7 1.2 4.1 20.8 1.0 BMTR 610 615 (0.8) (28.2) 8.7 0.9 N/A 6.2 (0.9) (4.1) 0.8 (1.1) 194.0 1.2 Property 421.0 BSDE 1,725 1,755 (1.7) (20.5) 33.2 1.5 11.3 11.2 13.8 (4.2) 0.3 5.0 (17.0) 1.2 LPKR 690 720 (4.2) (23.8) 15.9 0.8 18.0 15.2 4.7 (7.9) 0.3 18.6 64.8 1.1 PWON 620 565 9.7 (13.9) 29.9 3.0 16.8 11.4 19.6 3.6 0.7 4.7 32.4 1.1 WSKT 2,150 2,550 (15.7) (17.9) 29.2 2.3 6.6 11.8 28.9 (2.7) 1.8 68.1 63.5 0.9 SMRA 1,010 1,325 (23.8) (38.8) 14.6 2.3 43.3 13.0 5.5 (2.2) 0.5 (4.0) (63.6) 1.2 CTRA 1,200 1,335 (10.1) (24.1) 22.3 1.7 17.1 13.8 9.0 (2.2) 0.4 (10.3) (33.6) 0.9 PTPP 2,860 3,810 (24.9) (27.0) 17.7 1.8 16.0 8.4 16.9 (2.6) 1.7 15.8 13.5 0.9 WIKA 1,995 2,360 (15.5) (16.2) 17.9 1.5 12.7 N/A 14.8 (1.0) 1.7 15.0 68.3 0.8 ADHI 2,180 2,080 4.8 (4.0) 7.8 1.4 19.9 11.3 7.4 (3.9) 1.2 17.8 (56.6) 0.8 ASRI 388 352 10.2 (13.4) 7.6 1.0 11.5 8.9 8.9 (2.5) 0.4 (2.4) (14.7) 1.1 APLN 272 210 29.5 (5.6) 5.6 0.6 7.1 5.8 9.7 1.7 0.7 0.6 (21.3) 0.8 Misc Ind. 400.4 ASII 8,000 8,275 (3.3) (2.7) 323.9 2.8 18.6 12.4 15.8 (4.5) 2.1 (1.7) 4.8 1.2 SRIL 368 230 60.0 44.9 6.8 1.4 8.1 6.2 18.1 3.3 0.8 9.3 6.7 0.8 Basic Ind. 504.7 INTP 21,400 15,400 39.0 30.1 78.8 3.3 33.6 23.3 9.7 (5.6) 4.3 (13.7) (11.2) 1.3 SMGR 10,775 9,175 17.4 9.4 63.9 2.3 17.5 13.5 13.4 (2.8) 2.8 (3.0) 0.0 1.1 CPIN 3,350 3,090 8.4 (9.5) 54.9 3.7 27.0 11.8 14.1 1.9 1.7 27.9 29.1 1.1 WTON 655 825 (20.6) (26.4) 5.7 2.2 19.0 10.8 12.7 1.2 1.5 31.3 56.7 0.7 Mining 345.0 ADRO 1,835 1,695 8.3 15.8 58.7 1.3 9.9 4.7 13.9 5.4 2.3 (6.0) 119.3 1.3 INCO 2,920 2,820 3.5 7.4 29.0 1.2 N/A 17.3 (0.6) (11.3) N/A (26.0) N/A 1.4 PTBA 11,425 12,500 (8.6) (4.0) 26.3 1.9 6.6 4.4 32.2 13.3 2.5 2.4 1.2 1.3 ANTM 645 895 (27.9) (27.9) 15.5 0.9 N/A 23.3 (2.4) (9.3) N/A (13.5) N/A 1.1 ITMG 22,175 16,875 31.4 54.8 25.1 2.0 9.0 3.7 22.7 12.5 7.1 (14.0) 100.0 0.9

