Indonesian economic outlook in the midst of global challenges

(1)

Indonesian economic outlook in the

midst of global challenges

Muhammad Chatib Basri

Harvard Kennedy School

and

(2)

Short term problems:

macroeconomic stability

(3)

The macroeconomic impact of the global volatility

3 The Fed

interest

rate hike

Risk of

capital

outflow

Risk of assets

re pricing

Exchange rate

depreciation

Improve trade

balance

or

Deteriorate trade

balance

Slow

down of

China

Declining

commodity

price

Wealth effect

Slow down

growth

Bank Indonesia: interest rate ↑

Govt tighten fiscal

Bank Indonesia: lower interest

rate

Govt: Expand fiscal

Imported

inflation

Solution:

FDI (export oriented) ↑ → BoP +

Declining

oil price

Government

Revenue

Problem in

Euro and

China

(financial

)

(4)

(5)

-10

-5

0

5

10

15 2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

GDP Growth

(Countries, annual, 2015 data is q1 data, percent, last data in the bracket)

Source: CEIC, World Bank

Indonesia (4.71)

China (7.0)

India (7.51)

South Africa (1.3)

Rusia (-2.2)

Greece (0.35)

Brazil (-1.56)

(6)

-3

-1

1

3

5

7

9 2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

GDP Growth

(ASEAN countries, annual, 2015 data is q1 data, percent, last data in the bracket)

Source: CEIC, World Bank

Thailand (3.04)

Indonesia (4.71)

Vietnam (6.13)

Philippines (5.16)

(7)

GDP Growth

4,4

4,5

4,6

4,7

4,8

4,9

5 5,1

5,2

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8 Mar, 2014 Apr, 2014 Mei, 2014 Jun, 2014 Jul, 2014 Agu, 2014 Sep, 2014 Okt, 2014 Nov, 2014 Des, 2014 Jan, 2015 Feb, 2015 Mar, 2015

GDP Growth

Private Cons

Govt Exp

Inv

Export

Import

GDP

(8)

GDP Growth

8

4 Table 4

GDP By Expenditure

At Current Price and Constant Price 2010

(Trillion Rupiahs)

Component

Current Price

Constant Price 2010

Qtr. I-2015

Qtr. II-2015

Qtr. I-2015

Qtr. II-2015

(1)

(2)

(3)

(4)

(5)

1. Pengeluaran Konsumsi Rumah Tangga

2. Pengeluaran Konsumsi LNPRT

3. Pengeluaran Konsumsi Pemerintah

4. Pembentukan Modal Tetap Domestik Bruto

5. Perubahan Inventori

6. Ekspor Barang dan Jasa

7. Dikurangi Impor Barang dan Jasa

Diskrepansi Statistik

1

Gross Domestic Bruto (GDP)

1 529.1

30.7

180.0

891.1

77.8

600.3

585.4

5.2 2 728.8

1 567.4

31.9

254.2

925.5

80.9

620.1

613.9

0.8 2 866.9

1 188.1

23.7

133.7

688.7

55.1

497.3

468.2

39.4 2 157.8

1 201.2

24.2

176.8

709.6

56.3

505.1

473.1

39.2 2 239.3

1

_{Selisih GDP Industrial Origin dan GDP Pengeluaran}

Table 5

Growth Rate of GDP By Expenditure Base Year 2010

(percent)

Component

Qtr. I-2015

Over

Qtr. IV-2014

Qtr. II-2015

Over

Qtr. I-2015

Over

Qtr. I-2014

Qtr. II-2015

Over

Qtr. II-2014

Semester I-2015

Over

Semester I-2014

Source of Growth

Pertumbuhan

Qtr. II-2015

(y-on-y)

(1)

(2)

(3)

(4)

(5)

(6)

(7)

