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MEMPERKOKOH FONDASI PERPAJAKAN
Faisal Basri
30 Oktober 2017 priceroberts.com.au uschamber.comBagian I
The declining trend of economic growth in
the long-term, 1976-2017*
* First semester. Source: BPS-Statistics Indonesia. -15 -14 -13 -12 -11 -10 -9 -8 -7 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 2000 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 2017* GDP growth, year-on-year, percent 8 8% 7% 6% 5%Toward a lower level of equilibrium, from 6%
to 5%
* First semester. Source: BPS-Statistics Indonesia. 3 4 5 6 7 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017* 6.22 6.17 6.03 5.56 5.01 4.88 5.02 5.01 GDP growth, year-on-yer, percent 6% 5%Credit penetration in Indonesia is still very low
Source: World Bank, World Development Indicators. 46.7 53.9 59.1 59.7 76.7 108.7 121.1 128.3 144.8 173.4 179.0 194.4 Indonesia Cambodia Philippines Bangladesh India Brazil Singapore Vietnam Malaysia Thailand South Africa China Domestic credit provided by financial sector (% of GDP), 2015 39.1 41.8 43.9 52.6 63.1 67.9 111.9 125.2 129.7 149.2 151.3 153.3 Indonesia Philippines Bangladesh India Cambodia Brazil Vietnam Malaysia Singapore South Africa Thailand China Domestic credit to private sector (% of GDP), 2015
* 2003 Source: World Bank, World Development Indicators.
Indonesia: domestic credit to private sector
51.8 60.8 19.9 39.4 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 Fintech?
Degree of openness: (X + M)*/GDP
* Exports and imports of goods and services. **2015 ***1990
Source: World Bank: for population downloaded from http://databank.worldbank.org/data/reports.aspx?source=2&series=SP.POP.TOTL&country= on August 14, 2017; for exports downloaded from http://databank.worldbank.org/data/reports.aspx?source=2&series=NE.EXP.GNFS.ZS&country= on August 14, 2017; and for imports downloaded from http://databank.worldbank.org/data/reports.aspx?source=2&series=NE.IMP.GNFS.ZS&country= on August 14, 2017.
Country Population (mil.,2016) 1981 2016 1981 2016 1981 2016 China 1,378.7 7.5 19.6 7.5 17.4 15.0 37.0 India 1,324.2 5.8 19.2 8.4 20.6 14.2 39.8 United States 323.1 9.5 **12.6 9.9 **15.4 19.4 **28.0 Indonesia 261.1 29.0 19.1 24.0 18.3 53.0 37.4 Brazil 207.7 9.4 12.5 9.8 12.1 19.2 24.6 Japan 127.0 14.4 **17.6 13.7 **18.0 28.1 **35.6 Philippines 103.3 23.8 28.0 27.2 36.9 51.0 64.9 Vietnam 92.7 ***36.0 93.6 ***45.3 91.1 ***81.3 ***184.7 Germany 82.7 20.2 46.0 24.1 38.4 44.3 84.4 Thailand 68.9 23.8 68.9 30.1 54.2 53.9 123.1 United Kingdom 65.6 25.4 28.1 22.5 30.0 47.9 58.1 South Africa 55.9 28.4 30.3 30.4 30.2 58.8 60.5 Korea, Rep. 51.2 32.1 42.2 37.2 35.4 69.3 77.6 Malaysia 31.2 51.6 67.2 57.7 60.8 109.3 128.0 Netherlands 17.0 55.9 80.8 51.2 69.9 107.1 150.7 Sweden 9.9 28.7 44.4 28.1 39.8 56.8 84.2 Hongkong SAR, China 7.3 91.1 187.4 92.6 185.2 183.7 372.6 Denmark 5.7 36.1 53.1 34.9 46.2 71.0 99.3 Singapore 5.6 198.2 172.1 201.6 146.3 399.8 318.4 Exports (X) Imports (M) X + M
Indonesia: degree of openness, 1981-2016
Source: World Bank: for exports downloaded from http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NE.EXP.GNFS.ZS); and for imports downloaded from
http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NE.IMP.GNFS.ZS. Downloaded on August 14, 2017. 25. 7 23. 4 26.7 36. 6 33. 7 27. 7 23. 9 19. 1 23. 7 21. 8 25.2 31. 1 27. 5 24. 7 23. 7 18. 3 49. 4 45. 2 51. 8 67. 8 61. 2 52. 5 47. 6 37. 4 1981-85 1986-90 1991-95 1996-2000 2001-05 2006-10 2011-15 2016 Percent of GDP
