Consumers
1Q17: Domestic strengths to lead again
Indonesia’s domestic assets provide buffer against external uncertainties Di antara empat negara anggota Perhimpunan Bangsa-Bangsa Asia Tenggara (ASEAN), Indonesia mencatat pertumbuhan GDP tertinggi pada tahun 2015 (+ 4.78% YoY).
Memang, selama 2006-16, Indonesia berhasil mencatat pertumbuhan PDB rata-rata 5,6% meskipun krisis global 2008-9, yang juga menyebabkan melemahnya harga komoditas (terendah pada tahun lalu). Dalam pandangan kami, ketahanan tersebut karena ketergantungan utama negara atas aset domestik yang dikombinasikan dengan kebijakan fiskal dan moneter secara konsisten yang hati-hati yang memungkinkan negara untuk mencatatkan pertumbuhan PDB rata-rata 5,6% selama dekade terakhir. Pasar domestik yang besar telah menyebabkan konsumsi swasta untuk berkontribusi lebih dari setengah dari nilai ekonomi Indonesia (2010-2015). Untuk tahun ini, kami percaya kekuatan domestik Indonesia kembali akan memberikan penyangga terhadap tantangan yang berkembang ketidakpastian, terutama yang berasal dari Amerika Serikat.
Overweight on consumer sector
Kami melihat sektor konsumer yang merupakan terbesar kedua sebagai proxy kemajuan bagi Indonesia. YTD, sektor konsumer Jakarta (JACKONS) indeks telah bergerak seiring dengan IHSG, naik 0,64% vs IHSG 0,57%. Dengan latar belakang perkembangan ekonomi terakhir, yang menunjukkan perbaikan dan lebih baik stabilitas kami, berharap perusahaan consumer bawah cakupan kami untuk memenuhi perkiraan pendapatan saat ini. Untuk 2017, kami memperkirakan Unilever Indonesia (UNVR / Beli / TP: IDR52,500) untuk mencatatkan pendapatan dan pertumbuhan laba bersih, masing-masing, sebesar 10,7% YoY dan 10,8% YoY; Kalbe Farma (KLBF / Beli / TP: IDR2,150) untuk mencatatkan pendapatan dan pertumbuhan laba bersih, masing-masing, sebesar 8,0% dan 9,0%;
Indofood CBP Sukses Makmur (ICBP / Beli / TP: IDR11,800) untuk mendapatkan pendapatan dan pertumbuhan laba bersih, masing-masing, sebesar 10,3% dan 11%;
Gudang Garam (GGRM / Beli / TP: IDR82,800) untuk mencatatkan pendapatan dan pertumbuhan laba bersih sebesar, masing-masing, 12,6% dan 13%,; dan HM Sampoerna untuk memasukkan pendapatan dan pertumbuhan laba bersih sebesar 11,1% dan 12,1%, masing-masing. Kami mencatat bahwa sektor konsumen telah mencatatkan premium selama enam tahun terakhir, karena sektor ini memperhitungkan kemampuan mencatatkan pertumbuhan yang stabil dan berkelanjutan dalam jangka panjang.
Main risks for the sector this year
Inflasi dan tingkat USD/IDR adalah dua variabel utama yang menentukan keinginan konsumen untuk belanja belanja. Tingkat inflasi untuk Januari bukanlah awal yang menggembirakan; tingkat inflasi bulanan 0,97% MoM (lebih tinggi dari konsensus 0,71%
MoM dan 0,42% MoM bulan sebelumnya) telah memberikan sinyal waspada kepada investor serta pemerintah. Beberapa alasan untuk tingkat inflasi yang lebih tinggi pada bulan Januari mencakup tingkat yang lebih tinggi listrik, harga BBM, dan biaya pendaftaran kendaraan. Namun demikian, kita melihat bahwa pemerintah Indonesia telah bekerja untuk terus meningkatkan mekanisme kontrol untuk inflasi, termasuk menjaga pasokan produk pangan strategis dan jaringan distribusi. Kami berpikir bahwa inflasi aktual C.5%, di batas atas target untuk tahun ini, akan dapat diserap oleh
Overweight (Maintain) Consumers
February 3, 2017
PT Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia
Dang Maulida +62-21-515-1140
dangmaulida@miraeasset.co.id
2 mencapai USD116.4bn (dicatat bahwa tingkat ini telah memperhitungkan dalam operasi pasar untuk menstabilkan IDR setelah hasil pemilihan presiden AS pada awal November), lebih tinggi dibandingkan dengan USD105.9bn bulan yang sama pada tahun 2015 . Keseluruhan, kita berpikir sektor konsumen Indonesia akan dapat menghadapi risiko yang menyertai pertumbuhan ekonomi negara itu.