1. Pengeluaran Konsumsi Rumah Tangga

2. Pengeluaran Konsumsi LNPRT

3. Pengeluaran Konsumsi Pemerintah

4. Pembentukan Modal Tetap Domestik Bruto

5. Perubahan Inventori

6. Ekspor Barang dan Jasa

7. Dikurangi Impor Barang dan Jasa

Gross Domestic Bruto (GDP)

0.11 -1.19

-48.43

-4.77

-

-6.28

-10.04

-0.17

1.11

2.39

32.17

3.04 -

1.56

1.06

3.78

5.01 -8.25

2.71

4.29 -

-0.85

-2.27

4.72

4.97 -7.91

2.28

3.55 -

-0.13

-6.85

4.67

4.99 -8.08

2.47

3.92 -

-0.49

-4.62

4.70

2.66 -0.10

0.18

1.14 -

-0.03

-1.63

4.67

(9)

9

2 Table 2

Growth Rate of GDP By Industrial Origin Base Year 2010

(percent)

Industrial Origin Qtr. I-2015 Over Qtr. IV-2014 Qtr. II-2015 Over Qtr. I-2015 Qtr. I-2015 Over Qtr. I-2014 Qtr. II-2015 Over Qtr. II-2014 Semester I-2015 Over Semester I-2014 Source of Growth Pertumbuhan Qtr. II-2015 (y-on-y) (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7)

A. Pertanian, Kehutanan, dan Perikanan B.

Pertambangan dan Penggalian C.

Industri Pengolahan

D.

Pengadaan Listrik dan Gas

E.

Pengadaan Air, Pengelolaan Sampah, Limbah dan Daur Ulang

F.

Konstruksi

G.

Perdagangan Besar dan Eceran; Reparasi Mobil dan Sepeda Motor

H.

Transportasi dan Pergudangan

I.

Penyediaan Akomodasi dan Makan Minum J.

Informasi dan Komunikasi

K.

Jasa Keuangan dan Asuransi L.

Real Estat

M,N. Jasa Perusahaan

O.

Administrasi Pemerintahan, Pertahanan dan Jaminan Sosial Wajib

P.

Jasa Pendidikan

Q.

Jasa Kesehatan dan Kegiatan Sosial R,S,T,U.Jasa Lainnya

Nilai Tambah Bruto Atas Harga Dasar

Pajak Dikurang Subsidi Atas Produk

Gross Domestic Bruto (GDP)

14.85 -8.18 -0.53 -7.17 0.27 -5.95 -0.41 -1.25 0.20 2.61 0.71 1.17 2.24 -6.43 -10.89 -6.39 1.84 -0.43 10.31 -0.17 10.09 -2.57 3.86 4.43 0.19 3.14 3.94 3.62 1.74 2.08 -1.21 1.08 1.78 0.48 6.31 3.30 1.99 3.50 13.96 3.78 4.00 -1.23 3.97 1.73 2.27 6.03 3.96 6.26 3.56 10.06 7.57 5.26 7.36 4.71 5.92 7.34 8.00 4.44 16.25 4.72 6.64 -5.87 4.42 0.76 2.15 5.35 1.69 6.59 3.87 9.56 2.46 5.03 7.64 6.46 12.16 8.16 8.07 4.13 26.70 4.67 5.37 -3.58 4.20 1.23 2.21 5.68 2.79 6.43 3.72 9.81 4.97 5.14 7.50 5.58 9.05 7.76 8.04 4.28 21.59 4.70 0.91 -0.54 0.96 0.01 0.00 0.51 0.24 0.25 0.12 0.43 0.09 0.15 0.12 0.21 0.36 0.08 0.13 4.03 0.64 4.67

(10)

(11)

(12)

Source:

CEIC

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

6

8 10 12

2

4

6

8 10 12

2

4

6

8 10 12

2

4

6

8 10 12

2

4

6

8 10 12

2

4

6

8 2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

Inflation

(yoy growth, percent)

(13)

