Morning Brief. NH Korindo Sekuritas Indonesia

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Morning Brief

Daily | Sept 26, 2017

IHSG (Jakarta Composite Index)

Sept 25 5,894.61

Chg -17.09pts (-0.29%)

Volume (bn shares) 75.16

Value (IDR tn) 5.80

Adv 107 Dec 211 Unc 247 Untr 126

Foreign Transaction

(IDR bn)

Buy 1,991

Sell 2,145

Net Buy (Sell) (154)

Top Buy NB Val. Top Sell NS Val.

BBRI 164.37 TLKM 84.73

BBCA 49.01 UNVR 68.38

BBNI 15.22 BMRI 52.86

BBTN 11.59 INDY 30.36

BUMI 10.29 PGAS 22.54

LQ-45 Index

Top Gainers & Losers

Gainers % Losers % INCO 1.9% BMTR -4.1% PWON 1.6% ANTM -3.7% MNCN 1.5% ADRO -3.3% SCMA 1.4% PTBA -2.9% INDF 1.2% PTPP -2.3%

Government Bond Yield & FX

Last Chg. Tenor: 10 year 6.2880% -0.14% USD/IDR 13,325.00 0.10% KRW/IDR 11.78 0.30%

Global Indexes

Index Last Chg. % Dow Jones 22,296.09 (53.50) -0.24% S&P 500 2,496.66 (5.56) -0.22% Nasdaq 6,370.59 (56.33) -0.88% FTSE 100 7,301.29 (9.35) -0.13% CAC 40 5,267.13 (14.16) -0.27% DAX 12,594.81 2.46 0.02% Nikkei 20,397.58 101.13 0.50% Hang Seng 27,500.34 (380.19) -1.36% Shanghai 3,341.55 (10.98) -0.33% KOSPI 2,380.40 (8.31) -0.35% EIDO 26.68 (0.27) -1.00%

Commodities

Commodity Last Chg. %

Gold (USD /troy oz.) 1,310.8 13.5 1.04%

Crude Oil (USD /bbl) 52.22 1.56 3.08%

Coal Newcas(USD/ton) 96.15 0.25 0.26%

Gas (USD /mmbtu) 2.92 0.25 -1.35%

Nickel LME (USD /MT) 10,580 160.0 1.54%

CPO (MYR/Ton) 2,691 (46.0) -1.68%

Indonesian Market Recap

IHSG ditutup turun kemarin dipicu penurunan pada sektor pertambangan dipicu

kekuatiran terkait kondisi surat utang di China. Top Losers: Mining (-1,39%),

Trade (-0,57%), Finance (-0,43%)

Today’s Outlook: Ketegangan Korea Utara Kembali Memanas

Untuk hari ini kami mengestimasi IHSG untuk bergerak melemah dengan

support range 5854 - 5861 dan resistance range 5914-5917. Sentimen negatif

datang dari global di mana Korea Utara menuduh bahwa Amerika Serikat

berniat memulai perang dengan cara mengirim pesawat bomber. Selain itu

Korea Utara menyatakan bahwa mereka memiliki hak untuk menembak

pesawat AS tersebut. Sentimen negatif juga datang dari China di mana Fitch

memperingatkan ada satu surat utang pemerintah China berpotensi default,

yang dapat memicu default di surat utang lainnya.

JCI Movement

JCI - one month Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg

JCI - intraday

Stocks Recommendation (details on the next page)

Trading Buy: AKRA, AALI, ANTM

Global Market

United States

Bursa Amerika ditutup turun kemarin dipicu oleh sektor teknologi dan

ketegangan geopolitik Korea Utara.

Europe

Bursa Eropa bergerak naik kemarin. Investor mencerna hasil pada pemilu

Jerman.

Asia

Bursa Asia bergerak variatif kemarin. Investor mencerna perkembangan pemilu

di Jerman dan New Zealand.

Company News

TPIA

: Membukukan Kenaikan Laba Bersih 32%

JPFA

: Buyback 900.000 saham

INDY

: Membeli Saham Kideco US$677,5 Juta

BALI

: Memperoleh Pinjaman Rp130 Miliar

Domestic & Global News

Defisit anggaran 2018 jadi 2,19% dari PDB

Korea Utara Menuduh AS Menyatakan Perang dan Menyatakan Memiliki Hak

Indonesia Economic Data

Monthly Indicator Last Prev. BI 7 Day Rev Repo Rate 4.25% 4.50%

FX Reserve (USD bn) 128.79 127.76

Trd Balance (USD bn) 1.72 (0.27)

Exports Yoy 19.24% 41.12%

Imports Yoy 8.89% 54.02%

Inflation Yoy 3.82% 3.88%

Quarterly Indicator Last Prev.

