Investment Division
Unit Link
Investment Outlook
Mei 2017
1
Investment Issues2
Allianz Fund Performance & Forecast1
1
Investment Issues
4
Indikator Makro Ekonomi
PDB
Inflasi
Nilai Tukar
Harga
Minyak
Mentah
7-day repo
rate
2014
5.1
8.4
10,452
97.0
-
2015
4.8
3.4
13,392
49.2
-
APBN-P
2016
5.2
4.0
13,500
40.0
4.75
APBN
2017
5.1
4.0
13,300
45.0
4.75
April
2017*
5.01
4.18
13,339
49.56
4.75
*Data realisasi s/d April 2017
5
Market Outlook Global – 2017
AMERIKA SERIKAT
EROPA
ASIA
Internal Use Only
• The Fed Mempertahankan Suku Bunga : FOMC meeting bulan Mei 2017 memutuskan untuk menahan suku bunga acuan FFR sebesar 0,75%-1,0%. The Fed menyatakan bahwa pasar tenaga kerja tumbuh solid, ditengah ekonomi AS yang tumbuh melambat awal tahun ini. Konsumsi rumah tangga tumbuh moderat dan laju inflasi diprediksi akan mencapai target 2 persen dalam jangka menengah.
• Proposal jaminan kesehatan yang diajukan Trump disetujui Kongres AS namun harus melalui voting di senat
•
Emmanuel Macron terpilih sebagai Presiden Prancis penerus Francois
Hollande berdasarkan hasil pemilihan umum Minggu, 6 Mei 2017.
Kemenangan tokoh berhaluan tengah tersebut juga membuat sejumlah
negara Eropa lain bernafas lega karena sempat khawatir atas kembangkitan
kelompok populis gaya Le Pen.
•
Tingkat penganguran zona Euro masih tetap di 9.5% di Maret 2017.
• Cadangan devisa Tiongkok Apr17 naik ke $3,03 triliun dari $3 triliun. Surplus dagang melebar ke $38,05 miliar dari $23,93 miliar.
• Manufacturing PMI Tiongkok turun ke level 51.2 dari 51.8 di bulan April 2017
• Tiongkok menjanjikan US$124 miliar untuk jalur sutera yang bertujuan membuka perdagangan dari Asia, Afrika, hingga Eropa, didukung pembangunan infrastruktur miliaran dollar. Jalur ini akan mendorong sistem perdagangan dan investasi dunia yang adil, setara, dan transparan.
6
Market Outlook Domestik – 2017
Ruang Pertumbuhan Masih Ada
• Pertumbuhan PDB 1Q2017 sesuai ekspektasi membaik hingga mecapai
5.01%YoY namun lebih rendah dari perkiraan konsensus 5.1%YoY. Ekspor
dan investasi masih menjadi motor pengrak utama. Diperkirakan kedepannya
dengan intensitas realisasi belanja pemerintah yang semakin membaik
pertumbuhan akan teus memperlihatkan angka perbaikan. Diperkirakan PDB
2017 akan membaik ke level 5.2% YoY. BKPM melaporkan realisasi investasi
di 1Q17 mencapai Rp165.8Triliun aau umbuh 13.5%YoY. PMA tumbuh 0.94%
ke Rp 97Triliun
Inflasi kembali Naik
• Setelah beberapa waktu inflasi bulanan relatif cukup rendah, inflasi tahunan
kembali naik ke level 4.17% . Siklus deflasi pangan yang terjadi akan berakhir
di Mei 2017 bersamaan dengan dimlanya bulan Ramadhandan efek dari
kelanjutan kenaikan tarif listrik 900VA. Diperkirakan inflasi akan naik ke level
4.2%-4.3% di bulan Mei. Namun masih sesuai dengan target inflasi
pemerintah di APBN inflasi berada di level 4% plus minus 1%
Dana Asing Menyelamatkan Neraca Pembayaran RI
• Bank Indonesia mengumumkan NPI kuartal I tahun 2017 kembali surplus
sebanyak US$ 4,5 miliar, meskipun di saat bersamaan transaksi berjalan
kembali defisit. Hal ini ditopang tingginya surplus transaksi modal dan finansial
yang melampaui defisit transaksi berjalan. Derasnya capital inflow terus
berdatangan pada instrumen berdenomenasi rupiah seperti Surat Utang
Negara (SUN), Surat Perbendaharaan Negara (SPN) dan saham, serta
penerbitan sukuk global pemerintah.
