Reksa Dana Indosurya HEPI Higher Education Performance Investment. Bisma Dewabrata, CFA, PRM, CAIA

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Reksa Dana Indosurya HEPI

Higher Education Performance Investment

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Background

1. Keinginan para orang tua untuk memberikan

pendidikan terbaik bagi anak-anaknya

2. Pendidikan tinggi (universitas) di negara-negara

maju yang lebih baik

3. Jumlah keluarga Indonesia yang dapat mengirim

anaknya kuliah di negara-negara maju terbatas

4. Minimnya produk investasi Indonesia yang didesain

untuk pembiayaan kuliah di negara-negara maju

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Background

(cont’d)

5. Investasi di pasar modal Indonesia tidak optimal

untuk pembiayaan kuliah di negara-negara maju

a. Inflasi biaya kuliah yg tinggi di Amerika Serikat (termasuk

untuk ukuran masyarakat Amerika)

b. Depresiasi jangka panjang Rp. vs. US$ (hasil investasi

dalam Rp. terdepresiasi nilai tukar)

c.

Pasar modal Indonesia yang relatif sangat fluktuatif

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US Tuition Inflation

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US Tuition Inflation

(cont’d)

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HEPI Investment Objective

1. Maximum capital gain dalam US$ dalam jangka

panjang

2. Melebihi / menyamai inflasi biaya kuliah di US

3. Mempertahankan daya beli investor Indonesia

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Investment Strategy

1. Perusahaan

–

perusahaan besar / large cap dgn

minimum market cap > US$ 5 milyar

–

TLKM (PT Telkomunikasi Indonesia Tbk.) Rp. 402 T = US$ 31

milyar *

–

GOOG (Alphabet Inc. a.k.a Google) = US$ 579,1 milyar *

2. High conviction (long-term fundamental)

3. Low Turnover (minimum trading)

4. Concentrated (20-30 saham)

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Investment Style: Large Cap Blend

1. Value: saham-saham yang undervalued

2. Growth: saham-saham perusahaan yang sedang

berkembang pesat

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Historical Return in US$

(As of Dec. 31, 2016)

Return in %

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

US Tuition*

6.25

6.24

6.01

5.19

5.02

4.85

4.22

3.69

3.47

4.07 S&P 500

5.49 -37.00

26.46

15.06

2.11

16.00

32.39

13.69

1.38

11.96 Ex. Fund 1*

15.02 -44.47

79.38

15.20

0.45

18.14

36.49

9.04

4.54

19.25 Ex. Fund 2*

-9.66

-40.39

-31.49

6.14 -4.74

12.52

34.43

0.64 -6.21

-3.70

Return in % (Annualized)

1-Year

3-Year

5-Year

10-Year

US Tuition*

4.07

3.74

4.06

4.90 S&P 500

11.96

8.87

14.66

6.95 Ex. Fund 1*

19.25

10.78

17.00

11.26 Ex. Fund 2*

-3.70

-3.13

6.57 -0.16

* Note: 1. Sumber data: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

2. Ex. Fund 1 & Ex. Fund 2 adalah salah satu contoh reksa dana lokal Amerika Serikat yang terbaik dan terburuk dari segi performa 10 tahun terakhir menurut Morningstar.

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US Average Full-Time Undergraduate Budgets

2016-17

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US Average Full-Time Undergraduate Budgets

2016-17

Sector

Tuition & Fees

Room &

Board

Books &

Supplies

Transport

Other

Expenses

Total

Expenses

Private Nonprofit

4-Yr On-Campus

$33,480

$11,890

$1,230

$1,070

$1,650

$49,320

Public 4-Yr

Out-of-State On-Campus

$24,930

$10,440

$1,250

$1,160

$2,110

$39,890

Public 4-Yr

In-State On-Campus

$9,650

$10,440

$1,250

$1,160

$2,110

$24,610

Public 2-Yr

In-District Commuter

$3,520

$$8,060

$1,390

$1,760

$2,270

$17,000

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Saving & Investing in Indonesia

(Public 4-yr Out-of-State On Campus)

