Riset Teknikal Saham Harian

(1)

Analisa Teknikal

Riset Teknikal Saham Harian

Samuel Research 06 Juni 2017

www.samuel.co.id Page 1 of 7

Downtrend Dimulai Dengan Breakdown 5,735

Dengan membentuk Doji di area 5,735 – 5,770, Technical Analyst

mengkhawatirkan Doji tersebut adalah Puncak dari kenaikan sejak 6 hari lalu dari level 5,670an. Dengan demikian, sangat mungkin IHSG akan segera melanjutkan penurunan dari New All Time High di 5,874 untuk menuju 5,500 di akhir Jun’17 – awal Jul’17. Penurunan di bawah 5,735 akan mengonfirmasi Downtrend.

Sektor yang layak dipilih adalah : Cigarettes, Industrial Area dan Oil&Gas. Sektor untuk Bottom Fishing adalah : Poultry, Auto, Retail, Media dan Construction. Waspadai sektor : Healthcare, Residential, Coal dan CPO. Day Trading Recommendation

LQ45 : PWON

Non-LQ45 : DOID dan SSIA Swing Trading Recommendation Add : No Change

Drop : No Change

Concern : ISAT, WSKT dan TLKM  Commodity Related : CPO (SIMP)

 Consumer Related : FMCG (MYOR), Retail (MAPI), Cigarettes (GGRM)

 Infrastructure Related : Construction (ADHI, WSKT), Telecom (ISAT, TLKM), Toll (JSMR)

(2)

Riset Teknikal Saham Harian

6 June 2017

Day Trading Recommendation

Saham Last Price 1D %Ch Supp.1 Supp.2 Resist.1 Resist.2 Daily Target Cut Loss

PWON 635 2.4 620 610 640 650 650 620

DOID 870 6.8 830 800 900 930 890 850

SSIA 640 0.8 630 630 650 660 655 625

 Tidak ada saham yang masuk ke dalam Swing Trading Recommendation

Swing Trading Recommendation

Stock 1st Add Date 1st Add Open Price Latest Close % Change Since Add Estimated Target % Upside Potential Since Last Close

Entry Timing

SIMP 2-Mar-17 570 590 3.5% 800 35.6% Wait

GGRM 9-May-17 70,000 74,300 6.1% 89,500 20.5% Wait

MYOR 3-Jan-17 1,645 2,130 29.5% 2,500 17.4% Wait

MAPI 3-Mar-17 5,350 6,325 18.2% 7,650 20.9% Wait

ADHI 7-Apr-17 2,280 2,280 0.0% 2,600 14.0% Wait

WSKT 23-May-17 2,420 2,320 -4.1% 2,670 15.1% Wait

ISAT 22-Nov-16 6,100 6,675 9.4% 8,000 19.9% Now

TLKM 23-May-17 4,500 4,340 -3.6% 5,400 24.4% Wait

JSMR 8-May-17 4,750 5,100 7.4% 5,650 10.8% Wait

BBCA 23-Mar-17 16,400 17,725 8.1% 19,800 11.7% Wait

BBRI 26-Apr-17 13,150 15,025 14.3% 16,000 6.5% Wait

BBTN 16-Jan-17 1,900 2,470 30.0% 2,750 11.3% Wait

(3)

Riset Teknikal Saham Harian

6 June 2017

www.samuel.co.id _{Page 3 of 7}

Recommendation Charts

PWON (Rp635) : Mengawali Uptrend Menuju Rp750 – Rp760

PWON terindikasi membuat Bullish Reversal dengan Sideways sejak Des'16 dengan potensi menuju Resistance penting di Rp760an. Waspadai penurunan di bawah Rp580

DOID (Rp870) : Bersiap Mengawali Uptrend Menuju Rp1,200

DOID berpeluang mengakhiri Downtrend jangka pendek sebagai Technical Correction dari Uptrend jangka menengah / panjang di area Rp780. Ada peluang DOID mengawali Uptrend sehingga setidaknya DOID mampu naik menyentuh Rp1,000 - Rp1,050. Waspadai penurunan di bawah Rp780

