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Management Discussion & Analysis 2013

PT Toba Bara Sejahtra Tbk and Subsidiaries

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SUMMARY

The global coal prices throughout 2013 demonstrated further weakness compared to those of 2012 as they were overshadowed by factors causing supply and demand imbalance. Such imbalance included among others China‟s slowdown due to soft demand and India‟s drastic currency depreciation against the US$ on the demand side, and ongoing output growth by the major producers on the supply side. This was reflected in the performance of the yearly average NEWC Index reference price as it decreased from US$ 96.9/ton in 2012 to US$ 85.3/ton in 2013, a 12.0% year on year (y-o-y) decrease, while touching its low at US$ 78.0/ton in 3Q13.

Despite the coal industry‟s continued challenging times, PT Toba Bara Sejahtra Tbk (“the Company”) took advantage of the opportunity to enter into a period of “efficiency and consolidation” as it identified numerous ways to further streamline operational process as well as to do away with overlapping and unnecessary costs related to its three adjacent mines.

Thanks to the Company‟s three concessions located next to each other, the Company was able to maximize cost efficiency initiatives through joint mine plan and infrastructure sharing. As a tangible result of this set of initiatives, the Company successfully boosted production volume and sales volume by 16.8% to 6.5 million tons and 15.2% to 6.3 million tons y-o-y in 2013 respectively.The total production volume of 6.5 million tons in 2013 proved to be an achievement as the Company surpassed its own 2013 internal guidance of 5.8 – 6.4 million tons. In 4Q13 alone, the Company booked the highest quarterly production volume throughout its corporate history at 1.9 million tons. Given this production milestone, the Company is confident it can maintain its quarterly production run rate in the upcoming years.

Financially, the Company also successfully increased its sales by 6.3% y-o-y from 2012 to 2013. Despite a 12.0% decrease in the NEWC Index price, the Company posted a decline of only 7.8% in its average selling price (ASP) over the same period. On the cost side, the Company lowered its FOB vessel cash cost by 15.5% over the same period. Hence, a combination of stronger sales efforts through higher sales volume backed by higher quality buyers and lower overall costs resulted in a substantial 160.7% y-o-y higher EBITDA at US$ 58.6 million. This, in turn, translated to a more favorable comprehensive income of US$ 36.1 million for 2013, or up by 201.1% from the previous year.

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PRODUCTION & OPERATION

The Company‟s coal production volume grew 16.8% y-o-y from 5.6 million tons in 2012 to 6.5 million tons in 2013 on the back of significantly higher volume contributions from TMU and IM. The production volume of 6.5 million tons in 2013 derived from all three operating subsidiaries with the following respective contributions: 4.2 million tons from ABN, 1.4 million tons from IM, and 0.9 million tons from TMU. The Company‟s y-o-y production growth of 16.8%

was predominantly attributable to TMU‟s significant production ramp up post the earlier-than-expected completion of its hauling road connecting TMU and IM via ABN. IM and TMU, the Company‟s main volume contributors in 2013, posted production volume growth of around 40% and 200% y-o-y respectively.

Changes in Production and Stripping Ratio (SR) at ABN, IM and TMU

ABN IM TMU

In line with the strategy to lower overall costs towards preserving and maintaining better profitability margin, in 2013 the Company embarked on a series of controllable cost reduction initiatives, which included among others lowering stripping ratio (SR) and overburden dump distance (dump distance). Typically these two cost components account for around 65%-70% of FOB vessel cash cost.

The Company successfully reduced overall SR by 10.1% y-o-y from 14.9 x in 2012 to 13.4 x in 2013. On the other hand, it slashed dump distance by 14.9% y-o-y from 1,794 m in 2012 to 1,527 m in 2013.

Average Production, SR, and Dump Distance

The Company‟s ASP only decreased by 7.8% y-o-y from US$ 72.2/ton in 2012 to US$ 66.6/ton in 2013, which compared favorably with NEWC Index price that declined 12.0% over the same period. Such an improvement in ASP was the result of the Company‟s ability to capitalize on securing its coal sales based more on fixed pricing rather than index-linked at a timely manner. (When entering into a fixed-priced contract, the Company typically would secure it in the very early part of the year during a relatively higher NEWC Index price). Meanwhile, the 2013

ASP was based on the Company‟s timely predictions during 3Q12 that coal prices would trade lower and at higher volatility in 2013 than in 2012. As a result, the Company sold the majority of its 2013 sales volume to its quality buyers in advance by entering into fixed-priced contracts over the end periods of 2012. This enabled the Company to maximize its pricing structure, hence translating to a higher ASP in 2013 relative to the benchmark NEWC Index.

