Juanda1, Stefan Schwarze2, Stephan von Cramon-Taubadel3
1. Georg-August-Universität Göttingen, Tropical and International Agriculture, Germany; 2. Georg-August-Universität Göttingen, Department of Agricultural Economics and Rural Development, Germany; 3. Georg-August-Universität Göttingen, Department of Agricultural Economics and Rural Development, Germany
Introduction
Results and Discussion
Conclusion
Reducing poverty has become an essential part of the Millennium Development Goals (MDG) and need to achieve.
Microenterprises (MEs) have played an important role in rural developmental activities and were long recognized as vital in poverty alleviation in Indonesia.
The developing world has in fact led the way in promoting the importance of rural finance.
Access to commercial services is restricted in rural areas and the services can not meet the demand for financial services by rural households.
Many microenterprises belong to poor and they are unable to provide collateral.
Objectives
There were two objectives formulated in this research:
1. To provide a review for the gap between the number of microenterprises being assisted and the overall number who might need assistance.
2. To determine effect of determinant factors which were found in research area to ownership of standard collateral for access to microcredit.
Material and Methods
Figure 1. Map of Aceh Besar District
The Microenterprises
Credit Access and Participation
Figure 4. Credit limit of MEs
Ability to Provide Collateral
Table 2. Probit Regression for ability to provide collateral
Being married increases the probability of being able to provide collateral significantly by 27.20 percentage points.
The time spent to reach a bank has a negative impact on probability of being able to provide collateral by 2.68 percentage points.
Number of employees has a significant positive impact on probability of being able to provide collateral by 18.20 percentage points.
Running a handicraft business increases the probability of the ability to provide collateral by 41.70 percentage points.
About 60% of MEs had ability to provide collateral for access to credit, while others 40%
did not.
Based on their access and participation: 88% of MEs were non-credit constrained MEs and 12% of MEs were credit-constrained MEs.
Majority of microenterprises (7%) had credit limit below 50 million, the maximum credit that is defined as microcredit in Indonesia.
Marital status of micro-entrepreneurs, number of employee, and running handicraft business increase the ability to provide collateral for access significantly, while time spent to reach the bank decrease the ability to provide collateral for access significantly.
• The Research was conducted in Aceh Besar Dist., Nanggroe Aceh Darussalam Prov., Indonesia.
• Total 100 MEs were randomly selected to be interviewed.
Acknowledgement
Thank you for Triangle Partnerships, GAUG-IPB-Unsyiah for the support of my study
Thank you for DAAD for the support in financing this research
Ability to provide collateral* dF/dx Std. Err. P>|z|
Age (years old) 0.18% 0.0068 0.794
Gender(female=0, male=1)* 14.57% 0.2070 0.499
Years of education (years) -1.19% 0.0175 0.495
Marital status (non-married=0, married=1)* 27.20% 0.1348 0.046 Time spent to reach the banks (minutes) -2.68% 0.0078 0.001
Length of business (years) -0.99% 0.0081 0.226
Number of employee 18.20% 0.0780 0.021
Running food production business (no=0, yes=1)* 6.17% 0.2855 0.833 Running embroidery business (no=0, yes=1)* 8.52% 0.3299 0.804 Running trading/retailing business (no=0, yes=1)* -11.48% 0.2680 0.662 Running sewing business (no=0, yes=1)* 32.93% 0.1755 0.180 Running blacksmith business (no=0, yes=1)* -8.86% 0.3095 0.770 Running handicraft business (no=0, yes=1)* 41.70% 0.0891 0.061
Obs. P 0.6
Pred. P 0.6434913 (at x-bar)
Probit regression, reporting marginal effects Number of obs = 100 LR chi2(13) = 38.92 Prob > chi2 = 0.0002 Log likelihood = -47.841679 Pseudo R2 = 0.2891
(*) dF/dx is for discrete change of dummy variable from 0 to 1 z and P>|z| correspond to the test of the underlying coefficient being 0 Source: Own data
40%
42%
10%
1%
7%
0
>0-10 million
>10-20 million
>20-50 million
>50 million
Credit Limit
IDR, 1 US$ ≈ IDR9000
In Indonesia, the official definition of microcredit covers all loans under IDR 50 million (approximately US$5,500).
Only seven percent of microenterprises have credit limit above IDR 50 million (Figure 4).
Out of 100 MEs, 60 had ability to provide collateral for access to credit, while others 40 MEs did not.
Out of 100 MEs, 88 MEs were non-credit constrained MEs and 12 MEs were credit-constrained MEs.
Source : Own data
Figure 3. Gap Between Microenterprises Source : Own data
Source : Own data
Figure 2. Sectors of business
22%
19%
17%
13%
12%
10%
7%
Food Prod.
Embroidery Sewing Trading Blacksmith Handicraft Others
Sectors of businesses involved in research area are shown in Figure 2.
Tropentag 2008
International Research on Food Security, Natural Resource Management and Rural Development
Competition for Resources in a Changing World: New Drive for
Rural Development
Book of Abstracts
Editor: Eric Tielkes
Scientific committee: Folkard Asch, Georg Cadisch, Ludwig Kammesheidt Reviewers of abstracts: Mathias Becker, Gertrud Buchenrieder,
Martin Dieterich, Gerd Förch, Eckard George, Ken Giller, Gabriele Hörstgen-Schwark, Rainer Jörgensen, Bastian Kaiser, Dieter Kirschke, Michael Köhl, Ronald Kühne, Wolfgang Lücke, Björn Niere, Kurt-Johannes Peters, Matin Qaim, Stephan Rist,
Andreas Susenbeth, Hermann Waibel
Editorial assistance: Andreas Deininger, Janina Schütte
Cuvillier Verlag Göttingen
Die Deutsche Bibliothek — Cataloguing in Publication-Data (CIP)
Competition for Resources in a Changing World: New Drive for Rural Development:
International research on food security, natural resource management and rural development; book of abstracts / Tropentag 2008 Stuttgart-Hohenheim.
Hrsg.: Eric Tielkes ISBN: 3-86727-372-3 978-3-86727-372-5
© University of Hohenheim, Centre for Agriculture in the Tropics and Subtropics, Germany
Online-Versions:
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In recent years the TROPENTAG has become the most important International Con- ference on development-oriented research in the fields of Food Security, Natural Re- source Management and Rural Development in central Europe. Since 1999 it is convened alternately by a number of German Universities in co-operation with AT- SAF and GTZ/BEAF, all of them are engaged in agriculture and forestry in tropical countries. The TROPENTAG provides an international platform for scientific and personal exchange for students, junior and senior scientists, and development practi- tioners alike. The increasing international interest in the TROPENTAG from a large and still growing audience - some 850 participants from 72 countries have registered so far - demonstrates its importance on the agenda of both, the development oriented scientific community and the implementing development organisations.
