THE POLICY MAKER'S DILEMMA IN A TECHNOLOGICAL AGE
THE LUGUBRIOUS EXAMPLE OF CLIMATE CHANGE
As a result, we face the likelihood that our national wealth and quality of life will be greatly reduced by the end of the century.5 Less certain, but even more disastrous consequences are within the realm of possibility. To take just one example, many predict that there will be between one and two hundred million refugees from deteriorating environmental conditions in the developing world.6 Some two million Syrian refugees have provoked a political crisis in Western European democracies and the more fragile democracies of Eastern Europe.7 The stress of a hundred times as many refugees may possibly result in democratic government among developed nations. The discovery of global warming and the problem of uncertaintyThe idea that increased carbon dioxide concentrations in the.
The Discovery of Global Warming and the Problem of
The large waves that move through the atmosphere as a result of the Earth's rotation are called Rossby waves. 1995.23 Given the extensive authorship of the 1995 report and the definitive nature of its conclusions,24 it is fair to say that anthropogenic. % of 489 members of the American Geophysical Union and the American Meteorological Society believe that anthropogenic climate change is occurring); Naomi Oreskes, The Scientific Consensus on Climate Change, 306 SCI.
Since the publication of the 1995 IPCC report, outright denial has remained widespread and politically dominant in the United States.
Beneficial Precautions Against Climate Change
THE NEXT, AND POSSIBLY MORE SERIOUS, THREAT: THE
See CALDER, supra note 11 (citing early warnings regarding global warming and later confirmations of those warnings); IMPACT TEAM, supra note 11 (same); PONTE, supra note 11 (same); WEART, supra note 10 (same); CLIMATE CHANGE: IPCC SCIENTIFIC ASSESSMENT, supra note 22 (same); CLIMATE CHANGE 1995: THE SCIENCE OF CLIMATE CHANGE, supra note 23 (same);. Unfortunately, it is not difficult to identify such situations, which include the promises and dangers associated with bioengineering humans and the possible militarization of outer space. But perhaps the most serious threat we currently face is an event that some Al experts describe as the Singularity.78.
For present purposes, the Singularity can be defined, following David Chalmers, as “a rapid increase in intelligence towards superintelligence (intelligence of much greater than human level), as each generation of intelligent systems in turn creates more intelligent systems.” of the astrophysical term in this context was first introduced by Vernor Vinge, a science fiction writer, and refers to the idea that this process will produce an 'event horizon' beyond which the rate of development will go to infinity and beyond the ability of humans to control or conceive it.8o There is a wide range of views among artificial intelligence experts about whether such an event will occur and, if it does, what its consequences for society will be. 81 Public. analysis of the concept in relation to consciousness uploading); Susan Greenfield, The Singularity: Commentary on David Chalmers Symposium, 19 J. analysis of concept in response to Chalmers, supra); Arkady Plotnisky, The Singularity Wager, a response to the David Chalmers Symposium, 19 J.
For his follow-up, see Vernor Vinge, The Coming Technological Singularity: How to Survive in the Post-Human Era, WHOLE EARTH REV. HOW THE DIGITAL REVOLUTION ACCELERATES INNOVATION, DRIVES PRODUCTIVITY AND IRREVERSIBLY TRANSFORMS EMPLOYMENT AND THE ECONOMY (2011) (same); TYLER COWEN, AVERAGE IS OVER: POWERING AMERICA BEYOND THE AGE OF THE GREAT STAGFLATION (2013) (rising income inequality, great wealth for some, poverty with some new advantages for others); MARTIN FORD, THE RISE OF THE ROBOTS: TECHNOLOGY AND THE QUESTION OF A JOBLESS FUTURE (2016) (massive unemployment); ELIZABETH KRAUSE & ISABEL SAWHILL, BROOKINGS CTR.
But it is also possible that the Singularity will cause mass unemployment and huge wealth disparities, and that the resulting upheavals will tear society apart and bring about democratic government if nothing is done to prevent these effects. The nature of the singularity in a political and economic context. To answer this question, it's helpful to start with a setup.
The Nature of Singularity, in Political and Economic
Here, the independent power source separates the feeling of the tool as an extension of the user. Instead of the "original" relationship described by Heidegger, the user becomes alienated from the tool. The image of corv6e work that comes to mind is the building of the pyramids.
Once again, the bulk of the surplus was captured by the elite, in this case those who controlled the means of industrial production.9 4 Ordinary people continued to use most of their available time (that is, time not allocated to physically to maintain oneself). to do work, in this case, for wages that enabled them to survive and obtain the desirable benefits that industrial society offered. 25, when he invites all to share in the eternal kingdom, he does not think of necessity, but of good works. Desiderius Erasmus, On the Freedom of the Will: A Diatribe or Discourse, in LUTHER AND ERASMUS: FREE WILL AND SALVATION 35, 60 (E. Gordon Rupp & Phillip S. Watson eds., 1969).
