2. Environmental Impacts Food Security

(1)

Tofael Ahamed

Associate Professor

Faculty of Life and Environmental

Sciences

Inbound Mobility Program

University of Jember, Indonesia

Integrating Environment,

Agriculture and

Sustainability for Food

Security

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Global Environmental

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Food Security

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4

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Cyclone Phalin

October 2013

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December 2013 Cairo, Egypt

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Jerusalem

December 2013

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Vietnam

December 2013

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Global Environmental Change

 Changes in the biogeophysical

environment caused or strongly infuenced by human activities

 Land cover & soils

 Atmospheric composition  Climate variability & means  Water availability & quality  Nitrogen availability & cycling  Biodiversity

 Sea currents & salinity  Sea level

(13)

Global Environmental Change

 Examples of human activities leading to GEC

 Deforestation

 Fossil fuel consumption  Urbanisation

 Land reclamation

 Agricultural intensification  Freshwater extraction

 Fisheries overexploitation  Waste production

(14)

Global GHG Emission Sources

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IPCC SRES estimates- Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

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Climate Change Impacts on Grain

Yields

Percentage change in average crop yields. Efects of CO₂ are taken into account. Crops

modelled are: wheat, maize and rice.

Cereal production

-12

Global production

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Crop Topt,

Soybean 28 39 3.41 3.41 3.06 10

Dry bean 22 32 2.87 1.39 0.00 100

Peanut 25 40 3.38 3.22 2.58 20

Grain sorghum

26 35 12.24 11.75 6.95 41

Crop Productivity: Temperature Efects

(18)

Land Use for Agriculture

 Harvested land in world increased by 24% 1961 to 2003 to 1.2 billion ha.

 Agricultural conversion to croplands and managed pastures has affected some 3.3 billion ha—roughly 26% of the land area.

 Agriculture has displaced one-third of temperate and tropical forests and one-quarter of natural grasslands.

World Resources Institute calculations, 2000;

Comprehensive Assessment of Water Management in Agriculture, 2007

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Water Use in Agriculture

 About 70% of global freshwater withdrawal

is for agriculture

 Compared to 20% for industry and 10% for

municipalities

 However, 55% of the gross value of crop

production grown under rainfed agriculture on 72% of harvested land.

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Food balance sheet 1994-96

Most Important Food Crops

Globally

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IPCC AR4 WGII

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Concept and Scopes with Food

Secuirty

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Sustainability and Sustainable

Development

 Sustainability

 Maximizing the net benefits of economic

development subject to maintain the services and quality of natural resources over the time

(Pearce and Turner 1990)

 Environmental Sustainability Indicators (ESI)

 ESI is single number derived from a list of

indicators that are each given the same weight

 Total Productivity Factor (TFP)

 TFP attempts to measure an efficiency of production by including of all of the costs

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Food Security, Concept,

Dimension

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Food Security

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A person, household or community, nation

or region is food secure when all members at all times have physical and economic

access to buy, produce, obtain or consume sufficient, safe and nutritious food to meet their dietary needs and food preferences for a healthy and active life.

(26)

Food Security

FOOD UTILISATION

FOOD ACCESS

•Affordability

•Allocation

•Preference

•Nutritional Value

•Social Value

•Food Safety

FOOD AVAILABILITY

•Production

•Distribution

•Exchange

Environmental Welfare

• Ecosystem stocks & flows • Ecosystem

services • Access to

natural capital

Social Welfare

• Income

• Employment • Wealth

• Social capital • Political capital • Human capital

Food System OUTCOMES Contributing to:

Food System ACTIVITIES

Producing food: natural resources, inputs, technology, …

Processing & packaging food: raw materials, standards, storage requirement, …

Distributing & retailing food: transport, marketing, advertising, …

Consuming food: acquisition, preparation, customs, …

Ericksen, P. 2008. Global Env. Change

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Afordability

 Measures the ability of consumers to purchase

food, their vulnerability to price shocks, and the

presence of programes and policies to support consumers when shocks occur.

 Food consumption as a share of household

expenditure

 Proportion of population under global poverty

line

 Gross domestic product per capita

 Agricultural import tariffs

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Availability

 Measures the sufficiency of the national

food supply, the risk of supply disruption, national capacity to disseminate food, and research efforts to expand agricultural

output

 Sufficiency of supply

 Public expenditure on agricultural R&D

 Agricultural infrastructure

 Volatility of agricultural production

(29)

Quality and Safety

 Measures the variety and nutritional quality

of average diets, as well as the safety of food.

 Diet diversification

 Nutritional standards

 Micronutrient availability

 Protein quality

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Food Security Dimension -

Availability

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Food Security Dimension - Access

Source: Calculations based on FAO data

0 100 200 300 400 500 600

Sub-Saharan Africa

South Asia Latin America and Caribbean

East Asia

1990 1999 2015

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Food Insecurity- Negative Impact

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Misselhorn 2005 Global Environmental Change

Multiple Exposure: Food insecurity arises from overlapping and interacting stressors

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Infuencing Factors

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Sustainable

intensifcation

 Producing more food from the same area of

land while reducing the environmental impacts requires what has been called “sustainable intensification”,

 we used many ways to reduce negative

externalities, agricultural land and water bodies used for aquaculture and fisheries can be managed in ways specifically

(36)

Reducing Waste

 Roughly 30 to

40% of food in both the

developed and developing

worlds is lost to waste,

though the

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Closing Yield Gap

 There is wide geographic variation in crop

and livestock productivity, across regions that experience similar climates.

