The Journal
12 November 2018
IDX to implement free-float methodology starting Feb-19. Last
week, the IDX gathered several domestic asset managements and published slides regarding its plan to replace the weighting methodology for IDX30 and LQ45 from market cap weighted to free
-float adjusted. Meanwhile, JII’s and JCI’s weighting will not be changed. At the interim, here are our view regarding the changes and implications:
Changes:
Currently IDX30, LQ45, JII, and JCI are weighted using the market cap mechanism. Starting from Feb-19, the IDX plans to switch the
weighting method for IDX30 and LQ45 to free-float adjusted
weight. The rationales behind that are: 1) better representative of market condition as it opts out the majority shareholder’s portion, 2) increases portfolio efficiency as it reduces the weight of companies with relatively lower free-float portion, 3) incentivizes
companies to increase the free-float portion, and 4) it is commonly
used in other equity indices. To note, at the time of evaluation, the maximum weight limit of a single equity is set at 15%; this only affects BBCA which accounts for 17.5% in IDX30 and 16.7% in LQ45. We await for further confirmation regarding the weight limit and how it translates to other constituents’ weighting.
As of 25 Oct 2018, the free-float portions of IDX30 and LQ45 stood
at ~40%, while JII’s and JCI’s portion are well below 30%. This implies that equities outside the IDX30 and LQ45 are much less liquid compared to the IDX30 and LQ45 constituents.
𝐼𝑛𝑑𝑒𝑥
=
(
𝑀𝑎𝑟𝑘𝑒𝑡
𝐶𝑎𝑝
𝑖×
𝑅𝑎𝑠𝑖𝑜
𝐹𝑟𝑒𝑒
𝐹𝑙𝑜𝑎𝑡
𝑖)
𝑛𝑖=1
𝐵𝑎𝑠𝑒
𝑀𝑎𝑟𝑘𝑒𝑡
𝐶𝑎𝑝
× 100
Research Team
+62 21 392 5550 ext. 611
[email protected]
27.5% 27.0%
39.7% 41.0%
JCI ISSI LQ45 IDX30
Percentage of Free-float to Total Shares
2
Coal Mining Sector | 23 January 2018
Renewal package over starterpack. We believe the new competition landscape would be focusing more on renewal package/reload package as operators would likely to focus more on expansion and quality improvement since the focus would not be in acquisition anymore. Based on the information from investor relation of TLKM, currently government is working on a new regulation to set guidance on tariff gap between starterpacks and reload packages with price of reload packages must be lower than starter packs to encourage sustainable cus-tomer shift to reload/renewal packag-es. Doing so would help prevent the industry from returning to starterpack -heavy sales model lead to a lower churn rates and achieve the efficiency objectives as set by the existing pre-paid SIM card registration policy. Potential surge in data pricing on welcoming festive season. After the recent price wars caused by the SIM card regulation, we expect there will be an increase in data pricing considering that the price wars is beginning to subside and the implementation of SIM regulation would reduce the potential price war in the
future. Furthermore, based on our meeting with Telkomsel Investor Relation, there is an indication that
101,094 105,792
24,280
40,304
50,687
56,483 61,357
64,375
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 1Q18
BTS on air
TLKM EXCL ISAT
Source:
2
Houseware
-
WOOD | 19 September 2018
Implications:
While we believe the changes will be good to the market as it leads to lower index volatility, there are few things that we believe the market needs to be aware of.
Companies with big market capitalization but small free-float
portion will be put at a disadvantage (HMSP, UNVR, ICBP, GGRM) as we expect continuous capital outflow from active-managed fund
until the evaluation date. At the time of the adjustment, indexing fund will flee from these stocks until they reach the corresponding weight while active-managed fund may enter these stocks in the
interim as their position in these stocks will be minimal at this point. Hence, we advise investors to be cautious until the transition completes.