The TROPENTAG 2008, organised by the Centre for Agriculture in the Tropics and Subtropics of the University of Hohenheim, will be held under the conference theme
“Competition for Resources in a Changing World: New Drive for Rural Develop- ment”.
After many years of public disregard, agriculture is back in the headlines. The con- ference aims to shed light on the opportunities, threats and challenges triggered by the ongoing boom in agriculture. Growing demand for food for a still rapidly in- creasing population in the South, an alarming decrease in available arable land, and the emergence of bio-energy production as a new powerful and competitive player have contributed to recent price hikes in agricultural commodities. This development increases the value of agricultural enterprises and stimulates investment in this long- time neglected sector. Better-off farmers and international companies will most likely benefit from the recent trends in agriculture, whereas resource-poor rural people, be- ing economically unable to take part in the new drive in rural development, may be left even more vulnerable and dependent. Land degradation, increasing scarcity of water and negative impacts of climate change, which are intensively hitting the tropics and subtropics, may counteract potentially positive developments. The agricultural sec- tor being a significant contributor to greenhouse gas emissions and one of the largest water users, also holds the key to alleviating emerging problems by developing more resource-efficient, productive, climate-friendly and sustainable land use systems.
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global, regional, farm and field level, considering resource allocation and use, biodi- versity and income generation.
To broaden the accessibility of the results of this venue the abstracts of all contribu- tions are published both as hardcopies and on the Internet under www.tropentag.de.
Georg Cadisch, Ludwig Kammesheidt, Bärbel Sagi and Folkard Asch Organising and Scientific Committee of the TROPENTAG 2008
The organisers thankfully acknowledge the generous support by the following institutions:
Deutsche Gesellschaft für Technische Zusammenarbeit (GTZ) GmbH commissioned by the Bundesministerium für wirtschaftliche Zusammenarbeit und Entwicklung (BMZ) # Deutsche Phytomedizinische Gesellschaft e.V. (DPG) # Vater und Sohn Eiselen Stiftung, Ulm # NATURA - Network of European Agricultural Universities # University of Hohenheim # Centre for Agri- culture in the Tropics and Subtropics of the University of Hohenheim
I Economics 7
1.1 Economic development and policy 9
1.2 Knowledge, innovation and adaptation 15
1.3 Small-scale farming and value chains 33
1.4 Climate change, food and agriculture (GTZ) 39
1.5 High-value supply chains and contract farming 45
1.6 Agricultural markets, transaction costs and rural finance 55
1.7 Resource allocation and household welfare 67
1.8 Food security, food prices and institutional analysis tools 73 1.9 Economic development and policy: case studies and others 81
II Plant systems 89
2.1 Integrated pest management 91
2.2 Abiotic stresses - characterisation, effects and management concepts 103
2.3 Cropping systems 109
2.4 Organic matter, microorganisms and organic farming principles 115 2.5 Post harvest technology and quality - a neglected relation 121
2.6 Crop quality 133
2.7 Genetic resources 149
2.8 Forage production and plant pollution 165
2.9 Abiotic stresses: drought, salinity, nutrients and fertiliser 173 2.10 Composts, organic substrates and (bio)fertilisers 191
2.11 Organic farming: theory and practise 199
2.12 Biocontrol and natural enemies 207
2.13 Biopesticides, mycorrhiza and others 223
2.14 Weeds and invasive plants 235
2.15 Cropping systems: resource use and technologies 245
III Animal sciences 261
3.1 Animal nutrition 263
3.2 Livestock production systems 269
3.3 Aquaculture, fisheries and basic research in animal science 275
3.4 New approaches in animal husbandry 283
3.5 Carcass and meat quality of farmed animals 291
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3.7 Livestock systems: dairy and meat production 311
3.8 Livestock systems: production and development 323
3.9 Animal nutrition: ruminants 335
3.10 Animal nutrition: monogastrics 349
IV Natural resources 363
4.1 New perspectives for sustainable forest management 365
4.2 Non-timber forest products and agroforestry 371
4.3 Water, soil and crop management 377
4.4 Soil fertility management 395
4.5 Soil fertility management: impacts on soil and vegetation 401
4.6 Agroforestry: management and impact 415
4.7 Cultural and socioeconomic aspects of forest management 429
4.8 Ecology and genetics of tropical forests 437
4.9 Ecology of Mexican forests 447
V Social resources 453
5.1 Biofuel vs. food and bioenergy crops 455
5.2 The multidimensionality of participatory development 467
5.3 Land use and biodiversity conservation 473
5.4 Rural development 487
5.5 Rural development and food security 493
5.6 The role of forests in conserving natural resources 503 5.7 Farmers’ perceptions, participation and adoption 513
Index of Authors 525
Index of Keywords 537
Economics
1.1 Economic development and policy 9
1.2 Knowledge, innovation and adaptation 15
1.3 Small-scale farming and value chains 33
1.4 Climate change, food and agriculture (GTZ) 39
1.5 High-value supply chains and contract farming 45
1.6 Agricultural markets, transaction costs and rural finance 55
1.7 Resource allocation and household welfare 67
1.8 Food security, food prices and institutional analysis tools 73 1.9 Economic development and policy: case studies and others 81
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Oral Presentations 10 ALCIDOELENORWANDER, SYDÊNIA DEMIRANDAFERNAN-
DES, CARLOSMAGRIFERREIRA:
The Competitiveness of Brazilian Rice in the World Market:
A Comparative Advantage Approach 10
CLEMENSBREISINGER, XINSHENDIAO:
Economic Transformation – Theory, Empirical Evidence and Lessons from Successful Developing Countries 11 GABRIELAALCARAZV.:
Mapping Poverty: How Many Different Geographic Profiles can we Produce? An Application to Latin American Small
Area Estimates 12
KATISCHINDLER:
Time Allocation, Poverty and Gender: Evidence from Post-
War Rwanda 13
9
The Competitiveness of Brazilian Rice in the World Market: A Comparative Advantage Approach
ALCIDOELENORWANDER1, SYDÊNIA DEMIRANDAFERNANDES2, CARLOS
MAGRIFERREIRA1
1Brazilian Agricultural Research Corporation (EMBRAPA), National Rice and Beans Research Center (CNPAF), Brazil
2Federal University of Goias (UFG), School of Agronomy and Food Engineering, Brazil
Among cereals, rice represents a major source of food for an important part of global population. As rice world stocks fall and prices climb, the food security of many coun- tries can be negatively affected. However, for rice exporting countries, new opportu- nities may arise from this new scenario, where currently only 7 % of total production is being internationally traded. New players may appear in the rice market while oth- ers may reduce their participation. Based on this assumption, this paper’s aim was to analyse the international competitiveness of Brazilian rice considering the world market as well as some selected rice producing and exporting countries as potential competitors. As main producers in year 2005, based on the amount of produced paddy rice obtained from FAO data, China, India and Indonesia were considered; As main exporters in 2005, based on the monetary value of exports obtained from WTO data, United States of America, Uruguay and China were taken into consideration. For the analysis, the Revealed Comparative Advantage (RCA) Index was used. According to RCA-Index, a country would have a revealed comparative advantage and be compet- itive if the RCA-Index is higher than 1.0. The analysis considered the period from 1995 to 2005. The main findings were that, so far, Brazil has no comparative advan- tage in producing rice and exporting it to the world market. From the considered countries, in the past 10 years, Brazilian rice could only compete with Indonesian rice i.e., the RCA-Index used to be higher than 1.0. Thus, Brazil’s participation in the world market depends on structural changes in the rice market as well as on issues related to cropping systems that may arise in the future.
