Target IHSG 5,406 5,443.73

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Senin, 06 Februari 2017

Target IHSG 5,406 – 5,443.73

Beberapa berita ekonomi di pekan kemarin diantaranya: 1) Federal Reverse

mempertahankan suku bunga acuannya di level 0.50% hingga 0.75% akibat

ketidakpastian atas kebijakan fiskal dan ekonomi dari pemerintahan Trump. Fed juga

tidak memberikan sinyal kapan akan menaikkan suku bunganya namun mengisyaratkan

dapat mempercepat kenaikan suku bunga bila kebijakan fiskal dari pemerintahan baru

dapat meningkatkan inflasi. 2) Ruang Bank Indonesia untuk menurunkan suku bunga

acuan akan sangat terbatas karena meningkatnya tekanan inflasi. Bank Indonesia akan

tetap mendorong kebijakan moneter di tahun lalu dengan memastikan Bank memiliki

likuiditas yang cukup untuk mencegah agar perbankan tidak perlu terburu buru

menaikkan suku bunga pinjaman. Mulai bulan Februari 2017, Bank Indonesia mengubah

skema Operasi Pasar Terbuka (OPT) dari metode lelang harga tetap (fixed-rate tender:

tingkat diskonto OPT yang digelar BI ditentukan oleh BI) menjadi lelang dengan harga

beragam (variable-rate tender: tingkat diskonto OPT yang digelar BI ditentukan oleh

peserta lelang) agar lebih cepat menangkap kondisi pasar sehingga lebih sigap menjaga

inflasi. Pemerintah juga akan menghitung kembali waktu yang tepat untuk menaikkan

sejumlah administered prices dimana di Bulan Januari telah berada di angka 0.97% dari

kenaikan tarif dasar listrik berdaya 900 VA, sehingga kemungkinan akan menunda

kenaikan tarif listrik kedua dan gas elpiji. 3) Pemerintah telah mempersiapkan program

yang akan dilaksanakan pada 2018, diantaranya menggenjot investasi agar ekonomi

dapat bertumbuh ke kisaran 8% (saat ini sekitar 5% - 6%) dan program pengentasan

kemiskinan mengarah kepada 40% penduduk berpendapatan terendah dengan

melaksanakan 10 program prioritas yang dituangkan dalam Rencana Strategis Kebijakan

Ekonomi Berkeadilan. Dan secara keseluruhan pergerakan IHSG dalam sepekan terakhir

berhasil menguat sebesar 0.90% atau 47.93 poin dan ditutup di level 5,360.77. Akumulasi

minat beli asing juga masih tercatatkan mendukung penguatan IHSG dalam dua pekan

dan tiga pekan terakhir masing masing sebesar Rp.718.56 miliar dan Rp.280.52 miliar.

Sedangkan dalam sepekan terakhir dan empat pekan terakhir masih tercatatkan

akumulasi minat jual asing masing masing sebesar Rp.13.32 miliar dan Rp.514.27 miliar.

Nilai tukar rupiah terhadap dolar AS tercatatkan flat dalam sepekan terakhir dari

Rp.13.359 menjadi Rp.13.362.

Menguatnya IHSG dalam sepekan terakhir membuat kondisi indeks saat ini berada dalam

area jenuh beli (overbought) namun masih berpeluang untuk menguji level 5,406 –

5,443.73 sebagai target sementara selama harga masih bertahan di atas level 5,347.02.

Dan pergerakan indeks dalam sepekan kedepan diperkirakan masih akan berfluktuatif

dikisaran 5,280.64 – 5,469.31 sebagai support dan resistance. Beberapa saham yang

saat ini underprice dan mendekati PE ratio terendah diantaranya APLN, ASRI, CPIN,

DILD, JSMR, KIJA, dan MNCN. Berita ekonomi domestik di pekan ini diantaranya Indeks

kepercayaan bisnis Q4 2016, pertumbuhan ekonomi 2016, indeks kepercayaan

konsumen Januari 2017, cadangan devisa Januari 2017, transaksi berjalan Q4 2016,

indeks properti Q4 2016, dan penjualan mobil dan motor Januari 2017. Sedangkan berita

ekonomi global di pekan ini diantaranya International Trade, Job Openings and Labor

Turnover Survey, EIA Petroleum Status Report, Jobless Claims, Import and Export

Prices, Consumer Sentiment, dan Treasury Budget.