While for conventional or active-managed funds stock picking is
open-end, many mutual funds tend to maintain the stock weighting
2
The Journal | 12 November 2018
4.5%Basic Industry & Chemicals
Miscellaneous Industry
Consumer Goods Industry
Property, RE & Bld. Construction
Infras., Utilities % Transportation
Finance
Trade, Services & Investment
IDX30FF IDX30
Basic Industry & Chemicals
Miscellaneous Industry
Consumer Goods Industry
Property, RE & Bld. Construction
Infras., Utilities % Transportation
Finance
Trade, Services & Investment
LQ45FF LQ45 IDX 30 Weighting Changes Per Sector
Source: IDX, Sinarmas Investment Research
LQ45 Weighting Changes Per Sector
Renewal package over starterpack. We believe the new competition landscape would be focusing more on renewal package/reload package as
operators would likely to focus more on expansion and quality improvement since the focus would not be in
64%
16%
20%
2017 Revenue Share(%)
Telkomsel
XL Axiata
Indosat Ooredoo
66%
17%
17%
1Q18 Revenue Share(%)
Telkomsel
XL Axiata
Indosat Ooredoo
69,830
85,398
103,294
129,044
160,724
167,617
44,946
52,012
58,879
84,484
101,094 105,792
24,280
40,304
50,687
56,483 61,357
64,375
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 1Q18
BTS on air
TLKM EXCL ISAT
Source:
relatively close to the index. Given that some stocks will weigh above 10%, a maximum limit for a single stock for conventional funds, there will be a greater return divergence between index funds and conventional funds.
We view that indexes with free-float adjusted weight tend to be less
volatile compared to indexes with market cap weight. For instance, post evaluation, HMSP’s weight in IDX30 will be around ~2.3% while weight in JCI will be ~6.9%. Given the 7.5% free-float,
dictation towards JCI will be bigger than IDX30.
Lastly, we view big market capitalization companies with high free
-float portion will be mandatory to both conventional and indexing funds as fund managers try to minimize alpha and keep it close to the index. Hence, the free-float adjustment will be phenomenal for
stocks with free-float adjusted weight of above 10%
IDX 30 Weighting Adjustment Per Sector
Source: Bloomberg, KSEI, Sinarmas Investment Research
Mutual Fund Pension
Fund Insurance Others
HMSP IJ 433.9 11.1% 32.5 2.3% -8.8% 38.1% 8.4% 23.3% 30.3%
UNVR IJ 329.8 8.4% 49.5 3.5% -4.9% 29.5% 19.6% 19.2% 17.3%
ICBP IJ 104.1 2.7% 20.3 1.4% -1.2% 23.6% 21.3% 16.8% 16.1%
GGRM IJ 139.1 3.6% 33.1 2.4% -1.2% 41.7% 9.2% 15.8% 17.3%
BRPT IJ 33.4 0.9% 7.1 0.5% -0.3% 7.1% 1.0% 6.8% 60.9%
JSMR IJ 30.1 0.8% 7.4 0.5% -0.2% 20.2% 29.9% 19.5% 23.8%
PTBA IJ 49.0 1.3% 15.7 1.1% -0.1% 22.2% 14.1% 13.8% 27.3%
MEDC IJ 14.6 0.4% 3.9 0.3% -0.1% 6.9% 1.8% 2.8% 21.9%
WSKT IJ 19.5 0.5% 6.6 0.5% 0.0% 17.1% 22.9% 10.2% 36.9%
ANTM IJ 16.3 0.4% 5.7 0.4% 0.0% 23.2% 10.4% 23.9% 43.2%
SRIL IJ 7.4 0.2% 3.0 0.2% 0.0% 3.0% 1.4% 1.2% 30.2%
WSBP IJ 8.4 0.2% 3.4 0.2% 0.0% 10.8% 10.0% 9.5% 57.2%
BSDE IJ 21.2 0.5% 8.4 0.6% 0.1% 8.0% 8.6% 4.7% 18.2%
BBTN IJ 22.5 0.6% 9.0 0.6% 0.1% 27.5% 17.9% 13.8% 25.3%
PTPP IJ 8.2 0.2% 4.0 0.3% 0.1% 25.1% 8.0% 8.3% 21.2%
PGAS IJ 53.8 1.4% 23.2 1.6% 0.3% 22.2% 14.1% 13.8% 27.3%
ADRO IJ 52.8 1.3% 23.0 1.6% 0.3% 9.2% 5.7% 4.1% 33.7%