FINANCIALS

4Q 2012 1Q2013 2Q2013 3Q'13 4Q'13 Production volume Stripping Ratio (SR)

4Q 2012 1Q 2013 2Q 2013 3Q 2013 4Q 2013 Dump distance

Production volume (Mn ton) SR (x)

1.0

Production volume (Mn ton) SR (x)

0.3 0.9

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Financial and Operational Highlights

All figures are in million US$ unless

otherwise stated 2012 2013 Changes

Operational

Sales Volume Mn ton 5.5 6.3 15.2%

Production Volume Mn ton 5.6 6.5 16.8%

Stripping Ratio (SR) x 14.9 13.4 (10.1%)

FOB Vessel Cash Cost* US$/ton 62.5 52.8 (15.5%)

Average Selling Price (ASP) US$/ton 72.2 66.6 (7.8%)

Financial Performance

Profit (Loss) 2012 2013 Changes

Revenue US$ Mn 396.7 421.8 6.3%

Cost of Goods Sold US$ Mn 348.5 342.3 (1.8%)

Gross Profit US$ Mn 48.2 79.6 65.0%

EBITDA** US$ Mn 22.5 58.6 160.7%

Total Comprehensive Income

For the Periods US$ Mn 12.0 36.1 201.1%

Free Cash Flow*** US$ Mn (47.3) 45.6 196.4%

Capex US$ Mn 15.4 23.3 51.4%

Balance Sheet 2012 2013 Changes

Interest Bearing Debt US$ Mn 49.0 55.9 13.9%

Cash and cash Equivalents US$ Mn 36.3 63.3 74.3%

Net Debt**** US$ Mn 12.7 (7.4) (158.5%)

Total Assets US$ Mn 261.5 311.7 19.2%

Total Liabilities US$ Mn 150.6 181.2 20.3%

Total Equity US$ Mn 110.9 130.5 17.6%

Financial Ratios Changes

Gross Profit Margin % 12.2% 18.9% 55.2%

EBITDA Margin % 5.7% 13.9% 145.1%

Notes:

*FOB Vessel Cash Cost = COGS including royalty and selling expense – depreciation and amortization **EBITDA = Gross Profit – selling expenses – G&A + depreciation and amortization

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PROFIT (LOSS)

SALES

Although the weak global coal prices affected the Company‟s overall ASP by 7.8% from US$ 72.2/ton in 2012 to US$ 66.6/ton in 2013, the Company nevertheless demonstrated resilience by posting a stable 6.3% rise in revenue from US$ 396.7 million in 2012 to US$ 421.8 million in 2013 on the back of a 15.2% increase in sales volume over the same period.

COST OF GOODS SOLD

The 15.2% y-o-y expansion in sales volume from 2012 to 2013 coincided with lower cost of goods sold over the

same period, showing the Company‟s ability to significantly reduce FOB vessel cash cost from US$ 62.5/ton in 2012 to US$ 52.8/ton in 2013. Mining costs, such as overburden removal and dump distance as well as fuel, make up the major cost components. Such drastic reduction in FOB vessel cash cost was the result of the Company‟s cost efficiency initiatives of lowering SR and dump distance, hence enabling it to generate positive cash margins thereafter.

EBITDA

EBITDA surged by a hefty 160.7% y-o-y from US$ 22.5 million in 2012 to US$ 58.6 million in 2013, resulting from predominantly the Company‟s successful strategy in expanding its sales volume amidst the weaker ASP while lowering mining costs in the process. Hence, a combination of the Company‟s on-going cost efficiency initiatives and improvement in sales and marketing activity positively boosted EBITDA margin from 5.7% in 2012 to 13.9% in 2013.

COMPREHENSIVE INCOME

After subtracting tax expense of US$ 15.8 million from profit before tax for the period 2013, the Company booked total comprehensive income (before minority interest) of US$ 36.1 million, up by a stellar 201.1% from US$ 12.0 million in 2012. This income achievement of US$ 36.1 million already factored in the combined impacts of forex loss worth US$ 8.2 million and gain on settlement of pre-existing intercompany account in the amount of US$ 7.5 million.

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FREE CASH FLOW

The Company‟s free cash flow experienced a significant y-o-y improvement from 2012 to 2013. In 2013, it generated cash flow of US$ 45.6 million, a difference compared to minus US$ 47.3 million in 2012. Such an

increase was in line with the Company‟s continued improvement in performance and a more measured working capital management.

BALANCE SHEET

ASSETS

The Company‟s assets in 2013 stood at US$ 311.7 million in 2013 or up 19.2% from US$ 261.5 million as per end-December 2012. Such growth predominantly resulted from a build-up in cash and equivalents of US$ 27.0 million, inventories of US$ 4.0 million, fixed assets of US$ 15.0 million, and mining properties US$ 14.3 million.

Note: Figures are in Mn US$

LIABILITIES

Meanwhile, total liabilities rose by 20.3% y-o-y to US$ 181.2 million in 2013 from US$ 150.6 million as per 31st December 2012 and interest bearing debt expanded by 13.9% to US$ 55.9 million in 2013 from US$ 49.0 million as per end of 2012.

