SMART MONEY
June 2018
By:
Evan Lie Hadiwidj aj a
BANKING SECTOR
H e a t M a p
Source: KSEI , Sinarm as I nvest m ent Research
D e gr e e of ch a n ge s in ow n e r sh ip
+
-Loca l PF
Loca l M F
Loca l I S
Loca l I B
Fore ign PF
Fore ign M F
Fore ign I S
Fore ign I B
Ba nk ing
Ce m e nt
Consum e r St a ple s
Coa l
Const ruct ion
M e dia
Pla nt a t ion
Prope rt y
Re t a il
Te le com m unica t ion
Toba cco
N ot e s:
BANKING SECTOR
Ba n k in g Se ct or
Av e r a ge for e ign ow n e r sh ip in t h e ba n k in g se ct or
Av e r a ge loca l m u t u a l fu n d ow n e r sh ip
Av e r a ge loca l pe n sion fu n d ow n e r sh ip
Av e r a ge for e ign m u t u a l fu n d ow n e r sh ip
We see cont inuous for eign capit al out flow due t o r ecent curr ency inst abilit y . How ev er, w e observ e gradual accum ulat ion
fr om local PF and MF back ed by an incr easingly at t ract ive valuat ion. Going forward, w e expect credit expansion t o accelerat e
st em m ed by rising dom est ic consum pt ion and posit ive changes in social assist ance program s.
Source: KSEI , Sinarm as I nvest m ent Research
75.2%75.6% 74.8%75.0% 75.1%75.6%
71.1%71.5% 71.7%71.1% 70.3%
% Foreign Ownership
5.3%
Average of % local PF
6.7%
Average of % local MF
17.2% 16.4%
17.4% 17.3%
18.9% 19.1% 18.9% 19.2% 18.9% 18.9% 18.8% 18.7% 19.0% 19.0% 18.8% 18.7% 19.1% 19.8% 20.1%20.4%
21.0%21.5%
22.1% 22.4% 22.4%22.7% 22.7% 23.0% 23.7%
24.8% 25.1%25.9% 25.8% 25.6% 26.1% 26.1% 26.2% 26.1% 26.7% 26.4% 26.2%25.7%
25.2%24.7%
Source: KSEI , Sinarm as I nvest m ent Research
Despit e gradual accum ulat ion fr om for eign MF, we have not seen dist inct m ov em ent fr om local PF and MF as out look
rem ains uncert ain due t o ov er supply in t he indust ry. While t he m aj orit y of t he cem ent player s had int ended t o incr ease t he
ASP, we see m arket share and m argin t o be challenged by com pet it ion from newcom ers and rising coal prices.
BANKING SECTOR
Ce m e n t Se ct or
77.8% 78.6%79.0%
79.4% 78.6%
77.4%77.8%77.6%77.9% 77.7%
77.4% 77.5% 77.3% 77.1%76.9%76.6% 76.8%77.4% 77.9%77.6% 77.8%
79.3% 83.9%83.6%
85.2%84.9% 85.0% 85.0%85.6% 85.5% 85.4% 85.9%86.3%85.8% 85.8%
85.2%85.7%85.5% 85.5%
86.2% 86.1% 86.3% 86.3% 86.4% 86.1%
70.0% 72.0% 74.0% 76.0% 78.0% 80.0% 82.0% 84.0% 86.0% 88.0%
% Foreign Ownership
4.1% 3.8%4.0%
4.2% 4.6%
5.5% 5.5% 5.5% 5.5% 5.5% 5.6% 5.5% 5.5% 5.4% 5.4% 5.5% 5.5% 5.4% 5.4%5.7%5.6% 5.6%
5.4% 5.4% 5.3% 5.4% 5.3% 5.3%5.3% 5.3% 5.3% 5.2%
5.2% 5.2% 5.1% 5.1%5.1% 5.0%5.2% 5.2% 5.2% 5.2% 5.2% 5.2% 5.2%
0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0%
Average of % local PF
5.0%4.9% 4.4%
4.1% 4.6%
3.9%
3.8% 3.9% 3.7%3.7% 3.8% 3.7% 3.9%
4.3% 4.5%
4.2% 4.0%
3.6% 3.2%
3.0% 2.8% 2.8% 2.8% 2.8%
2.6% 2.4%
2.2% 2.0%
1.8% 1.7% 1.7% 1.7% 1.7% 1.8% 2.1%
2.4% 2.3% 2.4%2.4% 2.2% 2.2%