KLBF IJ 64.2 1.6% 27.6 2.0% 0.3% 13.0% 6.3% 3.1% 20.4%
UNTR IJ 125.0 3.2% 50.6 3.6% 0.4% 30.1% 16.8% 11.2% 18.0%
LPPF IJ 14.2 0.4% 11.9 0.8% 0.5% 33.2% 9.0% 4.4% 16.5%
SMGR IJ 53.4 1.4% 26.2 1.9% 0.5% 32.1% 20.5% 9.1% 17.4%
BBNI IJ 136.6 3.5% 56.2 4.0% 0.5% 28.7% 18.7% 11.3% 18.7%
INDF IJ 52.5 1.3% 26.2 1.9% 0.5% 18.7% 17.9% 16.5% 19.4%
INKP IJ 69.6 1.8% 32.9 2.3% 0.6% 14.4% 5.5% 13.4% 23.0%
INTP IJ 63.7 1.6% 31.2 2.2% 0.6% 14.0% 6.4% 2.7% 15.3%
BMRI IJ 319.7 8.2% 127.8 9.1% 0.9% 37.6% 16.3% 7.7% 17.5%
BBRI IJ 388.5 9.9% 166.5 11.8% 1.9% 34.5% 15.5% 7.7% 18.2%
BBCA IJ 583.1 14.9% 251.1 17.9% 3.0% 36.6% 12.4% 5.7% 22.3%
ASII IJ 319.8 8.2% 159.4 11.3% 3.2% 35.4% 19.5% 9.3% 18.1%
TLKM IJ 381.4 9.7% 182.7 13.0% 3.3% 27.4% 16.4% 10.6% 16.7%
Ownership as a % of Free-float
Adjustment IDX 30
Mkt Cap Full (in IDR
Tn)
Weight Full FF Mkt Cap
4
Coal Mining Sector | 23 January 2018
64%
16%
20%
2017 Revenue Share(%)
Telkomsel
XL Axiata
Indosat Ooredoo
66%
17%
17%
1Q18 Revenue Share(%)
Telkomsel
XL Axiata
Indosat Ooredoo
69,830
85,398
103,294
129,044
160,724
167,617
44,946
52,012
58,879
84,484
101,094 105,792
24,280
40,304
50,687
56,483 61,357
64,375
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 1Q18
BTS on air
TLKM EXCL ISAT
Source:
4
Houseware
-
WOOD | 19 September 2018
Mutual Fund Pension
Fund Insurance Others
HMSP IJ 433.9 10.3% 32.5 2.2% -8.1% 38.1% 8.4% 23.3% 30.3%
UNVR IJ 329.8 7.8% 49.5 3.3% -4.5% 29.5% 19.6% 19.2% 17.3%
TPIA IJ 85.8 2.0% 7.1 0.5% -1.6% 0.7% 0.1% 1.3% 21.6%
ICBP IJ 104.1 2.5% 20.3 1.4% -1.1% 23.6% 21.3% 16.8% 16.1%
GGRM IJ 139.1 3.3% 33.1 2.2% -1.1% 41.7% 9.2% 15.8% 17.3%
BRPT IJ 33.4 0.8% 7.1 0.5% -0.3% 7.1% 1.0% 6.8% 60.9%
INCO IJ 29.0 0.7% 5.9 0.4% -0.3% 22.7% 15.1% 22.4% 30.2%
JSMR IJ 30.1 0.7% 7.4 0.5% -0.2% 20.2% 29.9% 19.5% 23.8%
BJBR IJ 17.4 0.4% 4.3 0.3% -0.1% 9.3% 0.7% 24.5% 29.3%
PTBA IJ 49.0 1.2% 15.7 1.1% -0.1% 22.2% 14.1% 13.8% 27.3%
MEDC IJ 14.6 0.3% 3.9 0.3% -0.1% 6.9% 1.8% 2.8% 21.9%
SSMS IJ 12.0 0.3% 3.5 0.2% 0.0% 4.2% 1.0% 1.2% 21.5%
INDY IJ 11.7 0.3% 3.5 0.2% 0.0% 4.5% 1.3% 0.8% 32.2%
EXCL IJ 28.0 0.7% 9.4 0.6% 0.0% 34.2% 7.5% 11.2% 18.1%
ITMG IJ 28.1 0.7% 9.5 0.6% 0.0% 33.2% 11.4% 8.4% 22.7%
WSKT IJ 19.5 0.5% 6.6 0.4% 0.0% 17.1% 22.9% 10.2% 36.9%
BKSL IJ 5.2 0.1% 1.6 0.1% 0.0% 10.8% 0.6% 2.6% 65.9%
LPKR IJ 6.5 0.2% 2.2 0.2% 0.0% 4.6% 1.4% 5.5% 20.6%
ANTM IJ 16.3 0.4% 5.7 0.4% 0.0% 23.2% 10.4% 23.9% 43.2%
WIKA IJ 9.9 0.2% 3.4 0.2% 0.0% 16.5% 17.6% 19.9% 45.0%
ELSA IJ 2.7 0.1% 1.2 0.1% 0.0% 14.0% 32.1% 7.7% 45.5%
SRIL IJ 7.4 0.2% 3.0 0.2% 0.0% 3.0% 1.4% 1.2% 30.2%
MNCN IJ 11.1 0.3% 4.3 0.3% 0.0% 11.4% 2.8% 1.0% 16.7%
WSBP IJ 8.4 0.2% 3.4 0.2% 0.0% 10.8% 10.0% 9.5% 57.2%
ADHI IJ 4.0 0.1% 2.0 0.1% 0.0% 37.4% 8.0% 12.1% 43.4%
AKRA IJ 13.9 0.3% 5.7 0.4% 0.1% 40.7% 6.3% 3.6% 24.2%
SCMA IJ 23.0 0.5% 9.0 0.6% 0.1% 26.3% 21.2% 7.0% 33.1%
BSDE IJ 21.2 0.5% 8.4 0.6% 0.1% 8.0% 8.6% 4.7% 18.2%
BBTN IJ 22.5 0.5% 9.0 0.6% 0.1% 27.5% 17.9% 13.8% 25.3%
PTPP IJ 8.2 0.2% 4.0 0.3% 0.1% 25.1% 8.0% 8.3% 21.2%
PGAS IJ 53.8 1.3% 23.2 1.6% 0.3% 22.2% 14.1% 13.8% 27.3%
ADRO IJ 52.8 1.3% 23.0 1.6% 0.3% 9.2% 5.7% 4.1% 33.7%
KLBF IJ 64.2 1.5% 27.6 1.9% 0.3% 13.0% 6.3% 3.1% 20.4%
UNTR IJ 125.0 3.0% 50.6 3.4% 0.4% 30.1% 16.8% 11.2% 18.0%