(4)

Riset Teknikal Saham Harian

6 June 2017

SSIA (Rp640) : Mengakhiri Downtrend Dan Mengawali Uptrend Menuju Rp800

SSIA berpeluang mengakhiri Downtrend di area Rp630 - Rp650 dan kembali naik untuk menguji Rp800. Waspadai penurunan di bawah Rp610

(5)

Riset Teknikal Saham Harian

6 June 2017

Sectoral Movement

Relation / Sector Positive Move Negative Move Real Rise Fake Fall Real Fall Fake Rise Staples 53.8% 46.2% 0.0% 53.8% 15.4% 30.8%

Cigarettes 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0%

FMCG 37.5% 62.5% 0.0% 37.5% 12.5% 50.0%

Poultry 66.7% 33.3% 0.0% 66.7% 33.3% 0.0%

Relation / Sector Positive Move Negative Move Real Rise Fake Fall Real Fall Fake Rise Discretionary 58.8% 41.2% 11.8% 47.1% 35.3% 5.9% Auto 66.7% 33.3% 0.0% 66.7% 33.3% 0.0% Healthcare 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 50.0% 50.0% Pharmacy 50.0% 50.0% 50.0% 0.0% 50.0% 0.0% Retail 71.4% 28.6% 14.3% 57.1% 28.6% 0.0% Media 66.7% 33.3% 0.0% 66.7% 33.3% 0.0%

Relation / Sector Positive Move Negative Move Real Rise Fake Fall Real Fall Fake Rise Infrastructure 68.4% 31.6% 15.8% 52.6% 21.1% 10.5% Cement 75.0% 25.0% 25.0% 50.0% 25.0% 0.0% Telecom 66.7% 33.3% 33.3% 33.3% 0.0% 33.3% Construction 60.0% 40.0% 0.0% 60.0% 40.0% 0.0% Industrial Area 80.0% 20.0% 20.0% 60.0% 20.0% 0.0% Toll 50.0% 50.0% 0.0% 50.0% 0.0% 50.0%

Relation / Sector Positive Move Negative Move Real Rise Fake Fall Real Fall Fake Rise Interest 47.4% 52.6% 15.8% 31.6% 21.1% 31.6%

Banking 62.5% 37.5% 12.5% 50.0% 0.0% 37.5%

Residential 36.4% 63.6% 18.2% 18.2% 36.4% 27.3%

Relation / Sector Positive Move Negative Move Real Rise Fake Fall Real Fall Fake Rise Commodity 57.1% 42.9% 23.8% 33.3% 23.8% 19.0%

Coal 42.9% 57.1% 28.6% 14.3% 14.3% 42.9%

CPO 50.0% 50.0% 0.0% 50.0% 33.3% 16.7%

Mineral 50.0% 50.0% 25.0% 25.0% 50.0% 0.0%

Oil&Gas 100.0% 0.0% 50.0% 50.0% 0.0% 0.0%

 Infrastructure Related, Discretionary Consumer Related dan Commodity Related layak dipilih hari ini. Staples Consumer Related dapat menjadi alternatif pilihan

 Sektor yang layak dipilih adalah : Cigarettes, Industrial Area dan Oil&Gas

 Sektor untuk Bottom Fishing adalah : Poultry, Auto, Retail, Media dan Construction  Waspadai sektor : Healthcare, Residential, Coal dan CPO

(6)

Riset Teknikal Saham Harian

6 June 2017

Technical Analysis Glossary

Support : Level harga dimana berpotensi menahan penurunan lebih lanjut Resistance : Level harga dimana berpotensi menahan kenaikan lebih lanjut