Widhi Indratmo Nugroho

Analyst [email protected] +62 21 5785 1818 (Ext.2051) Close Weekly Return ▲ Yield to Date ▲ PE (X) Volume (miliar) ▼ Value (Rp. triliun) ▲ BI 7-Day RR IDR/USD Rp. 1.21% 5,360.77 COMPOSITE LAST TOTAL TRANSACTION 0.90% ECONOMIC INDICATORS 13,362 4.75% 28.24 87.19 22.18

Sumber: Lautandhana Securindo

JCI vs Foreign Net Buy (Sell) YTD

4,850 5,100 5,350 5,600 5,850

3-Jan-17 12-Jan-17 23-Jan-17 1-Feb-17 (20,000) (8,000) 4,000 16,000 28,000

Composite (LHS) Net Buy YTD in Rp.bn (RHS)

SECTOR Agriculture ▲ 0.73% ▲ 0.21% Basic Industry ▲ 0.15% ▲ 3.98% Consumer Goods ▼ -0.11% ▲ 1.16% Finance ▲ 1.28% ▲ 0.64% Infrastructure ▲ 1.40% ▲ 1.68% Manufacture ▲ 0.00% ▲ 1.66% Mining ▲ 3.06% ▲ 0.98% Misc. Industry ▲ 0.23% ▲ 0.95% Property ▲ 1.25% ▼ -0.65%

Trade & Service ▲ 1.28% ▲ 1.23% 3-Feb-16 27-Jan-16 WEEKLY RETURN

SECTOR Agriculture ▼ -0.93% ▲ 4.98% Basic Industry ▼ -0.57% ▲ 3.86% Consumer Goods ▼ -0.09% ▲ 0.71% Finance ▼ -10.44% ▼ -5.30% Infrastructure ▲ 5.52% ▲ 1.68% Manufacture ▲ 0.86% ▲ 6.91% Mining ▲ 76.13% ▲ 4.35% Misc. Industry ▼ -0.83% ▲ 0.17% Property ▲ 3.45% ▼ -61.68%

Trade & Service ▼ -1.20% ▲ 10.35% 3-Feb-16 27-Jan-16 WEEKLY CAPITAL FLOW

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PE Band IHSG

10 . 7 x 14 . 4 8 x 18 . 2 5 x 2 2 . 0 3 x 2 5 . 8 x -1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000

Dec- 03 Jul-05 Feb-07 Aug-08 Mar -10 Oct - 11 Apr- 13 Nov- 14 May- 16 Dec-17

Sector Performance 2016

J C I Agriculture Basic Ind Consumer_{M anufac} M ining Trade 5,000 5,200 5,400 5,600

3-Jan-17 9-Jan-17 13- Jan- 17 19- Jan- 17 25- Jan- 17 31- Jan- 17 6- Feb- 17 10- Feb- 17

Note: All Sectors Rebase to JCI Sumber: Lautandhana Securindo

Siklus Pergerakan Harian IHSG

J C I C y c l e Aver age +1 STDEV - 1 STDEV -1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000

Jan- 03 Sep-04 May-06 Jan-08 Sep- 09 May-11 Dec- 12 Sep- 14 Apr- 16 Dec-17

0.43 0.56 0.69 0.82 0.95 1.08 1.21 1.34 1.47 1.60 1.73

Bottom Fishing Buy on Weakness Trading Area Sell on Strength Closing 3 Februari 2017

Saat ini IHSG berada pada PE ratio

22.18x.