In 2013, the Company successfully secured a term loan from a major reputable Bank whose terms and conditions as well as lending rate were similar to those when the former secured previous loans back in 2011 during a much more favorable coal market condition than today. To date, the loans secured from banks are allocated among others for infrastructure expansion.

EQUITY

Total equity in 2013 increased 17.6% to US$ 130.5 million from US$ 110.9 million as per end-2012, and this was attributable to additional income for the period.

CAPITAL EXPENDITURE (CAPEX)

Until end of December 2013, the Company had realized total CAPEX of US$ 23.3 million, which were utilized for the construction of a new coal processing plant (CPP) at IM, a hauling road between TMU and IM (via ABN), a second underpass at ABN, and land compensation. This realized CAPEX was lower than the Company‟s initial guidance of US$ 27.0 million, mostly due to cost savings in the execution of these projects throughout the year.

36

60

40

45

63

49

43 42

47

56

Q4 2012 Q1 2013 Q2 2013 Q3 2013 Q4 2013

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MARKETING

 During 2013, the Company sold its coal to several notable Asian countries, which included China, Taiwan, India, and Vietnam. Some of the large reputable international traders and, to a lesser extent, end-users such as power generation companies make up the Company‟s main customers. 2013 was a marketing milestone for the Company as it successfully garnered a more diversified and higher quality customer base, expanded export market coverage, while maximizing its pricing mechanism through various hedging strategies. The Company also utilized its own in-house marketing team to tap into high quality end users such as in Japan without incurring any significant marketing costs.

Sales Destinations by Country

OPERATIONAL UPDATE

Initiative Achievement

IM  Construction of Coal Processing Plant (CPP) is expected to boost coal production capacity at IM from 3 million tons per annum (tpa) to 6 million tpa. This new CPP not only will

process TMU‟s coal, but also will create more cost efficiency and increase coal stockpile capacity. Overall, the Company‟s total production/infrastructure capacity is expected to expand significantly from currently 13 million tpa to 16 million tpa by end 2013

 Construction of CPP is in finalization stage

China 43%

South Korea

10%

Taiwan

19%

India

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TMU  Construction and completion of hauling connected road linkages between TMU and IM via ABN. Cost saving in the form of lower logistics costs is expected at around US$ 5-6/ton

 Earlier-than-expected completion of hauling road at TMU in 2Q13 enabled it to successfully ramp up production, achieving its highest quarterly production volume of 414,000 tons in

PT TOBA BARA SEJAHTRA TBK at a Glance

PT Toba Bara Sejahtra Tbk (“The Company”) is one of the major competitive producers of thermal coal in Indonesia. The Company has grown into a major coal producer operating 3 (three) coal mine concessions in East Kalimantan. These adjacent coal mining concessions, which are held through various operating companies, all

enjoy highly favorable mine locations, with close proximity to local river ports. The Company‟s concession areas

total approximately 7,087 hectares.

The Company currently has four operating subsidiaries, three in coal mining namely PT Adimitra Baratama Nusantara (ABN), PT Indomining (IM), PT Trisensa Mineral Utama (TMU) and one in palm oil namely PT Perkebunan Kaltim Utama I (PKU). The Company‟s ownerships in ABN, IM, TMU and PKU are 51.00%, 99.99%, 99.99% and 90.00% respectively.

On 6thJuly, 2012, the Company listed its shares at the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX) under the ticker „TOBA‟ and released as many as 210,681,000 shares or 10.5% of its paid up capital with an IPO proceed of IDR 400.3 billion.

Q1 2013 Q2 2013 Q3 2013 Q4 2013

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Loc

ations of Toba Bara’s Concessions

ABN is located in Sanga-Sanga, Kutai Kartanegara, East Kalimantan and is operated under the IUPOP permit. It started operations in September 2008. ABN covers an area reaching 2,990 hectares, and has estimated coal resources of around 156 million tons.

IM is located in Sanga-Sanga, Kutai Kartanegara, East Kalimantan and is operated under the IUPOP permit. It started operations in August 2007. IM covers 683 hectares of land, and has estimated coal resources of 37 million tons.

Meanwhile, TMU is located in Loa Janan, Muara Jawa and Sanga-Sanga, Kutai Kartanegara, East Kalimantan. With IUPOP permit, TMU started operations in October 2011. TMU covers 3,414 hectares of land, and has estimated coal resources of 43 million tons.

Altogether, the total coal resources of the Company are currently estimated at 236 million tons.

For further information, please contact: PT Toba Bara Sejahtra Tbk

Pandu P. Syahrir Corporate Secretary (Sekretaris Perusahaan) Email: corsec@tobabara.com

Iwan Sanyoto

Head of Investor Relations (Kepala Hubungan Investor)

Email: iwan.sanyoto@tobabara.com

Priambodo

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