INVESTASI DAN PENDAPATAN ASLI DAERAH
Hendri Saparini, Ph.D
saparini@coreindonesia.org
www.coreindonesia.org
Indonesia Ekonomi Penting Dunia
Pertumbuhan Stabil dan Tertinggi Ke 3 dan GDP No. 16 Dunia
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
%
0
5
10
15
20
South…
United…
Argentina
Turkey
Indonesia
Korea
Mexico
Australia
India
Canada
Italy
Russia
Brazil
United…
France
Germany
Japan
China
United…
Thousand Billion
Penduduk Terbesar No. 4 Dunia dan SDA Melimpah
Berpotensi menjadi salah satu
production base
dunia
Ranking
Product
Exported Value
(bill. US$)
Share Export
(%)
Share in world
exports (%)
Ranking in world
exports
1
Coal
24.29
12.8
19
2
2
Petroleum gases
20.52
10.8
5
5
3
Palm oil & its fraction
17.60
9.3
46
1
4
Crude petroleum oils
12.29
6.5
1
23
5
Natural rubber
7.86
4.1
22
3
6
Copper ores and
concentrates
2.59
1.4
5
5
7
Coconut (copra)
2.46
1.3
45
1
8
Petroleum coke
2.38
1.3
11
2
12
Unwrought tin
2.05
1.1
34
1
13
Plywood
2.01
1.1
14
2
MP3EI: Enam Koridor Ekonomi
Tiap Daerah memiliki potensi dan daya saing berbeda
Mega economic centers
Economic centers
Sumatera Corridor:
Ce ter for Productio a d
Processing of Natural
Resources and As
Natio ’s E ergy Reser es
Kalimantan Corridor:
Ce ter for Productio
and Processing of
National Mining and
E ergy Reser es
Sulawesi Corridor:
Ce ter for Productio
and Processing of
National Agricultural,
Plantation, Fishery, Oil &
Gas, a d Mi i g
Papua
–
Maluku Islands
Corridor:
Ce ter for De elop e t
of Food, Fishery, Energy
a d Natio al Mi i g
Java Corridor:
Dri er for Natio al
Industry and Service
Pro isio
PMA Primer dan Sekunder Akan Tumbuh Lebih Tinggi
Indonesia tujuan investasi utama
Promising Countries For Japanese
FDI (JBIC)
American business representatives:
popular location in ASEAN for
business expansion
UNCTAD: Indonesia’s ranking rose from
Investasi PMA
(skala kiri)
Investasi PMDN
(skala kiri)
TK PMDN
(skala kanan)
TK PMA
(skala kanan)
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
R
IB
U
O
R
ANG
TRI
LIU
N
R
UP
IAH
Sumber: BKPM
Penanaman Modal Asing 2013
Industri kendaraan bermotor mendominasi
Lainnya 9%
Transportasi , Gudang &
Komunikasi 5% Pertanian 6% Listrik, Gas dan Air 8% Pertambang an 17% Industri Lainnya 15% Ind. Kertas dan Percetakan 7% Industri Makanan 13% Ind. Logam, Mesin & Elektronik 21%
Ind.