Krisis Global 2008

Saat ini siklus IHSG berada

diantara -1STDEV dan

average.

Closing 3 Februari 2017

Selama bulan January 2017,

secara garis besar beberapa

sector yang menjadi driver

diantaranya basic industry,

agriculture, consumer,

manufacture, trade &

service, dan mining.

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Siklus Pergerakan Harian Beberapa Saham LQ45 & Lainnya

Stock Cycle -1 STDEV Average +1 STDEV Area TP Upside Stock Cycle -1 STDEV Average +1 STDEV Area TP Upside

AALI 1.02 0.87 1.04 1.22 Trading 18,781 17.4% LSIP 1.01 0.82 1.07 1.32 Trading 1,899 20.6%

ADHI 0.86 0.83 1.18 1.52 Trading 2,505 19.3% MNCN 0.85 0.86 1.18 1.50 BoW 2,194 29.1%

ADRO 1.39 0.83 1.04 1.25 SoS 1,860 8.2% MYRX 1.08 0.92 1.08 1.24 Trading 200

-AKRA 1.07 0.92 1.13 1.34 Trading 7,592 9.6% PGAS 1.07 0.92 1.08 1.23 Trading 3,137 9.3%

ANTM 1.05 0.77 0.98 1.19 Trading 951 14.5% PPRO 1.39 -8.32 3.93 16.18 Trading 600 -52.4%

ASII 1.06 0.90 1.12 1.34 Trading 8,773 8.3% PTBA 1.17 0.83 1.03 1.23 Trading 14,355 22.2%

ASRI 0.92 0.85 1.15 1.44 Trading 426 7.1% PTPP 0.94 0.85 1.13 1.41 Trading 4,949 33.4%

BBCA 1.07 1.00 1.10 1.21 Trading 16,349 5.7% PW ON 0.93 0.87 1.12 1.37 Trading 718 24.8%

BBNI 1.13 0.90 1.14 1.38 Trading 6,512 9.0% SCMA 1.01 0.91 1.25 1.60 Trading 3,291 11.6%

BBRI 1.06 0.98 1.11 1.24 Trading 12,993 8.3% SMGR 0.96 0.96 1.11 1.26 Trading 10,129 10.1%

BBTN 1.04 0.82 0.97 1.13 Trading 2,097 10.9% SMRA 0.83 0.91 1.18 1.45 BoW 1,575 19.3%

BMRI 1.05 0.93 1.11 1.30 Trading 11,428 3.2% SRIL 0.93 -9.21 3.52 16.24 Trading 300 27.1%

BSDE 0.96 0.73 1.18 1.64 Trading 2,293 21.0% SSMS 1.01 1.00 1.12 1.24 Trading 2,000 21.2%

BUMI 3.06 0.47 0.85 1.22 SoS TLKM 0.99 0.95 1.05 1.15 Trading 4,641 17.5%

CPIN 0.92 0.82 1.28 1.73 Trading 3,610 11.8% UNTR 1.26 0.84 1.08 1.33 Trading 24,419 6.2%

ELSA 0.90 1.09 1.39 0.79 BoW 420 -2.8% UNVR 0.97 0.98 1.10 1.23 BoW 45,151 7.5%

EXCL 0.97 0.83 1.10 1.37 Trading 3,124 7.7% WIKA 0.92 0.95 1.18 1.41 BoW 3,089 24.1%

GGRM 0.93 0.89 1.18 1.48 Trading 78,449 26.9% WSKT 1.01 0.87 1.12 1.37 Trading 3,256 26.2%

HMSP 0.17 0.97 1.15 1.32 BoW 4,120 5.4%

ICBP 0.74 0.96 1.10 1.23 BoW 10,088 19.4%

INCO 1.11 0.80 1.02 1.24 Trading 2,846 2.7% CTRA 0.96 0.89 1.15 1.40 Trading 1,703 23.4%

INDF 1.01 0.86 1.11 1.37 Trading 9,884 25.5% KIJA 1.01 0.84 1.10 1.35 Trading 442 52.3%