 The different between realized productivity

and the best that can be achieved using current genetic material and available technologies and management is termed the “Yield Gap”

 Developing climate adaptive/resilience

(38)

Changing diet

 The conversion of plant in to animal mater

is about 10%

 More people can be supported from same

amount of land if they are vegetarians.

 One-third of global cereal production is fed

to animal, and the demand of meat and dairy increasing.

 Increased wealth of consumers everywhere,

(39)

Expanding Aquaculture

 Aquatic products provide 3 billion people with at

(40)

Crop Modeli ng for Yield Prediction

 Changes in biophysical conditions

 Changes in socioeconomic conditions in response to changes

in crop productivity (farmers’ income; markets and prices; poverty; malnutrition and risk of hunger;

migration)

POSSIBLE BENEFITS

POSSIBLE DRAWBACKS

CO₂

CARBON DIOXIDE FERTILIZATION FLOODING AND SALINIZATION

POSSIBLE BENEFITS

POSSIBLE DRAWBACKS

CO₂

(41)

Water

Carbon

Nitrogen

Crop Models

Based on

Understanding of plants, soil, weather, management

Calculate

Require

Growth, yield, fertilizer & water requirements, etc

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Food Security Model

Food

FOODPROD _FOREXFOREX

Supply

House Hold Access Index

Demand

GDPGRWTH

National Food Self Resilience Index

Performance Index

FOODINDEX

FOODINDEX FOREXINDFOREXIND

GNP

GNP CALORIECALORIE INFANTSINFANTS

Yield

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44 Data

Minimizing Risk

Maximizing Production

Linear Program

ming

Baseline Survey

Primary Data

Secondary Data

FAO,UNDP, IFC, WB

multi-stage systematic sampling technique

ERDAS Imagine

GIS

Methodologies…

_{Satellite Time}

Series Data ( MODIS)

Satellite Time Series Data ( Land

Sat)

(45)

Food Security Research

Information Technology could have as big an impact on agriculture in the next half century as mechanization had in the previous century.

(46)

Circulated water system Light intensity

sensor Temperature and humidity

sensor

Ventilation system pH and EC

sensor

Water level sensor

Controllers and wireless communicator

Soilless Culture:Smart Indoor

Farming

Arduino Integrated Development

Environment (IDE) software

Contr oller set

Figure 39: Controller setup. Arduino nano microcontroller Light

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Controlled Environment for

Agriculture

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MICROCONTRO LLER

LCD display

Bluetooth/ Wi-Fi module

Control Block

Grow light

Ventilator/ Fog system

Water pump

Humidifer

Aeration pump for DO

pH dozer

Sensor Block

Environment Control

Temperature sensor

Light sensor

Humidity sensor

CO₂ sensor

Dissolved oxygen sensor

pH sensor

pH sensor _EC

sensor

EC sensor

Water level sensor

Root Zone Control

Moisture sensor

iFarm controller, Sesa Design Inc.

The Growtronix Automation System, Growtronix Agrowtek GC Pro, Agrowtek

Intelliclimate and Intellidose, Autogrow

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Cloud server

Farming Data

All the generated data is stored in the cloud. Data can be accessed easily by the farmer/ feld owner to know their farm condition.

Survey Drone

Aerial drone use to survey the felds, mapping and soil variation.

Agricultural Machinery

Apply the right input, in the right amount, at the right place and at the right time

Satellites and Mobile Radio Antennas

Data collection hub

Weather Monitoring

System

IoT in Agriculture

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Suitability Map

Suitable sites for rice production in northern

part of Bangladesh.

GIS Database

Database of Asia Map

NDVI Mapping

Decision Support Systems

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Website

NDVI map Developed

ICT Tools Radio App

ICT-based marketing to minimize postharvest losses in Afghanistan

RS

GIS Dataset

- Population

- Road, land use parcels - Soil types

- GPS points (Field survey data)

Centralized Geodatabase

- Store - Retrieve - Edit/update

- Manage spatial data

Spatial Modeling

- Site suitability analysis - Land use change model

- Deforestation process - Land degradation process

Decision Support System

- Site selection - Land use planning - Policy making - Precision farming - Natural resources management

End Users

Agricultural unions Urban planners Policy makers

Remote Sensing Data

Panchromatic images Multispectral

images Surface temperature Land use/ cover NDVI

LULC Changes

Land use/cover change in suburb areas of Karawang city, Indonesia in 2000 and

2016. NDVI Map in Serang city

of Indonesia.

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Data Manageme

nt Machine

Optimizati on

Targeting Agronom

y

Variable rate planting Variable rate

irrigation Variable rate

fertilizer Variable rate

pesticides

Site and time-specifc at feld level (Agronomy is Local)

Outsourcing Personal _storage Cloud

Data

sharing securityData

Data primary

user right

Big Data cloud server

Quality of data mapping and

sensing

Management High

resolution Synergy

Genetic potentials of crops for

micro-climatic adaptability Remote access to

on-board and optimization of machinery operation

Agronomic decision with weather

adaptation

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Conclusions

 Innovative Research Frame Works are Required to meet the

Challenges of Food Security:

 Site-specific solution which deal with micro climatic adaptation  Tolerance proof (water, drought) variety development

 Access of food should go through logistics management

 Utilization of food should be with value-added, capture value throughout

the supply and value chain.

 Food nutritional safety needs to be ensured throughout the critical control

points of supply chain

 Research Adaption Policy, Factors. Food Security Challenges  Crop Models

 Yield Forecasting

 Food Security Index (FSI)

 National Food Self Reliance Index (NRI)

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References

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