Vol. 10, No. 1, June 2020, pp. 71-79
ISSN: 2720-9830. 71
Analysis Of The Influence Of Operating Cash Flows And Accounting Profit On Stock Returns In Lq-45 Companies Listed On The Indonesia
Stock Exchange (IDX) For The 2018-2020 Period
Ediman Imani Hati Halawa Universitas Darma Agung
Article Info ABSTRACT
Article history:
Received April 2020 Revised May 2020 Accepted June 2020
The importance of stock returns for investor because it is one of the factors that motivate investors to invest and is a form of reward and investor courage in taking risks, The main concern of investors in a company is to analyze financial statement especially accounting profit and operating cash flow. This study to determine the effect both simultaneously and partially between operating cash flow, accounting profit to stock return on LQ45 Companies listed in periode 2018-2020. The data in this researc is secondary data obtained from the company’s annual finnacial statement in the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX) or www.idx.co.id. This type of research is quantitative. The sampling technique used is purpusive sampling, This research has a population of 45 companies and 23 research samples. The data analysis technique used is descriptive statistics, classical assumption test, and multiple linear regression Analysis. Based on partial hypothesing testing operating cash flow has a thang value t value 1,468< t table1,670 with a sing value of 0,145>0,05 while accaumtimg profit has a thining t value 2,458>t table 1,670 with a sing value of 0,015<0,05 and ssimultaneous hypothesis testing F value 4,010>F table 3,14 with a significance value of 0,021<0,05. It can be concluded that operating cash flow has no significant effect on stock return and accounting profit has a significant effect on stock returns. Based on simultaneous hypothesis test or F test concluded that operating cash flow and accounting profit have a significant effect on stock returns.
Keywords:
Accounting Profit Operating Cash Flow Stock Return
This is an open access article under the CC BY-SA license.
Corresponding Author:
Ediman Imani Hati Halawa
Department of Management, Universitas Darma Agung Email: EdimanImaniHatiHalawa@gmail.com
INTRODUCTION
The purpose of investing in the capital market is to get returns. Stock return is the level of income obtained by subtracting the current closing price of the stock with the closing price of the previous year. In addition to returns, investors are also interested in the liquidity of a stock.
The main concern of investors and creditors in a company is financial statements, especially on profits and cash flows. Operating cash flows are associated with producing and delivering goods, providing services, and other transactions that are taken into account in determining profit.
This research was conducted based on empirical findings and developments from previous research regarding cash flow and accounting profit information that have been tested in previous studies, especially those related to its usefulness in predicting cash flows and accounting earnings of companies in the future. Based on the above background, the researcher reveals this research to be studied further on "Analysis of the Effect of Operating Cash Flows and Accounting Profits on Stock Returns in LQ-45 Companies Listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX) for the 2018-2020 Period".
ISSN: 2720-9830
Jurnal Ilmiah Socio Secretum, Vol. 10, No. 1, June 2020: 71-79 72
Formulation of the problem
Based on the background of the problem and the limitations of the problem above, this study formulated the problem as follows:
Does Operating Cash Flow affect Stock Return on LQ-45 companies listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX) for the 2018-2020 period?
Does accounting profit affect stock returns in LQ-45 companies listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX) 2018-2020?
Do Operating Cash Flows and Accounting Profits have a simultaneous effect on Stock Return in LQ-45 companies listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX) for the 2018-2020 period?
Research purposes
The aims of this research are:
To find out whether operating cash flow has an effect on stock returns in LQ-45 companies listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange for the 2018-2020 period.
To find out whether Accounting Profit has an effect on Stock Return on LQ-45 companies listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange for the 2018-2020 period.
To find out whether Operating Cash Flow and Accounting Profit affect Stock Return on LQ-45 companies listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange for the 2018-2020 period.
METHOD
Research Location and Time
The research time starts on June 1, 2021 until August 1, 2021 and the location of this research is carried out on LQ-45 Companies listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange for the 2018-2020 period where all financial reports have been published and have been audited by public accountants.
Population and Sample
The population in this study is LQ-45 Companies Listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange in 2018-2020 as many as 45 companies. The technique used in sampling is purposive sampling.
The criteria for the sample to be used are as follows:
LQ-45 company listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange for three consecutive years from 2018-2020.
The company has submitted consecutive annual financial reports for the period 2018-2020 which contain data and information that can be used in this study and the financial statements have been audited and accompanied by an independent auditor's report. The company earned consecutive profits during the 2018-2020 period.
Operational Definition and Measurement of Research Variables
Types and Sources of Research Data
The type of data used is secondary data. Secondary data is data by collecting information based on existing data where in this study is data on financial statements and shares of LQ-45 companies listed on the Indonesian Stock Exchange (IDX). The source of this research data is Portal http//www.idx. co.id.