INTP 0.92 0.91 1.12 1.32 Trading 16,067 4.5% SMCB 0.88 0.85 1.10 1.35 Trading 856 -5.4%

JSMR 0.88 0.96 1.14 1.31 BoW 5,680 33.3% GIAA 0.81 0.85 1.01 1.16 BoW 366 7.5%

KLBF 0.94 1.00 1.20 1.39 BoW 1,753 19.2% KAEF 1.11 0.90 1.18 1.47 Trading 2,543 16.7%

LPKR 0.77 0.87 1.04 1.20 BoW 1,002 37.2% SMBR 1.48 0.94 1.01 1.08 SoS 859 -60.4%

LPPF 0.85 0.02 1.54 3.07 Trading 19,227 27.1% TINS 1.23 0.79 1.01 1.23 Trading 1,186 7.8%

Note: 1. TP (Target Price) Konsensus Bloomberg 2. Cycle: Posisi harga close saham di minggu terakhir

3. Posisi Cycle yang berada dibawah (-1) standard deviation, diperkirakan mempunyai ruang koreksi yang mulai terbatas

OTHERS

Pemilihan Saham

Passive Strategy

AALI ADHI ADRO AKRA ASII ASRI BBCA BBNI BBRI BBTN BMRI BSDE CPIN CTRA ELSA GGRM ICBP INCO INDF INTP JSMR KLBF LPKR LPPF LSIP MNCN PGAS PTBA PTPP PWON SCMA SMGR SMRA SSMS TLKM UNTR UNVR WIKA WSKT KIJA SMCB BJBR BJTM KAEF _TINS APLN DILD SRIL EXCL -35% -5% 25% 55% 85% 0. 4 1. 2 2. 0

Fairly Price Line

Over Price Area (Negative Alpha)

Under Price Area (Positive Alpha)

Beberapa saham yang berada di atas

fairly price line (security market line)

mencerminkan kondisi under price.

Investor dapat melakukan posisi beli

maupun menambah proporsi

(overweight) pada saham ini.

Sedangkan beberapa saham yang

berada di bawah fairly price line

mencerminkan kondisi over price.

Investor dapat melakukan posisi jual

atau mengurangi proporsi (underweight)

pada saham ini.

Berhasilnya program tax amnesty dan

dominasi sektor konsumsi masyarakat,

diharapkan mampu untuk menjaga

kestabilan nilai tukar rupiah dan mampu

memberi pertumbuhan ekonomi

domestik di 2017 sebesar 5.1% - 5.3%,

di saat potensi penurunan pertumbuhan

ekonomi global. Sehingga kami

perkirakan IHSG masih dapat

bertumbuh dengan target dikisaran

5,604.97 serta BI 7 day reverse repo

rate tetap di 4.75%.

Sensitivity to Market Expected Return

Update 3 Februari 2017

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Saham Underprice dan mendekati PE ratio terendah

APLN PE Band

ASRI PE Band

3.6x 5.9 5x 8 .3x 10.65x 13x 100 250 400 550 700

Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16 Dec-17

7.8x 10.95x 14.1x 17.25x 20.4x 250 500 750 1,000 1,250

Sumber: Lautandhana Securindo Sumber: Lautandhana Securindo

CPIN PE Band

DILD PE Band

12.5x 18.9x 25.3x 31.7x 38.1x 1,00 0 2 ,250 3 ,50 0 4,750 6,00 0

9.5x 14.58x 19.65x 24.73x 29.8x 100 300 500 700 900

JSMR PE Band

KIJA PE Band

15.2x 20.78x 2 6.35x 31.93x 3 7.5x 3,400 4,600 5,800 7,000 8,200

8.7x 16.19x 23.67x 31.16x 38 .64x 50 150 250 350 450

Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17

MNCN PE Band

13.1x 17.35x 21.6x 25.85x 30.1x 1,000 1,750 2,500 3,250 4,000

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Support Resistance Beta Volatility Bearish Bullish AGRICULTURE