Luther's answer was Martin Luther, On the Slavery of the Will, in LUTHER AND ERASMUS: FREE WILL AND SALVATION 101 (E. Gordon Rupp & Phillip S. Watson, eds., 1969). According to some AI experts, automated machines will do most of the work we need or want.102 They will. We will be able to maintain the same level of production, and possibly even increase it, with a fraction of the human labor we currently expend.
The answer to this question largely depends on who will benefit from the surplus resulting from this reduction in the need for human labor. The previous two revolutions, the agricultural and industrial revolutions, may have allowed the owners of land or machinery to keep most of the surplus, but they gave ordinary people a clear and important role in society.
Beneficial Precautions Against the Singularity
No Precautions or the Wait-and-See Approach
But the point of the Singularity prediction is that automation will suddenly enter a second phase, and that phase will then proceed at electronic speed. If the Singularity occurs, taxation and the transfer of the resulting surplus can be introduced then as effectively as if it had been introduced in advance. But while a wait-and-see approach may be rational in the case of the Singularity, it does not seem advisable.
It would provide them with a means of survival, but it would not restore their position in society. Instead of an impoverished proletariat, they would now be a dependent party class, which would constitute a large and growing proportion of the citizenry. 34;an inconvenient truth Given our dominant Calvinist ideology, opponents of redistribution could easily argue that the rapid growth in unemployment (which, despite electronic speed, will not be instantaneous) is due to a general deterioration of the work ethic and the particular unwillingness of the displaced to seek other employment.
In contrast, the people who would seem to be in favor of a redistributive policy are unlikely to support it, at least with the necessary commitment and enthusiasm. Another possible solution that could be implemented when the Singularity occurs is to prevent it by using the law to prohibit industrial companies from installing fully automated machinery. To begin with, it probably cannot be done in theory without abandoning our present system of free enterprise; the competitive advantages that hyperintelligent machines bring to any company would be irresistible.
It seems therefore that it would be irresponsible for public policy makers to ignore the possibility that the Singularity will occur, given its potentially important consequences. The desirable course of action, here again, is to identify beneficial precautionary policies designed to combat the negative effects of the Singularity while producing positive effects in the short term.
Three Beneficial Precautions
GAO also found deficiencies in the management of the individual programs, particularly failures in administration. As the title suggests, this GAO update reiterates the need for coordination and documentation of the overall decline in funding. 40 billion per year.135 That investment in employment and retraining services is an easily affordable amount and represents only about 1 percent of the current $4.4 trillion federal budget.136.
Labor Market and Prospects for Low-Wage Entry Jobs, in THE WORK ALTERNATIVE: WELFARE REFORM AND THE REALITIES OF THE JOB MARKET 33, 33 (Demetra Smith Nightingale & Robert H. Haveman eds., 1995). If the singularity does indeed occur, and arts funding is to serve as a response to it, then the level of spending would have to increase significantly above the previously increased level—perhaps another hundredfold to $1.5 trillion a year.154 This would, of course, represent a partial taxation of profits away from the technology companies and to unemployed individuals (that is, consumer prices would remain roughly the same or fall only moderately, and the tax would constitute a transfer). See e.g. IAN JUKES & RYAN L SCHAAF, A BRIEF HISTORY OF THE FUTURE OF EDUCATION: LEARNING IN THE AGE OF DISRUPTION 4 (2019); LASSE ROUHIAINEN, THE FUTURE OF HIGHER EDUCATION: How New Technologies Will Change EDUCATION FOREVER Edward L.
This is still far short of the future envisioned by Ray Kurzweil, one of the leading artificial intelligence experts predicting the Singularity, who claims that "The Singularity. A quite different but equally promising precaution against the emergence of the Singularity would be to increase the elementary and a high school education in aesthetics Now that machines are doing so much work, there may be many more people who find.
6801, now addresses "Language instruction for English language learners and immigrant learners." Part of the No Child Left Behind Act, Pub. A reasonable level of funding for technology development and aesthetic education programs might be about $5 billion in each category, which is one-tenth of 1 percent of the federal budget, or about three-tenths of. See BRUCE BIMBER, EXPERT POLITICS IN CONGRESS: THE RISE AND FALL OF THE OFFICE OF TECHNOLOGY ASSESSMENT.
Sien Ernest Morrell, Critical Literacy, Education Investment, and the Blueprint for Reform: An Analysis of the Reauthorization of the Elementary and Secondary Education Act 54 J.
CONCLUSION