Method of collecting data
Method of Library (Library Research) Field Method (Field Research)
Methods of Data Analysis and Hypothesis Testing Analysis Method
The analytical method used in this research is Descriptive statistical analysis
Multiple linear analysis Classic assumption test
In this study, the classical assumptions were tested, namely normality, multicollinearity, heteroscedasticity, and autocorrelation.
Normality test
This study uses a significance level of 5%, then the distribution of research data is normal if it has a probability value (sig)> 0.05. In addition to using statistical calculations, the normality of the data can be seen with the P- P Plot Normality image.
Multicollinearity Test
Multicollinearity can be seen with the Variance Inflation Factor (VIF), if the VIF value is < 10 and the tolerance value is > 0.10 then there are no symptoms of multicollinearity (Ghozali, 2011: 105).
Autocorrelation Test
There are several methods used to detect the presence or absence of autocorrelation, including through the Durbin Watson test (DW-Test). Durbin Watson test will get calculated DW values (d) and table DW values (dL and dU).
Heteroscedasticity Test
A good regression model is one with homoscedasticity or no heteroscedasticity. (Ghozali, 2011: 139).. If the independent variable has a significance <0.05, then there is an indication of heteroscedasticity. If the independent variable has a significance > 0.05, then there is no heteroscedasticity.
3.6.3. Hypothesis test t test
The criteria for drawing conclusions are as follows:
If the tcount > ttable or the t value is significantly less than 0.05 then Ha is accepted and Ho is rejected, which means that the independent variable (X) has an effect on the dependent variable (Y).
If the value of tcount < ttable or the value of t is significantly greater than 0.05 then Ha is rejected and Ho is accepted, which means that the independent variable (X) has no effect on the dependent variable (Y).
F Uji test
ISSN: 2720-9830
Jurnal Ilmiah Socio Secretum, Vol. 10, No. 1, June 2020: 71-79 74
If the value of Fcount > Ftable, or if F is significant less than 0.05, then Ha is accepted and Ho is rejected. With this incident, the independent variables simultaneously (simultaneously) have a significant effect on the dependent variable.
If the value of Fcount < Ftable, or F is significantly greater than 0.05, then Ha is rejected and Ho is accepted.
With this incident the independent variables together (simultaneously) have no significant effect on the dependent variable.
Determinant Coefficient Test (adjusted R2)
The value of the determinant coefficient is between zero and one. A small determinant value indicates that the ability of the independent variables to explain the variation of the dependent variable is limited, while a value close to one means that the independent variables almost provide all the information needed to predict the dependent variable. Explaining research chronological, including research design, research procedure (in the form of
RESULTS AND DISCUSSION Research result
Sample Company History and Profile
The LQ-45 index was first launched in February 1997, but to obtain longer historical data, the base day used was July 13, 1994, with an index value of 100. The LQ-45 Index Company is a stock market on the Indonesia Stock Exchange ( BEI) which consists of 45 companies that meet certain criteria.
The following is the history and profile of the research sample:
Company PT Adora Energy Tbk (ADRO)
Adora Company was established under the name PT Padang Karunia on July 28, 2004 and started its commercial operations in July 2005.
Company PT Akr Corporindo tbk (AKRA)
The company Ara Corporindo tbk was established in Surabaya on November 28, 1977 under the name PT Aneka Kimia Raya and started its commercial business activities in June 1978.
PT Aneka Tambang tbk Perusahaan company
Aneka Tambang Company (Persero) tbk was established under the name “Perusahaan Negara (PN) Aneka Tambang” on July 5, 1968 and started its commercial operations on July 5, 1968.
Company PT Astra International tbk
Astra International Company was founded on February 20, 1957 under the name PT Astra Internasional Incorporated.
Company PT Bank Central Asia tbk
Bank central asia tbk was established in Indonesia on August 10, 1955 under the name "N.V. Trade and Industry Company Semarang Knitting Factory” and began operating in the banking sector since October 12, 1956.
Company PT Bank Negara Indonesia (Persero) tbk
Bank Negara Indonesia (Persero) Tbk was established on 5 July 1946 in Indonesia as the Central Bank.
Company PT Bank Rakyat Indonesia (Persero) tbk
Bank Rakyat Indonesia tbk was founded on December 16, 1895.
Company PT Bank Tabungan Negara tbk
The State Savings Bank Company tbk was established on February 9, 1950 under the name "Bank Tabungan Pos".
Company PT Bank Mandiri (Persero) tbk
The company PT Bank Mandiri tbk was established on October 2, 1998 and started operations on August 1, 1999.
Company PT Bumi Serpong Damai tbk
PT Bumi Serpong Peace Tbk was established on January 16, 1984 and started its commercial operations in 1989.