Plantation & Others

Astra Ago Lestari Tbk AALI 15,800 15,725 16,500 0.87 5.63% -5.81% Overweight 15,375 16,200

PP London Sumatra Tbk LSIP 1,600 1,590 1,695 0.69 5.21% -8.05% Overweight 1,565 1,630

Sawit Sumbermas Sarana Tbk SSMS 1,630 1,555 1,630 0.85 5.40% 16.43% Overweight 1,585 1,670

Charoen Pokphand Indonesia Tbk CPIN 3,160 3,100 3,210 1.41 5.75% 2.27% Overweight 3,020 3,290

MINING

Coal, Oil & Gas, Metal & Other Resources

Adaro Energy Tbk ADRO 1,725 1,700 1,750 1.58 7.08% 1.77% Overweight 1,640 1,805

Tambang Batu Bara Bukit Asam Tbk PTBA 10,825 10,675 11,850 1.31 6.26% -13.40% Overweight 10,375 11,250

Elnusa Tbk ELSA 442 428 472 1.20 7.62% 5.24% Underweight 426 458

Aneka Tambang (Persero) Tbk ANTM 805 795 890 0.81 6.72% -10.06% Overweight 785 825

Vale Indonesia Tbk INCO 2,340 2,230 2,430 1.05 7.82% -17.02% Overweight 2,260 2,410

BASIC INDUSTRY Cement & Others

Indocement Tunggal Perkasa Tbk. INTP 15,900 14,600 15,900 1.54 4.82% 3.25% Underweight 15,125 16,625

Semen Gresik Tbk SMGR 9,225 8,600 9,275 1.36 4.77% 0.54% Overweight 8,825 9,600

MISC.INDUSTRY Otomotif

Astra International Tbk ASII 8,100 7,950 8,150 1.42 4.76% -2.11% Overweight 7,725 8,425

Sri Rejeki Isman Tbk SRIL 238 234 254 0.82 7.30% 3.48% Overweight 232 244

CONSUMER GOODS

Foods, Cigarette, Pharmacy & Others

Indofood CBP Sukses Makmur Tbk ICBP 8,550 8,350 8,700 1.10 5.85% -0.29% Overweight 8,250 8,825

Indofood Sukses Makmur Tbk INDF 8,000 7,925 8,150 1.10 4.05% 0.95% Overweight 7,725 8,250

Unilever Indonesia Tbk UNVR 41,700 39,575 42,000 0.98 3.34% 7.47% Neutral 40,450 42,925

Gudang Garam Tbk. GGRM 62,800 62,700 63,900 0.85 4.09% -1.72% Overweight 61,175 64,425

Hanjaya Mandala Sampoerna Tbk HMSP 3,920 3,820 4,000 0.73 8.89% 2.35% Neutral 3,830 4,000

Kalbe Farma Tbk KLBF 1,480 1,450 1,515 1.14 3.81% -2.31% Overweight 1,425 1,530

PROPERTY & CONSTRUCTION

Alam Sutera Realty Tbk ASRI 388 380 406 1.51 5.79% 10.23% Overweight 370 406

Bumi Serpong Damai Tbk BSDE 1,860 1,775 1,900 1.49 4.84% 5.98% Overweight 1,770 1,940

Lippo Karawaci Tbk LPKR 720 715 735 1.23 5.33% 0.00% Overweight 690 745

Pakuwon Jati Tbk PWON 570 570 590 1.51 5.37% 0.88% Overweight 540 595

Summarecon Agung Tbk SMRA 1,365 1,315 1,410 1.55 6.03% 3.02% Overweight 1,300 1,425

Adhi Karya (Persero) Tbk ADHI 2,100 2,100 2,190 1.20 5.35% 0.96% Overweight 2,020 2,170

