Morning Brief
Daily | Nov 28 2017
IHSG (Jakarta Composite Index)
Nov 27 6,064.59
Chg -2.55pts (-0.04%)
Volume (bn shares) 97.04
Value (IDR tn) 7.17
Adv 138 Dec 217 Unc 217 Untr 107
Foreign Transaction
(IDR bn)Buy 2,296
Sell 2,050
Net Buy (Sell) 246
Top Buy NB Val. Top Sell NS Val.
BMRI 41.47 BBCA 82.89
ASII 28.32 UNTR 49.26
INDF 22.42 BBRI 37.59
BBTN 13.09 LPKR 36.43
PTBA 7.14 TLKM 35.81
LQ-45 Index
Top Gainers & LosersGainers % Losers %
SCMA 4.1% SMRA -4.3%
BUMI 2.7% INTP -4.2%
WSKT 2.4% EXCL -3.7%
HMSP 1.7% SSMS -3.4%
INDF 1.6% LPPF -3.1%
Government Bond Yield & FX
Last Chg.
Tenor: 10 year 6.5910% 0.04%
USD/IDR 13,508.00 0.03%
KRW/IDR 12.43 0.00%
Global Indexes
Index Last Chg. %
Dow Jones 23,580.78 22.79 0.10%
S&P 500 2,601.42 (1.00) -0.04%
Nasdaq 6,878.52 (10.64) -0.15%
FTSE 100 7,383.90 (25.74) -0.35%
CAC 40 5,360.09 (30.37) -0.56%
DAX 13,000.20 (59.64) -0.46%
Nikkei 22,495.99 (54.86) -0.24%
Hang Seng 29,686.19 (180.13) -0.60%
Shanghai 3,322.23 (31.59) -0.94%
KOSPI 2,507.81 (36.52) -1.44%
EIDO 27.14 (0.35) -1.27%
Commodities
Commodity Last Chg. %
Gold (USD /troy oz.) 1,294.5 6.2 0.48%
Crude Oil (USD /bbl) 58.11 (0.84) -1.42%
Coal Newcas(USD/ton) 91.55 1.00 1.10%
Gas (USD /mmbtu) 2.93 1.00 4.09%
Nickel LME (USD /MT) 11,570 (465.0) -3.86%
CPO (MYR/Ton) 2,589 (41.0) -1.56%
Indonesian Market Recap
IHSG ditutup turun kemarin di tengah tekanan terhadap saham pada sektor semen. Top Losers : Basic Industry (-2.63%), Agriculture (-0.82%), Infrastructure (-0.50%)
Today’s Outlook: Konsistensi Bank Indonesia
Untuk hari ini kami mengestimasi IHSG untuk bergerak melemah dengan support range 6025-6032 dan resistance range 6091-6099. Dari domestik sentimen negatif datang dari pelemahan rupiah untuk pertama kalinya dalam 4 hari terakhir. Hal ini dipicu oleh sinyal Bank Indonesia yang diperkirakan akan konsisten mempertahankan suku bunga daripada menurunkan suku bunga.
Apabila sinyal ini diterapkan, maka data inflasi yang terus turun tidak akan memberikan implikasi yang signifikan.
JCI Movement
JCI - one month Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg
JCI - intraday
Stocks Recommendation (details on the next page)
Trading Buy: EXCL, UNTR, BMRI
Global Market
United States
Bursa Amerika bergerak variatif kemarin di tengah rally pada sektor retailer.
Investor berekspektasi terhadap kuatnya penjualan pada momen liburan.
Europe
Bursa Eropa melemah kemarin di tengah aksi jual yang signifikan pada sektor keuangan dan teknologi.
Asia
Bursa Asia ditutup turun kemarin. Investor mencerna kebijakan otoritas China yang membatasi aliran investasi.
Company News
ROTI : Akuisisi 51% Saham Prima Boga BULL : Kantongi Kontrak USD100 Juta NRCA : Peroleh Kontrak Rp2,26 Triliun SIAP : Produksi Batubara pada Februari 2018
Domestic & Global News
Indonesia Merencanakan Royalti Progresif untuk Emas, Tembaga, Perak Penjualan Rumah di AS Melesat
Indonesia Economic Data
Monthly Indicator Last Prev.
BI 7 Day Rev Repo Rate 4.25% 4.25%
FX Reserve (USD bn) 126.55 129.40 Trd Balance (USD bn) 0.90 1.76 Exports Yoy 18.39% 15.60%
Imports Yoy 23.33% 13.13%
Inflation Yoy 3.58% 3.72%
Quarterly Indicator Last Prev.
