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SMART MONEY

June 2018

By:

Evan Lie Hadiwidj aj a

(2)

BANKING SECTOR

H e a t M a p

Source: KSEI , Sinarm as I nvest m ent Research

D e gr e e of ch a n ge s in ow n e r sh ip

+

-Loca l PF

Loca l M F

Loca l I S

Loca l I B

Fore ign PF

Fore ign M F

Fore ign I S

Fore ign I B

Ba nk ing

Ce m e nt

Consum e r St a ple s

Coa l

Const ruct ion

M e dia

Pla nt a t ion

Prope rt y

Re t a il

Te le com m unica t ion

Toba cco

N ot e s:

(3)

BANKING SECTOR

Ba n k in g Se ct or

Av e r a ge for e ign ow n e r sh ip in t h e ba n k in g se ct or

Av e r a ge loca l m u t u a l fu n d ow n e r sh ip

Av e r a ge loca l pe n sion fu n d ow n e r sh ip

Av e r a ge for e ign m u t u a l fu n d ow n e r sh ip

We see cont inuous for eign capit al out flow due t o r ecent curr ency inst abilit y . How ev er, w e observ e gradual accum ulat ion

fr om local PF and MF back ed by an incr easingly at t ract ive valuat ion. Going forward, w e expect credit expansion t o accelerat e

st em m ed by rising dom est ic consum pt ion and posit ive changes in social assist ance program s.

Source: KSEI , Sinarm as I nvest m ent Research

75.2%75.6% 74.8%75.0% 75.1%

75.6%

71.1%71.5% 71.7%71.1% 70.3%

% Foreign Ownership

5.3%

Average of % local PF

6.7%

Average of % local MF

17.2% 16.4%

17.4% 17.3%

18.9% 19.1% 18.9% 19.2% 18.9% 18.9% 18.8% 18.7% 19.0% 19.0% 18.8% 18.7% 19.1% 19.8% 20.1%20.4%

21.0%21.5%

22.1% 22.4% 22.4%22.7% 22.7% 23.0% 23.7%

24.8% 25.1%25.9% 25.8% 25.6% 26.1% 26.1% 26.2% 26.1% 26.7% 26.4% 26.2%25.7%

25.2%24.7%

(4)

Source: KSEI , Sinarm as I nvest m ent Research

Despit e gradual accum ulat ion fr om for eign MF, we have not seen dist inct m ov em ent fr om local PF and MF as out look

rem ains uncert ain due t o ov er supply in t he indust ry. While t he m aj orit y of t he cem ent player s had int ended t o incr ease t he

ASP, we see m arket share and m argin t o be challenged by com pet it ion from newcom ers and rising coal prices.

BANKING SECTOR

Ce m e n t Se ct or

77.8% 78.6%79.0%

79.4% 78.6%

77.4%77.8%77.6%77.9% 77.7%

77.4% 77.5% 77.3% 77.1%76.9%76.6% 76.8%77.4% 77.9%77.6% 77.8%

79.3% 83.9%83.6%

85.2%84.9% 85.0% 85.0%85.6% 85.5% 85.4% 85.9%86.3%85.8% 85.8%

85.2%85.7%85.5% 85.5%

86.2% 86.1% 86.3% 86.3% 86.4% 86.1%

70.0% 72.0% 74.0% 76.0% 78.0% 80.0% 82.0% 84.0% 86.0% 88.0%

% Foreign Ownership

4.1% 3.8%4.0%

4.2% 4.6%

5.5% 5.5% 5.5% 5.5% 5.5% 5.6% 5.5% 5.5% 5.4% 5.4% 5.5% 5.5% 5.4% 5.4%5.7%5.6% 5.6%