Group Spending

CPI

Jul 2015

CPI

Aug 2015

MOM

Jul 2015

MOM

Aug 2015

YOY

Aug 2014

YOY

Jul 2015

YOY

Aug 2015

Contr

Headline

121.26

121.73

0.93

0.39

3.84

7.26

7.18

7.18 1 Foodstuff

130.57

131.38

1.95

0.62

1.07

8.25

8.60

1.45

2 Food, beverages, cigarettes and

tobacco

122.59

123.27

0.51

0.55

6.30

7.83

7.91

1.27 3 Housing, water, electricity, and fuel

119.38

119.65

0.18

0.23

5.97

7.94

7.30

1.19 4 Clothing

109.16

109.20

0.41

0.03

4.40

3.34

3.12

0.50 5 Health

115.71

116.49

0.53

0.67

4.96

6.25

6.58

0.97 6 Education, recreation and sport

110.27

111.63

0.30

1.23

3.80

3.82

4.24

0.48

7 Transportation, communication and

finance

116.87

116.78

0.73 -0.07

1.66

7.99

7.92

1.31 CPI by Expenditure

(14)

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50 Ja

n

-08

Apr

-08

Jul

-08

O

kt

-08

Ja

n

-09

Apr

-09

Jul

-09

O

kt

-09

Ja

n

-10

Apr

-10

Jul

-10

O

kt

-10

Ja

n

-11

Ap

r-11

Jul

-11

O

kt

-11

Ja

n

-12

Apr

-12

Jul

-12

O

kt

-12

Ja

n

-13

Ap

r-13

Jul

-13

O

kt

-13

Ja

n

-14

Apr

-14

Jul

-14

O

kt

-14

Ja

n

-15

Apr

-15

Credit Growth

(yoy growth, percent)

Total Credit

Working Capital

Investment

Consumption

(15)

No

Type of Tax

2014

Realization

Revised 2105

State Budget

Target Δ%

(2014-2015)

Δ%

(2014-2015)

2014 as of July

31 2015 as of

July 31

A

Non Oil and Gas Income Tax

(PPh)

458,692.28

629,835.35

37.31 258.486,23 293.521,34

13.55 B

.

VAT and Luxuries

taxes

408.995,74

576.469,17

40,95

216,137.27 202.701,81 (6,22)

C Land taxes

23.475,71

26.689,88

13,69

1,049.73

558,07

(46,84)

D Oil and gas taxes

87.446,35

49.534,79

(43,35) 51,876.00

31.375,54

(39,52)

E Total A+B+C+D

897.456,86

1.244.723,88 38,69

479,001.27 499.738,89 4,33

F

Total A+B+C+D+E

984.903,21

1.294.258,67 31,41

530,877.27 531.114,43 0,04

Tax Revenue realization as of July 31

st

_,

(16)

0

200

400

600

800 1000

1200

1400

Ju

n

-0

0 M

ei-01

Ap

r-02

M

ar-03

Fe

b

-04

Jan

-05

D

es-0

5 N

o

v-0

6 Ok

t-0

7 Se

p

-08

Agu

-09

Ju

l-1

0 Ju

n

-1

1 M

ei-12

Ap

r-13

M

ar-14

Fe

b

-15

Palm Oil

(US Dollars per Metric Ton)

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160 Ju

n

-0

0 M

ei-01

Ap

r-02

M

ar-03

Fe

b

-04

Jan

-05

D

es-0

5 N

o

v-0

6 Ok

t-0

7 Se

p

-08

Agu

-09

Ju

l-1

0 Ju

n

-1

1 M

ei-12

Ap

r-13

M

ar-14

Fe

b

-15

Crude Oil

(US Dollars per Barrel)

0

50

100

150

200

250 Ju

n

-0

0 M

ei-01

Ap

r-02

M

ar-03

Fe

b

-04

Jan

-05

D

es-0

5 N

o

v-0

6 Ok

t-0

7 Se

p

-08

Agu

-09

Ju

l-10

Ju

n

-1

1 M

ei-12

Ap

r-13

M

ar-14

Fe

b

-15

Coal

(US Dollars per Metric Ton)