Dalam 2 tahun terakhir pekerja informal meningkat
Sumber: Badan Pusat Statistik Posisi Februari, persen 2015 2016 2017 Informal 57.94 58.28 58.35 Berusaha sendiri 17.92 16.90 17.55 Berusaha dibantu buruh tidak tetap 15.55 17.41 17.09 Pekerja bebas di pertanian 4.20 4.34 4.30 Pekerja bebas di nonpertanian 5.63 5.80 4.83 Pekerja keluarga/tak dibayar 14.64 13.83 14.58 Formal 42.06 41.72 41.65 Berusaha dibantu buruh tetap 3.48 3.34 3.57 Buruh/karyawan 38.58 38.38 38.08Mayoritas penduduk Indonesia serba tak
berkecukupan
Ì LookingatEAPthroughthelensofeconomicclass
Introducing class differentiation leads to a more nuanced understanding of past trends in the region. While Figure II.A.2A shows the familiar story of the dramatic reduction of poverty in the region (from 55 to 12 percent between 2002 and 2015), Figure II.A.2B offers additional insights. In addition to the virtual elimination of extreme poverty in the region, these include the almost constant share of vulnerable individuals despite the varied events that have characterized the first 15 years of this century, and the rising wave of economic security that has swept the region.
Figure II.A.2A. The evolution of poverty in EAP, 2002–15 Figure II.A.2B. The changing structure by economic class
of EAP’s population, 2002–15
Percentage of the population Percentage of the population 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Poor Nonpoor 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Middle class Economically secure Vulnerable Moderate poor Extreme poor
J Nonpoor (PPP US$3.10 a day and over) J Poor (less than PPP US$3.10 a day) J Middle class (PPP $15 a day and over) JEconomically secure (PPP US$5.50–US$15.00 a day)
J Vulnerable (PPP US$3.10–US$5.50 a day) J Moderate poor (PPP US$1.90–US$3.10 a day)
J Extreme poor (less than PPP US$1.90 a day)
Source: EAPPoV national surveys standardized.
Note: Poverty rates where household surveys are unavailable have been estimated by interpolating and extrapolating based on GDP per capita growth and growth elasticities of poverty between the two closest available
surveys.
Figure II.A.3A. Indonesia, 2002–15 Figure II.A.3B. The Philippines, 2002–15a
Percentage of the population Percentage of the population 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008Middle class2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Economically secure Vulnerable Moderate poor Extreme poor 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Middle class Economically secure Vulnerable Moderate poor Extreme poor
J Middle class (PPP $15 a day and over) J Economically secure (PPP US$5.50–US$15.00 a day) J Middle class (PPP $15 a day and over) JEconomically secure (PPP US$5.50–US$15.00 a day)
J Vulnerable (PPP US$3.10–US$5.50 a day) J Moderate poor (PPP US$1.90–US$3.10 a day) J Vulnerable (PPP US$3.10–US$5.50 a day) J Moderate poor (PPP US$1.90–US$3.10 a day)
J Extreme poor (less than PPP US$1.90 a day) J Extreme poor (less than PPP US$1.90 a day)
Source: EAPPoV national surveys standardized.
Note: Poverty rates where household surveys are unavailable have been estimated by interpolating and extrapolating based on GDP per capita growth and growth elasticities of poverty between the two closest available
surveys. (a) Based on income rather than consumption.