5.4% 5.4% 5.3% 5.4% 5.3% 5.3%5.3% 5.3% 5.3% 5.2%

5.2% 5.2% 5.1% 5.1%5.1% 5.0%5.2% 5.2% 5.2% 5.2% 5.2% 5.2% 5.2%

0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0%

Average of % local PF

5.0%4.9% 4.4%

4.1% 4.6%

3.9%

3.8% 3.9% 3.7%3.7% 3.8% 3.7% 3.9%

4.3% 4.5%

4.2% 4.0%

3.6% 3.2%

3.0% 2.8% 2.8% 2.8% 2.8%

2.6% 2.4%

2.2% 2.0%

1.8% 1.7% 1.7% 1.7% 1.7% 1.8% 2.1%

2.4% 2.3% 2.4%2.4% 2.2% 2.2%

2.0% 2.0% 1.9% 2.0%

0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0%

Average of % local MF

16.9% 17.2%17.4% 17.9% 17.7%

16.2% 16.5% 18.0%

18.9% 19.0% 18.8%

18.4%18.7% 18.7% 18.5% 18.4%18.2% 18.2% 18.2% 18.4% 18.3%18.8% 19.2%

18.8%19.2% 19.4%

19.6% 19.8%20.1% 19.8%19.6%20.0% 20.4%19.6% 19.8% 19.5%19.9% 20.0% 20.1%20.3% 20.6%20.9% 20.9% 20.7% 21.5%

0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0%

Average of % foreign MF

Av e r a ge for e ign ow n e r sh ip in t h e ce m e n t se ct or

Av e r a ge loca l m u t u a l fu n d ow n e r sh ip

(5)

Source: KSEI , Sinarm as I nvest m ent Research

Ther e has been a const ant st ruggle bet ween local and for eign ownership in t he sect or , which r epr esent 48% and 52%

respect ively. Nonet heless, w e cont inue t o like t he sect or driven by bet t er consum pt ion and at t ract ive risk/ reward from a

valuat ion st andpoint .

BANKING SECTOR

Con su m e r St a ple s Se ct or

61.2% 61.6% 63.8% 64.5% 63.9% 63.6%

62.6% 61.8% 61.3%60.9% 60.1% 60.3% 60.4% 60.2% 60.0% 59.8% 60.1% 59.6% 59.7% 59.7% 60.2% 61.1%62.0% 62.0% 59.0%57.6%

55.6% 55.2% 54.7% 54.4% 54.2% 55.5% 54.2% 54.3% 54.0%53.6% 53.9% 53.8% 53.7% 53.9% 53.4% 53.5% 52.8% 52.3% 51.8%

0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% 60.0% 70.0%

% Foreign Ownership

3.4% 3.2%

3.9%4.1% 4.1% 4.0%

4.4% 4.5%4.5% 4.6%4.7% 4.7% 4.6%4.5% 4.4% 4.3% 4.2% 4.2%4.0%

3.8% 3.7% 3.7% 3.4%3.3%

3.8% 4.2%

4.6%4.7% 5.1% 5.2%

5.4%5.3% 5.8%

6.5% 6.4% 6.4% 6.5%6.7% 6.9%7.1%

7.5%7.8% 7.8% 7.9% 8.0%

0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% 7.0% 8.0% 9.0%

Average of % local PF

9.1% 9.2%

7.1% 7.1% 7.0% 7.9%8.1%

8.8%9.1% 9.3%

9.9% 9.8%

9.5% 9.5% 9.7%9.9% 9.9% 10.0% 10.1%10.3%9.9%

9.1% 8.6%

8.3% 9.7%

10.2% 11.0% 11.1%

10.8% 10.6%10.5% 10.6% 10.6% 10.2%10.6%

10.9% 10.9% 10.7%10.6% 10.2% 10.2%10.5% 10.6%

10.8% 10.8%

0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% 12.0%

Average of % local MF

15.5% 16.1%

13.1%12.8%13.0% 12.8% 12.5% 12.3%12.1%

11.5%

11.0% 10.9% 11.0%11.3% 11.2% 11.3%11.6% 11.4% 11.5% 11.6% 11.7%

12.0% 12.1% 11.8%12.5%12.1% 11.9%

11.7% 11.5% 11.4% 11.5%11.8% 11.8% 11.9% 11.9% 11.7%

11.3% 11.4% 11.5% 11.3% 11.2% 10.9% 10.9%

10.5% 10.4%

0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% 12.0% 14.0% 16.0% 18.0%

Average of % foreign MF

Av e r a ge for e ign ow n e r sh ip in t h e con su m e r st a ple s se ct or

Av e r a ge loca l m u t u a l fu n d ow n e r sh ip

(6)

Source: KSEI , Sinarm as I nvest m ent Research

Gradual accum ulat ion is seen fr om for eign MF despit e r educt ion fr om local PF. We r em ain bullish on t he sect or as coal price

rem ained st r ong during June boost ed by rising dem and fr om sum m er season. Not e t hat Newcast le coal price reached

$114/ Mt at t he end of June, increased by 4% m om .