Keywords: Comparative advantage, competitiveness, rice market
Contact Address: Alcido Elenor Wander, Brazilian Agricultural Research Corporation (EMBRAPA), National Rice and Beans Research Center (CNPAF), Rodovia GO-462, km 12, 75375-000 Santo Anto- nio de Goias, Brazil, e-mail:[email protected]
Economic Transformation – Theory, Empirical Evidence and Lessons from Successful Developing Countries
CLEMENSBREISINGER, XINSHENDIAO
International Food Policy Research Institute, Development Strategy and Governance, United States of America
Our research is motivated by encouraging signs of growth acceleration in Africa that may her- ald a new development era of rapid transformation. This paper provides an extensive litera- ture review on development economics, empirical observations from successfully transforming countries and analytic narratives on Thailand and Mexico. We find that the traditional devel- opment theory is consistent with past experiences of countries that moved from low to middle income level. However, this theory needs to be broadened in the light of rising inequalities during transformation.
Successful transformation vitally depends on agricultural development and industrialisation strategies. An early withdrawal of attention away from agriculture slows down transformation and resulting inequalities have become a persistent development challenge. By-passing small farmers in the process of agricultural modernisation has marginalised a large group of the rural population. This has not only led to short term social tensions, but also made long-run poverty reduction and improvements in inequality an extremely difficult task, even after countries have reached middle income status.
Winner-picking industrialisation strategies and related policies have created big industrial sec- tors, but these sectors have often failed to establish close links with the rest of the economy.
Increased inequality and the difficulties to make these “picked” sectors internationally com- petitive and to generate sustainable long-term economic growth are all painful lessons drawn from this type of transformation strategy. On the other hand, private sector-led manufacturing growth, which is more of a “home-grown” nature and starts from a realistic base, is likely to be more consistent with a country’s initial conditions and comparative advantage.
Unleashing agricultural and industrial growth potentials in Africa requires government action to significantly improve the business environment. Public investments in infrastructure and im- provements of the institutional environment for doing business are critical. In agriculture, the most important policy action is the removal of urban-biased and industrial-biased policies in trade, marketing, taxes and many other macroeconomic aspects. The most important public investment is in rural infrastructure and agricultural research and extension. As in other coun- tries, African farmers will use this opportunity to transform traditional agriculture and thereby contribute to the successful transformation of their economies.
Keywords: Africa, economic growth, inequality, transformation
Contact Address: Clemens Breisinger, International Food Policy Research Institute, Development Strategy and Governance, 2033 K Street NW, 20006 Washington, United States of America, e-mail:
Mapping Poverty: How Many Different Geographic Profiles can we Produce? An Application to Latin American Small Area
Estimates
GABRIELAALCARAZV.
University of Hohenheim, Institue of Agricultural Economics and Social Sciences in the Tropics and Subtropics, Germany
The study of the geographic distribution of poverty has gained considerable attention in recent times. Several methods have been developed and tested in different coun- tries with the aim of producing disaggregated poverty incidence estimates that can be portrayed in maps. For the case of Latin America, countries such as Bolivia, Brazil, Ecuador, Guatemala, Honduras, Nicaragua, Panama, and Paraguay have joined these efforts and produced updated geographic poverty profiles. These profiles can serve as support for the identification of priority areas, the allocation of public expenditure, and for policy making. As well, they can aid in the formulation of hypotheses as re- gard causal factors of poverty and the validation of estimation results. Poverty maps are created by classifying poverty incidence estimates into groups that reflect various degrees of poverty. Several classification approaches are available and very often, they produce different geographic profiles. In spite of this, most of the current poverty map- ping exercises lack of precise documentation about the classification approach used and their rationale. This work reviews alternative classification approaches and their implications for map display and interpretation. Using data from selected Latin Amer- ican countries, the analysis begins with the exploration of the spatial trend observed in the poverty incidence estimates. Afterwards, alternative classification approaches are used for the creation of poverty profiles and compared for consistency with the observed trend. The results clearly show how clusters of certain degrees of poverty appear or disappear depending on the classification approach used and how certain profiles deviate from the observed trend in the unclassed data. It is strongly recom- mended that poverty map makers evaluate the consistency of their displays with the data trend in order to transmit their findings, and that the proper documentation of the mapping process is included for an adequate map interpretation.
Keywords: Choropleth map, classification method, Latin America, poverty incidence
Contact Address: Gabriela Alcaraz V., University of Hohenheim, Institue of Agricultural Economics and Social Sciences in the Tropics and Subtropics, Univ. of Hohenheim (490a), 70599 Stuttgart, Ger- many, e-mail:[email protected]
Time Allocation, Poverty and Gender: Evidence from Post-War Rwanda
KATISCHINDLER
DIW Berlin, Department of International Economics, Germany
This paper analyses the impact of gender on time allocation in a developing country context, using household survey data from Rwanda. Even though more than a decade has passed since the genocide, Rwandan society still bears the demographic impact of the conflict, which killed many more men than women. In the aftermath of the genocide, the share of female-headed households increased sharply and many women became the principal income-earner of their household.