Kendaraa
n
Bermotor
24%
PMA Menurut Sektor
Dominasi Manufaktur
Industri
Manufaktur
55%
Kimia dan Farmasi
20%
Penanaman Modal Domestik, 2013
Industri makanan masih menjadi primadona
Lainnya
4% Pertanian 5%
Konstruksi 7%
Transportasi , & Komunikasi
13%
Pertambang an 13% Listrik, Gas
dan Air 25%
Industri Lainnya 12%
Ind. Mineral Non Logam
10%
Ind. Kertas dan Percetakan
14% Ind. Logam,
Mesin & Elektronik
16%
Ind. Kimia
dan Farmasi
14%
PMDN Menurut Sektor
Dominasi Manufaktur
Industri
Manufaktur
33%
Makanan
Industri
34%
...ketergantungan tinggi pada impor
impor
raw material
dan
intermediate goods
Sumber: BI
0.0 20.0 40.0 60.0 80.0 100.0 120.0 140.0 160.0 180.0 200.0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
M
il
iar
US
$
Struktur Impor: 70% Bahan Baku dan Penolong
Ketergantungan harus diselesaikan dengan membangun supporting industri
textiles rubber and plastics products fabricated metal products, except machinery and equipment other transport equipment computer, electronic and optical products basic metals electrical equipment wearing apparel leather and related products chemicals and chemical products machinery and equipment n.e.c. repair and installation of machinery and equipment pharmaceutical products
Defisit Transaksi Berjalan Tidak Mudah Diselesaikan
De
fisit neraca minyak, pendapatan dan jasa, akibat permasalahan
struktural
Barang , 1,641 Nonmigas, 4,637
Minyak, -6,497
Gas, 3,501
Jasa - jasa, -2,313
Pendapatan, -5,694
-10,000 -8,000 -6,000 -4,000 -2,000 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000
M
il
li
o
n
s
o
f US
D
ASEAN ECONOMIC COMMUNITY
ASEAN COMMUNITY
ASEAN SOCIAL AND CULTURAL
COMMUNITY
ASEAN POLITICAL AND SECURITY
COMMUNITY
Single Market and Production Base
Competitive Economic Region
Equitable Economic Development
Integration into the Global Economy
Free Flow of Goods
Free Flow of Services Initiative for ASEAN Integration
Competition Policy Coherent approach
towards external economic relations
Enhanced participation in global
supply networks SME Development
Freer Flow of Capital
Free Flow of Skilled Labour
Consumer Protection
Priority Integration Sectors
Food, Agriculture, Forestry
Intellectual Property Rights
Infrastructure Development
Taxation
Neraca Perdagangan Intra-ASEAN:
kinerja Indonesia relatif paling buruk, defisit makin melebar
perlu strategi yang tidak memperlebar defisit perdagangan & neraca transaksi berjalan
(10)
(5)
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
Milyar US$
Singapura
Thailand
Malaysia
Vietnam
Filipina
INDONESIA
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
US$ Milyar
Thailand
Singapura
Filipina
Vietnam
Malaysia
Indonesia
Perdagangan Jasa ASEAN
defisit Indonesia terbesar dan persisten
Indonesia hanya tinggal mengandalkan strategi Non-Tariff Barriers
kerjasama ekonomi yang agresif, mengakibatkan
penurunan Import Tariff yang tanpa strategi
India
(2013)
Brazil
(2011)
China
(2011)
Russia
(2013)
Indonesia
(2011)
All products
13.9
12.2
12.0
10.1
4.8
Agricultural
43.3
11.2
22.6
23.4
13.6
Neraca Perdagangan Indonesia-China
pasca CAFTA, defisit semakin membengkak
Export Import
Trade Balance
-20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Mi
liar
U
S$
Neraca Perdagangan Indonesia-Jepang
pasca JIEPA, non migas terus mengalami defisit
Export Import Trade Balance 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
M ili a r U S $
Value of Export & Import
Oil & gas
Non-oil and gas (10) (5) 5 10 15 20
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
M ili a r U S $ Trade Balance
Kinerja Pertumbuhan Ekonomi
Tidak menyelesaikan kesenjangan, kemiskinan dan pengangguran
Aceh Bengkulu DKI Jakarta Jawa Barat Banten Bali
Nusa Tenggara Barat Nusa Tenggara Timur
Kalimantan Tengah Kalimantan Timur
Sulawesi Utara Gorontalo Sulawesi Barat Maluku Papua Barat Papua 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35
0 2 4 6 8 10 12
Pover
ty
(
%)
Open Unemployment Rate (%)
HIGH POVERTY
LOW UNEMPLOYMENT
Sumber: BPS, @CORE
K
ese
nj
anga
n
Meleb
ar
K
elas
me
nengah
baru
pesat,
k
em
isk
inan
mas
ih
sangat
tinggi
45
81
93
134
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
1999
2003
2009
2010
Millions
(25
%
p
opu
l
(56
Su
mb
er
:A
D
B
, B
an
k D
u
n
ia
0 10 20 30 40
D KI Jaka
Terimakasih
Mendorong investasi bukan sekadar
mendulang Pendapatan Asli Daerah.