II.A. RAISInG THE BAR: FRoM REDUCInG PoVERTY To FoSTERInG InCLUSIVE GRoWTH In EAP
79
BALANCING ACT
Bagian II
Higher quality spending, allocation for infrastructure
increased sharply, but not sustainable
Antara target dan realisasi
§
Selama kurun waktu 2006-2014, realisasi
penerimaan pajak DJP rata-rata 96 persen dari
target.
§
Hanya sekali di atas target, yaitu pada tahun 2008
sebesar 107 persen ketika commodity boom
mencapai puncaknya.
§
Pada dua tahun pertama pemerintahan Presiden
Joko Widodo melorot ke 82 persen. Tanpa
penerimaan dari tax amnesty, realisasi
penerimaan pajak 2016 hanya sekitar 74 persen.
Akrobat fiskal menekan laba 2 BUMN
terbesar: Pertamina dan PLN jadi korban
§
Harga BBM
• Harga BBM bersubsidi tidak dinaikkan, padahal harga minyak sudah 4 bulan berturut-turut naik. Tetapi subsidi BBM di APBN tidak naik, melainkan disembunyikan di Pertamina. • BBM satu harga sepatutnya merupakan PSO yang dicantumkan di APBN, bukan dibebankan kepada Pertamina. • Piautang Pertamina ke pemerintah terus naik§
Tarif listrik sudah 2 tahun tidak naik, sedangkan
harga energi primer merangkak naik.
Penugasan membangun infrastruktur: BUMN
“karya” jadi korban; juga beragam intervensi
§
Penugasan kepada BUMN karya mengerjakan
proyek infrastruktur. Yang paling parah: tol
sumatera dan LRT.
§
Harga gas dipatok $6 per MMBtu berdasarkan
Perpres: PGN terpuruk.
§
Bailout gaya baru: Bulog mengambil alih Gendhis
Multi Manis (perusahaan swasta murni yang
sangat bobrok) yang kreditnya di BRI macet.
Merayu investasi baru tetapi yang sudah ada
bepergian satu demi satu
§
Investasi sektor migas anjlok: eksperimen gross
split scheme.
§
Kisruh Batam
§
Tidak belajar dari slogan restoran padang: “jika
anda puas beri tahu teman, jika anda kecewa beri
tahu kami.”
§
Paket deregulasi dan perbaikan peringkat ease of
doing business serasa hambar.
Bagian III
Tax ratio decreased in the last 5 years
10.5 11.2 11.4 11.3 10.9 10.8 10.4 9.5 10.1 9.0 9.5 10.0 10.5 11.0 11.5 12.0 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2016* 2017** Tax revenue-LHS Tax ratio-RHS Rp trillion % of GDP * Without penalties from tax amnesty. ** Own estimate. Sources: Tax revenue from Ministry of Finance; GDP from BPS-Statistics Indonesia..Indonesia’s tax-to-GDP ratio is low compared
to peers
Source: World Bank, Indonesia Economic Quarterly, March 2017, p. 21.
S t a y i n g t h e c o u r s e I n d o n e s i a E c o n o m i c Q u a r t e r l y
21
March 2017 THE WORLD BANK | BANK DUNIA
Tim Reformasi is overseeing an ambitious reform agenda that, if implemented, will significantly increase the tax-to-GDP ratio
The Ministry of Finance’s new Tim Reformasi is working fast to outline a detailed roadmap for its four-year tax reform agenda.30 The reforms will be centered on three
administrative pillars and one policy pillar: organizational structure and business processes; human resources; the IT system; and tax laws and regulations. The new strategy includes a “quick-wins” list of reforms the Government intends to implement immediately in 2017, but more importantly, it sets out work on fundamental multi-year reforms, including investing in a new IT system. Additionally, on tax administration, the end of the tax amnesty program shifts attention to the question of what Government will be able to do using the newly collected data.