The paper addresses these issues by analysing the determinants of time allocation on domestic activities, such as water fetching and cooking, and on market activities, including wage work and self-employment. This paper contributes to the literature in two ways. First, it extends the framework of gender indicators and accounts for interrelations between different indicators. More specifically, the paper compares the impact of 1) gender of head, 2) the regime of intra-household decision-making processes, 3) an individual’s position within the household hierarchy, and 4) civil status. Second, this paper applies the analysis both to the unit of the household and of the individual.
Methodologically, the paper applies probit and tobit estimations and differentiates between the participation in a particular activity and the intensity of time allocated to an activity, expressed as shares of total time. This approach accounts for the selection into an activity.
Results reveal three issues. First, household composition has the most important ef- fect on how men and women, but also male-headed and female-headed households allocate their time. The presence of adult males particularly increases household time spent in wage work — an important income source that insures household income against agricultural risks in rural areas. Second, household hierarchy and gender are interrelated as women heads do engage more intensively in domestic tasks. Given that domestic tasks contribute less to the household income this may explain the higher in- cidence of poverty among female-headed households. Third, more time is devoted to wage work if the decision-making authority is concentrated in the head. The findings of this paper make a strong argument for the provision of basic infrastructure which might particularly increase women’s time shares in market activities.
Keywords: Gender, household, poverty, Rwanda, Sub-Saharan Africa, time alloca- tion
Contact Address: Kati Schindler, DIW Berlin, Department of International Economics, Mohrenstr. 58, 10117 Berlin, Germany, e-mail:[email protected]
Invited Paper 17 RALFSCHLAUDERER:
High Demand to Find Pathways to Secure Food for Man 17
Oral Presentations 18
FRANKHARTWICH:
Rural Knowledge Networks and Dynamics of Innovation: Lessons from Bolivia’s Smallholder Agriculture 18 PEPIJNSCHREINEMACHERS, SITHIDECHROYGRONG, CHAKRIT
POTCHANASIN, THOMASBERGER:
The Declining Profitability of Litchi Fruit Orchards in North- ern Thailand: Can Agricultural Innovations Reverse the Trend? 19 NDOHMBUEINNOCENT:
Towards a Sustainable Landuse Option in the Bamenda High- lands, Cameroon: Implications for Sustainable Food Supply, Income Generation and Climate Change Mitigation 20
Posters 21
EEFJEAARNOUDSE, RONALDJ.P.J. SERHALAWAN, TILFEIKE: Training Female Farmers as a Tool for Rural Development - A Review on Experiences from Bali, Indonesia 21 TILFEIKE, QINGCHEN, JUDITHPFENNING, SIMONEGRÄFF- HÖNNINGER, GUDRUNZÜHLKE, WILHELMCLAUPEIN: Knowledge Transfer Systems in China: An Example of Veg- etable Intercropping Systems in Hebei Province 22 RAINERZACHMANN, KRISHNAALLURI, NICHOLASKIMOLO: Development of Agricultural Open Educational Resources through
the Use of Wikieducator 23
RAINERZACHMANN, KRISHNAALLURI:
Technology-Mediated Open and Distance Education (Tech-MODE) for Agricultural Education and Improved Livelihoods in Sub-
Saharan Africa 25
EMMANUELOBUOBIE, BERNDDIEKKRÜGER:
Using SWAT to Evaluate Climate Change Impact on the Wa- ter Resources in the White Volta River Basin, West Africa 27
15
MARCVÖLKER, ERICHSCHMIDT, HERMANNWAIBEL: Approaches to Modelling Vulnerability to Poverty in Rural Households in Thua Thien Hue Province, Viet Nam 28 KARENTSCHERNING, STEFANSIEBER, KARL-OTTOWENKEL, KURT CHRISTIAN KERSEBAUM, OTTFRIEDDIETRICH, HEN-
NINGBAUR, JOHANNESDIETZ, AICHIJ. KITALYI, FRIEDRICH- WILHELMGERSTENGARBE:
Climate Change Impact Assessment and Adaptation Options in Vulnerable Agro-Landscapes in East-Africa 29 CLAUDIAHEIDECKE:
Economic Effects of Climate Change in the Middle Drâa Val-
ley in Morocco 30
LENAHOHFELD, HERMANNWAIBEL, FREDWEIROWSKI: Motivation of CSR Orientated Public Private Partnerships in
Fisheries and Agriculture Development 31
High Demand to Find Pathways to Secure Food for Man
RALFSCHLAUDERER
University of Applied Sciences Weihenstephan, Department of Agriculture, Germany Last years showed declining reserves of major food stuff due to further increasing world population, limited land resources and declining yield increases. As a result food prices increased rapidly and released increased social problems which partly even led to riots, since people were not able to pay their daily food.
Forecasts show, that world population will grow from about 6.7 billions today to about 9.1 billions in 2050 - an increase of about 50 % or about 81 million per year. Already today it is estimated, that more than 800 million people do not have enough to eat day by day or seasonally. It has to be worried, that this number will increase, if there will be no basic advances in food production, storage and proceeding. The development will hit particularly the people who do already struggle to feed themselves and their families because of very limited resources and income.
An increase of food production by using additional land seems to be only possible on a limited scale. The major productive land resources are already used. Further extension of arable land will come across environmental issues such as sustainability of land use, limited water resources or erosion. On the other side increasing fuel prices made biofuel production economically more interesting and so an additional competition for land was generated.
To overcome this arising problematic situation and to be able to feed the increasing world population on a sustainable way, we do have to support research to increase our knowledge about these fields. We do need innovations in the different areas to improve food production and food availability on a sustainable way. And last but not least we do have to bring this knowledge and innovations to the people who need this information in a way, that they are able to adapt it into their daily live. It is not sufficient to have scientific solutions as long as “solutions” are not adapted by the people. We still need more information about the socio-economic forces improving or hindering the adaption processes in different regions. These fields, which were not in the focus of the international community in the last decades, have to be followed forcefully to overcome this serious emerging situation.