Agriculture 111.3

AALI 14,675 16,775 (12.5) (3.8) 28.2 1.6 12.5 7.2 13.4 1.9 3.5 8.1 203.2 0.7 SSMS 1,485 1,400 6.1 (2.3) 14.1 3.9 18.8 12.0 22.5 1.4 1.3 14.8 9.2 0.8 LSIP 1,505 1,740 (13.5) (1.3) 10.3 1.3 10.7 5.7 12.5 0.7 2.3 (8.2) (4.4) 0.9

Company News

Domestic & Global News

Investasi Langsung Asing Naik 12% pada Kuartal Ketiga

Badan Koordinasi Penanaman Modal mengatakan bahwa total realisasi investasi, termasuk investasi langsung asing, naik 13,7% menjadi IDR176,6 triliun pada kuartal ketiga. Investasi langsung asing pada kuartal ketiga naik 12% y-y menjadi IDR111,7 triliun. Investasi langsung domestik berjumlah IDR64,9 triliun pada kuartal ketiga, yang naik 16,8% dibandingkan investasi langsung domestik pada 3Q16. Ketua BKPM Lembong mengatakan bahwa pemerintah fokus pada investasi yang lebih menarik dari Rusia dan Timur Tengah, tanpa meninggalkan investasi dari AS. (Bloomberg)

Rencana Tahapan Pemotongan Pajak oleh Parlemen

Parlemen mempertimbangkan penerapan bertahap atas pemangkasan tarif pajak perusahaan yang diajukan oleh Presiden Donald Trump dan pemimpin partai Republik. Parlemen akan menentukan pemotongan pajak sebesar 20% pada 2022. Tahapan pemotongan pajak sedang didiskusikan dan belum mencapai putusan akhir. (Bloomberg)

PTPP : Mengincar Pendanaan Surat Utang Rp10 Triliun

PT PP Tbk (PTPP) membutuhkan dana investasi sekitar Rp21 triliun tahun depan. Oleh karenanya, PTPP kembali berniat menggalang dana dari pasar modal, salah satunya instrumen obligasi. Manajemen mempertimbangkan untuk melakukan penawaran umum berkelanjutan antara Rp5 triliun hingga Rp10 triliun tahun depan. Rencana itu mempertimbangkan asumsi PTPP akan memenuhi sekitar 30% kebutuhan investasi. (Kontan)

TPIA : Global Bond Oversubscribed 7,3x

PT Chandra Asri Petrochemical Tbk (TPIA) sukses menerbitkan global bond senilai USD300 juta atau sekitar Rp4,05 triliun. Total permintaan yang masuk mencapai USD2,2 miliar atau oversubscribed 7,33 kali. TPIA menetapkan kupon sebesar 5,1% per tahun. (Kontan)

MTDL : Laba Naik 36%

PT Metrodata Electronics Tbk (MTDL) mencatatkan laba bersih yang dapat diatribusikan kepada entitas induk senilai Rp155 miliar selama 9M17 atau tumbuh 36% y-y. Adapun penjualan tercatat Rp7,2 triliun (2,8% y-y). Manajemen mengatakan, walaupun pasar teknologi informasi terus tergerus, MTDL tetap bertumbuh dengan terus melakukan diversifikasi jenis produk yang dijual. (Bisnis Indonesia)

AKRA : Laba Naik 28,3%

PT AKR Corporindo Tbk. (AKRA) mencatatkan kenaikan laba periode berjalan sebesar 28,3% menjadi Rp1,02 triliun pada 9M17. Kinerja positif tersebut didorong peningkatan pendapatan menjadi Rp13,43 triliun (22,65% y-y). Manajemen mengungkapkan kenaikan tersebut terutama didukung oleh peningkatan harga produk-produk yang didistribusikan, serta peningkatan permintaan bahan kimia dasar di Indonesia. (Bisnis Indonesia).