If the Directorate General of Taxes (DGT) is able to successfully use data
collected to improve
compliance and broaden the tax base, then there may be longer term
benefits of the tax amnesty program. On the
policy-side, reforms of the VAT and of the tax regime
governing medium, small and micro enterprises
(PP46) may be prioritized, as may be the income tax law. These proposed
reforms broadly seek to expand the taxable base, reduce exemptions, and
reduce compliance costs. If the Government is able to successfully pass through the legislative hurdles and implement positive reforms on these areas, then 2017 will
prove to be a big year for meaningful, structural reforms. With Indonesia amongst the countries in the region with one of the lowest tax-to-GDP ratios, this will be a positive development (Figure 37).
Figure 37: Indonesia’s tax-to-GDP ratio is low compared to peers
(percent of GDP)
Source: IMF; World Bank calculations
30 In addition to Tim Reformasi Perpajakan, the Ministry of Finance also established Tim Penguatan
Reformasi Kepabeanan dan Cukai (Custom and Excise Strengthening Reform Team). The work of this team is focused on one administrative and one policy pillar: organizational structure and human
resources; and custom and excise laws and regulations. Tim Penguatan Reformasi Kepabeanan dan
Cukai aims to improve custom and excise revenues and address long-standing challenges in the custom and excise reform area. (BKF, 2017)
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 2011 2012 2013 2014 percent of GDP
Industry is the largest contributor to tax
renenue
0.1 0.5 1.1 1.4 1.5 3.2 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5Agriculture Construction Trade Mining Industry Finance
Tax to GDP coefficient
Sources: Ministry of Finance and BPS-Statistics Indonesia.
2012-2016 (average)
Contribution of industry to tax renenue = 30.7%
* First semester Sources: World Bank and BPS-Statistics Indonesia 29.1 20.4 37.8 28.0 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 Manufacturing, value added (% of GDP)
Indonesia East Asia & Pacific (IDA & IBRD countries)
Manufacturing matters: the share of
manufacturing industry continued to decline
Indonesia: premature industrialization?
* Jan-Jun for GDP growth, Sep (y-oy) for inflation, and Jan-Sep for tax revenue growth. Sources: Ministry of Finance and World Bank.
Tax revenue growth is very unstable
-10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017* Inflation + growth versus tax revenue growthEconomic growth is closely linked to the
commodity boom
Mengoreksi transformasi perekonomian
§
Percepat modernisasi pertanian untuk
meningkatkan produktivitas.
§
Dorong pekerja pertanian beralih ke manufaktur
dan sektor lainnya dengan produktivitas lebih
tinggi.
§
Transisi: industrialisasi di pedesaan dengan
teknologi tepat guna.
§
Hasil dari transisi: meskipun wajib pajak
perseorangan tidak meningkat signifikan, tetapi
setidaknya PPN diharapkan naik cukup berarti.
The service sectors have dominated the
Indonesian economy: too early?
Sources: BPS-Statistics Indonesia and World Bank 55 46 41 45 54 59 Economic structure of Indonesia: tradables vs. non-tradables (% of GDP) Tradables Non-tradables 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 Economic structure of China: good-producing sectors and service sertors (% of GDP) Good-producing sectors ServicesGrowth of GDP and household consumption
during and after commodity boom
Source: BPS-Statistics Indonesia.
1 2 3 4 5 6 7
Household consumption growth GDP growth Start of commodity boom End of commodity boom G lo ba l fi n an ci al cr isi s The gap between the line of economic growth and the line of household consumption growth reflects the magnitude of the commodity boom.
Commodity prices softened during the first half of 2017
3
CHAPTER 1 GLOBAL PROSPECTS AND POLICIES
International Monetary Fund | October 2017
tightening of monetary policy over the past two years. Recovering domestic and external demand supported rebounding growth in Russia and Turkey. Internal and cross-border conflict in parts of the Middle East still weighed on economic activity, while Venezuela faced a political and humanitarian crisis amid a deepen-ing recession.