BANKING SECTOR

Coa l Se ct or

42.5%41.7%43.0% 43.5%44.3%

45.7% 45.7% 45.1% 45.1% 45.4%46.2% 46.1%45.3% 44.2%

43.0% 43.2%44.1% 42.6% 41.9%40.9%

40.0% 40.5% 40.3% 38.2%

35.1% 35.7% 35.3% 34.7%

33.4% 33.8% 33.5% 34.0%34.3% 34.6%

35.0%34.0%35.0% 34.7% 34.7% 35.5%37.0% 36.8% 36.5% 37.2% 37.6%

% Foreign Ownership

6.1% 6.0%

Average of % local PF

6.3%

Average of % local MF

11.9% 9.8%

12.8% 12.9% 10.9%11.1% 11.1%

11.6% 11.8% 11.8% 12.5% 12.4%

11.7%12.0% 12.2%

0.0%

Average of % foreign MF

Av e r a ge for e ign ow n e r sh ip in t h e coa l se ct or

Av e r a ge loca l m u t u a l fu n d ow n e r sh ip

(7)

CONSTRUCTION SECTOR

Source: KSEI , Sinarm as I nvest m ent Research

We see a slight upt ick in for eign MF ownership paired wit h local PF cont inuing t heir upward t r end in accum ulat ing owner ship

despit e flat ov erall st ock perform ance in t he sect or. We believe bot h foreign MF and local PF will cont inue t heir accum ulat ion

as new cont ract and P&L achievem ent t end t o accelerat e during t he second half of t he year.

BANKING SECTOR

32.3% 32.5%33.4%32.1% 31.8%33.4%32.5% 34.8%

36.7% 37.1% 35.8%

37.4% 37.8%38.5% 39.0%37.6%38.7% 41.2%

42.6% 39.4% 39.0%

37.8% 37.2% 36.5% 36.9%38.1%

38.9%40.3% 40.2% 40.0% 39.7% 39.8% 41.3% 40.7%

39.5%40.4% 40.2% 38.7% 38.3%37.7%

36.6%

% Foreign Ownership

8.2%

Average of % local PF

20.6% 25.1%

22.2% 22.3% 28.9%

25.8%25.3%26.1%

24.6%25.1% 25.0% 25.2% 24.9% 24.9% 24.8% 25.3%24.3%23.7%24.6% 24.2%23.8% 21.8%

19.8% 19.4% 19.3% 19.1% 19.7%20.0% 18.3%

16.6% 15.3%

14.2% 14.0% 14.3% 13.6% 13.5%13.2% 13.0%13.7% 15.9%

17.4%18.0% 17.2% 16.8% 16.7%

0.0%

Average of % local MF

7.3%

10.7%11.0%10.5% 12.1% 12.2% 12.2% 12.2%

11.4%

12.4%12.7%12.4% 12.3% 12.3% 12.3% 12.1% 12.4% 12.4% 12.0% 12.2%

12.7% 12.7%12.9% 13.4%13.6%

13.2% 13.0%12.7%13.0%

0.0%

Average of % foreign MF

Av e r a ge for e ign ow n e r sh ip in t h e con st r u ct ion se ct or

Av e r a ge loca l m u t u a l fu n d ow n e r sh ip

(8)

We see for eign owner ship inched downward due t o a huge dr op fr om for eign individual in MNCN. How ev er, we see

accum ulat ion from local PF, MF and foreign MF.

