Slide SIF322 Project Risk Management

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Information

Technology Project

Management

By

Denny Ganjar Purnama, MTI

Universitas Pembangunan Jaya

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Chapter 8

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Learning Objectives

• _{Describe the}_{project risk management planning}

framework introduced in this chapter.

• _Define_{risk identification and the causes, effects, and}

integrative nature of project risks.

• _{Describe the}_{various risk strategies}_{, such as}

insurance, avoidance, or mitigation.

• _Describe_{risk monitoring and control}_.

• _Describe_{risk evaluation}_{in terms of how the entire}

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The Baseline Project Plan

• _{Is based on:}

– _{Our understanding of the current situation} – _{The information available}

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This Leads to Uncertainty

• _Because…

– _{Estimates are really forecasts or predictions}

– _{Uncertainty is highest at the beginning of the project}

because we don’t all the information we would like to have

– _{Sometimes things happen that are out of our control}

• _{Although no one can predict the future with}

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Some Common Mistakes

• _{Benefits of risk management are not}

well-understood

– _{Just do it!}

• _{Not providing adequate time for risk}

management

– _{Should be part of the ITPM}

• _{Not identifying and assessing risk using a}

standardized approach

– _{Miss threats & opportunities}

• _{Crisis management (i.e. firefighting) is “reactive”}

– _{Risk management is “proactive”}

– _{Cheaper & less embarrassing than crisis}

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Effective and Successful Project

Risk Management Requires:

• _{Commitment by all stakeholders}

• _{Stakeholder Responsibility}

– _{each risk must have an owner}

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PMBOK® Risk Management

Processes

• _{Risk Management Planning}

• _{Risk Identification}

• _{Qualitative Risk Analysis}

• _{Quantitative Risk Analysis}

• _{Risk Response Planning}

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MIS Software

Risks

Systems Software Risks

Commercial Software Risks

Military Software Risks

Contract or Outsourced Software Risks

End-User Software Risks

Creeping User

Inadequate User Documentati

on

70 %

Excessive Paper Work

90 %

High Maintenanc

e Costs

60

Excessive Schedule

Pressure

Friction Between Contractor

& Client Personnel

50 %

Hidden

Errors 65% Low

Quality 60 %

Excessive Time to

Creeping User

Harmful Competitive

Actions

45 %

Creeping User Acceptance

Criteria Inadequate

Configurat ion Control

50

Litigation Expense

30 %

Unused or Unusable

software

45 %

Legal Ownership of Software

& Software

and Deliverab

les

20%

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PMBOK® Definitions

• _Risk

– _{An uncertain event or condition that, if it occurs, has a}

positive or negative effect on the project objectives.

• _{Risk Management}

– _{The systematic process of identifying, analyzing, and}

responding to project risk. It includes maximizing the probability and consequences of positive events and minimizing the probability and consequences of

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IT Project Risk Management

Processes

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IT Project Risk Management

Process

• _{Risk Planning}

– _{Requires a firm commitment to risk}

management from all project stakeholders

– _{Ensures adequate resources to plan for and}

manage risk

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IT Project Risk Management

Process

• _{Risk Identification}

– _{Identify potential risks that can impact the}

project

• _{Includes both threats and opportunities}

– _{Should include many of the project}

stakeholders

– _{The IT Project Risk Framework provides a}

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Tools and Technique Risk

Identification

• _{Learning cycles}

– _{Mengidentifikasi berdasarkan fakta, asumsi,}

penelitian

• _{Brainstorming}

– _{Setiap orang mengusulkan resiko yang}

mungkin terjadi

• _{Nominal Group Technique (NGT)}

– _{Mirip brainstorming, tetapi lebih terstruktur}

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Tools and Technique Risk

Identification

• _{Delphi Technique}

– _{Sekelompok ahli mengidentifikasi resiko}

• _Interviewing

– _{Mewawancara setiap stakeholder untuk}

mendapat persepsi yang berbeda

• _Checklist

– _{Membuat daftar resiko yang terjadi pada}

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Tools and Technique Risk

Identification

• _{SWOT (Strength, Weakness, Opportunity,}

Threat)

• _{Cause-effect diagram}

– _{Alat untuk memberikan pemahaman}

sebab-akibat

• _{Past Projects}

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IT Project Risk Management

Process

• _{Risk Analysis}

– _{Risk = f(Probability * Impact)}

• _{What is the probability of a particular risk occurring?} • _{What is the impact on the project if it does occur?}

• _{Risk Assessment}

– _{Focuses on prioritizing risks so that an effective}

strategy can be formulated for those risks that require a response.

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Qualitative Approach

• _{Expected value}

– _{Nilai dari project ketika resiko terjadi}

• _{Decision tree}

– _{Mempertimbangkan semua alternatif}

• _{Risk impact Table}

– _{Melakukan skoring terhadap resiko untuk}

menentukan prioritas

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Quantitative Approach

• _{Discrete Probability Distribution}

• _{Continuous Probability Distribution}

• _{PERT distribution}

• _{Triangular distribution}

• _Simulation

– _{Bisa menggunakan teknik sebelumnya namun}

secara otomasi

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IT Project Risk Management

Process

• _{Risk Strategies}

– _{Accept or ignore the risk.}

• _{Management Reserves} • _{Contingency Reserves} • _{Contingency Plans}

– _{Avoid the risk completely.}

– _{Reduce the likelihood or impact of the risk (or}

both) if the risk occurs.

– _{Transfer the risk to someone else (i.e.,}

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IT Project Risk Management

Process

• _{Risk Monitoring and Control}

– _{Tools for monitoring and controlling project}

risk

• _{Risk Audits by external people}

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IT Project Risk Management

Process

• _{Risk Response Plan should include:}

– The project risk

– The trigger which flags that the risk has occurred

– The owner of the risk (i.e., the person or group responsible for monitoring the risk and ensuring that the appropriate risk response is carried out)

– A risk response based on one of the four basic risk strategies

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IT Project Risk Management

Process

• _{Risk Evaluation}

– _{How did we do?}

– _{What can we do better next time?} – _{What lessons did we learn?}

– _{What best practices can be incorporated in}

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