Population growth
Semua hal lain dianggap sama, pertumbuhan penduduk meruapakan faktor utama yang memicu perluasan sektor konsumen. Penduduk Indonesia yang besar (c.255mn orang saat ini) adalah alasan utama mengapa itu adalah ekonomi terbesar di antara negara- negara anggota ASEAN. Tidak hanya ukuran, tetapi juga komposisi penduduk menguntungkan, dengan c.70% orang di kelompok usia produktif 15-65 tahun. Selain itu, laju pertumbuhan penduduk dicatat; antara empat negara yang paling padat penduduknya di dunia, Indonesia memiliki tingkat pertumbuhan tertinggi pada tahun 2015, 1,2%. Tingkat pertumbuhan menempatkan Indonesia satu langkah maju dalam hal modal manusia dibandingkan dengan negara-negara seperti China, Amerika Serikat, dan Brasil. Dalam hal PDB nominal, Indonesia peringkat ke-16 (2015) di dunia. Namun, diukur dengan paritas daya beli, Indonesia peringkat ke-8, di depan Korea, Inggris Raya Prancis, dan Arab Saudi, antara lain. Dengan manajemen hati-hati, kami meramalkan Indonesia bergerak naik tangga di media untuk jangka panjang, menjadi salah satu dari lima negara terbesar di dunia.
2017: The year of improved commodities
YTD, rata-rata harga minyak dunia berdiri di USD53.3 / barel, lebih tinggi dari USD47.5 tahun lalu / barrel. Harga minyak menyentuh ke titik terendah dalam lima tahun, di USD36 / barel, tahun lalu. Pada saat ini, kami positif bahwa harga komoditas akan mempertahankan tren stabil atas pertumbuhan global yang lebih tinggi serta berkurangnya pasokan. Pertumbuhan ekonomi global diperkirakan oleh bank dunia sebesar 3,4% tahun ini (vs 3,1% pada tahun 2016). pertumbuhan global tahun ini didukung oleh Amerika Serikat pada 1,8% (2016F: 1,6%) dan Kanada sebesar 1,7%
(2016F: 1,2%), antara lain. Sementara itu, ASEAN-4 negara diharapkan untuk
mencatatkan pertumbuhan PDB di 5,1% di tahun ini (2016F: 4,8%). Sementara itu, harga
komoditas juga didukung oleh pasokan yang lebih rendah sebagai hasil produksi yang
lebih rendah (karena permintaan yang lebih rendah) di 2015-6. Keseluruhan, harga
komoditas dunia yang stabil akan menguntungkan perekonomian Indonesia melalui nilai
ekspor yang lebih tinggi, yang akan memiliki efek spillover pada bagian lain dari ekonomi
dan pada gilirannya ke penerimaan negara yang lebih tinggi.
September 30, 2013 KB Financial Group
Figure 1. Mirae Asset Sekuritas Research Indonesia Cartoon
Construction
4
January 5, 2017Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia
Figure 2. Average economic growth of 5.6% (2006-2016) Figure 3. Private consumption of 54.5% (2010-2015)
Source: BPS, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Source: BPS, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia
Figure 4. The biggest economy in the region (ASEAN) Figure 5. The highest economic contributor in the region (ASEAN)
Source: ASEAN, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Source: ASEAN, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia
Figure 6. Consumer in the IDX in terms of market
capitalization Figure 7. Significant historical premium since 2006
Source: Bloomberg, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Source: Bloomberg, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia 5.5
6.35 6.01
4.55 6.22
6.49 6.26
5.78
5.02
4.79 5.04
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 (%, YoY)
54.5%
8.8%
32.2%
1.2%
0.4%
1.1%1.8%
Private consumption Government spending Investments Net exports Statistical discrepancy Non-profit institutions spending
Inventory changes
35.3%
16.2%
12.2%
12.0%
12.0%
12.2%
Indonesia Thailand Malaysia Singapore Phillipines Others 859.0
395.3
296.3 292.7 292.5 191.5
62.9 17.8 12.9 12.6 0
100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1,000
(USDbn)
25.8%
22.4%
12.4%
10.9%
7.4%
7.1%
6.6%
5.0%
2.4% Financials
Consumers Infrastructures Trading Property Basic Industry Miscellaneous Mining Agriculture
0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1,000
Consumer JCI
(pt)
Consumer February 3, 2017
Figure 8. Stabilized USD/IDR Figure 9. Inflation rate
Source: Bloomberg, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Source: BPS, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia
Figure 10. One step ahead with more human capital Figure 11. Ranked 8th in the world (PPP GDP)
Source: World Bank, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Source: World Bank, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia
Figure 12. Commodities will help improve the Indonesian economy in 2017
4.14 4.42 4.45
3.6
3.33
3.45 3.21
2.79 3.07 3.31
3.58
3.02 3.49
0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 4.5 5 (%, YoY)
1,371.2 1,311.1
321.4
257.6 207.8 0.5
1.2
0.8 1.2
0.9
0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.4
- 200.0 400.0 600.0 800.0 1,000.0 1,200.0 1,400.0 1,600.0
China India United
States
Indonesia Brazil
Total Growth (R)
(mn people) (%, YoY)
0.0 5,000.0 10,000.0 15,000.0 20,000.0 25,000.0
(USDbn)
74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90
2/3/2016 3/3/2016 4/3/2016 5/3/2016 6/3/2016 7/3/2016 8/3/2016 9/3/2016 10/3/2016 11/3/2016 12/3/2016 1/3/2017 (pt)
12,600 12,700 12,800 12,900 13,000 13,100 13,200 13,300 13,400 13,500 13,600 13,700
(IDR)
Consumer
6
February 3, 2017Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia
APPENDIX 1
Important Disclosures & Disclaimers
Stock Ratings Industry Ratings
Buy Relative performance of 20% or greater Overweight Fundamentals are favorable or improving
Trading Buy Relative performance of 10% or greater, but with volatility Neutral Fundamentals are steady without any material changes Hold Relative performance of -10% and 10% Underweight Fundamentals are unfavorable or worsening
Sell Relative performance of -10%
* Ratings and Target Price History (Share price (----), Target price (----), Not covered (■), Buy (▲), Trading Buy (■), Hold (●), Sell (◆))
* Our investment rating is a guide to the relative return of the stock versus the market over the next 12 months.