BANKING SECTOR

M e dia Se ct or

Source: KSEI , Sinarm as I nvest m ent Research

22.5% 22.8%

24.0% 26.6%

28.9%

30.1%30.8% 30.3% 30.6% 30.6% 30.2% 30.1% 30.2% 30.4% 30.5% 30.2% 30.4% 30.6%31.1% 31.4%

32.0% 32.3% 32.4%33.5% 33.2%32.4% 32.4% 32.3% 32.5% 32.4% 32.4% 32.6% 32.5% 32.5% 32.8% 32.9%33.3% 33.8% 33.2% 32.9% 32.9% 32.5% 32.7% 33.5% 32.8%

0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% 30.0% 35.0% 40.0%

% Foreign Ownership

0.7% 0.6% 0.6%

0.7% 0.7%

0.5%

0.4%0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4%

0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4%0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4%

0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4%0.4%0.4% 0.4% 0.4%0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4%

0.4%0.4% 0.3%0.4% 0.4%

0.3%0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.4%

0.0% 0.1% 0.2% 0.3% 0.4% 0.5% 0.6% 0.7% 0.8%

Average of % local PF

3.3% 3.2%

2.9%2.9% 3.2%

2.6% 2.5%

2.4%

2.3% 2.3% 2.4%2.4% 2.4% 2.5%2.5%

2.7% 2.6%

2.5%2.4% 2.4%2.5%2.4% 2.3%

2.1% 2.3%

2.4%2.4% 2.3%

2.1% 2.0%2.0%

1.8% 1.8% 1.8% 1.5% 1.4%

1.3%1.4% 1.6%

1.8% 2.2% 2.3%2.3%

2.4%2.5%

0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 3.0% 3.5%

Average of % local MF

6.9% 6.5%

7.8% 9.0%9.3% 9.4%

9.9%10.1% 10.2% 10.0% 9.9%

9.6% 9.6% 9.7% 9.6%9.3% 8.7%

8.4% 8.4% 8.8%9.0% 9.0%9.2%

9.3% 9.4% 9.5% 9.0% 9.0% 9.0% 8.9%

8.7% 8.6%8.9%9.1%8.7% 8.8%8.9% 8.4%

7.8% 7.7%7.9% 8.4% 8.6%8.2%

8.9%

0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% 12.0%

Average of % foreign MF

Av e r a ge for e ign ow n e r sh ip in t h e m e dia se ct or

Av e r a ge loca l m u t u a l fu n d ow n e r sh ip

(9)

No significant m ov em ent as w e see lack of cat alyst in t he sect or. We r em ain neut ral on t he sect or on t he back of w eak CPO

price which pot ent ially leads t o poor profit abilit y from CPO plant ers ( AALI and LSI P) .