Softer Commodity Prices
The IMF’s Primary Commodities Price Index
declined by 5 percent between February and August 2017—that is, between the reference periods for the April 2017 WEO and the current report (Figure 1.3). Some of the biggest price drops were among fuels:
• Oil prices fell by 8.1 percent between
Febru-ary and August, even as the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and some non-OPEC oil exporters announced in May that they would extend oil production cuts through the
first quarter of 2018. The main drivers of lower prices were higher-than-expected US shale produc-tion and stronger-than-expected producproduc-tion recov-eries in Libya and Nigeria. In addition, exports from OPEC countries remained at relatively high levels, even with lower production. Following some strengthening in recent weeks, oil prices stood at about $50 a barrel as of late August, still lower than in the spring.
• The natural gas price index—an average for Europe, Japan, and the United States—decreased by 9.6 per-cent from February to August 2017. The decline
was mostly tied to seasonal factors and robust supply from the United States and Russia, and lower oil
prices, which some natural gas prices are indexed to. The diplomatic rift between Qatar, the world’s largest exporter of liquefied natural gas, and several other countries in the region, including Saudi Ara-bia, has not affected liquefied natural gas markets, as Qatar’s exports have continued.
• The coal price index—an average of Australian and South African prices—increased by 16.5 percent between February and August 2017. Following the end of the disruption to coal transportation in Australia caused by Cyclone Debbie in late March, coal prices declined until June. Strong demand from
Figure 1.2. Global Fixed Investment and Trade
Source: IMF staff calculations.
1Data for 2017:Q2 are based on preliminary estimates for Russia.
2Other countries include Brazil, Canada, India, Korea, Mexico, Russia, South Africa,
Taiwan, Turkey, and the United Kingdom.
Structures Other Equipment fi Residential Total
1. Contribution of Gross Fixed Capital Formation to GDP Growth1
(Percentage point contribution, year -over-year)
–6 –3 0 3 6 9 12 2015:Q1 15:Q2 15:Q3 15:Q4 16:Q1 16:Q2 16:Q3 16:Q4 17:Q1 17:Q2 United States Euro area Japan 2. Real Merchandise Imports
(Seasonally adjusted quarter-over-quarter annualized percent change)
China
Other countries2
World
Investment began to pick up in the third quarter of 2016. Global trade accelerated as well, before moderating more recently.
–0.2 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 2015:Q1 15:Q2 15:Q3 15:Q4 16:Q1 16:Q2 16:Q3 16:Q4 17:Q1 17:Q2 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 2011 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
Sources: IMF, Primary Commodity Price System; and IMF staff estimates. fi
Food
Figure 1.3. Commodity Prices
Era digital
§
Era digital mengubah berbagai aspek kehidupan:
pola produksi, pola transaksi, gaya hidup, dan
sebagainya.
§
Investor kelas kakap berdatangan, antara lain
Jack Ma.
§
Transaksi semakin marak, PPN naik, tetapi yang
diperdagangkan semakin banyak barang dan jasa
impor jika sektor produksi kita tak dibenahi,
sehingga basis pajak jangka panjang kurang
kokoh.
Prasyarat yang dibutuhkan
§
Struktur ekonomi yang kokoh bertolak dari
keunggulan komparatif unik Indonesia sebagai
negara maritim:
• Integrasi perekonomian domestik • Sektor pertanian dengan produktivitas tinggi yang ditopang oleh industrialisasi di pedesaan dengan teknologi tepat guna • Sektor manufaktur yang berdaya saing • Usaha kecil dan menengah yang tangguh§
Mengurangi ketergantungan pada komoditas.
Perlu pendekatan holistik dan konduktor piawai
§
Pajak merupakan cerminan dari dinamika dan
mekanisme perekonomian.
§
Reformasi perpajakan bertolak dari potret
ekonomi. Teknis reformasi perpajakan serahkan
kepada ahlinya.
§
Perlu konduktor handal dan piawai untuk
menyelaraskan irama seluruh pemain musik dan
penyanyi.
§
Leadership matters.
Terima Kasih
Email: faisal.basri@gmail.com Twitter: @faisalbasri
Blog: faisalbasri.com