0

10.000

20.000

30.000

40.000

50.000

60.000 Ju

n

-0

0 Ju

n

-0

1 Ju

n

-0

2 Ju

n

-0

3 Ju

n

-0

4 Ju

n

-0

5 Ju

n

-0

6 Ju

n

-0

7 Ju

n

-0

8 Ju

n

-0

9 Ju

n

-1

0 Ju

n

-1

1 Ju

n

-1

2 Ju

n

-1

3 Ju

n

-1

4 Ju

n

-1

5 Nickle

(US Dollars per Metric Ton)

Commodity Price

(17)

0,0

0,2

0,4

0,6

0,8

1,0

1,2

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9 Ja

n

-12

Mar

-12

Mei-12

Jul

-12

Sep

-12

N

ov

-12

Ja

n

-13

Mar

-13

Mei-13

Jul

-13

Sep

-13

N

ov

-13

Ja

n

-14

Mar

-14

Mei-14

Jul

-14

Sep

-14

N

ov

-14

Ja

n

-15

Mar

-15

Mei-15

Policy Rates

(Percent)

Indonesia (LHS)

US (RHS)

China (LHS)

Japan (RHS)

Germany (RHS)

India (LHS)

(18)

Source: CEIC

-5

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5 Real Interest Rate

(Monthly, Gov.Bond 10y, %)

Indonesia

US

China

Japan

Germany

India

(19)

(20)

Data as of Aug 28,

2015

(21)

Indonesia

Russia

Brazil

South Africa

Australia

Source: CEIC

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

220 Exchange Rates

(22)

Short and long term challenges



Short term:

Potential growth is limited

--> stabilization over

growth



Medium-long term:

focus on supply constraint

(23)

Medium term and long-term

issues: how to improve

productivity

(24)

In technology: no self discovery

Source: Authors’ calculation using UN-Comtrade data

based on SITC classification

₂₄

(25)

Capability to undertake complex task is

still behind other middle income

countries



If products could not be

made in Indonesia, where

else can they be made?



From observed trade data,

Indonesia made progress in

improving capability to

export products requiring

more complex task (but so

does Vietnam)



Why matters? It reflects

institutional capacity and

ability to accumulate and

channel knowledge into

productive activities

25 Source: Atlas of Economic Complexity (Hausmann and Hidalgo et.al)

Not yet able to manage complex tasks?

(26)

Development challenges are beyond

macro-stability

26 Brazil

China

India

Indonesia

Malaysia

Philippines

Thailand

Vietnam

Characteristics (2013)

Population (person mn)

200.4 1,357.4

1,252.1

249.9

29.7

98.4

67.0

89.7 GDP Per Capita (in PPP, USD)

5,823

3,583

1,165

1,810

6,998

1,581

3,438

1,029

Density (person/sq km)

24.0

144.6

421.1

137.9

90.4

330.0

131.2

289.3 Real Exchange Rate Movement (%)

2003-2013 (average

68.3

31.4 -0.3

6.4

2.5

39.2

25.0

50.9 PISA Test Score (2012)

Math

391

613 351*

375

421

427

511 Science

406

580 348*

382

420

438

528 Broadband Penetration

Fixed (wired)-broadband subscriptions per

100 inhabitants (2013)

10.08

13.36

1.16

1.3

8.22

9.12

7.36

5.62 Logistics Performance Index (2014)

2.94

3.53

3.08

3.59

3.00

3.43

3.15 Percentage of shipment met quality

82

76

67

70

97

71

83

76

(27)

Policy anticipation

Short term

• Increase aggregate

demand:

• cash transfer,

• cash for work,

• tax incentive for

companies to keep their

workers

Medium term

• Infrastructure

• Human capital: Attract

FDI for technology spill

over

• Tax incentive for R&D,

training, export oriented

sector