BANKING SECTOR

Pla n t a t ion Se ct or

Source: KSEI , Sinarm as I nvest m ent Research

46.8% 41.3% 42.1%42.3% 41.5%

44.1%

42.9%41.9% 42.0%44.0%45.5% 44.7%42.2% 37.1% 37.0%

35.2%

33.9% 33.7% 34.4% 34.6% 34.4%34.7% 35.1% 34.3%

36.5% 36.4% 36.9% 35.8%35.0%36.0% 36.5% 36.2% 35.9%37.0% 37.0% 37.2% 36.6% 36.4%

0.0%

% Foreign Ownership

7.3% 6.8%7.0%

11.1% 12.8%12.6%12.9%

12.5% 12.6% 12.6%12.9% 12.8%

11.7% 11.5% 11.6% 11.5% 11.4%11.2% 11.2% 11.7%

12.4% 12.4% 12.5% 13.4% 13.5%

12.7% 12.5%12.8% 12.7% 12.7%12.5%

12.1% 12.1% 12.1%11.9% 12.0% 12.1% 12.1%

13.7% 13.7% 13.6% 13.5% 13.5% 13.6% 13.6%

0.0%

Average of % local PF

17.5% 15.6% 15.5% 15.6%

16.9% 16.8% 17.0% 14.5% 10.3% 10.5% 10.4%

9.3%

Average of % local MF

14.5% 17.1%17.6%

12.8% 11.8% 11.9%

11.4% 11.4%11.1% 12.2% 12.2%

13.5% 13.7% 13.5% 12.3% 12.5%

11.9%11.5%11.8%12.4% 12.7% 12.9%

12.3% 12.3% 11.8%12.3% 12.3%

12.6% 12.6% 12.5%13.0% 13.0% 12.9% 13.2% 13.3%13.6%

14.1% 14.0% 14.1%

0.0%

Average of % foreign MF

Av e r a ge for e ign ow n e r sh ip in t h e pla n t a t ion se ct or

Av e r a ge loca l m u t u a l fu n d ow n e r sh ip

(10)

We see an incr ease in local MF owner ship as BI r elaxed m acr o prudent ial policy, which will be applied st art ing August 1

st

,

2018, t o give a br eat h of fr esh air t o t he sect or. We ar e caut iously opt im ist ic on t he sect or as we believe t he r elaxat ion will

ease developers’ cash flow and support supply- dem and.

BANKING SECTOR

Pr ope r t y Se ct or

Source: KSEI , Sinarm as I nvest m ent Research

46.3%47.5% 47.6% 47.6%46.1% 46.9%47.3%46.3%47.3% 46.9% 46.6% 46.6% 46.9% 46.3% 46.4% 46.3% 46.9%47.9% 48.1% 47.8% 47.7%

48.8% 49.4% 48.9% 49.3% 48.7% 48.8%47.5% 47.9% 48.3%49.1% 49.8% 44.5%

42.3% 42.2% 41.7% 40.0%

38.8%

35.0% 35.2% 34.9% 34.7% 34.7% 34.6% 34.3%

0.0%

% Foreign Ownership

2.3%

Average of % local PF

7.5% 7.5%

Average of % local MF

4.9%

Average of % foreign MF

Av e r a ge for e ign ow n e r sh ip in t h e pr ope r t y se ct or

Av e r a ge loca l m u t u a l fu n d ow n e r sh ip

(11)

RETAIL SECTOR

Source: KSEI , Sinarm as I nvest m ent Research

For eign flow has been st abilizing backed by SSSG im pr ov em ent , which r eflect s st r onger pur chasing pow er com par ed t o prior

year s. I n addit ion, we expect bet t er operat ing efficiency driven by new m er chandising sy st em being im plem ent ed and

non-perform ing st ore closures.

BANKING SECTOR

67.7%67.5%67.8% 68.0%

68.3%68.1%

65.2% 65.2% 65.0% 63.9%

64.6% 65.1%

64.2% 62.9% 62.9% 63.0%

63.7% 63.2%

62.8%63.2% 61.9%

61.7% 61.7% 62.6%62.3%62.8%

64.7%

% Foreign Ownership

1.9%

Average of % local PF

7.5%

Average of % local MF

18.3%19.1% 19.7%

21.1% 22.3%

23.9%

23.3% 23.0% 23.3% 23.5%23.7% 23.4% 23.3%24.2%

24.9% 25.1%25.5% 25.2% 25.0%25.9% 26.4% 26.4%27.2%

27.8%28.7%

29.2% 29.1% 29.1% 29.0% 29.4% 29.3% 29.6%29.9% 30.0% 29.9%29.4% 29.3%28.8% 28.8%

30.2% 30.5% 30.4%31.0%29.9% 29.6%

0.0%

Average of % foreign MF

Av e r a ge for e ign ow n e r sh ip in t h e r e t a il se ct or

Av e r a ge loca l m u t u a l fu n d ow n e r sh ip

(12)

TELECOMMUNICATION SECTOR

Source: KSEI , Sinarm as I nvest m ent Research

Ov er sold and at t ract ive. We see st r ong accum ulat ion fr om local MF despit e t he decline in for eign ownership. Meanwhile, w e

t urn bullish on t he sect or as t elco players hav e incr eased t heir dat a pricing, which will be a r elief t o t heir m argins and give