Year Salary (Rp.) Fund Exchange Rate Saving IHSG Investing Future Value

Monthly Increase Annual* Allocated* Rp. / US$ in US$ in IHSG (Rp.) of Investment

1996 2.000.000 5,00% 26.000.000 6.500.000 2.326 2.794 1997 2.100.000 5,00% 27.300.000 6.825.000 2.431 2.807 -45,09% 3.747.421 48.760.230 1998 2.205.000 30,00% 28.665.000 7.166.250 14.500 494 -0,91% 7.100.708 81.935.919 1999 2.866.500 5,00% 37.264.500 9.316.125 6.815 1.367 70,06% 15.843.367 123.973.801 2000 3.009.825 5,00% 39.127.725 9.781.931 8.975 1.090 -38,50% 6.016.116 76.543.274 2001 3.160.316 30,00% 41.084.111 10.271.028 11.320 907 -5,83% 9.671.894 130.678.671 2002 4.108.411 5,00% 53.409.345 13.352.336 8.710 1.533 8,39% 14.473.182 180.405.775 2003 4.313.832 5,00% 56.079.812 14.019.953 8.235 1.702 62,82% 22.827.273 174.756.349 2004 4.529.523 30,00% 58.883.802 14.720.951 9.298 1.583 44,56% 21.281.235 112.697.632 2005 5.888.380 5,00% 76.548.943 19.137.236 9.805 1.952 16,24% 22.244.438 101.343.799 2006 6.182.799 5,00% 80.376.390 20.094.098 9.150 2.196 55,30% 31.205.283 91.547.028 2007 6.491.939 30,00% 84.395.210 21.098.802 9.015 2.340 52,08% 32.086.903 61.897.617 2008 8.439.521 5,00% 109.713.773 27.428.443 9.218 2.976 -50,64% 13.539.362 52.911.161 2009 8.861.497 5,00% 115.199.461 28.799.865 10.190 2.826 86,98% 53.850.289 112.548.462 2010 9.304.572 30,00% 120.959.435 30.239.859 9.072 3.333 46,13% 44.190.193 63.202.067 2011 12.095.943 5,00% 157.247.265 39.311.816 8.545 4.601 3,20% 40.569.450 56.224.875 2012 12.700.741 5,00% 165.109.628 41.277.407 9.395 4.394 12,94% 46.620.100 57.206.026 2013 13.335.778 30,00% 173.365.110 43.341.277 9.927 4.366 -0,98% 42.914.457 53.182.688 2014 17.336.511 5,00% 225.374.642 56.343.661 11.855 4.753 22,29% 68.903.401 69.825.125 2015 18.203.337 5,00% 236.643.375 59.160.844 13.326 4.440 -12,13% 51.985.648 59.952.241 2016 19.113.503 30,00% 248.475.543 62.118.886 13.140 4.727 15,32% 71.638.356 71.638.356 Total (Rp.) 1.781.231.094 Exchange Rate 13.140 Total (US$) 57.182 Total (US$) 135.558

2016/2017 College Cost:

US$ 40,000

4 Years College Cost:

US$ 160.000

Assumptions:

1. 13 x Monthly Salary

2. 25% of salary is

allocated for saving /

investing

Kesimpulan:

Target biaya kuliah

tidak tercapai

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College Financial Planning

–

Birth

(Public 4-yr Out-of-State On Campus)

Start at Birth

Year Time to Investment Total College Routine Additional Future Value

Present Value of College Cost

0

19

6.000

10.000

137.804 2016/2017 College Cost

40.000

1

18

6.000

46.140 4 Years College Cost

160.000

2

17

6.000

41.196

3

16

6.000

36.782 Tuition Inflation Rate

5,00%

4

15

6.000

32.841 Years to College

19

5

14

6.000

29.323 Future Value of 4 yr. College Cost

404.312

6

13

6.000

26.181

7

12

6.000

23.376 HEPI Expected Return

12,00%

8

11

6.000

20.871

9

10

6.000

18.635 Investment Contribution

10

9

6.000

16.638 Monthly

500

11

8

6.000

14.856 Yearly

6.000

12

7

6.000

13.264

13

6

6.000

11.843

14

5

6.000

10.574

15

4

6.000

9.441

16

3

6.000

8.430

17

2

6.000

7.526

18

1

6.000

6.720

19

0 -505.722

Kesimpulan: Target

biaya kuliah tercapai

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College Financial Planning

–

Kindergarten

(Public 4-yr Out-of-State On Campus)