7
8
No. Fund 1 Bulan 3 Bulan 6 Bulan 1 Tahun 3 Tahun YTD
Total Aset IDR (Mil)
USD (Jt)
Peluncuran
Allianz Fund Performance - Conventional
1 SmartWealth Rupiah Equity
Infrastructure Fund 2.36% 9.53% 7.74% 24.14% 19.31% 8.69% 96.88 27-Sep-13
2 SmartWealth Equity Indoglobal
Fund 1.69% 5.48% 1.94% 12.49% N/A 5.84% 13.98 7-Nov-14
3 SmartWealth Rupiah Equity
IndoAsia Fund 1.65% 5.53% 1.57% 12.17% 13.71% 6.49% 613.65 5-May-11
4 Smartlink Rupiah Equity Fund 1.58% 5.67% 0.31% 11.59% 14.71% 5.60% 8.830,19 1-Sep-07
5 SmartWealth US Dollar Equity
IndoAsia Fund 1.74% 5.80% -0.36% 11.31% -0.89% 7.86% 46.14 1-May-12
6 SmartWealth Rupiah Equity
Small Medium Capital Fund 2.51% 6.74% 2.59% 11.06% -3.36% 6.19% 1.65 27-Sep-13
7 Smartlink Rupiah Balanced Plus
Fund 1.36% 5.25% 0.79% 10.54% 15.94% 5.59% 452.24 15-Jul-09
8 Smartlink Rupiah Balanced Fund 0.88% 3.97% 1.64% 7.92% 17.98% 4.63% 2.490,24 8-Mar-04
9 Smartlink Rupiah Fixed Income
Fund 0.52% 4.28% 2.98% 7.20% 22.73% 5.76% 996.27 25-May-01
10 SmartWealth Rupiah Equity
Indoconsumer Fund 1.65% 4.33% -1.50% 6.03% 11.32% 4.16% 96.13 17-Jun-13
11 Smartlink Rupiah Money Market
Fund 0.37% 1.16% 2.41% 5.09% 19.63% 1.61% 600.9 25-May-01
12 Smartlink Guardia Dana
Pendapatan Tetap 0,33% 1.05% 2.18% 4.46% N/A 1.46% 1.36 18-Aug-14
13 Smartlink Dollar Managed Fund 0.33% 2.75% 0.00% 4.22% 14.09% 4.05% 48.97 7-Apr-03
14 SmartWealth Liquiflex LQ45
Fund 2.13% 5.23% -2.34% -2.08% 1.50% 4.08% 113.5 3-Jul-13
9
No. Fund 1 Bulan 3 Bulan 6 Bulan 1 Tahun 3 Tahun YTD
Total Aset IDR (Mil)
USD (Jt)
Peluncuran
Allianz Fund Performance - Syariah
1 Allisya Rupiah Equity Fund 2.45% 6.63% -1.53% 10.88% 13.17% 5.98% 838.94 25-Apr-06
2 Allisya Rupiah Balanced Fund 1.52% 5.07% -0.02% 7.83% 14.07% 5.59% 534.91 7-Apr-03
3 Allisya Rupiah Fixed Income
Fund 0.46% 2.58% 2.14% 5.85% 18.53% 4.04% 76.21 15-Jul-09
10
No.
Fund
Jangka Pendek
Jangka Panjang
1 SmartWealth Dollar Equity IndoAsia Fund
2 SmartWealth Rupiah Equity IndoAsia Fund
3 SmartWealth Equity Indo Global Fund
4 SmartWealth Equity Small Medium Capital Fund
5 SmartWealth Equity Infrastructure Fund
6 SmartWealth Equity Indoconsumer Fund
7 Smartlink Rupiah Equity Fund
8 SmartWealth Equity Liquiflex LQ45 Fund
9 Smartlink Rupiah Balanced Plus Fund
10 Smartlink Rupiah Balanced Fund
11 Smartlink Dollar Managed Fund
12 Smartlink Guardia Dana Pendapatan Tetap
13 Smartlink Fixed Income Fund
14 Smartlink Rupiah Money Market Fund
Fund Forecast
Mei Investment Outlook
11
No.
Fund
Jangka Pendek
Jangka Panjang
1 Allisya Equity Fund
2 Allisya Balanced Fund
3 Allisya Fixed Income Fund
Fund Forecast
Mei Investment Outlook
Disclaimer
This document is prepared for general information only, and the specific investment
objectives, personal situation and particular needs of any person have not been taken into consideration.
You should read the relevant product and fund documentation, including the relevant product summary, product highlights sheets and fund summaries for details before
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The past performance of any fund is not necessarily indicative of the future or likely
performance of the fund. The value of investments and units in any fund June go down as well as up, which is an investment risk which you June face.
You should not rely on this document as investment advice. If you have any concerns about any investment products or are uncertain about the suitability of any investment decision, you should seek such financial advice from your professional advisers as appropriate.
Information contained in this document is obtained from sources believed to be reliable, however Allianz does not guarantee its completeness or accuracy. Opinions and estimates expressed are subject to change without notice and Allianz expressly disclaims any and all liability for representations and warranties, express or implied, contained herein, or for omissions.
