PAX CHIMERICA Geopolitik Makroekonomi Gl

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PAX CHIM ERICA

Geopolitik M akroekonomi Global Kontemporer

(melampaui “Kebangkitan Tiongkok” dan “Kemunduran Amerika”)

Hizkia Yosie Polimpung

Purusha Research Cooperat ive

Diskusi di Pusat Kajian Wilayah Amerika, Universit as Indonesia

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Dua Wacana

• Kebangkit an Tongkok vs Kemunduran Amerika

• Benar. Hanya saja t idak semudah it u.

• Kedua w acana harus dilihat sebagai sat u kesat uan –

sebagai corak baru t at anan ekonomi polit ik

int ernasional.

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Skema Present asi

• Krisis Finansial AS /(berdampak) Global

• Dimensi Global Pert umbuhan Ekonomi AS

–

Ekonomi sebagai Sist em Akumulasi Prof it

–

Ekonomi Riil dan Finansial

• Lahirnya CHIM ERICA dan Peran Tiongkok

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Argumen Ut ama

Krisis f inansial global t elah mengubah secara fundament al

paradigm dan corak pengorganisasian ekonomi global:

1)

Dengan mereka-ulang st at us dan posisi ekonomi

f inansial, ekonomi riil dan hubungan di ant ara

keduanya.

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Dampak Krisis Finansial AS

• Pandangan Umum:

–

Dampak domest ik, sosio-ekonomi;

Occupy Wall St reet

–

Efek penularan

(cont agion ef f ect )

–

Pemerint ahan Global: G-Zero (Roubini, 2011)

–

Negara berkembang (EM DC,

emerging market s & developing

count ries)

–

Dampak negat ive ke ekonomi riil

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Pertumbuhan Berbasis-Hutang

• Def isit neraca t ransaksi berjalan

(current account

balance)

AS

-11.903 7.657 1.619 7.24236.962 31.472 15.66920.51917.405 35.42243.052 68.941

-121.612 -113.571 -124.773 _-140.72 -215.066

-449.472 -457.726-440.417 -451.458

-1000

1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Brazil

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Pertumbuhan Berbasis-Hutang (2)

• Primasi sect or f inansial di AS

Grafik 2. Tot al Hut ang Rumah-Tangga AS dan komposisinya (Sumber: Quart erly Report in Household Debt and Credit , 2010 Q4, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Feb. 2011)

Grafik 3.

Pengeluaran Konsumsi AS dan Kont ribusi Konsumsi

Rumah-Tangga (dlm. Triliun Dolar)

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Pertumbuhan Berbasis-Hutang (3)

Second fift h Third fift h Fourth fift h Highest fift h Top 5 percent

Grafik 5.

Hut ang rumah t angga dan harga rumah di

AS , 1995–2012

(Sumber: UNCTAD, Trade and Development Report ,

2013)

Grafik 4.

Ket impangan Pemasukan di AS (dlm US$ 2010)

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Akumulasi Prof it Finansial Berskala Global

• Dominasi sekt or f inansial sw ast a t erhadap ekonomi

AS

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Akumulasi Prof it Finansial Berskala Global (2)

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

197

Forwards Fut ures Opt ions PDB Dunia

0

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

197 251

298 414

596

547 604 601

648 ₆₃₃

Forwards Fut ures Turnover Fut ures Opt ions Turnover Opt ions

Grafik 8. Dominasi Sekt or Finansial dalam Ekonomi Global (dlm US$ t riliun) (Sumber: BIS St at ist ics & Dat abank Worldbank, diolah)

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Akumulasi Profit Finansial Berskala Global (3)

• Lima (5) Bank Invest asi Terbesar AS saat krisis:

–

JP M organ Chase Bank, Bank of America, Cit ibank, Wachovia Bank dan

HSBC Bank (Laporan Office of t he Compt roller of t he Currency, AS,

2008)

–

M emiliki 95% dari t ot al derivat if AS (Q1, 2008)