LPPF IJ 14.2 0.3% 11.9 0.8% 0.5% 33.2% 9.0% 4.4% 16.5%
SMGR IJ 53.4 1.3% 26.2 1.8% 0.5% 32.1% 20.5% 9.1% 17.4%
INDF IJ 52.5 1.2% 26.2 1.8% 0.5% 18.7% 17.9% 16.5% 19.4%
BBNI IJ 136.6 3.2% 56.2 3.8% 0.6% 28.7% 18.7% 11.3% 18.7%
INKP IJ 69.6 1.7% 32.9 2.2% 0.6% 14.4% 5.5% 13.4% 23.0%
INTP IJ 63.7 1.5% 31.2 2.1% 0.6% 14.0% 6.4% 2.7% 15.3%
BMRI IJ 319.7 7.6% 127.8 8.6% 1.0% 37.6% 16.3% 7.7% 17.5%
BBRI IJ 388.5 9.2% 166.5 11.3% 2.0% 34.5% 15.5% 7.7% 18.2%
BBCA IJ 583.1 13.9% 251.1 17.0% 3.1% 36.6% 12.4% 5.7% 22.3%
ASII IJ 319.8 7.6% 159.4 10.8% 3.2% 35.4% 19.5% 9.3% 18.1%
TLKM IJ 381.4 9.1% 182.7 12.4% 3.3% 27.4% 16.4% 10.6% 16.7%
Adjustment
Ownership as a % of Free-float
LQ 45
Mkt Cap Full (in IDR
Tn)
Weight Full FF Mkt Cap
(in IDR Tn) FF Weight
LQ45 Weighting Adjustment Per Sector
Source: Bloomberg, KSEI, Sinarmas Investment Research
Renewal package over starterpack. We believe the new competition landscape would be focusing more on renewal package/reload package as operators would likely to focus more on expansion and quality improvement since the focus would not be in acquisition anymore. Based on the information from investor relation of TLKM, currently government is working on a new regulation to set guidance on tariff gap between starterpacks and reload packages with price of reload packages must be lower than starter packs to encourage sustainable cus-tomer shift to reload/renewal packag-es. Doing so would help prevent the industry from returning to starterpack -heavy sales model lead to a lower churn rates and achieve the efficiency objectives as set by the existing pre-paid SIM card registration policy. Potential surge in data pricing on welcoming festive season. After the recent price wars caused by the SIM card regulation, we expect there will be an increase in data pricing considering that the price wars is beginning to subside and the implementation of SIM regulation would reduce the potential price war in the
future. Furthermore, based on our meeting with Telkomsel Investor Relation, there is an indication that
101,094 105,792
24,280
40,304
50,687
56,483 61,357
64,375
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 1Q18
BTS on air
TLKM EXCL ISAT
Source: Widening current account deficit (CAD) in 3Q18. Bank Indonesia
(BI) released Indonesia’s 3Q18 CAD which reached US$ 8.8bn or goods side, from a surplus of US$ 0.3bn in 2Q18. This was mainly on higher deficit in oil and gas (migas) section, as oil import reached US$ 7.3bn, up by 12.1% QoQ deriving from higher volume and oil price (US$ 76.6/barrel vs US$ 73.2/barrel in 2Q18). Meanwhile, current account deficit from services was posted at US$ 2.2bn vs US$ 1.9bn in 2Q18. High CAD figures normally lift up risk level, which means more capital outflow. However, recent strong money flow to bonds could strengthen Rupiah and minimize currency volatility. Furthermore, we expect CAD to improve on the back of better trade balance and lower oil price. The import tax adjustment implemented in early Sept’18 should better reflect in moderate import growth in the upcoming quarters, while the recently gradual oil price decline should also pull down the deficit in oil and gas section.