Keywords: Development strategies, food security
Contact Address: Ralf Schlauderer, University of Applied Sciences Weihenstephan, Department of Agriculture, Steingruberstraße 2, 91746 Weidenbach, Germany, e-mail: ralf.schlauderer@
fh-weihenstephan.de
Rural Knowledge Networks and Dynamics of Innovation: Lessons from Bolivia’s Smallholder Agriculture
FRANKHARTWICH Swiss College of Agriculture (SHL), Switzerland
This contribution presents results from a study on how the inclusion of relational parameters describing connectivity and embeddedness in social networks affects a model that explains adoption of innovation among small farmers. Empirical evidence is derived from rural communities in four microregions in Bolivia that have used a set of innovations including improved seed varieties as well as new plant protection, harvest and post-harvest methods in the production of quinoa, a high altitude staple grain. A robust Tobit regression model was applied to analyse variation in levels of adoption depicted by the average degree of adoption across the diverse components of the set of innovations promoted in every microregion. Embeddedness in social networks was measured in terms of degree centrality of every farmer in the affiliation network, a term calculated from the count of ties between farmers and other change agents normalised by the maximum number of change agents each farmer could have been affiliated with.
Results show that neither one of the three factors, framework conditions, innovative capabilities and networking alone were able to sufficiently explain adoption of local farmers; however in combination the three factors could explain up to 45 of the vari- ation in the adoption rates. The inclusion of the networking variable in the model improved the overall fit from 37 to 45 %. Degree centrality alone did not improve the overall explanatory power of the model; improvement of fit was rather achieved through including the frequency of farmer’s interactions with a number of change agents such as technology transfer agents, development projects and NGOs, neigh- bouring producers, input providers, buyers and local authorities. This indicates that innovation processes are indeed of collective character. Interaction with a single exten- sion worker or project agent is not enough; rather it is the simultaneous relationship with a range of change agents which does enable small producers to apply innovations on their farms. The results lead to the conclusion that development projects fostering agricultural innovation in regions such as rural Bolivia shall focus on knowledge and technologies that respond to the local capacities among smallholders and their endow- ment with resources.
Keywords: Adoption, Bolivia, rural innovation, social networks
Contact Address: Frank Hartwich, Swiss College of Agriculture (SHL), Länggasse 85, 3052 Zollikofen, Switzerland, e-mail:[email protected]
The Declining Profitability of Litchi Fruit Orchards in Northern Thailand: Can Agricultural Innovations Reverse the Trend?
PEPIJNSCHREINEMACHERS1, SITHIDECHROYGRONG2, CHAKRIT
POTCHANASIN1, THOMASBERGER1
1University of Hohenheim, Institute for Agricultural Economics and Social Sciences in the Tropics and Subtropics, Germany
2University of Hohenheim, Institute for Plant Nutrition, Germany
The profitability of litchi growing in northern Thailand has declined during the last 15 years.
The potential substitution of seasonal field crops for litchi trees has created concerns about in- creased levels of erosion, pesticide use, and irrigation water demands. In response, researchers have been developing various technical innovations that could make litchi growing more prof- itable again.
The objective of this paper is to ex-ante evaluate four of these innovations: artificial flower induction to produce off-season fruits, village level fruit drying, improved shelf-life and fruit quality, and greater irrigation efficiency. These innovations were evaluated in terms of five indicators: profitability of litchi growing, farm household incomes, area under litchi orchards, irrigation water use, and the environmental impact of pesticides as based on the environmental impact quotient of pesticides (EIQ method). As some innovations (artificial flowering and improved self-life) are only at a research stage, assumptions were made about their likely costs and benefits.
The profitability of litchi growing and the four innovations was assessed through financial anal- ysis. Although the results show that each innovation could increase profits of litchi growing, this is no guarantee for farm level adoption. For this, opportunity costs, resource constraints, risk aversion, and knowledge need to be taken into account. To do this, an integrated land use model was developed that used an agent-based modelling approach to capture the heterogeneity in opportunity costs between households and to capture the dynamics of innovation diffusion.
The model was calibrated to the Mae Sa watershed area in Chiang Mai province. Located about 40 km northwest of the rapidly expanding town of Chiang Mai, the watershed has seen rapid economic development which has created various farm and non-farm alternatives to litchi growing. Farmers have increasingly left their litchi orchards unmanaged or have cut down trees to replace them with more profitable crops. The watershed is hence not representative for northern Thailand but could be a prospect for other areas in northern Thailand.
Using scenario analysis, each innovation is separately introduced into the model allowing a comparison of their effects. In addition, the innovations are introduced simultaneously to anal- yse their combined effect.
Keywords: Agent-based modelling, agricultural economics, ex-ante technology assessment, pesticides
Contact Address: Pepijn Schreinemachers, University of Hohenheim, Institute for Agricultural Eco- nomics and Social Sciences in the Tropics and Subtropics, Fruwirthstrasse 12, 70599 Stuttgart, Ger- many, e-mail:[email protected]
Towards a Sustainable Landuse Option in the Bamenda Highlands, Cameroon: Implications for Sustainable Food Supply,
Income Generation and Climate Change Mitigation
NDOHMBUEINNOCENT
China University of Geosciences, Environmental Sciences and Engineering, China A land use option that can contribute to climate change mitigation and welfare im- provement of poor smallholder farmers who cannot integrate traditional markets, but need alternatives for income generation, remains a challenge for researchers and pol- icy makers in the Bamenda highlands. In a degrading agricultural landscape as such, where traditional cultivations and pasture have released quantities of greenhouse gases that are today significant in terms of their current impact and potential for long-term contribution to global warming, carbon sequestration projects, like agro forestry, can be an alternative. To verify this hypothesis, cost benefit analysis was employed. To estimate opportunity cost of land use change, the net present value of agroforestry was compared with those of pasture and traditional cultivations. Some indicators of profitability and cash flow viability (net present value, pay back, etc.) were used.
Sensitivity analysis was used to simulate some salient conditions like interest rates, es- tablishment costs and carbon prices. To complement these results, a rapid ecological services assessment was undertaken. This was to determine the relative contributions of the different options to environmental “viability”. All the options were found to be economically viable. However, agro forestry (NPV = USD 1361 ha-1, IRR=30 %, payback 4.5 years), though not as profitable as the pasture (NPV = USD 6829 ha-1, IRR=63 %, payback 2 years), appears to be the only option that can meet up with the current challenges. Opportunity cost is least (USD 2.09 ha-1) for a change from tradi- tional cultivations to agroforestry than from pasture to agroforestry (USD 12.16 ha-1).
However, land suitability analysis, education and precise silvicultural practices would be an asset.