Company PT Gudang Garam tbk
The company PT Gudang Garam Tbk (formerly PT Cigarette Company Tjap) was established on June 26, 1958 and started its commercial business activities in 1958.
Company PT H.M Sampoerna Tbk
The company Hanjaya Mandala Sampoerna tbk or known as HM Sampoerna tbk (HMSP) was founded on 27 March 1905 and started its commercial business activities in 1913 in Surabaya as a home industry.
Company PT Indofood CBP Sukses Makmur tbk
PT Infood CBP Sukses Makmur Tbk was founded on September 2, 2009 and started its commercial operations on October 1, 2009.
Company PT Vale Indonesia tbk
The company PT Vale Indonesia tbk (formerly International Nickel Indonesia tbk) (INCO) was established on July 25, 1968 and started its commercial business activities in 1978.
Company PT Indofood Sukse Makmur tbk
The company Indofood sukse prosperous tbk was established on August 14, 1990 under the name PT Panganjaya Intikusuma and through its commercial business activities in 1990.
Company PT Kalbe Farma tbk
The company PT Kalbe Farma Tbk was established on September 10, 1966 and started its commercial business activities in 1966.
Indonesian State Gas Company (Persero) tbk
Perusahaan Gas Negara (Persero) Tbk or known as PGN (Persero) Tbk was founded in 1859 under the name
“Firma L. J. N. Eindhoven & Co. Gravenhage".
PT Bukit Asam Coal Mining Company (Persero) tbk
Bukit Asam Tbk Company was established on March 2, 1981.
Surya Citra Media Tbk . Company
Surya Citra Media Tbk (SCMA) was established on January 29, 1999 under the name PT Cipta Aneka Selaras and started its commercial operations in 2002.
Company PT Semen Indonesia tbk
Semen Indonesia (Persero) Tbk (formerly known as Semen Gresik (Persero) Tbk) was established March 25, 1953 under the name "NV Factory Semen Gresik" and started its commercial operations on August 7, 1957.
Company PT Sri Rejeki Isman tbk
Sri Rejeki Isman Tbk (Sritex) was established on May 22, 1978 and started its commercial activities in 1978.
Company PT United Tractors Tbk
United Tractors Tbk was established in Indonesia on October 13, 1972 under the name PT Inter Astra Motor Works and started its operations in 1973.
Company PT Unilever Indonesia Tbk
Unilever Indonesia Tbk (UNVR) was established on December 5, 1933 under the name Lever's Zeepfabrieken N.V. and started commercial operations in 1933.
Descriptive Statistical Analysis Results
Based on the test results above, operating cash flow has a minimum value of -4588.00 and a maximum value of 4524.00 then the average value (mean) is -22.1739 and the standard deviation is 965.91558. Meanwhile, Accounting Profit has a Minimum value of -4609.00 and a Maximum value of 9573.00 and an average value (mean) of -775.7971, with a standard deviation of 6014,13264. Then the stock return has a minimum value of -769.00 while the maximum value is 674.00 then the average value (mean) is -18.5362 with a standard deviation of 6014,13264.
Classic Assumption Test Results Normality test
Based on the results of the One sample Kolmogorov-Smirnov Test above, it shows that the Asymp value. Sig
ISSN: 2720-9830
Jurnal Ilmiah Socio Secretum, Vol. 10, No. 1, June 2020: 71-79 76
Based on Figure 1 above, it shows that the data points follow a diagonal line so that the P-P Plot Probability Normality test is normally distributed.
Multicollinearity Test
Based on the results of the multicollinearity test above, it can be seen that the Tolerance value is greater than 0.10, namely 0.999> 0.10 as well as the Variance Inflation Factor (VIF) value is smaller than 10%, namely 1.001 <10, so in this test it does not occur. symptoms of multicollinearity.
Autocorrelation Test
Table 1. Autocorrelation test results
Based on the results of the autocorrelation test in the table above, it shows that the value of Durbin Watson is 1.705, with observations of 69 samples, and the number of independent variables as much as 2 variables (k = 2), the value of dl is 1.5507 and du is 1.6697. It can be proved that dw lies between du and 4-du. Where du is 1.6697 so 4-du is 2.3303 then the result is 1.6697 <1.705 <2.3303, which means that the regression model in this study does not have autocorrelation.
Heteroscedasticity Test
Based on the test results in the table above, it can be seen that the significance value of the two variables is 0.418> 0.05 (X1) and 0.072> 0.05 (X2), which indicates that the two independent variables have a significant level greater than 0.05. means that there is no heteroscedasticity. It can also be seen from the satter plot image that the results obtained do not have a clear pattern, and the points spread above and below the number (zero) on the Y axis, which means that there is no heteroscedasticity.