PP (Persero) Tbk PTPP 3,450 3,440 3,590 0.91 4.12% -9.45% Overweight 3,350 3,540

Wijaya Karya (Persero) Tbk WIKA 2,460 2,450 2,560 1.19 4.86% 4.24% Overweight 2,370 2,540

Waskita Karya (Persero) Tbk WSKT 2,570 2,520 2,620 0.95 4.13% 0.78% Overweight 2,490 2,640

INFRASTRUCTURE

Energy, Transportation & Highway, Telecommunication, Non Building Construction

Perusahaan Gas Negara (Persero) Tbk PGAS 2,800 2,580 2,800 1.18 5.15% 3.70% Overweight 2,690 2,900

Jasa Marga Tbk JSMR 4,220 4,150 4,280 1.04 3.75% -2.31% Overweight 4,080 4,350

Telekomunikasi Indonesia Tbk TLKM 3,890 3,780 3,960 0.97 2.95% -2.26% Overweight 3,770 4,000

FINANCE Bank

Bank Central Asia Tbk BBCA 15,400 14,950 15,550 1.13 3.02% -0.65% Overweight 14,850 15,925

Bank Negara Indonesia BBNI 5,750 5,450 5,800 1.41 4.37% 4.07% Overweight 5,500 5,975

Bank Rakyat Indonesia (Persero) Tbk BBRI 11,725 11,675 11,900 1.47 4.27% 0.43% Overweight 11,175 12,225

Bank Tabungan Negara (Persero) Tbk BBTN 1,925 1,860 1,930 0.92 4.21% 10.63% Overweight 1,870 1,975

Bank Mandiri (Persero) Tbk BMRI 10,975 10,900 11,050 1.40 3.90% -5.18% Underweight 10,500 11,425

TRADE & SERVICE

Investment Company & Wholesale

AKR Corporindo Tbk AKRA 6,700 6,500 6,875 0.63 4.28% 11.67% Overweight 6,525 6,825

United Tractors Tbk UNTR 22,600 21,500 22,975 1.21 5.00% 6.35% Overweight 21,750 23,425

Matahari Departement Store Tbk LPPF 14,950 14,650 15,300 1.05 4.30% -1.16% Overweight 14,450 15,425

Matahari Putra Prima Tbk MPPA 1,235 1,205 1,410 1.48 6.53% -16.55% Overweight 1,170 1,290

Media Nusantara Citra Tbk MNCN 1,730 1,690 1,765 1.26 6.25% -1.42% Overweight 1,660 1,795

Surya Citra Media Tbk SCMA 2,900 2,560 2,970 1.13 4.53% 3.57% Overweight 2,800 2,990

Global Mediacom Tbk BMTR 600 590 645 1.38 6.61% -2.44% Underweight 570 625

Hanson International Tbk MYRX 156 152 164 0.68 7.71% -7.69% Overweight 153 159

Siloam International Hospitals Tbk SILO 11,900 11,500 12,250 0.59 4.61% 9.17% Underweight 11,675 12,100

Emiten Ticker Close Weekly Indicator YTD Performance Weekly Forecast

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DISCLAMER

This report has been prepared by PT. Lautandhana Securindo on behalf of itself and its affiliated companies and is provided for information purposes only. Under no circumstances is it to be used or considered as an offer to sell, or a solicitation of any offer to buy. This report has been produced independently and the forecasts, opinions and expectations contained herein are entirely those of PT. Lautandhana Securindo.

While all reasonable care has been taken to ensure that information contained herein is not untrue or misleading at the time of publication, PT. Lautandhana Securindo makes no representation as to its accuracy or completeness and it should not be relied upon as such. This report is provided solely for the information of clients of PT. Lautandhana Securindo who are expected to make their own investment decisions without reliance on this report. Neither PT. Lautandhana Securindo nor any officer or employee of PT. Lautandhana Securindo accept any liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from any use of this report or its contents. PT. Lautandhana Securindo and/or person connected with it may have acted upon or used the information herein contained, or the research or analysis on which it is based, before publication.

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