2.0% 2.0% 1.9% 2.0%
0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0%
Average of % local MF
16.9% 17.2%17.4% 17.9% 17.7%
16.2% 16.5% 18.0%
18.9% 19.0% 18.8%
18.4%18.7% 18.7% 18.5% 18.4%18.2% 18.2% 18.2% 18.4% 18.3%18.8% 19.2%
18.8%19.2% 19.4%
19.6% 19.8%20.1% 19.8%19.6%20.0% 20.4%19.6% 19.8% 19.5%19.9% 20.0% 20.1%20.3% 20.6%20.9% 20.9% 20.7% 21.5%
0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0%
Average of % foreign MF
Av e r a ge for e ign ow n e r sh ip in t h e ce m e n t se ct or
Av e r a ge loca l m u t u a l fu n d ow n e r sh ip
Source: KSEI , Sinarm as I nvest m ent Research
Ther e has been a const ant st ruggle bet ween local and for eign ownership in t he sect or , which r epr esent 48% and 52%
respect ively. Nonet heless, w e cont inue t o like t he sect or driven by bet t er consum pt ion and at t ract ive risk/ reward from a
valuat ion st andpoint .
BANKING SECTOR
Con su m e r St a ple s Se ct or
61.2% 61.6% 63.8% 64.5% 63.9% 63.6%
62.6% 61.8% 61.3%60.9% 60.1% 60.3% 60.4% 60.2% 60.0% 59.8% 60.1% 59.6% 59.7% 59.7% 60.2% 61.1%62.0% 62.0% 59.0%57.6%
55.6% 55.2% 54.7% 54.4% 54.2% 55.5% 54.2% 54.3% 54.0%53.6% 53.9% 53.8% 53.7% 53.9% 53.4% 53.5% 52.8% 52.3% 51.8%
0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% 60.0% 70.0%
% Foreign Ownership
3.4% 3.2%
3.9%4.1% 4.1% 4.0%
4.4% 4.5%4.5% 4.6%4.7% 4.7% 4.6%4.5% 4.4% 4.3% 4.2% 4.2%4.0%
3.8% 3.7% 3.7% 3.4%3.3%
3.8% 4.2%
4.6%4.7% 5.1% 5.2%
5.4%5.3% 5.8%
6.5% 6.4% 6.4% 6.5%6.7% 6.9%7.1%
7.5%7.8% 7.8% 7.9% 8.0%
0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% 7.0% 8.0% 9.0%
Average of % local PF
9.1% 9.2%
7.1% 7.1% 7.0% 7.9%8.1%
8.8%9.1% 9.3%
9.9% 9.8%
9.5% 9.5% 9.7%9.9% 9.9% 10.0% 10.1%10.3%9.9%
9.1% 8.6%
8.3% 9.7%
10.2% 11.0% 11.1%
10.8% 10.6%10.5% 10.6% 10.6% 10.2%10.6%
10.9% 10.9% 10.7%10.6% 10.2% 10.2%10.5% 10.6%
10.8% 10.8%
0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% 12.0%
Average of % local MF
15.5% 16.1%
13.1%12.8%13.0% 12.8% 12.5% 12.3%12.1%
11.5%
11.0% 10.9% 11.0%11.3% 11.2% 11.3%11.6% 11.4% 11.5% 11.6% 11.7%
12.0% 12.1% 11.8%12.5%12.1% 11.9%
11.7% 11.5% 11.4% 11.5%11.8% 11.8% 11.9% 11.9% 11.7%
11.3% 11.4% 11.5% 11.3% 11.2% 10.9% 10.9%
10.5% 10.4%
0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% 12.0% 14.0% 16.0% 18.0%
Average of % foreign MF
Av e r a ge for e ign ow n e r sh ip in t h e con su m e r st a ple s se ct or
Av e r a ge loca l m u t u a l fu n d ow n e r sh ip
Source: KSEI , Sinarm as I nvest m ent Research
Gradual accum ulat ion is seen fr om for eign MF despit e r educt ion fr om local PF. We r em ain bullish on t he sect or as coal price
rem ained st r ong during June boost ed by rising dem and fr om sum m er season. Not e t hat Newcast le coal price reached
$114/ Mt at t he end of June, increased by 4% m om .