Real GDP 5.01% 4.94%

Current Acc (USD bn) (4.96) (2.10)

Govt Spending Yoy -1.93% -4.05%

FDI (USD bn) 5.79 (7.71)

Business Confidence 111.63 106.70

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Stocks Recommendation

AKRA

Last = 7075

Analysis

Harga minyak dunia melonjak ke posisi

USD52,22 tertinggi sejak April ditopang

ekspektasi

pemulihan

permintaan

dan

perpanjangan pembatasan produksi.

Range

6875 – 7300

Action

Trading Buy. Cut Loss If Below 6875

AALI

Last = 14850

Analysis

Indonesia dapat mengekspor 8 juta ton CPO ke

Uni Eropa hingga 2020 seiring diterimanya

standar CPO Indonesia oleh Uni Eropa.

Range

14725 – 15500

Action

Trading Buy. Cut Loss If Below 14725

ANTM

Last = 650

Analysis

Harga emas dunia melonjak 1,09% kemarin ke

posisi USD1.311,70 per troy ounce dipicu

komentar Korea Utara terhadap aksi militer

AS.

Range

640-685

Action

Trading buy. Cut Loss If Below 640

Source: Bloomberg

Sector Rotation

Source: Bloomberg

Relative Rotation Graph - Last 10 Days

98 99 100 101 102 97 98 99 100 101 102 103 Agriculture Mining Infrastructure Basic Ind. Consumer Finance Misc Ind. Trade Property