Keywords: Cost benefit analysis, environmental viability, opportunity cost
Contact Address: Ndoh Mbue Innocent, China University of Geosciences, Environmental Sciences and Engineering, 388 Lumo Road., 430074 Wuhan, China, e-mail:[email protected]
Training Female Farmers as a Tool for Rural Development - A Review on Experiences from Bali, Indonesia
EEFJEAARNOUDSE1, RONALDJ.P.J. SERHALAWAN2, TILFEIKE3 1Wageningen University, Irrigation and Water Management, The Netherlands
2Pt. Dif Nusantara, Bali Fresh Female Farmers Partnership, Indonesia
3University of Hohenheim, Inst. for Crop Production and Grassland Research, Germany Over the last decades Bali’s economy has been flourishing due to the growing tourism sector. However, the sector has experienced a sudden decline after the Bali bombing in 2002. This incident caused many rural communities to lose their extra income from the tourist sector and made them rely on agricultural activities again. As the tourist sector is steadily recovering in some regions, direct profit for the rural population is still minimal. New ways have to be found to provide them income possibilities.
Although women are carrying out most of the work in Balinese communities, decision making is still lying in the hands of men. Thus empowerment of women in rural regions is also a key issue which needs to be addressed.
The demand of fresh, high quality vegetables by tourists is a possible income source for rural communities. The “Bali Fresh Femal Farmers Partnership” (BFFFP) is a co- operation which was created to provide small farmers market access. A close network of local women with an input supplier, a sales company and horticultural experts was initiated, to ensure production and marketing of high-value products. The climate of the highlands of Kintamani, where the BFFFP is located, is highly suitable for grow- ing vegetables. However, most farmers still restrict themselves to growing low profit crops, such as cabbage and onion. To enable the female farmers to produce high- value crops, such as bell pepper and various lettuces, practical and financial support was given in the beginning of the project.
Currently about fifty women are organised in small groups of ten farmers. Frequent meetings with all stakeholders along the production and marketing chain are held to ensure quality and marketability of the products. Adoption of improved production systems by the female farmers, to enable them to independently and continuously deliver the demanded vegetables to the tourist regions in a long run, is the target. Up to now still difficulties occur regarding amount and timing of fertilisation, as well as precise yield predictions. Therefore ongoing consulting and training is necessary. By increased expertise and money inflow local women experience a stronger position in the local community.
Keywords: Gender, market access, production chain, development
Contact Address: Eefje Aarnoudse, Wageningen University, Irrigation and Water Management, Swift- straat 14, 3076 SP Rotterdam, The Netherlands, e-mail:[email protected]
Knowledge Transfer Systems in China: An Example of Vegetable Intercropping Systems in Hebei Province
TILFEIKE1, QINGCHEN2, JUDITHPFENNING3, SIMONEGRÄFF-HÖNNINGER1, GUDRUNZÜHLKE3, WILHELMCLAUPEIN1
1University of Hohenheim, Inst. for Crop Production and Grassland Research, Germany
2China Agriculture University, College of Agricultural Resources and Environmental Sci- ences, China
3University of Hohenheim, Institute for Special Crop Cultivation and Crop Physiology, Germany
The North China Plain being East Asia’s largest alluvial plain is of high importance to food se- curity in China, accounting to one fifth of China’s total food production. Highly intensive agri- cultural practices during the last decades let to a dramatic degradation of arable land, severely endangering sustainability. In recent years a steady shift from cereal production systems into vegetable production systems can be observed. As most vegetables have much higher water and nutrient requirements environmental degradation caused by vegetable production is many times over that of cereal production systems.
Intercropping, the simultaneous cultivation of two or more crops on the same field is widely practised in Hebei province. Intercropping can use environmental resources more efficiently, weed and pest pressure are lowered and the risk of crop failure is reduced. Intercropping can lead to higher yields and at the same time environmental degradation can be minimised by controlling erosion and leaching of nutrients. A qualitative inquiry in Hebei province was con- ducted, interviewing researchers, administrators, consultants and farmers on occurrence, meth- ods, chances and constraints of vegetable intercropping. Semi-structured in depth interviews were used to examine where the ideas for the systems are generated, and how the dissemina- tion is taking place. More than 60 hours of recorded interviews and numerous written down interview reports had been analysed.
In most cases the intercropping systems are developed by the farmers themselves, or their ances- tors, and later are adapted by farmers inside the village and in neighbouring villages. Some sys- tems, which proved to be successful are also picked up by the local and regional state extension service and are disseminated among farmers. Transfer of the systems to other extension stations inside and outside the province was also reported. Due to its interesting features, agricultural researchers also recognise certain intercropping systems practised by farmers. However, after being examined by researchers, improved systems are not redistributed to extensionists and farmers. Extensionists claim that “researchers don’t know about farmers’ problems” and that
“they keep the results in their labs”. On the contrary researchers state that most extension tech- nicians lack of agricultural knowledge and “should be re-educated”.
Keywords: China, knowledge transfer, vegetable intercropping
Contact Address: Til Feike, University of Hohenheim, Inst. for Crop Production and Grassland Re- search, Steckfeldstr. 5, Stuttgart, Germany, e-mail:[email protected]
Development of Agricultural Open Educational Resources through the Use of Wikieducator
RAINERZACHMANN1, KRISHNAALLURI2, NICHOLASKIMOLO3 1Consultant International Agricultural Research, Training, Communication, Germany
2The Commonwealth of Learning (COL), Canada
3Futuristic, Kenya
A challenge for agricultural education, research and development is the availability of technical and scientific information. Open Educational Resources (OER) - similar to Free/Libre Open-Source Software (FLOSS) - are becoming increasingly attractive and important as an alternative to professional textbooks and journals, especially in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). The Commonwealth of Learning (COL) is adapting agri- cultural open educational resources (AOER) to expand agricultural education for im- proved livelihoods in SSA. COL created the WikiEducator (www.wikieducator.org) for collaborative:
• planning education projects linked with the development of free content,
• developing free content for e-learning,
• building open educational resources.
A “Wiki” is a website which anyone can use for publishing and editing online. COL’s WikiEducator uses the same free soft-ware that is used for Wikipedia. One can edit and modify content from anywhere in the world. Therefore WikiEducator is an excel- lent tool for international collaboration on free content development, such as AOER.