Expecting a correction in Indonesian bonds. For the past two weeks, Indonesia’s bond market has rallied. Yield on the nation’s 10
-year bonds dropped to the lowest level at 7.99% on 8 November 2018 (-70 bps from its 26 October 2018 high). The rally was mainly driven
by the Rupiah strengthening (+3.5% in the past 2-weeks), limited Q4
bonds supply, and attractive real yield compared to other EM peers. This results in a net buy of IDR 15.6tn since 26 October 2018 from foreign investors, which led to a total of IDR 878.7tn foreign outstanding ownership in ID Government bonds (second highest compared to position of IDR 880tn in Jan-18). From the supply-side,
the government only needs to issue new bonds amounting to ~IDR 15tn to achieve this year’s target as it has already completed 91% of target issuance (IDR 368tn of IDR 383tn target). Therefore, the market expects 1-2 bond auctions left until end of year 2018. However, going
forward we expect a short-term correction in the domestic bond market
as the spread between US Treasury-yield and ID Government bonds
-yield has moved below its 8-years average (503 bps), which has
lessened the attractiveness of our bonds. In addition to that, we view
-5.00%
1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 4Q17 1Q18 2Q18 3Q18
Current Account Deficit (USD Bn) CAD to GDP Widening CAD in 3Q18
6
Coal Mining Sector | 23 January 2018
Renewal package over starterpack. We believe the new competition
101,094 105,792
24,280
40,304
50,687
56,483 61,357
64,375
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 1Q18
BTS on air
TLKM EXCL ISAT
Source:
that the forecasted FFR hike in December will attribute to stronger DXY and higher US Treasury-yield, thus leading to more pressure towards
our currency
.
Midterm election conclusion. As the midterm election came to a close, Democrats took control of the House of Representative (HoR) and Republicans kept the Senate. This outcome translates to Democrats being able to block proposed legislation before it can reach the Senate and exposes Trump to the possibility of an impeachment, despite the unlikelihood of the Republican-controlled Senate voting for
it.
What’s in store for the Rupiah? The Democrat-ruled HoR sets the
stage for potentially no new tax cuts, which in turn will lower growth expectation. This leads to potentially lesser than previously forecasted rate hikes by the Fed, which was previously stated at 1 more in 2018, 3 in 2019, and 1 in 2020. Thus, a certain degree of pressure on Rupiah has been alleviated in the near term as the dollar weakens.
100
Yield Spread Average -1Std +1Std
ID 10Y vs US 10Y
Source: Bloomberg, Sinarmas Investment Research
Foreign Ownership in Indonesia Bonds Market
Source: Bloomberg, Sinarmas Investment Research
Renewal package over starterpack. We believe the new competition landscape would be focusing more on renewal package/reload package as operators would likely to focus more on expansion and quality improvement since the focus would not be in acquisition anymore. Based on the information from investor relation of TLKM, currently government is working on a new regulation to set guidance on tariff gap between starterpacks and reload packages with price of reload
packages must be lower than starter packs to encourage sustainable cus-tomer shift to reload/renewal packag-es. Doing so would help prevent the industry from returning to starterpack -heavy sales model lead to a lower churn rates and achieve the efficiency objectives as set by the existing
pre-paid SIM card registration policy. Potential surge in data pricing on welcoming festive season. After the
64%
101,094 105,792
24,280
40,304
50,687
56,483 61,357
64,375
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 1Q18
BTS on air
TLKM EXCL ISAT
Source: All eyes on the Fed and trade war. With one source of uncertainty
out of the way, the focus now shifts to the Fed’s future rate hike decision and U.S. – China trade relations. Trump’s loss of control of the House might result in the President dialing up the pressure on China even further. It remains to be seen as to how the standstill will progress during the G20 meeting where President Trump is scheduled to meet with President Xi Jinping, which might be the tipping stone for U.S. growth outlook that affects the Fed’s rate hike decision, which ultimately either removes or add pressure to the Rupiah.