BANKING SECTOR
Coa l Se ct or
42.5%41.7%43.0% 43.5%44.3%
45.7% 45.7% 45.1% 45.1% 45.4%46.2% 46.1%45.3% 44.2%
43.0% 43.2%44.1% 42.6% 41.9%40.9%
40.0% 40.5% 40.3% 38.2%
35.1% 35.7% 35.3% 34.7%
33.4% 33.8% 33.5% 34.0%34.3% 34.6%
35.0%34.0%35.0% 34.7% 34.7% 35.5%37.0% 36.8% 36.5% 37.2% 37.6%
% Foreign Ownership
6.1% 6.0%
Average of % local PF
6.3%
Average of % local MF
11.9% 9.8%
12.8% 12.9% 10.9%11.1% 11.1%
11.6% 11.8% 11.8% 12.5% 12.4%
11.7%12.0% 12.2%
0.0%
Average of % foreign MF
Av e r a ge for e ign ow n e r sh ip in t h e coa l se ct or
Av e r a ge loca l m u t u a l fu n d ow n e r sh ip
CONSTRUCTION SECTOR
Source: KSEI , Sinarm as I nvest m ent Research
We see a slight upt ick in for eign MF ownership paired wit h local PF cont inuing t heir upward t r end in accum ulat ing owner ship
despit e flat ov erall st ock perform ance in t he sect or. We believe bot h foreign MF and local PF will cont inue t heir accum ulat ion
as new cont ract and P&L achievem ent t end t o accelerat e during t he second half of t he year.
BANKING SECTOR
32.3% 32.5%33.4%32.1% 31.8%33.4%32.5% 34.8%
36.7% 37.1% 35.8%
37.4% 37.8%38.5% 39.0%37.6%38.7% 41.2%
42.6% 39.4% 39.0%
37.8% 37.2% 36.5% 36.9%38.1%
38.9%40.3% 40.2% 40.0% 39.7% 39.8% 41.3% 40.7%
39.5%40.4% 40.2% 38.7% 38.3%37.7%
36.6%
% Foreign Ownership
8.2%
Average of % local PF
20.6% 25.1%
22.2% 22.3% 28.9%
25.8%25.3%26.1%
24.6%25.1% 25.0% 25.2% 24.9% 24.9% 24.8% 25.3%24.3%23.7%24.6% 24.2%23.8% 21.8%
19.8% 19.4% 19.3% 19.1% 19.7%20.0% 18.3%
16.6% 15.3%
14.2% 14.0% 14.3% 13.6% 13.5%13.2% 13.0%13.7% 15.9%
17.4%18.0% 17.2% 16.8% 16.7%
0.0%
Average of % local MF
7.3%
10.7%11.0%10.5% 12.1% 12.2% 12.2% 12.2%
11.4%
12.4%12.7%12.4% 12.3% 12.3% 12.3% 12.1% 12.4% 12.4% 12.0% 12.2%
12.7% 12.7%12.9% 13.4%13.6%
13.2% 13.0%12.7%13.0%
0.0%
Average of % foreign MF
Av e r a ge for e ign ow n e r sh ip in t h e con st r u ct ion se ct or
Av e r a ge loca l m u t u a l fu n d ow n e r sh ip
We see for eign owner ship inched downward due t o a huge dr op fr om for eign individual in MNCN. How ev er, we see
accum ulat ion from local PF, MF and foreign MF.