85.4%86.0% 86.1% 85.9%

86.5% 86.5%87.0% 86.8% 86.7% 86.3% 86.0%85.8%

86.9%86.6% 86.6% 84.3%84.7%

85.5% 85.0%

84.2% 85.2%

84.0% 83.8% 83.7% 83.2% 83.0%83.4%

84.3% 84.0%

83.2% 82.4%

81.5%

79.7%80.0% 79.9% 79.8% 79.8% 79.3% 79.0%

% Foreign Ownership

1.9%2.0%

Average of % local PF

5.0%

Average of % local MF

20.9% 20.0%

21.7% 21.7%22.1% 22.6%

21.9% 21.9% 21.6% 21.7% 22.0% 21.7% 22.0%22.5% 22.6% 22.7%23.2% 22.8% 22.9% 22.8% 22.8% 23.3% 23.7% 24.1%

25.0%

24.5% 24.3% 24.2% 24.4%25.0% 25.4% 25.6%

24.9% 25.1% 25.2% 24.7%24.2%

23.5% 23.5%23.0%23.5% 23.7%24.0% 24.8%

Average of % foreign MF

Av e r a ge for e ign ow n e r sh ip in t h e t e le com m u n ica t ion se ct or

Av e r a ge loca l m u t u a l fu n d ow n e r sh ip

(13)

TOBACCO SECTOR

Selling pressur e fr om foreign MF m ay serv e as a headwind t o t he sect or despit e gradual accum ulat ion fr om local PF and MF.

Howev er, w e expect st ock appr eciat ion in t he near t erm due t o bet t er consum pt ion which would t ranslat e t o cigaret t e

volum e recovery.

BANKING SECTOR

Toba cco Se ct or

Source: KSEI , Sinarm as I nvest m ent Research

69.5%72.1% 71.7% 72.1% 72.4%69.1% 69.3% 68.6% 68.0% 68.0% 68.2% 68.5%

62.9%64.5% 64.5% 63.6% 63.4%61.8% 62.0%63.0% 64.1%

66.6% 66.5% 66.0% 65.6%64.5%

55.4% 55.2% 54.4% 54.9% 54.7%56.1% 55.9% 56.0% 55.1%53.7% 53.1% 54.0% 53.4% 53.4% 51.6%

% Foreign Ownership

1.9%

Average of % local PF

11.2% 10.1% 10.1%

9.7% 9.5% 10.5% 10.8% 10.5%11.2%

11.7% 11.5% 11.5% 16.5%

16.0% 16.3% 16.9%

17.9%18.3% 18.2%17.6% 16.7%

14.6% 14.4% 13.1% 12.8%

14.0% 15.8% 15.8% 15.8%

15.4% 15.2% 14.4% 14.2%

13.5% 13.7% 14.8%

15.8% 15.9%16.4% 16.5% 18.3%

Average of % local MF

8.8% 9.0% 10.1%

11.7% 14.4%

13.8% 13.8% 13.8% 14.1%14.2% 14.1%13.7% 21.3% 21.2%

20.8%21.5% 21.5% 21.7% 21.6% 21.7%20.4% 20.4% 20.0%20.5% 20.4% 20.7%

21.3% 21.5%21.9% 21.8%21.5% 21.6% 21.5% 21.4%21.8% 20.6%

Average of % foreign MF

Av e r a ge for e ign ow n e r sh ip in t h e t oba cco se ct or

Av e r a ge loca l m u t u a l fu n d ow n e r sh ip

(14)

INDEX MEMBERS

Se ct or

M e m be r s

Banking

BBRI , BBNI , BMRI , BBCA, BBTN

Cem ent

I NTP, SMGR

Consum er St aples

UNVR, I NDF, I CBP, MYOR, KLBF, ROTI

Coal

ADRO, PTBA, I TMG, HRUM, UNTR, DOI D

Const ruct ion

PTPP, ADHI , WI KA, WSKT

Media

SCMA, MNCN

Plant at ion

AALI , LSI P

Propert y

BSDE, SMRA, ASRI , CTRA, PWON

Ret ail

ACES, MAPI , LPPF, RALS

Telecom m unicat ion

TLKM, EXCL

Tobacco

HMSP, GGRM

(15)

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