In June 2007, in collaboration with and at the World Agroforestry Centre (ICRAF), Nairobi, Kenya, COL conducted a workshop on AOER. The workshop was build around a toolkit (www.wikieducator.org _workshop_ toolkit) and included 23 collab- orators from 10 countries, mainly from agricultural universities. Workshop goals were to:
• let participants have hands-on experience in using the WikiEducator and prac- tice developing content,
• try out an online version of the training toolkit for fine-tuning and pilot testing.
Complementary subjects included e-learning, instructional design, learning objects, on-line learning resources, and copyright licensing options, specifically
http://creativecommons.org/ licenses/by-sa. Most workshop participants were not used to the development of educational content in an open manner. Some common fears addressed during the workshop were related to:
• loss of intellectual property rights,
• security of published content and risk of vandalisation,
• lack of motivation and incentives for producing OER materials.
Contact Address: Rainer Zachmann, Consultant International Agricultural Research, Training, Com- munication, Kapellenstr. 28, 89079 Ulm, Germany, e-mail:[email protected]
Experiences with Wiki platforms show that these fears are not substantial.
This was the first COL-initiated workshop on agricultural education and Wiki-Educa- tor in Africa. We expect that AOER and Wiki-Educator will be taken up by national, African (e.g. Forum for Agricultural Research in Africa - FARA) and international in- stitutions (e.g. Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research - CGIAR).
Keywords: Commonwealth of Learning, e-learning, ODL, open educational resources
Technology-Mediated Open and Distance Education (Tech-MODE) for Agricultural Education and Improved
Livelihoods in Sub-Saharan Africa
RAINERZACHMANN1, KRISHNAALLURI2
1Consultant International Agricultural Research, Training, Communication, Germany
2The Commonwealth of Learning (COL), Canada
Globalisation, market liberalisation and worldwide food situation are threatening food security of the developing countries, which depend on millions of small farmers. Such farmers require access to information, learning and new skills to take advantage of the emerging income-generating opportunities (e.g. meat, milk, vegetables, fruits, flow- ers). They need relevant, useful, accurate and reliable information in a timely manner for their self-directed learning. This requires new ways of developing and delivering information. Technology-mediated open and distance education (Tech-MODE) - a combination of open and distance learning (ODL) with information and communica- tion technologies (ICT) - has potential to satisfy such demands.
The Commonwealth of Learning (COL) wishes to identify opportunities for a com- plementary and catalytic role to expand the scope for Tech-MODE for agricultural education and improved livelihoods in sub-Saharan Africa. In 2007, COL undertook country case studies in eight Commonwealth countries from West, Central, East and Southern Africa: Nigeria, Ghana and Sierra Leone; Cameroon; Kenya and Uganda;
Tanzania and Zambia; respectively.
An inventory of local institutions, facilities and capabilities for Tech-MODE included:
• Country status of agriculture, horticulture and livelihood;
• National ICT policies and strategies on agriculture;
• Institutions, facilities, capabilities, government support, and potential available to implement Tech-MODE in collaboration with COL;
• Recommendations and suggestions to COL.
Conclusions and recommendations:
• Agriculture is the engine of development. Agriculture contributes from 17 (Nigeria) to 49 % (Sierra Leone) to GDP. Labor force in agriculture extends from 60 (Ghana) to 85 % (Zambia).
• National ICT policies either exist or are in process. They may include education in general, but rarely reach agriculture specifically. ODL is well recognised, but rarely with emphasis on agriculture.
• Collaborators for Tech-MODE are available mainly on formal educational lev- els. A few international partnerships are in progress.
• Recommendations for consideration by COL and interested partner organisa- tions fall into five categories: policy, infrastructure, socio-economy, capacity
Contact Address: Rainer Zachmann, Consultant International Agricultural Research, Training, Com- munication, Kapellenstr. 28, 89079 Ulm, Germany, e-mail:[email protected]
building, and collaboration. COL may assist in identifying learning needs and opportunities, establishing linkages and partnerships, facilitating proof of con- cept studies, capacity building, training, development of Tech-MODE-based learning materials and models, monitoring, and following up.
Keywords: Commonwealth of learning, country studies, e-learning, Sub-Saharan Africa, Tech-MODE, distance-learning,
Using SWAT to Evaluate Climate Change Impact on the Water Resources in the White Volta River Basin, West Africa
EMMANUELOBUOBIE1,2, BERNDDIEKKRÜGER2 1University of Bonn, Center for Development Research (ZEF), Germany
2University of Bonn, Geographical Institute, Germany
In West Africa, availability of and access to freshwater has a strong impact on pat- terns of development in both rural and urban areas. Due to extreme temporal and spatial variability in rainfall, global climate change, land degradation and population growth among others, there is a serious threat to the sustenance of freshwater and sub- sequently the livelihood of the many rural poor in West Africa. Therefore, wise and effective management of freshwater sources in a river basin is necessary.
The GIS based, semi-distributed Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model was applied to the White Volta River Basin to quantify the basin’s water yield and to evaluate the impact of climate change on water availability. The White Volta basin is a major sub catchment of the Volta River Basin located in West Africa. The major riparian countries are Burkina Faso and Ghana. The main channel of the river has a total length of 1,140 km and drains a total land area of about 106,000 km2. The model was successfully setup, calibrated and validated using daily observed streamflow time serie data for the period 1980–1999 with the first 6 years (1980-1985) used as warm- up period. The results showed that SWAT was very well able to mimic the hydrology of the White Volta basin. The streamflow, surface runoff and base flow were all well reproduced by SWAT.
To evaluate the impact of climate change on water resources in the White Volta basin, the calibrated SWAT model was used to simulate the future water resources based on the future climat series of the regional climate model MM5.This model has been adapted to station-specific climate data using the weather generator LARS-WG. Com- pared to the simulated present (1990-2000), the results of the simulated future water resources (2030-2039) show important increases in the annual streamflow, surface runoff and the baseflow.
Keywords: Base flow, climate change, modelling, streamflow, surface runoff, SWAT, White Volta river basin
Contact Address: Emmanuel Obuobie, University of Bonn, Center for Development Research (ZEF), Walter-Flex-Str. 3, 53113 Bonn, Germany, e-mail:[email protected]
Approaches to Modelling Vulnerability to Poverty in Rural Households in Thua Thien Hue Province, Viet Nam
MARCVÖLKER1, ERICHSCHMIDT2, HERMANNWAIBEL3 1University of Hannover, Development and Agricultural Economics, Germany
2Leibniz-University of Hannover, Environmental Economics and World Trade, Germany
3Leibniz-University of Hannover, Institute of Development and Agricultural Economics, Germany
Economic reforms have transformed Viet Nam into one of Asia’s fastest growing countries which has achieved impressive progress on cutting poverty. The success of its agricultural sector remains a key factor for maintaining this positive trend since the majority of the population still lives in the countryside. Idiosyncratic and covariate shocks pose a threat to the rural economy and can cause households to fall back or deeper into poverty. However, positive shocks like the recent price surge for food crops also offer opportunities. Modelling the reactions of rural households to shocks presents a challenge. Several steps are necessary Firstly, a good understanding of the Household’s decision-making processes, his income portfolios and his coping ca- pacity are needed. Secondly a good concept to build such models that incorporate vulnerability in the criterion function is needed. Thirdly, a good empirical data base is necessary.