BANKING SECTOR
M e dia Se ct or
Source: KSEI , Sinarm as I nvest m ent Research
22.5% 22.8%24.0% 26.6%
28.9%
30.1%30.8% 30.3% 30.6% 30.6% 30.2% 30.1% 30.2% 30.4% 30.5% 30.2% 30.4% 30.6%31.1% 31.4%
32.0% 32.3% 32.4%33.5% 33.2%32.4% 32.4% 32.3% 32.5% 32.4% 32.4% 32.6% 32.5% 32.5% 32.8% 32.9%33.3% 33.8% 33.2% 32.9% 32.9% 32.5% 32.7% 33.5% 32.8%
0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% 30.0% 35.0% 40.0%
% Foreign Ownership
0.7% 0.6% 0.6%
0.7% 0.7%
0.5%
0.4%0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4%
0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4%0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4%
0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4%0.4%0.4% 0.4% 0.4%0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4%
0.4%0.4% 0.3%0.4% 0.4%
0.3%0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.4%
0.0% 0.1% 0.2% 0.3% 0.4% 0.5% 0.6% 0.7% 0.8%
Average of % local PF
3.3% 3.2%
2.9%2.9% 3.2%
2.6% 2.5%
2.4%
2.3% 2.3% 2.4%2.4% 2.4% 2.5%2.5%
2.7% 2.6%
2.5%2.4% 2.4%2.5%2.4% 2.3%
2.1% 2.3%
2.4%2.4% 2.3%
2.1% 2.0%2.0%
1.8% 1.8% 1.8% 1.5% 1.4%
1.3%1.4% 1.6%
1.8% 2.2% 2.3%2.3%
2.4%2.5%
0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 3.0% 3.5%
Average of % local MF
6.9% 6.5%
7.8% 9.0%9.3% 9.4%
9.9%10.1% 10.2% 10.0% 9.9%
9.6% 9.6% 9.7% 9.6%9.3% 8.7%
8.4% 8.4% 8.8%9.0% 9.0%9.2%
9.3% 9.4% 9.5% 9.0% 9.0% 9.0% 8.9%
8.7% 8.6%8.9%9.1%8.7% 8.8%8.9% 8.4%
7.8% 7.7%7.9% 8.4% 8.6%8.2%
8.9%
0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% 12.0%
Average of % foreign MF
Av e r a ge for e ign ow n e r sh ip in t h e m e dia se ct or
Av e r a ge loca l m u t u a l fu n d ow n e r sh ip
No significant m ov em ent as w e see lack of cat alyst in t he sect or. We r em ain neut ral on t he sect or on t he back of w eak CPO
price which pot ent ially leads t o poor profit abilit y from CPO plant ers ( AALI and LSI P) .