Breakout : Pergerakan harga melewati Resistance dari bawah ke atas. Mengindikasikan Uptrend Breakdown : Pergerakan harga melewati Support dari atas ke bawah. Mengindikasikan Downtrend Throwback : Penurunan paksa terjadi Breakout dimana maksimum penurunan adalah Support yang

berasal dari Resistance yang baru saja di-Breakout

Pullback : Kenaikan paska terjadi Breakdown dimana maksimum kenaikan adalah Resistance yang berasal dari Support yang baru saja di-Breakdown

Technical Rebound : Kenaikan sementara di tengah Downtrend. Kenaikan tersebut akan lebih kecil dari penurunan yang segera terjadi

Technical Correction : Penurunan sementara di tengah Uptrend. Penurunan tersebut akan lebih kecil dari kenaikan yang segera terjadi

Bullish Continuation : Pergerakan yang mengindikasikan Uptrend sebelumnya akan berlanjut Bearish Continuation : Pergerakan yang mengindikasikan Downtrend sebelumnya akan berlanjut

Bullish Reversal : Pergerakan yang mengindikasikan Downtrend sebelumnya berubah menjadi Uptrend Bearish Reversal : Pergerakan yang mengindikasikan Uptrend sebelumnya berubah menjadi Downtrend Up Trendline : Support Diagonal ke arah atas yang menandakan pergerakan Uptrend

Down Trendline : Support Diagonal ke arah atas yang menandakan pergerakan Uptrend Day Trading : Strategi trading dengan Holding Period selama 1 hari sampai 2 minggu Swing Trading : Strategi trading dengan Holding Period sampai 3 bulan

(7)

DISCLAIMERS : Analyst Certification : The views expressed in this research accurately reflect the personal views of the analyst(s) about the subject securities or

issuers and no part of the compensation of the analyst(s) was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the inclusion of specific recommendations or views in this research. The analyst(s) principally responsible for the preparation of this research has taken reasonable care to achieve and maintain independence and objectivity in making any recommendations. This document is for information only and for the use of the recipient. It is not to be reproduced or copied or made available to others. Under no circumstances is it to be considered as an offer to sell or solicitation to buy any security. Any recommendation contained in this report may not be suitable for all investors. Moreover, although the information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, its accuracy, completeness and reliability cannot be guaranteed. All rights reserved by PT Samuel Sekuritas Indonesia

Research Team

Andy Ferdinand, CFA Head Of Equity Research, Strategy,

Banking, Consumer [email protected] +6221 2854 8148

Rangga Cipta Economist [email protected] +6221 2854 8396

Muhamad Makky Dandytra, CFTe Technical Analyst [email protected] +6221 2854 8382

Akhmad Nurcahyadi, CSA Auto, Aviation, Cigarette, Construction

Healthcare, Heavy Equipment, Property [email protected] +6221 2854 8144

Arandi Ariantara Cement, Telecommunication, Utility [email protected] +6221 2854 8392

Marlene Tanumihardja Poultry, Retail, Small Caps [email protected] +6221 2854 8387

Sharlita Lutfiah Malik Mining, Plantation [email protected] +6221 2854 8339

Nadya Swastika Research Associate [email protected] +6221 2854 8338

Private Wealth Management

Evelyn Satyono Head of PWM / Institutional Sales [email protected] +6221 2854 8380

Muhamad Alfatih CSA, CTA, CFTe Senior Technical Portfolio Advisor [email protected] +6221 2854 8129

Ronny Ardianto Institutional Equity Sales [email protected] +6221 2854 8399

Clarice Wijana Institutional Equity Sales [email protected] +6221 2854 8395

Fachruly Fiater Institutional Equity Sales [email protected] +6221 2854 8325

Equity Sales Team

Kelvin Long Head of Equities [email protected] +6221 2854 8150

Yulianah Institutional Equity Sales [email protected] +6221 2854 8146

Lucia Irawati Retail Equity Sales [email protected] +6221 2854 8173

Online Trading Sales Team

Nugroho Nuswantoro Head of Marketing Online Trading [email protected] +6221 2854 8372

Wahyu Widodo Marketing [email protected] +6221 2854 8371