Lagging

Improving

Leading

Weakening

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Relative Valuation

Source: Bloomberg Last Price End of Last Year Price YTD Change (%) 1 Year Change (%) Market Cap (IDR tn) Price / BVPS Price / EPS (TTM) EV/ EBITDA (TTM) Return on Equity (%) EVA Spread (%) Dividend Yield TTM (%) Sales Growth Yoy (%) EPS Growth Yoy (%) Adjusted Beta JCI Index Finance 1,864.1 BBCA 19,675 15,500 BBRI 15,675 11,675 BMRI 6,575 5,788 BBNI 7,500 5,525 BDMN 5,325 3,710 BBTN 3,270 1,740 BJBR 2,580 3,390 BJTM 680 570 Consumer 1,420.0 HMSP 3,910 3,830 UNVR 49,700 38,800 GGRM 67,150 63,900 ICBP 8,900 8,575 KLBF 1,705 1,515 INDF 8,625 7,925 ROTI 1,275 1,600 Infrastructure 831.37 TLKM 4,650 3,962 PGAS 1,580 2,700 JSMR 5,700 4,320 EXCL 3,780 2,310 TBIG 6,575 4,980 Trade 695.0 UNTR 30,275 21,250 LPPF 9,750 15,125 SCMA 2,230 2,800 AKRA 7,075 6,000 MNCN 1,355 1,755 ACES 1,145 835 BMTR 585 615 Property 417.2 BSDE 1,780 1,755 LPKR 750 720 PWON 645 565 WSKT 1,865 2,550 SMRA 1,060 1,325 CTRA 1,155 1,335 PTPP 2,510 3,810 WIKA 1,845 2,360 ADHI 2,020 2,080 ASRI 402 352 APLN 294 210 Misc Ind. 377.7 ASII 7,800 8,275 SRIL 352 230 Basic Ind. 464.1 INTP 18,800 15,400 SMGR 9,950 9,175 CPIN 2,720 3,090 WTON 565 Mining 305.7 ADRO 1,755 1,695 INCO 2,650 2,820 PTBA 9,975 12,500 ANTM 650 ITMG 19,500 16,875 11.3 10.1 6,488.5 26.9 28.2 485.1 4.0 22.5 N/A 19.3 6.6 1.0 8.6 14.4 1.0 34.3 30.4 386.7 2.6 13.9 N/A 19.4 11.9 2.7 9.7 4.0 1.4 13.6 12.9 306.8 2.0 19.0 N/A 10.8 4.3 2.0 6.5 (32.1) 1.4 35.7 35.7 139.9 1.5 10.4 N/A 15.6 1.4 2.8 15.2 25.3 1.4 43.5 33.1 51.0 1.4 17.2 N/A 8.2 0.6 1.8 (7.9) 11.5 1.5 87.9 66.8 34.6 1.7 12.2 N/A 15.2 (1.6) 1.5 14.6 41.1 0.8 (23.9) 55.4 25.0 2.6 21.2 N/A 12.5 (1.1) 3.4 5.6 (16.2) 0.9 19.3 20.4 10.2 1.4 8.4 N/A 17.8 3.9 6.4 2.5 16.2 1.2 2.1 (3.0) 454.8 16.4 36.0 26.4 45.7 31 2.8 7.2 18.2 1.0 28.1 10.8 379.2 77.3 56.5 38.9 137.1 128.9 1.7 9.8 9.4 1.0 5.1 4.9 129.2 3.4 18.6 11.0 18.9 7.8 3.9 8.4 3.7 1.0 3.8 (4.8) 103.8 5.8 27.9 17.3 21.9 13.8 1.7 8.6 20.0 1.3 12.5 (0.6) 79.9 6.6 33.7 22.2 20.8 6.2 1.3 8.3 14.7 1.2 8.8 (1.4) 75.7 2.5 19.2 9.1 14.5 (2.7) 2.7 4.2 47.8 1.2 (20.3) (20.3) 6.5 4.7 32.1 15.7 15.3 0.8 1.1 16.0 3.5 0.9 17.4 10.2 468.7 5.4 21.4 7.9 26.3 13.9 4.2 13.5 24.4 1.0 (41.5) (44.4) 38.3 0.9 13.7 7.8 6.6 (5.0) 4.8 (4.4) (23.5) 1.1 31.9 22.1 41.4 2.9 20.3 13.2 15.5 (3.2) 1.4 69.2 28.7 1.1 63.6 51.2 40.4 1.9 139.5 7.1 1.4 (12.0) N/A (6.7) N/A 1.3 32.0 8.2 29.8 21.9 31.6 15.2 55.3 (0.7) 2.3 8.5 (6.3) 0.8 42.5 76.0 112.9 2.6 17.2 8.3 16.3 1.3 1.8 (7.7) 29.8 1.4 (35.5) (49.0) 28.4 16.0 12.9 8.5 157.4 90.4 5.0 9.9 13.3 1.1 (20.4) (19.5) 32.6 8.1 21.7 15.1 39.7 21.9 1.6 6.8 (1.5) 1.0 17.9 6.8 28.3 3.9 27.8 20.7 14.5 (1.2) 2.1 (23.0) (3.0) 0.7 (22.8) (32.3) 19.3 2.1 16.3 8.6 12.9 0.4 3.1 4.4 17.4 1.1 37.1 29.4 19.6 6.3 24.4 19.0 28.1 8.5 1.4 4.1 20.8 1.4 (4.9) (31.6) 8.3 0.9 N/A 6.1 (0.9) (4.4) 0.9 (1.1) 194.0 1.5 1.4 (17.6) 34.3 1.5 11.5 11.4 14.2 (2.6) 0.3 5.0 (17.0) 1.5 4.2 (33.0) 17.3 0.9 23.8 14.5 4.0 (7.2) 0.3 18.6 64.8 1.0 14.2 - 31.1 3.3 18.5 12.7 19.4 2.1 0.7 4.7 32.4 1.4 (26.9) (29.6) 25.3 2.2 7.5 13.0 22.5 (2.9) 2.0 68.1 63.5 0.9 (20.0) (37.8) 15.3 2.5 45.5 13.4 5.5 (3.6) 0.5 (4.0) (63.6) 1.8 (13.5) (27.6) 21.4 1.7 16.5 13.4 9.0 (3.9) 0.4 (10.3) (33.6) 1.4 (34.1) (37.7) 15.6 1.5 14.1 7.4 16.9 (2.3) 2.0 15.8 13.5 0.9 (21.8) (20.6) 16.5 1.4 11.8 N/A 14.8 (1.4) 1.8 15.0 68.3 1.0 (2.9) (13.3) 7.2 1.3 18.5 10.7 7.4 (4.0) 1.3 17.8 (56.6) 1.0 14.2 (15.2) 7.9 1.0 12.0 9.1 8.9 (2.6) 0.4 (2.4) (14.7) 1.3 40.0 1.4 6.0 0.7 5.6 5.8 13.3 1.9 0.7 0.6 (21.3) 0.9 (5.7) (7.4) 315.8 2.7 18.1 12.1 15.8 (5.5) 2.2 (1.7) 4.8 1.6 53.0 60.0 6.5 1.4 7.9 6.7 19.2 1.9 0.9 9.3 6.7 0.7 22.1 3.9 69.2 2.9 29.5 20.2 9.7 (6.3) 4.9 (13.7) (11.2) 1.5 8.4 (4.3) 59.0 2.1 16.2 12.6 13.4 (3.1) 3.1 (3.0) 0.0 1.3 (12.0) (20.5) 44.6 3.0 21.9 9.7 14.1 2.1 2.1 27.9 29.1 1.1 825 (31.5) (33.9) 4.9 2.0 18.0 10.1 11.9 (0.4) 1.7 31.3 56.7 1.2 3.5 46.3 56.1 1.3 9.7 4.6 13.9 4.3 2.4 (6.0) 119.3 1.6 (6.0) (2.2) 26.3 1.1 N/A 8.2 0.0 (8.9) N/A (26.0) N/A 1.0 (20.2) 1.3 23.0 1.8 6.8 4.5 28.9 10.1 2.9 2.4 1.2 1.3 895 (27.4) 0.8 15.6 0.9 N/A 23.5 (2.4) (8.3) N/A (13.5) N/A 0.8 15.6 86.2 22.0 1.8 8.1 3.2 22.7 12.4 8.1 (14.0) 100.0 0.9