BANKING SECTOR
Pla n t a t ion Se ct or
Source: KSEI , Sinarm as I nvest m ent Research
46.8% 41.3% 42.1%42.3% 41.5%44.1%
42.9%41.9% 42.0%44.0%45.5% 44.7%42.2% 37.1% 37.0%
35.2%
33.9% 33.7% 34.4% 34.6% 34.4%34.7% 35.1% 34.3%
36.5% 36.4% 36.9% 35.8%35.0%36.0% 36.5% 36.2% 35.9%37.0% 37.0% 37.2% 36.6% 36.4%
0.0%
% Foreign Ownership
7.3% 6.8%7.0%
11.1% 12.8%12.6%12.9%
12.5% 12.6% 12.6%12.9% 12.8%
11.7% 11.5% 11.6% 11.5% 11.4%11.2% 11.2% 11.7%
12.4% 12.4% 12.5% 13.4% 13.5%
12.7% 12.5%12.8% 12.7% 12.7%12.5%
12.1% 12.1% 12.1%11.9% 12.0% 12.1% 12.1%
13.7% 13.7% 13.6% 13.5% 13.5% 13.6% 13.6%
0.0%
Average of % local PF
17.5% 15.6% 15.5% 15.6%
16.9% 16.8% 17.0% 14.5% 10.3% 10.5% 10.4%
9.3%
Average of % local MF
14.5% 17.1%17.6%
12.8% 11.8% 11.9%
11.4% 11.4%11.1% 12.2% 12.2%
13.5% 13.7% 13.5% 12.3% 12.5%
11.9%11.5%11.8%12.4% 12.7% 12.9%
12.3% 12.3% 11.8%12.3% 12.3%
12.6% 12.6% 12.5%13.0% 13.0% 12.9% 13.2% 13.3%13.6%
14.1% 14.0% 14.1%
0.0%
Average of % foreign MF
Av e r a ge for e ign ow n e r sh ip in t h e pla n t a t ion se ct or
Av e r a ge loca l m u t u a l fu n d ow n e r sh ip
We see an incr ease in local MF owner ship as BI r elaxed m acr o prudent ial policy, which will be applied st art ing August 1
st
,
2018, t o give a br eat h of fr esh air t o t he sect or. We ar e caut iously opt im ist ic on t he sect or as we believe t he r elaxat ion will
ease developers’ cash flow and support supply- dem and.
BANKING SECTOR
Pr ope r t y Se ct or
Source: KSEI , Sinarm as I nvest m ent Research
46.3%47.5% 47.6% 47.6%46.1% 46.9%47.3%46.3%47.3% 46.9% 46.6% 46.6% 46.9% 46.3% 46.4% 46.3% 46.9%47.9% 48.1% 47.8% 47.7%48.8% 49.4% 48.9% 49.3% 48.7% 48.8%47.5% 47.9% 48.3%49.1% 49.8% 44.5%
42.3% 42.2% 41.7% 40.0%
38.8%
35.0% 35.2% 34.9% 34.7% 34.7% 34.6% 34.3%
0.0%
% Foreign Ownership
2.3%
Average of % local PF
7.5% 7.5%
Average of % local MF
4.9%
Average of % foreign MF
Av e r a ge for e ign ow n e r sh ip in t h e pr ope r t y se ct or
Av e r a ge loca l m u t u a l fu n d ow n e r sh ip
RETAIL SECTOR
Source: KSEI , Sinarm as I nvest m ent Research
For eign flow has been st abilizing backed by SSSG im pr ov em ent , which r eflect s st r onger pur chasing pow er com par ed t o prior
year s. I n addit ion, we expect bet t er operat ing efficiency driven by new m er chandising sy st em being im plem ent ed and
non-perform ing st ore closures.