Global Economic Calendar

Date Country Hour

Jakarta Event Period Actual Consensus Previous

Monday UK 16:30 Mortgage Approvals Sep 66.2k 66.0k 66.6k

30 - Oct EU 17:00 Consumer Confidence Oct F -1 -1 -1

USA 19:30 Personal Income Sep 0.40% 0.40% 0.20%

USA 19:30 Personal Spending Sep 1.00% 0.80% 0.10%

GER 20:00 CPI MoM Oct P 0.00% 0.10% 0.10%

GER 20:00 CPI YoY Oct P 1.60% 1.70% 1.80%

Tuesday JPN 06:30 Jobless Rate Sep 2.80% 2.80% 2.80%

31- Oct JPN 06:50 Industrial Production MoM Sep P -1.10% -1.60% 2.00% JPN 06:50 Industrial Production YoY Sep P 2.50% 2.00% 5.30%

CHN 08:00 Manufacturing PMI Oct 51.6 52.1 52.4

EU 17:00 Unemployment Rate Sep 9.00% 9.10%

EU 17:00 GDP SA QoQ 3Q A 0.50% 0.60%

EU 17:00 GDP SA YoY 3Q A 2.40% 2.30%

USA 21:00 Conf. Board Consumer Confidence Oct 121 119.8 JPN Tentative BOJ Policy Balance Rate 31-Oct -0.10% -0.10%

Wednesday JPN 07:30 Nikkei Japan PMI Mfg Oct F -- 53

01 - Nov CHN 08:45 Caixin China PMI Mfg Oct 51 51

UK 14:00 Nationwide House PX MoM Oct 0.20% 0

UK 14:00 Nationwide House Px NSA YoY Oct 2.20% 0

UK 16:30 Markit UK PMI Manufacturing SA Oct 55.9 56

USA 19:15 ADP Employment Change Oct 190k 135k

USA 20:45 Markit US Manufacturing PMI Oct F 54.5 55

USA 21:00 ISM Manufacturing Oct 59.1 61

Thursday USA 01:00 FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound) 1-Nov 1.25% 1.25%

02 - Nov USA 01:00 FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound) 1-Nov 1.00% 1.00% GER 15:55 Unemployment Change (000's) Oct -10k -23k GER 15:55 Markit/BME Germany Manufacturing PMI Oct F 60.5 60.5 EU 16:00 Markit Eurozone Manufacturing PMI Oct F 58.6 58.6 UK 19:00 Bank of England Bank Rate 2-Nov 0.50% 0.25%

UK 19:00 BOE Asset Purchase Target Nov 435b 435b

USA 19:30 Initial Jobless Claims 28-Oct -- 233k

Friday USA 19:30 Change in Nonfarm Payrolls Oct 310k -33k

03 - Nov USA 19:30 Unemployment Rate Oct 4.20% 4.20%

USA 19:30 Trade Balance Sep -$43.5b -$42.4b

USA 21:00 Factory Orders Sep 1.00% 1.20%

USA 21:00 Durable Goods Orders Sep F -- 2.20%

Corporate Calendar

Date Event Company

Monday Extraordinary Shareholder Meeting MLBI, HERO, OKAS

30 - Oct

Tuesday Extraordinary Shareholder Meeting LMAS

31 - Oct

Wednesday Extraordinary Shareholder Meeting NISP, INDY

01 - Nov IPO Listing MCAS

Thursday Extraordinary Shareholder Meeting TRUS, AISA, MEDC, PLIN, BBNI, RELI 02 - Nov

Source: Bloomberg

Domestic Economic Calendar

Date Hour

Jakarta Event Period Actual Consensus Prev

Tuesday Tentative Money Supply M2 YoY Sep -- 10.00%

31 - Oct Tentative Money Supply M1 YoY Sep -- 12.30%

Wednesday 07:30 Nikkei Indonesia PMI Mfg Oct -- 50.4

01 - Nov 11:00 CPI Core YoY Oct 2.98% 3.00%

11:00 CPI YoY Oct 3.67% 3.72%

11:00 CPI NSA MoM Oct 0.10% 0.13%

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