Real GDP 5.06% 4.25%
Current Acc (USD bn) (4.34) 129.40 Govt Spending Yoy 3.46% 1.72 FDI (USD bn) 7.86 19.24%
Business Confidence 112.39 8.89%
Cons. Confidence* 120.70 123.80
Stocks Recommendation
EXCL Last = 2900
Analysis EXCL terus berhasil mengembangkan jaringan 3G dan 4G melalui penataan ulang pita frekuensi radio 2,1 GHz.
Range 2870 – 3230
Action Trading Buy. Cut Loss If Below 2870
UNTR Last = 31800
Analysis UNTR telah berhasil mendapatkan permintaan untuk produk Komatsu untuk tahun 2018 yang ditopang oleh pertumbuhan yang kuat pada sektor pertambangan.
Range 31150 – 35500
Action Trading Buy. Cut Loss If Below 31150
BMRI Last = 7425
Analysis Kinerja BMRI hingga beberapa kuartal ke depan akan lebih baik ditopang oleh lebih rendahnya biaya provisi.
Range 7350 - 7700
Action Trading buy. Cut Loss If Below 7350
Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg
Source: Bloomberg
Sector Rotation
Source: Bloomberg
Relative Rotation Graph - Last 10 Days
98 99 100 101 102 103
96 97 98 99 100 101 102 103 104 105 106
Agriculture Mining
Infrastructure Basic Ind.
Consumer
Finance Misc Ind.
Trade
Property
Lagging
Improving Leading
Weakening
Relative Valuation
Source: Bloomberg Last
Price
End of Last Year Price
YTD Change
(%)
1 Year Change
(%)
Market Cap (IDR tn)
Price / BVPS
Price / EPS (TTM)
EV/
EBITDA (TTM)
Return on Equity
(%)
EVA Spread
(%)
Dividend Yield TTM
(%)
Sales Growth Yoy (%)
EPS Growth Yoy (%)
Adjusted Beta
JCI Index 14.5 18.6 6,737.7
Finance 1,974.1
BBCA 21,300 15,500 37.4 48.2 525.2 4.1 23.5 N/A 18.9 6.5 0.9 8.6 14.4 0.9
BBRI 3,300 2,335 41.3 57.5 407.0 2.6 14.5 N/A 18.6 12.0 2.6 9.7 4.0 1.3 BMRI 7,425 5,788 28.3 46.3 346.5 2.2 20.5 N/A 10.8 2.4 1.8 6.5 (32.1) 1.3 BBNI 8,150 5,525 47.5 60.6 152.0 1.6 11.0 N/A 15.3 0.9 2.6 15.2 25.3 1.2 BDMN 5,400 3,710 45.6 64.1 51.8 1.4 16.2 N/A 8.6 0.9 1.8 (7.9) 11.5 1.3 BBTN 3,100 1,740 78.2 93.8 32.8 1.6 10.9 N/A 15.5 (1.9) 1.6 14.6 41.1 0.8 BJBR 2,400 3,390 (29.2) 58.4 23.3 2.3 21.9 N/A 10.9 (2.0) 3.7 5.6 (16.2) 0.7 BJTM 710 570 24.6 40.6 10.6 1.4 8.8 N/A 16.5 2.0 6.1 2.5 16.2 1.3
Consumer 1,475.1