This paper focuses on the third aspect, namely the collection of data and the formula- tion of respective household models which are typical for the farm household systems in Thua Thien Hue Province in Central Viet Nam. In this study primary data from 718 households were collected. Results of a descriptive analysis indicate that two groups of typical farm households can be identified: Those households who are ex- clusively engaged in own agricultural activities and those who are engaged in both own agriculture and off-farm employment. The first group accounts for a larger share of households in the mountainous areas of the province which is predominantly in- habited by ethnic minorities. Major shocks by which households were affected in a reference period of 5 years are unusually heavy rainfall, flooding and illness of house- hold members. Shock-affected households applied different coping activities such as borrowing from different sources, taking up of additional occupation and adjusting their agricultural production portfolio. A considerable share of households did noth- ing when a shock occurred. The outcome of the study points to the importance of a more profound analysis of the effect of shocks on farm households and their risk coping behaviour.
Keywords: Viet Nam, vulnerability
Contact Address: Marc Völker, University of Hannover, Development and Agricultural Economics, Hannover, Germany, e-mail:[email protected]
Climate Change Impact Assessment and Adaptation Options in Vulnerable Agro-Landscapes in East-Africa
KARENTSCHERNING1, STEFANSIEBER1, KARL-OTTOWENKEL1, KURT
CHRISTIANKERSEBAUM1, OTTFRIEDDIETRICH1, HENNINGBAUR2, JOHANNES
DIETZ2, AICHIJ. KITALYI3, FRIEDRICH-WILHELMGERSTENGARBE4 1Leibniz-Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research (ZALF e.V.), Germany
2World Agroforestry Centre (ICRAF), Kenya
3World Agroforestry Centre (ICRAF), Tanzania
4Potsdam Institute for Climate Change Research, Germany
By 2020 between 75 and 250 million people will be exposed to water stress due to climate change impacts. Coupled with expected increases in demand for food and other land based goods and services land use changes will occur, drastically threatening livelihoods of small- scale farmers. Rain fed mixed crop livestock systems of north-eastern and central Tanzania are likely to be most severely affected by these changes.
This project aims at assessing the regional impacts of climate change on agro-landscapes and environment in Tanzania (eastern Arc, Dodoma) and at designing adaptation strategies and prac- tices for small-scale agriculture. Assessments on related land use sectors as forest, hydrology, nature conservation and biodiversity are additionally considered involving local partners and counterparts.
Driven by regional climate change scenarios, integrated agro-ecosystem models (including soil water and nutrient dynamics and soil-crop-atmosphere-management interactions) are used to as- sess combined climate change and management effects on crop production, water resources and soil fertility. These agro-ecosystem models are linked closely to hydrological models, which provide necessary boundary conditions such as groundwater level and get back the input from the root zone, e.g. surface runoff, seepage, erosion and nutrient leaching.
Complementarily, stakeholders can develop options of management practices in potential future agro-landscapes based on the same regional climate change scenarios. All three sustainability dimensions (social, environmental and economic) are targeted and discussed with decisions makers on the regional level. Stakeholder scenarios will be visualised and linked to the devel- opment of good agricultural practices.
Model outputs will be used to evaluate good practices for potential future climatic conditions.
Stakeholder-based scenarios will be made compatible in an iterative process with model-based scenarios. Options for climate change adapted good practices embedded into region based scenarios of sustainable agro-landscapes are anticipated as key output of these exercises.
Rather than seeking climate-proof good practices for specific scenarios, this project will con- tribute to the development of farming systems and livelihood strategies that are robust across a range of possible future agro-landscapes. High emphasis is on the relevance for regional policy development.
Keywords: Climate change adaptation, impact assessment, land use change, modelling, sce- nario development
Contact Address: Karen Tscherning, Leibniz-Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research (ZALF e.V.), Eberswalder Str. 84, 15374 Müncheberg, Germany, e-mail:[email protected]
Economic Effects of Climate Change in the Middle Drâa Valley in Morocco
CLAUDIAHEIDECKE
University of Bonn, Institute for Food and Resource Economics, Germany
Irrigation water is essential for agriculture in the semi arid Drâa River basin in south- east Morocco. However, prolonged drought periods and effects of climate change will worsen the unreliable water supply situation in the future. Characterized by small palm tree oasis along the River Drâa, agriculture is mainly practised in form of subsis- tence farming through the cultivation of dates, cereals and fodder. Farmers have the choice of surface- and groundwater for irrigation, whereas the overuse of the later has lead to a decrease of groundwater tables and an increase of salinity rates during the last years. Implementing uncertainty in water resource management models has been an increasingly recognised tool to more realistically simulate river basin management.
In this paper a hydro-economic river basin model is extended towards a stochastic modelling approach to incorporate the uncertainty of water supply. The model is an optimisation model which maximises agricultural net revenues over all oases under two main constraints: land and water. Both water quantity and water quality are con- sidered for yield formation of seven major crops. On the basis of meteorological climate change scenarios from an interdisciplinary water research project, parameters of the water availability density function is calculated using maximum likelihood tech- niques. Based on these distributions, a random variable for water supply is introduced to simulate inflows into the system. Scenarios are simulated for one year with random reservoir inflows. Model results show that currently the probability of farmers to re- ceive revenues below the existence minimum is around ten percent but this is likely to worsen in the future when water for irrigation becomes more scarce and unreliable depending on the assumptions of the climate change scenarios. Groundwater use for irrigation is increasing when surface water becomes scarce although groundwater is assumed to be more costly than surface water.
Keywords: Mathematical programming, Morocco, uncertainty, water resources
Contact Address: Claudia Heidecke, University of Bonn, Institute for Food and Resource Economics, Nussallee 21, 53115 Bonn, Germany, e-mail:[email protected]