BANKING SECTOR
67.7%67.5%67.8% 68.0%68.3%68.1%
65.2% 65.2% 65.0% 63.9%
64.6% 65.1%
64.2% 62.9% 62.9% 63.0%
63.7% 63.2%
62.8%63.2% 61.9%
61.7% 61.7% 62.6%62.3%62.8%
64.7%
% Foreign Ownership
1.9%
Average of % local PF
7.5%
Average of % local MF
18.3%19.1% 19.7%
21.1% 22.3%
23.9%
23.3% 23.0% 23.3% 23.5%23.7% 23.4% 23.3%24.2%
24.9% 25.1%25.5% 25.2% 25.0%25.9% 26.4% 26.4%27.2%
27.8%28.7%
29.2% 29.1% 29.1% 29.0% 29.4% 29.3% 29.6%29.9% 30.0% 29.9%29.4% 29.3%28.8% 28.8%
30.2% 30.5% 30.4%31.0%29.9% 29.6%
0.0%
Average of % foreign MF
Av e r a ge for e ign ow n e r sh ip in t h e r e t a il se ct or
Av e r a ge loca l m u t u a l fu n d ow n e r sh ip
TELECOMMUNICATION SECTOR
Source: KSEI , Sinarm as I nvest m ent Research
Ov er sold and at t ract ive. We see st r ong accum ulat ion fr om local MF despit e t he decline in for eign ownership. Meanwhile, w e
t urn bullish on t he sect or as t elco players hav e incr eased t heir dat a pricing, which will be a r elief t o t heir m argins and give
85.4%86.0% 86.1% 85.9%86.5% 86.5%87.0% 86.8% 86.7% 86.3% 86.0%85.8%
86.9%86.6% 86.6% 84.3%84.7%
85.5% 85.0%
84.2% 85.2%
84.0% 83.8% 83.7% 83.2% 83.0%83.4%
84.3% 84.0%
83.2% 82.4%
81.5%
79.7%80.0% 79.9% 79.8% 79.8% 79.3% 79.0%
% Foreign Ownership
1.9%2.0%
Average of % local PF
5.0%
Average of % local MF
20.9% 20.0%
21.7% 21.7%22.1% 22.6%
21.9% 21.9% 21.6% 21.7% 22.0% 21.7% 22.0%22.5% 22.6% 22.7%23.2% 22.8% 22.9% 22.8% 22.8% 23.3% 23.7% 24.1%
25.0%
24.5% 24.3% 24.2% 24.4%25.0% 25.4% 25.6%
24.9% 25.1% 25.2% 24.7%24.2%
23.5% 23.5%23.0%23.5% 23.7%24.0% 24.8%
Average of % foreign MF
Av e r a ge for e ign ow n e r sh ip in t h e t e le com m u n ica t ion se ct or
Av e r a ge loca l m u t u a l fu n d ow n e r sh ip
TOBACCO SECTOR
Selling pressur e fr om foreign MF m ay serv e as a headwind t o t he sect or despit e gradual accum ulat ion fr om local PF and MF.
Howev er, w e expect st ock appr eciat ion in t he near t erm due t o bet t er consum pt ion which would t ranslat e t o cigaret t e
volum e recovery.
BANKING SECTOR
Toba cco Se ct or
Source: KSEI , Sinarm as I nvest m ent Research
69.5%72.1% 71.7% 72.1% 72.4%69.1% 69.3% 68.6% 68.0% 68.0% 68.2% 68.5%62.9%64.5% 64.5% 63.6% 63.4%61.8% 62.0%63.0% 64.1%
66.6% 66.5% 66.0% 65.6%64.5%
55.4% 55.2% 54.4% 54.9% 54.7%56.1% 55.9% 56.0% 55.1%53.7% 53.1% 54.0% 53.4% 53.4% 51.6%
% Foreign Ownership
1.9%
Average of % local PF
11.2% 10.1% 10.1%
9.7% 9.5% 10.5% 10.8% 10.5%11.2%
11.7% 11.5% 11.5% 16.5%
16.0% 16.3% 16.9%
17.9%18.3% 18.2%17.6% 16.7%
14.6% 14.4% 13.1% 12.8%
14.0% 15.8% 15.8% 15.8%
15.4% 15.2% 14.4% 14.2%
13.5% 13.7% 14.8%
15.8% 15.9%16.4% 16.5% 18.3%
Average of % local MF
8.8% 9.0% 10.1%
11.7% 14.4%
13.8% 13.8% 13.8% 14.1%14.2% 14.1%13.7% 21.3% 21.2%
20.8%21.5% 21.5% 21.7% 21.6% 21.7%20.4% 20.4% 20.0%20.5% 20.4% 20.7%
21.3% 21.5%21.9% 21.8%21.5% 21.6% 21.5% 21.4%21.8% 20.6%
Average of % foreign MF