HMSP 4,220 3,830 10.2 9.0 490.9 15.9 37.8 27.3 42.2 27 2.6 7.2 18.2 1.2 UNVR 50,400 38,800 29.9 25.7 384.6 59.9 56.0 38.8 107.6 91.9 1.7 9.8 9.4 1.2 GGRM 79,500 63,900 24.4 26.6 153.0 3.8 20.4 12.5 19.4 3.6 3.3 8.4 3.7 1.2 ICBP 8,675 8,575 1.2 3.9 101.2 5.4 26.5 16.9 21.4 15.9 1.8 8.6 20.0 1.5 KLBF 1,675 1,515 10.6 19.6 78.5 6.2 33.0 22.0 19.8 5.3 1.3 8.3 14.7 1.1 INDF 7,825 7,925 (1.3) 6.8 68.7 2.2 17.0 8.6 14.1 (2.5) 3.0 4.2 47.8 1.1 ROTI 1,290 1,600 (19.4) (11.3) 8.0 4.6 37.6 20.6 12.6 (0.7) 1.1 16.0 3.5 0.9
Infrastructure 796.68
TLKM 4,300 3,962 8.5 12.5 433.4 4.7 18.9 7.2 25.9 12.4 4.6 13.5 24.4 1.1 PGAS 1,770 2,700 (34.4) (32.4) 42.9 1.0 18.9 9.1 5.1 (5.4) 4.2 (4.4) (23.5) 1.2 JSMR 6,475 4,320 49.9 65.6 47.0 3.2 18.7 12.6 19.1 (4.2) 1.2 69.2 28.7 1.0 EXCL 2,900 2,310 25.5 42.2 31.0 1.4 68.9 5.7 2.1 (7.5) N/A (6.7) N/A 1.0 TBIG 6,275 4,980 26.0 11.6 28.4 20.9 30.2 14.8 55.3 (0.7) 2.4 8.5 (6.3) 0.7
Trade 732.8
UNTR 31,800 21,250 49.6 47.9 118.6 2.7 15.8 7.8 18.2 2.8 2.1 (7.7) 29.8 1.3 LPPF 11,125 15,125 (26.4) (21.9) 32.5 16.7 16.9 11.9 112.1 69.0 4.4 9.9 13.3 1.4 SCMA 2,290 2,800 (18.2) (1.7) 33.5 7.9 23.2 16.0 35.3 19.9 1.6 6.8 (1.5) 0.8 AKRA 6,600 6,000 10.0 2.3 26.4 3.6 28.0 22.2 17.8 (3.5) 2.3 (23.0) (3.0) 1.0 MNCN 1,435 1,755 (18.2) (17.3) 20.5 2.1 17.4 8.4 11.7 (0.2) 2.9 4.4 17.4 1.2 ACES 1,125 835 34.7 33.1 19.3 5.8 25.2 18.0 24.8 9.8 1.5 4.1 20.8 1.0 BMTR 590 615 (4.1) (2.5) 8.4 0.9 N/A 5.7 (0.5) (3.7) 0.8 (1.1) 194.0 1.2
Property 411.7
BSDE 1,680 1,755 (4.3) - 32.3 1.4 11.0 11.0 13.8 (4.2) 0.3 5.0 (17.0) 1.3 LPKR 615 720 (14.6) (21.2) 14.2 0.7 16.1 14.1 4.7 (7.3) 0.3 18.6 64.8 1.0 PWON 640 565 13.3 (7.9) 30.8 3.1 17.3 11.8 19.6 3.7 0.7 4.7 32.4 1.1 WSKT 2,160 2,550 (15.3) (4.8) 29.3 2.3 6.6 11.8 28.9 (2.4) 1.8 68.1 63.5 0.9 SMRA 890 1,325 (32.8) (34.6) 12.8 2.0 34.4 12.1 6.1 (1.8) 0.6 (4.0) (63.6) 1.2 CTRA 1,210 1,335 (9.4) (12.9) 22.5 1.7 22.5 15.3 8.7 (3.8) 0.4 (10.3) (33.6) 0.9 PTPP 2,660 3,810 (30.2) (28.2) 16.5 1.6 13.0 7.8 18.9 (1.9) 1.9 15.8 13.5 0.9 WIKA 1,880 2,360 (20.3) (19.3) 16.9 1.5 12.0 8.6 14.8 (0.7) 1.8 15.0 68.3 0.7 ADHI 1,985 2,080 (4.6) 8.5 7.1 1.3 17.5 10.1 7.5 (3.1) 1.3 17.8 (56.6) 0.8 ASRI 386 352 9.7 6.0 7.6 0.9 7.9 7.4 12.5 0.2 0.4 (2.4) (14.7) 1.0 APLN 240 210 14.3 2.6 4.9 0.5 6.2 5.5 9.7 2.0 0.8 0.6 (21.3) 0.8
Misc Ind. 419.2
ASII 8,525 8,275 3.0 8.9 345.1 2.9 19.1 12.5 16.1 (3.9) 2.0 (1.7) 4.8 1.3 SRIL 378 230 64.3 58.8 7.0 1.4 8.3 6.3 18.1 3.7 0.8 9.3 6.7 0.7
Basic Ind. 486.9