Start at Kindergarten

Present Value of College Cost

0

14

7.800

10.000

86.991 2016/2017 College Cost

40.000

1

13

7.800

34.035 4 Years College Cost

160.000

2

12

7.800

30.389

3

11

7.800

27.133 Tuition Inflation Rate

5,00%

4

10

7.800

24.226 Years to College

14

5

9

7.800

21.630

6

8

7.800

19.313 Future Value of 4 yr. College Cost

316.789

7

7.800

17.243

8

6

7.800

15.396 HEPI Expected Return

12,00%

9

5

7.800

13.746

10

4

7.800

12.273 Investment Contribution

11

3

7.800

10.958 Monthly

650

12

2

7.800

9.784 Yearly

7.800

13

1

7.800

8.736

14

0 -331.853

Kesimpulan: Target

biaya kuliah tercapai

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College Financial Planning

–

Kindergarten

(In Indonesia and Later Converted; Public 4-yr Out-of-State On Campus)

Start at Kindergarten

Year Time to Investment Total College Routine Additional Future Value

Present Value of College Cost

0

14 113.230.000 134.000.000 1.747.575.588

2016/2017 College Cost

40.000

1

13

113.230.000

696.032.528 4 Years College Cost

160.000

2

12

113.230.000

605.288.977

3

11

113.230.000

526.375.896 Tuition Inflation Rate

5,00%

4

10

113.230.000

457.750.916 Years to College

14

5

9

113.230.000

398.072.751

6

8

113.230.000

346.174.983 Future Value of 4 yr. College Cost

316.789

7

113.230.000

301.043.259

8

6

113.230.000

261.795.475 Investment Contribution in US$

9

5

113.230.000

227.664.526 Monthly

650

10

4

113.230.000

197.983.316 Rp./US$ as of March 10, 2017

13.400

11

3

113.230.000

172.171.721 Rp. equivalent to $650 is

8.710.000

12

2

113.230.000

149.725.251 13 x salary

113.230.000

13

1

113.230.000

130.205.185

14

0 -IHSG 2000 - 2016 Annualized Return

14,99%

In Rp.

6.217.860.372 Exp. Annualized Rp. Depreciation Rate

Exchange Rate

In US$

Historical Depreciation (1/1/2000 - 31/12/2016)

3,88%

22.818

272.499 Interest Rate Parity Method

5,97%

30.177

206.047 Kesimpulan:

Target biaya

kuliah tidak

tercapai

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College Financial Planning

–

Elementary

(Public 4-yr Out-of-State On Campus)

Start at Elementary School

Present Value of College Cost

0

12

9.600

10.000

76.361 2016/2017 College Cost

40.000

1

11

9.600

33.394 4 Years College Cost

160.000

2

10

9.600

29.816

3

9

9.600

26.622 Tuition Inflation Rate

5,00%

4

8

9.600

23.769 Years to College

12

5

7

9.600

21.223 Future Value of 4 yr. College Cost

287.337

6

9.600

18.949

7

5

9.600

16.918 HEPI Expected Return

12,00%

8

4

9.600

15.106

9

3

9.600

13.487 Investment Contribution

10

2

9.600

12.042 Monthly

800

11

1

9.600

10.752 Yearly

9.600

12

0 -298.439

Kesimpulan: Target

biaya kuliah tercapai

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College Financial Planning

–

Jr. High & High

(Public 4-yr Out-of-State On Campus)

Start at Junior High School Start at High School

Present Value of College Cost Present Value of College Cost

2016/2017 College Cost 40.000 2016/2017 College Cost 40.000 4 Years College Cost 160.000 4 Years College Cost 160.000

Tuition Inflation Rate 5,00% Tuition Inflation Rate 5,00%

Years to College 6 Years to College 3

Future Value of 4 yr. College Cost 214.415 Future Value of 4 yr. College Cost 185.220

HEPI Expected Return 12,00% HEPI Expected Return 12,00%

Investment Contribution Investment Contribution

Monthly 1.800 Monthly 3.800

Yearly 21.600 Yearly 45.600

Year Time to Investment Total Year Time to Investment Total

College Routine Additional Future Value College Routine Additional Future Value

0 6 21.600 10.000 62.373 0 3 45.600 10.000 78.114 1 5 21.600 38.067 1 2 45.600 57.201 2 4 21.600 33.988 2 1 45.600 51.072 3 3 21.600 30.346 3 0 -4 2 21.600 27.095 5 1 21.600 24.192 6 0 -216.061 186.387