–

Kont rak : aset

• JP M organ Chase



US$ 87 t riliun : US$ 1,7 t riliun

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Akumulasi Profit Finansial Berskala Global (4)

• Sement ara it u, di belahan dunia lain …

–

Pert umbuhan berbasis nir-hut ang di EM DC

Grafik 11.Evolusi Ekspor Negara Berkembang berdasarkan produknya, 1995–2012 (Angka Index, 1995 = 100)

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Akumulasi Profit Finansial Berskala Global (5)

• AS membut uhkan negara-negara berkembang di Selat an, dan t erut ama Cina,

unt uk “ menambal” defisit neraca t ransaksi berjalannya.

0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Cina (E) Cina (I) AS (E) AS (I)

Grafik 12. Tot al Volume Ekspor-Impor Cina dan AS (dlm. Jut a Dolar)

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Anat omi Akumulasi Profit

Akumulasi Finansial Akumulasi Riil

Akumulasi Spasial

Pra-Kapital

Skema 1.

Anat omi Akumulasi Profit

• Krisis dalam salah sat u roda akan membuat

roda lain t erganggu

• Pemulihan Krisis ekonomi dengan demikian

selalu mensyarat kan pembenahan dan

pembaharuan pada fungsi akumulasi

keunt ungan ini.

• Krisis 2008 disebabkan karena

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Implikasi: Perdagangan Berkelanjut an (2)

• Finansialisasi perdagangan “

t o ensure t rade is part of t he solut ion.”

Grafik 15. Est imat ed index t rader posit ions and commodit y prices, January 2006–M ay 2009

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M at riks Akumulasi Prof it

GPN (Global

Prod. Net )/GVC

(Global Value

Chain)

Finansial

Finansialisasi

Komodit as/Aset

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Peran Tiongkok

• Global Saving Glut (Bernanke [2005] Hypot hesis)

–

Increased savings in China fueled a housing boom in t he US

–

Event hough Americans’ saving st ill low despit e t he high

int erest rat e, t he void was filled by t he global savings (esp.

China)

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Cadangan Devisa

3.43 3.48 3.64 3.68 4.05

1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

T o t a l Re se r v e s ( i n T r i l l i o n U S$ ) & M 2 Ra t i o t o I t ( % )

Total reserves minus gold (current US$) M oney and quasi money (M 2) t o tot al reserves r atio (%)

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Invest asi Tiongkok (% GDP)

36.32137.19536.581 34.872 34.849

36.591 42.551

40.506 40.29 38.813

36.699_{36.188 36.161} 35.284

36.476 37.821

40.964 42.973

41.541 41.737 41.614 43.777

47.15548.063 48.315 47.747 47.787 47.68347.39746.976

46.58 46.202_45.842

0

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"Urban renewal chinese style"

–

Since 2008, less t han t w o m ont hs aft er Lehm an’s collapse, t o

ant icipat e t he im pact of US crisis, Chinese Const ruct ion Invest m ent

euphoria. In just 5 years:

• Roughly 400 billion pound stimulus program

• A new skyscrapper every 5 days

• M ore t han 30 new airport s

• System underways in 25 cit ies

• Over 60000 miles high speed railway t racks

• 3 longest bridges in t he world

• 26000 miles motorways

• “ Ghost Cit ies” and “ phantom malls” ; propert y bubble

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Const ruct ion euphoria

• China's GDP is only 9.4% of t he global GDP

• China’s Populat ion is 19% of t he total world pops,

• BUT

–

Cement demand: 53.2% of global demand

–

Iron ore = 47.7%

–

Coal = 46.9%

–

Pigs = 46.4%

–

Steel = 45.4%

–

Lead = 44.6%

–

Zinc = 41.3%

–

Aluminum = 40.6%

–

Copper = 38.9%

–

Eggs = 37.2%

–

Nickel = 36.3%

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Anat omi Konsumsi Cina

(IM F, World Economic Out look)

0.00 10.00 20.00 30.00 40.00 50.00 60.00 70.00

1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

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