Agriculture 113.3

AALI 14,850 16,775 (11.5) (4.5) 28.6 1.6 12.7 N/A 13.5 1.9 3.2 8.1 203.2 0.6 SSMS 1,500 1,400 7.1 (8.5) 14.3 4.0 19.0 12.1 22.5 1.4 1.2 14.8 9.2 0.8 LSIP 1,405 1,740 (19.3) (8.2) 9.6 1.2 10.2 5.2 12.5 2.4 2.5 (8.2) (4.4) 0.6

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Company News

Domestic & Global News

Defisit anggaran 2018 jadi 2,19% dari PDB

Pemerintah dan Badan Anggaran (Banggar) DPR akhirnya menyepakati defisit anggaran untuk RAPBN 2018 sebesar Rp

325,94 triliun atau 2,19% dari produk domestik bruto (PDB), tetap dari usulan awal dalam nota keuangan. Jumlah itu lebih

rendah dari target defisit dalam APBN-P 2017 yang ditetapkan sebesar Rp 397,24 triliun atau 2,92% dari PDB. Dan lebih

rendah dibanding outlook APBN-P tahun ini yang sebesar Rp 362,9 triliun atau 2,67% dari PDB. (kontan)

Korea Utara Menuduh AS Menyatakan Perang dan Menyatakan Memiliki Hak untuk Menembak Pesawat Pembom

Pada Senin, 25/09, Menteri Luar Negeri Korea Utara menuduh Presiden Donald Trump menyatakan perang dan

menyatakan bahwa Korea Utara memiliki hak untuk menembak pesawat pembom AS. Ri Yong Ho, Menteri Luar Negeri

Korea Utara, meyatakan bahwa Pyongyang dapat menyerang pesawat AS meskipun pada saat pesawat tersebut tidak

terbang di wilayah Korea Utara. “Seluruh dunia harus tahu bahwa AS terlebih dahulu menyerukan perang” ucap Ri Yong

Ho.

TPIA : Membukukan Kenaikan Laba Bersih 32%

PT Chandra Asri Petrochemical Tbk (TPIA) membukukan

laba bersih sebesar US$ 174,2 juta pada 1H17 (+32% y-y).