* Although it is not part of the official ratings at Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia, we may call a trading opportunity in case there is a technical or short-term material development.
* The target price was determined by the research analyst through valuation methods discussed in this report, in part based on the analyst’s estimate of future earnings.
The achievement of the target price may be impeded by risks related to the subject securities and companies, as well as general market and economic conditions.
Analyst Certification
The research analysts who prepared this report (the “Analysts”) are registered with the Indonesian jurisdiction and are subject to Indonesian securities regulations. They are neither registered as research analysts in any other jurisdiction nor subject to the laws and regulations thereof.
Opinions expressed in this publication about the subject securities and companies accurately reflect the personal views of the Analysts primarily responsible for this report. Except as otherwise specified herein, the Analysts have not received any compensation or any other benefits from the subject companies in the past 12 months and have not been promised the same in connection with this report. No part of the compensation of the Analysts was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views contained in this report but, like all employees of PT Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia, the Analysts receive compensation that is impacted by overall firm profitability, which includes revenues from, among other business units, the institutional equities, investment banking, proprietary trading and private client division. At the time of publication of this report, the Analysts do not know or have reason to know of any actual, material conflict of interest of the Analyst or PT Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia except as otherwise stated herein.
Disclaimers
This report is published by PT Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia (“Mirae”), a broker-dealer registered in the Republic of Indonesia and a member of the Indonesia Exchange. Information and opinions contained herein have been compiled from sources believed to be reliable and in good faith, but such information has not been independently verified and Mirae makes no guarantee, representation or warranty, express or implied, as to the fairness, accuracy, completeness or correctness of the information and opinions contained herein or of any translation into English from the Bahasa Indonesia. If this report is an English translation of a report prepared in the Indonesian language, the original Indonesian language report may have been made available to investors in advance of this report. Mirae, its affiliates and their directors, officers, employees and agents do not accept any liability for any loss arising from the use hereof. This report is for general information purposes only and it is not and should not be construed as an offer or a solicitation of an offer to effect transactions in any securities or other financial instruments. The intended recipients of this report are sophisticated institutional investors who have substantial knowledge of the local business environment, its common practices, laws and accounting principles and no person whose receipt or use of this report would violate any laws and regulations or subject Mirae and its affiliates to registration or licensing requirements in any jurisdiction should receive or make any use hereof. Information and opinions contained herein are subject to change without notice and no part of this document may be copied or reproduced in any manner or form or redistributed or published, in whole or in part, without the prior written consent of Mirae. Mirae, its affiliates and their directors, officers, employees and agents may have long or short positions in any of the subject securities at any time and may make a purchase or sale, or offer to make a purchase or sale, of any such securities or other financial instruments from time to time in the open market or otherwise, in each case either as principals or agents.
Mirae and its affiliates may have had, or may be expecting to enter into, business relationships with the subject companies to provide investment banking, market-making or other financial services as are permitted under applicable laws and regulations. The price and value of the investments referred to in this report and the income from them may go down as well as up, and investors may realize losses on any investments. Past performance is not a guide to future performance. Future returns are not guaranteed, and a loss of original capital may occur.
Disclosures
As of the publication date, PT Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia, and/or its affiliates do not have any special interest with the subject company and do not own 1% or more of the subject company's shares outstanding.
Consumer February 3, 2017
Distribution
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Securities Act of 1933, as amended, and, in such case, may not be offered or sold in the U.S. or to U.S. persons absent registration or an applicable exemption from the registration requirements.
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All Other Jurisdictions: Customers in all other countries who wish to effect a transaction in any securities referenced in this report should contact Mirae or its affiliates only if distribution to or use by such customer of this report would not violate applicable laws and regulations and not subject Mirae and its affiliates to any registration or licensing requirement within such jurisdiction.
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