Analisa Teknikal
Riset Teknikal Saham Harian
Samuel Research 11 Juli 2017
www.samuel.co.id Page 1 of 7
Awal Koreksi Menuju 5,700
Dengan penurunan dalam dua hari terakhir dan tidak ada Breakout 5,874 lagi, IHSG sangat mungkin membatalkan Uptrend menuju 6,100 dan mengawali koreksi menuju 5,700 dalam jangka pendek. Namun demikian, Technical Analyst memperkirakan IHSG mempertahankan Sideways yang terbentuk sejak Mei’17..
Sektor yang layak dipilih adalah : Toll, Mineral dan Coal. Sektor untuk Bottom Fishing adalah : Telecom, Residential dan Auto. Waspadai sektor : Cigarettes dan Poultry.
Day Trading Recommendation LQ45 : ANTM dan BSDE Non-LQ45 : ITMG
Swing Trading Recommendation Add : No Change
Drop : No Change
Concern : BBTN, BBRI dan JSMR Commodity Related : Coal (ITMG)
Consumer Related : Poultry (JPFA), Retail (MAPI)
Infrastructure Related : Construction (PTPP), Telecom (TLKM), Toll (JSMR)
Riset Teknikal Saham Harian
11 July 2017
Day Trading Recommendation
Saham Last Price 1D %Ch Supp.1 Supp.2 Resist.1 Resist.2 Daily Target Cut Loss ANTM 705 -0.7 700 690 720 730 720 690 ITMG 18225 -0.1 18080 17940 18330 18440 18600 17850 BSDE 1805 0.6 1780 1750 1830 1850 1845 1765 ITMG masuk ke dalam Swing Trading Recommendation
Swing Trading Recommendation
Stock 1st Add Date 1st Add Open Price Latest Close % Change Since Add Estimated Target % Upside Potential Since Last Close
Entry Timing ITMG 7-Jul-17 18,350 18,225 -0.7% 22,000 20.7% Wait JPFA 7-Jul-17 1,410 1,425 1.1% 1,800 26.3% Now
MAPI 3-Mar-17 5,350 6,425 20.1% 7,650 19.1% Wait PTPP 7-Jul-17 3,330 3,200 -3.9% 3,800 18.8% Wait TLKM 23-May-17 4,500 4,570 1.6% 5,400 18.2% Wait JSMR 8-May-17 4,750 5,200 9.5% 6,200 19.2% Now
BBCA 23-Mar-17 16,400 18,300 11.6% 19,800 8.2% Wait BBRI 26-Apr-17 13,150 14,725 12.0% 16,800 14.1% Now
BBTN 16-Jan-17 1,900 2,390 25.8% 2,900 21.3% Now
Riset Teknikal Saham Harian
11 July 2017
www.samuel.co.id Page 3 of 7
Recommendation Charts
ANTM (Rp705) : Mempertahankan Peluang Uptrend Dengan Menuju Rp800
ANTM berpeluang mempertahankan Sideways dengan potensi Bullish. Ada potensi ANTM naik menuju Rp800. Waspadai penurunan di bawah Rp690
ITMG (Rp18,225) : Mempertahankan Uptrend Menuju Rp20,000 Paska Breakout Rp18,100
ITMG berpeluang Breakout Rp18,100 dan melanjutkan Uptrend setidaknya menuju Rp20,000. Terbuka peluang ITMG naik kembali menguji Resistance di Rp22,000. Waspadai penurunan di bawah Rp17,500
Riset Teknikal Saham Harian
11 July 2017
BSDE (Rp1,805) : Berpeluang Mengawali Uptrend, Perlu Breakout Rp1,900
BSDE berpotensi mengakhiri Downtrend dengan tetap bertahan di atas Rp1,800. Masih perlu Breakout Rp1,900 untuk menuju Rp2,200. Waspadai penurunan di bawah Rp1,800
Riset Teknikal Saham Harian
11 July 2017 www.samuel.co.id Page 5 of 7
Sectoral Movement
Benchmark 1D %Ch 5D %Ch IHSG (0.74) (2.35)Relation / Sector 1D %Ch 5D %Ch Real Rise Fake Fall Real Fall Fake Rise Staples 0.18 (2.94) 15.4% 30.8% 15.4% 38.5% Cigarettes 0.23 (3.73) 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0%
FMCG (0.80) (3.52) 12.5% 50.0% 25.0% 12.5%
Poultry 1.10 (1.58) 33.3% 0.0% 0.0% 66.7%
Relation / Sector 1D %Ch 5D %Ch Real Rise Fake Fall Real Fall Fake Rise Discretionary (0.55) (2.98) 0.0% 58.8% 11.8% 29.4% Auto 0.59 (1.29) 0.0% 66.7% 0.0% 33.3% Healthcare 0.86 (1.46) 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% Pharmacy (1.40) (3.09) 0.0% 50.0% 50.0% 0.0% Retail (1.78) (5.38) 0.0% 85.7% 0.0% 14.3% Media (1.03) (3.71) 0.0% 33.3% 33.3% 33.3%
Relation / Sector 1D %Ch 5D %Ch Real Rise Fake Fall Real Fall Fake Rise Infrastructure (0.79) (2.34) 5.3% 63.2% 15.8% 15.8% Cement (1.64) (0.43) 25.0% 50.0% 25.0% 0.0% Telecom (0.19) (4.89) 0.0% 66.7% 0.0% 33.3% Construction (0.94) (1.34) 0.0% 60.0% 20.0% 20.0% Industrial Area (0.47) (2.53) 0.0% 60.0% 20.0% 20.0% Toll (0.71) (2.54) 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Relation / Sector 1D %Ch 5D %Ch Real Rise Fake Fall Real Fall Fake Rise Interest (0.76) (1.80) 5.3% 57.9% 21.1% 15.8% Banking (1.06) (1.65) 0.0% 50.0% 25.0% 25.0% Residential (0.47) (1.94) 9.1% 63.6% 18.2% 9.1% Relation / Sector 1D %Ch 5D %Ch Real Rise Fake Fall Real Fall Fake Rise Commodity (0.96) (1.72) 4.8% 66.7% 14.3% 14.3%
Coal (0.93) (3.34) 0.0% 85.7% 0.0% 14.3%
CPO (1.27) (1.18) 0.0% 33.3% 50.0% 16.7%
Mineral (1.40) (0.47) 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Oil&Gas (0.24) (1.87) 25.0% 50.0% 0.0% 25.0%
Commodity Related dan Infrastructure Related layak menjadi pilihan utama hari ini. Interest Related dapat menjadi pilihan alternatif