Dari sisi pendapatan bersih, TPIA membukukan US$

1.195,3 juta (+35,5% y-y). (Kontan)

JPFA : Buyback 900.000 saham

PT Japfa Comfeed Indonesia Tbk (JPFA) melakukan

pembelian saham kembali (buyback) dengan jumlah

saham yang dibeli sebanyak 900.000 saham pada 25

September 2017. Harga rata-rata per saham yakni Rp

1.155,56 per saham. Sebelumnya, Rabu (20/9), Japfa juga

melakukan buyback saham sebanyak 891.600 saham pada

harga Rp 1.165,56 per saham. (Kontan)

INDY : Membeli Saham Kideco US$677,5 Juta

PT Indika Energy Tbk (INDY) bersama anak usahanya, PT

Indika Inti Corpindo mengakuisisi 45% saham PT Kideco

Jaya Agung senilai US$677,5 juta. Dengan demikian,

kepemilikan Indika pada Kideco bertambah menjadi 91%.

Kideco

merupakan

produsen

batubara

dengan

penambangan batubara terbuka di atas lahan konsesi

seluas 50.921 ha di Kalimantan Timur. (Investor Daily)

BALI : Memperoleh Pinjaman Rp130 Miliar

PT Bali Towerindo Sentra Tbk (BALI) mendapatkan fasilitas

pinjaman sebesar Rp130 miliar dari PT Bank Mandiri

(Persero) Tbk. Manajamen BALI mengatakan pendanaan

tersebut akan digunakan untuk pendanaan investasi

reguler. (Bisnis Indonesia)

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Global Economic Calendar

Date

Country

Hour

Jakarta

Event

Period

Actual

Consensus

Monday

JPN

07:30

Nikkei Japan PMI Mfg

Sep P

52.6 --

52.2 25 - Sep

GER

15:00

IFO Business Climate

Sep

115.2

115.9

115.9 GER

15:00

IFO Expectations

Sep

107.4

107.7

107.9 GER

15:00

IFO Current Assessment

Sep

123.6

124.6

124.6 Tuesday

USA

21:00

New Home Sales

Aug

590k

571k

26 - Sep

USA

21:00

Conf. Board Consumer Confidence

Sep

119.5

122.9 Wednesday

EU

15:00

M3 Money Supply YoY

Aug

4.60%

4.50%

27 - Sep

USA

19:30

Durable Goods Orders

Aug P

0.90%

-6.80%

Thursday

EU

16:00

Consumer Confidence

Sep F

-1.2

28 - Sep

GER

19:00

CPI MoM

Sep P

0.10%

GER

19:00

CPI YoY

Sep P

1.80%

USA

19:30

GDP Annualized QoQ

2Q T

3.10%

3.00%

USA

19:30

Initial Jobless Claims

23-Sep

--

259k

USA

19:30

Wholesale Inventories MoM

Aug P

--

0.60%

Friday

JPN

06:30

Jobless Rate

Aug

2.80%

29 - Sep

JPN

06:30

Job-To-Applicant Ratio

Aug

1.53

1.52 JPN

06:30

Natl CPI YoY

Aug

0.70%

0.40%

JPN

06:50

Industrial Production MoM

Aug P

1.80%

-0.80%

CHN

08:45

Caixin China PMI Mfg

Sep

51.5

51.6 GER

14:55

Unemployment Change (000's)

Sep

-5k

UK

15:30

Mortgage Approvals

Aug

--

68.7k

UK

15:30

GDP QoQ

2Q F

--

0.30%

UK

15:30

GDP YoY

2Q F

--

1.70%

USA

19:30

Personal Income

Aug

0.30%

0.40%

USA

19:30

Personal Spending

Aug

0.10%

0.30%

USA

20:45

Chicago Purchasing Manager

Sep

57.5

58.9 USA

21:00

U. of Mich. Sentiment

Sep F

95.2

95.3

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Date

Hour

Jakarta

Event

Period

Actual Consensus

Friday

Tentative Money Supply M2 YoY

Aug

--

9.20%

29 - Sep

Tentative Money Supply M1 YoY

Aug

12.20%

Source: Bloomberg

Domestic Economic Calendar

Corporate Calendar

Date

Event

Company

Monday

Extraordinary Shareholder Meeting

IKAI

25 - Sep

IPO Listing

MDKI

Tuesday

Extraordinary Shareholder Meeting

BNLI

26 - Sep

Wednesday Annual Shareholder Meeting

BIPI, CNTB, RIGS

27 - Sep

Thursday

Extraordinary Shareholder Meeting

AMIN

28 - Sep

Annual Shareholder Meeting

SQMI

Friday

Annual & Extraordinary Shareholder Meeting

ENRG

29 - Sep

Extraordinary Shareholder Meeting

MITI

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