Crude oil plunge into bear market. In the past 2 weeks, crude oil has plunged by more than 10.5%, trading at just below the USD 60 per barrel mark, the lowest level since March 2018 as global supply increased and worry on fuel demand from lower economic growth and trade wars impact. Oil price peaked in October on concerns that US sanction on Iran will lead to supply shortage. However, big producers such as Saudi Arabia, Russia and U.S. have increased output steadily, more than enough to compensate the lost of Iranian barrels. The big 3 nations are currently pumping oil at a record high with combined total output of 33.5 million barrels per day. In addition, U.S. has also granted a waiver to Iran’s biggest buyer, allowing them to buy limited
14678
Jan-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 Apr-18 May-18 Jun-18 Jul-18 Aug-18 Sep-18 Oct-18 Nov-18
USDIDR USDIDR Exchange Rate
Source: Bloomberg, Sinarmas Investment Research
5.75
BI 7DRRR Fed Rate BI 7DRRR vs Fed Rate
8
Coal Mining Sector | 23 January 2018
Renewal package over starterpack. We believe the new competition landscape would be focusing more on renewal package/reload package as operators would likely to focus more on expansion and quality improvement since the focus would not be in acquisition anymore. Based on the information from investor relation of TLKM, currently government is working on a new regulation to set guidance on
tariff gap between starterpacks and reload packages with price of reload packages must be lower than starter packs to encourage sustainable cus-tomer shift to reload/renewal packag-es. Doing so would help prevent the industry from returning to starterpack -heavy sales model lead to a lower churn rates and achieve the efficiency objectives as set by the existing pre-paid SIM card registration policy. Potential surge in data pricing on welcoming festive season. After the
recent price wars caused by the SIM card regulation, we expect there will be an increase in data pricing considering that the price wars is
64%
16%
20%
2017 Revenue Share(%)
Telkomsel
XL Axiata
Indosat Ooredoo
66%
17%
17%
1Q18 Revenue Share(%)
Telkomsel
XL Axiata
Indosat Ooredoo
69,830
85,398
103,294
129,044
160,724
167,617
44,946
52,012
58,879
84,484
101,094 105,792
24,280
40,304
50,687
56,483 61,357
64,375
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 1Q18
BTS on air
TLKM EXCL ISAT
Source:
amounts of oil for at least another six months. This gave downward pressure for oil prices. In response to US waivers, local news stated that OPEC and its allies are considering to cut oil production by up to 1 million barrel per day to prevent further oil price slide. Despite no official statement has been given, this could potentially give upward pressure to oil price. We view oil price volatility will persist in the next few trading days given the lack of clarity on demand supply direction in the near term.
Source: IEA, Bloomberg, Sinarmas Investment Research
40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80
8.0 8.5 9.0 9.5 10.0 10.5 11.0 11.5 12.0
Jan-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 Apr-18 May-18 Jun-18 Jul-18 Aug-18 Sep-18 Oct-18 Nov-18 US Arab Saudi Russia Oil price
Rising oil production lead to lower price
DISCLAIMER
This report has been prepared by PT Sinarmas Sekuritas, an affiliate of Sinarmas Group.
This material is: (i) created based on information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete, and it should not be relied upon as such; (ii) for your private information, and we are not soliciting any action based upon it; (iii) not to be construed as an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security.
Opinions expressed are current opinions as of original publication date appearing on this material and the in-formation, including the opinions contained herein, is subjected to change without notice. The analysis con-tained herein is based on numerous assumptions. Different assumptions could result in materially different results. The analyst(s) responsible for the preparation of this publication may interact with trading desk per-sonnel, sales personnel and other constituencies for the purpose of gathering, integrating and interpreting market information. Research will initiate, update and cease coverage solely at the discretion of Sinarmas Re-search department. If and as applicable, Sinarmas Sekuritas’ investment banking relationships, investment banking and non-investment banking compensation and securities ownership, if any, are specified in
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