Sektor yang layak dipilih adalah : Toll, Mineral dan Coal
Sektor untuk Bottom Fishing adalah : Telecom, Residential dan Auto Waspadai sektor : Cigarettes dan Poultry
Riset Teknikal Saham Harian
11 July 2017
Technical Analysis Glossary
Support : Level harga dimana berpotensi menahan penurunan lebih lanjut Resistance : Level harga dimana berpotensi menahan kenaikan lebih lanjut
Breakout : Pergerakan harga melewati Resistance dari bawah ke atas. Mengindikasikan Uptrend Breakdown : Pergerakan harga melewati Support dari atas ke bawah. Mengindikasikan Downtrend Throwback : Penurunan paksa terjadi Breakout dimana maksimum penurunan adalah Support yang
berasal dari Resistance yang baru saja di-Breakout
Pullback : Kenaikan paska terjadi Breakdown dimana maksimum kenaikan adalah Resistance yang berasal dari Support yang baru saja di-Breakdown
Technical Rebound : Kenaikan sementara di tengah Downtrend. Kenaikan tersebut akan lebih kecil dari penurunan yang segera terjadi
Technical Correction : Penurunan sementara di tengah Uptrend. Penurunan tersebut akan lebih kecil dari kenaikan yang segera terjadi
Bullish Continuation : Pergerakan yang mengindikasikan Uptrend sebelumnya akan berlanjut Bearish Continuation : Pergerakan yang mengindikasikan Downtrend sebelumnya akan berlanjut
Bullish Reversal : Pergerakan yang mengindikasikan Downtrend sebelumnya berubah menjadi Uptrend Bearish Reversal : Pergerakan yang mengindikasikan Uptrend sebelumnya berubah menjadi Downtrend Up Trendline : Support Diagonal ke arah atas yang menandakan pergerakan Uptrend
Down Trendline : Support Diagonal ke arah atas yang menandakan pergerakan Uptrend Day Trading : Strategi trading dengan Holding Period selama 1 hari sampai 2 minggu Swing Trading : Strategi trading dengan Holding Period sampai 3 bulan
DISCLAIMERS : Analyst Certification : The views expressed in this research accurately reflect the personal views of the analyst(s) about the subject securities or
issuers and no part of the compensation of the analyst(s) was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the inclusion of specific recommendations or views in this research. The analyst(s) principally responsible for the preparation of this research has taken reasonable care to achieve and maintain independence and objectivity in making any recommendations. This document is for information only and for the use of the recipient. It is not to be reproduced or copied or made available to others. Under no circumstances is it to be considered as an offer to sell or solicitation to buy any security. Any recommendation contained in this report may not be suitable for all investors. Moreover, although the information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, its accuracy, completeness and reliability cannot be guaranteed. All rights reserved by PT Samuel Sekuritas Indonesia
www.samuel.co.id Page 7 of 7
Research Team
Andy Ferdinand, CFA Head Of Equity Research, Strategy,
Banking, Consumer [email protected] +6221 2854 8148
Rangga Cipta Economist [email protected] +6221 2854 8396
Muhamad Makky Dandytra, CFTe Technical Analyst [email protected] +6221 2854 8382
Akhmad Nurcahyadi, CSA Auto, Aviation, Cigarette, Construction
Healthcare, Heavy Equipment, Property [email protected] +6221 2854 8144
Arandi Ariantara Cement, Telecommunication, Utility [email protected] +6221 2854 8392
Marlene Tanumihardja Poultry, Retail, Small Caps [email protected] +6221 2854 8387
Sharlita Lutfiah Malik Mining, Plantation [email protected] +6221 2854 8339
Nadya Swastika Research Associate [email protected] +6221 2854 8338
Private Wealth Management
Evelyn Satyono Head of PWM / Institutional Sales [email protected] +6221 2854 8380
Muhamad Alfatih CSA, CTA, CFTe Senior Technical Portfolio Advisor [email protected] +6221 2854 8129
Ronny Ardianto Institutional Equity Sales [email protected] +6221 2854 8399
Clarice Wijana Institutional Equity Sales [email protected] +6221 2854 8395
Fachruly Fiater Institutional Equity Sales [email protected] +6221 2854 8325
Equity Sales Team
Kelvin Long Head of Equities [email protected] +6221 2854 8150
Yulianah Institutional Equity Sales [email protected] +6221 2854 8146
Lucia Irawati Retail Equity Sales [email protected] +6221 2854 8173
Online Trading Sales Team
Nugroho Nuswantoro Head of Marketing Online Trading [email protected] +6221 2854 8372
Wahyu Widodo Marketing [email protected] +6221 2854 8371