INTP 18,500 15,400 20.1 20.5 68.1 2.8 32.0 23.3 8.6 (5.9) 5.0 (13.7) (11.2) 1.4 SMGR 10,025 9,175 9.3 15.6 59.5 2.1 19.5 13.8 10.9 (3.4) 3.0 (3.0) 0.0 1.1 CPIN 3,020 3,090 (2.3) (9.0) 49.5 3.3 29.4 11.5 11.2 0.5 1.9 27.9 29.1 1.1 WTON 600 825 (27.3) (25.5) 5.2 2.0 17.4 10.0 12.7 1.5 1.6 31.3 56.7 0.7
Mining 333.0
ADRO 1,695 1,695 - 0.9 54.2 1.2 8.0 3.7 15.3 6.5 2.5 (6.0) 119.3 1.2 INCO 2,900 2,820 2.8 (17.1) 28.8 1.2 N/A 17.3 (0.6) (11.2) N/A (26.0) N/A 1.4 PTBA 10,900 12,500 (12.8) (5.6) 25.1 1.8 6.3 4.1 32.2 13.4 2.6 2.4 1.2 1.3 ANTM 655 895 (26.8) (33.5) 15.7 0.9 N/A 14.5 (1.7) (6.8) N/A (13.5) N/A 0.9 ITMG 19,800 16,875 17.3 25.3 22.4 1.6 6.9 2.7 25.1 16.0 12.3 (14.0) 100.0 0.8
Agriculture 108.1
AALI 14,300 16,775 (14.8) (15.1) 27.5 1.6 12.1 6.9 13.4 6.7 3.6 8.1 203.2 0.6 SSMS 1,440 1,400 2.9 8.7 13.7 3.8 18.2 11.7 22.5 1.8 1.3 14.8 9.2 0.7 LSIP 1,405 1,740 (19.3) (20.8) 9.6 1.2 10.0 5.2 12.5 1.3 2.5 (8.2) (4.4) 0.8
Company News
Domestic & Global News
Indonesia Merencanakan Royalti Progresif untuk Emas, Tembaga, Perak
Pada Senin, 27/11, Bambang Susigit, Direktur Mineral pada Kementerian Sumber Daya Energi dan Mineral mengatakan kepada reporter bahwa pemerintah merencanakan pembayaran royalti progresif untuk emas, tembaga, and perak ketika harga melampaui level tertentu. Produsen emas saat ini membayar royalti sebesar 3,75%. Di sistem baru, perusahaan harus membayar royalti tambahan sebesar 0,25% untuk setiap USD100 kenaikan harga mulai dari USD1.300/ons. Sistem yang sama akan dikenakan untuk tembaga dan perak. (Bloomberg)
Penjualan Rumah di AS Melesat
Pada Oktober, Penjualan rumah untuk keluarga baru di AS melesat dan mencapai peringkat tertinggi selama 10 tahun di tengah kuatnya permintaan atas rumah di AS. Pada Senin, 27/11, Departemen Perdagangan mengatakan bahwa penjualan rumah naik 6,2% menjadi 685.000 unit pada akhir bulan. Kenaikan tersebut merupakan peringkat tertinggi sejak Oktober 2007. (CNBC)
ROTI : Akuisisi 51% Saham Prima Boga
PT Nippon Indosari Corpindo Tbk (ROTI) bersiap mengakuisisi 51% saham PT Prima Top Boga (PTB), perusahaan yang bergerak dalam produk industri adonan beku roti dan kue. Akusisi dijadwalkan selesai sebelum 31 Desember 2017. (Investor Daily)
BULL : Kantongi Kontrak USD100 Juta
Emiten pelayaran, PT Buana Listya Tama Tbk. (BULL) telah mengantongi kontrak senilai US$100 juta hingga saat ini.
Rata-rata sewa sepanjang 2 tahun. Jumlah kapal yang dimiliki saat ini sebanyak 16 kapal. Adapun, tingkat utilisasi sudah mencapai 100%, dengan kontrak sebanyak 60% dari Pertamina. (Bisnis Indonesia)
NRCA : Peroleh Kontrak Rp2,26 Triliun
PT Nusa Raya Cipta Tbk. (NRCA) mengantongi kontrak baru Rp2,26 triliun sampai akhir Oktober 2017 atau sekitar 68,5% dari target Rp3,3 triliun sepanjang tahun. Sebagai perbandingan, pada tahun-tahun sebelumnya, NRCA membukukan kontrak baru Rp2,81 triliun pada 2016 dan Rp3,02 triliun pada 2015. (Bisnis Indonesia)
SIAP : Produksi Batubara pada Februari 2018
PT Sekawan Intipratama Tbk (SIAP) menargetkan muai memproduksi sebanyak 50 ribu ton batubara mulai Februari 2018. Produksi berasal dari tambang anak usahanya, PT Indowahana Bara Mining Coal. Dengan target dimulainya produksi tahun depan, manajemen SIAP meminta BEI untuk segera mencabut suspensi perdagangan saham. (Investor Daily)
Global Economic Calendar
Date Country Hour
Jakarta Event Period Actual Consensus Previous
Monday USA 22:00 New Home Sales Oct 685k 624k 667k
27 - Nov
Tuesday EU 16:00 M3 Money Supply YoY Oct 5.00% 5.10%
28 - Nov GER 19:00 GfK Consumer Confidence Dec 10.7 10.7
USA 20:30 Wholesale Inventories MoM Oct P 0.40% 0.30%
USA 21:00 FHFA House Price Index MoM Sep 0.50% 0.70%
USA 22:00 Conf. Board Consumer Confidence Nov 123.5 125.9
UK 12/03 Nationwide House Px NSA YoY Nov 2.60% 2.50%
Wednesday JPN 06:50 Retail Trade YoY Oct 0.00% 2.20%
29 - Nov UK 16:30 Mortgage Approvals Oct 65.3k 66.2k
EU 17:00 Consumer Confidence Nov F 0.1 0.1
USA 19:00 MBA Mortgage Applications 24-Nov -- 0.10%
GER 20:00 CPI YoY Nov P 1.70% 1.60%
GER 20:00 CPI EU Harmonized YoY Nov P 1.80% 1.50%
USA 20:30 GDP Annualized QoQ 3Q S 3.20% 3.00%
Thursday JPN 06:50 Industrial Production YoY Oct P 7.20% 2.60%
30 - Nov CHN 08:00 Manufacturing PMI Nov 51.5 51.6
CHN 08:00 Non-manufacturing PMI Nov -- 54.3
GER 15:55 Unemployment Change (000's) Nov -10k -11k
EU 17:00 Unemployment Rate Oct 8.90% 8.90%
EU 17:00 CPI Estimate YoY Nov 1.60% 1.40%
USA 20:30 Initial Jobless Claims 25-Nov -- 239k
USA 20:30 Personal Income Oct 0.30% 0.40%
USA 20:30 Personal Spending Oct 0.20% 1.00%
Friday JPN 06:30 Jobless Rate Oct 2.80% 2.80%
01 - Dec JPN 06:30 Natl CPI YoY Oct 0.20% 0.70%
JPN 06:30 Tokyo CPI Ex-Fresh Food YoY Nov 0.60% 0.60%
JPN 06:50 Capital Spending YoY 3Q 3.20% 1.50%
JPN 07:30 Nikkei Japan PMI Mfg Nov F -- 53.8
CHN 08:45 Caixin China PMI Mfg Nov 51 51
GER 15:55 Markit/BME Germany Manufacturing PMI Nov F 62.5 62.5
EU 16:00 Markit Eurozone Manufacturing PMI Nov F 60 60
UK 16:30 Markit UK PMI Manufacturing SA Nov 56.5 56.3
USA 21:45 Markit US Manufacturing PMI Nov F -- --
USA 22:00 ISM Manufacturing Nov 58.3 58.7
USA 22:00 Construction Spending MoM Oct 0.50% 0.30%
Domestic Economic Calendar
Date Hour
Jakarta Event Period Actual Consensus Prev.
Friday 07:30 Nikkei Indonesia PMI Mfg Nov -- 50.1
01 - Dec Tentative Money Supply M2 YoY Oct -- 10.90%
Tentative Money Supply M1 YoY Oct -- 15.80%
Source: Bloomberg
Source: Bloomberg
Corporate Calendar
Date Event Company
Monday Annual & Extraordinary Shareholder Meeting BULL
27 - Nov Cum Interim Dividend Date TOTO (IDR5 per share)
Tuesday Extraordinary Shareholder Meeting ASII
28 - Nov Cum Interim Dividend Date BBCA (IDR80 per share)
Cum Interim Dividend Date BFIN (IDR23 per share)
Wednesday Extraordinary Shareholder Meeting FASW, BSWD, ANTM, TINS, PTBA, BPFI 29 - Nov
Thursday IPO Listing WEGE
30 - Nov Extraordinary Shareholder Meeting BBYB, EPMT, SRAJ, INVS, BRNA, BAYU
Source: Bloomberg
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