Multiple Linear Regression Analysis Results
Based on the table above, overall multiple linear regression equations can be obtained as follows: Y = -63.317 + 0.009X1+0.038X2
In accordance with the results of the linear regression equation above, it shows a Constant Interpretation of - 63.317 which means that if there is no operating cash flow and accounting profit then the stock return is - 63.317,
The value of the regression coefficient for operating cash flow is 0.009 and is positive, this means that for every one unit change in operating cash flow with variable X2, the stock return will increase by 0.009.
The coefficient value of accounting profit is 0.038 and is positive, which means that for every one unit change in accounting profit with variable X1, the return will increase by 0.038.
Hypothesis Test Results t test
Table 2 Partial t test results
Based on the results of the partial t test above, it can be seen that the operating cash flow has a tcount value of 1.468 < ttable 1.670 with a sig value of 0.145> 0.05 which means that Ha is rejected and Ho is accepted thus that operating cash flow does not partially affect stock returns.
Based on the table above, it can be seen that accounting profit has a tcount value of 2,458 > ttable 1,670 with a sig value of 0.015 <0.05, which means that Ha is accepted and Ho is rejected, thus accounting profit has a partial effect on stock returns.
F Uji test
Table 3 Simultaneous F test results
ISSN: 2720-9830
Jurnal Ilmiah Socio Secretum, Vol. 10, No. 1, June 2020: 71-79 78
Based on the simultaneous F test above, the Fcount value is 4.010 > Ftable 3.14 with a significance value of 0.021 <0.05, then Ha is accepted and Ho is rejected. Thus, the third hypothesis (H3) states that operating cash flow and accounting profit have a significant simultaneous effect on returns. share.
Determinant Coefficient Test Results (Adusted R2)
Table 4 Results of the coefficient of determination
Based on the table above, it can be seen that the R2 value is 0.050, this indicates that 5.0% of stock returns is influenced by accounting profit, while the 95.5% is influenced by other variables not analyzed in this study.
Besides, it can also be explained that accounting profit is able to explain or influence the stock return variable of 5.0%.
Discussion
Effect of Operating Cash Flow on Stock Return
The results of the study do not support the first hypothesis that the operating cash flow variable has a significant effect on stock returns in LQ-45 companies listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange for the 2018-2020 period.
Based on the results of the regression calculation, operating cash flow has a tcount of 1.468 < ttable 1.670 and a sig value of 0.145 > 0.05, which means that operating cash flow has no significant effect on stock returns.
However, if it is seen from the value of the regression coefficient, that operating cash flow actually has a positive effect on stock returns but is not significant. The results of this study are reinforced by the results of research by Aida listianti (2020) which states that the high and low cash flows from the company's operating activities will not affect the increase or decrease in stock returns.
Effect of Accounting Profit on Stock Return
The results of the study support the second hypothesis that the accounting profit variable has a significant effect on stock returns in LQ-45 companies listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange for the 2018-2020 period. Based on the results of the analysis using accounting earnings regression has a tcount value of 2,458 > ttable 1,670 with a sig value of 0.015 <0.05, which means that accounting earnings have a significant effect on stock returns.
The results of this study are in line with the results of research from Sri Purwanti, Endang, Yuli Chomsatu (2015) which states that accounting profit has a significant effect on stock returns because the share of profits earned by companies from operational activities will ultimately be distributed to shareholders as a reward for their investment in company called dividends.
This statement is in line with the results of research from Rezza Winar Nugroho (2018), which states that accounting profit has a positive effect on stock returns because profits or profits derived from the company's operational activities will be distributed to shareholders. will be able to distribute larger dividends. With the increase in dividends received by shareholders, the return received by shareholders will also increase.
Effect of Operating Cash Flow and Accounting Profit on Stock Return
The results of the study support the third hypothesis that operating cash flow and accounting profit have a positive effect on stock returns of LQ-45 companies listed on the Indonesian stock exchange for the 2018-2020 period. Based on the results of the regression analysis of operating cash flow and accounting profit, it has a value of Fcount 4.010 > Ftable 3.14 with a sig value of 0.012 <0.05, hereby Ha is accepted and Ho is rejected, which means that operating cash flow and accounting profit have a significant simultaneous effect on return.
share. These results indicate that all independent variables, namely operating cash flow and accounting profit, together have the ability to influence stock returns, because financial statement information, especially cash flow statements and accounting earnings, play an important role in making decisions for investors to invest.
The results of this study are in line with the results of Monika loyal's research (2018) with the title of research on the effect of accounting profit, operating cash flow and Return On Equity (ROE) on stock returns, stating that all independent variables have an effect on stock returns, especially with operating cash flow having an effect on stock returns. positive with a significance of 0.015 less than 0.05.
CONCLUSION
This study aims to examine the effect of operating cash flow and accounting profit on stock returns in LQ-45 companies listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange. Based on the results of this study, the following conclusions can be drawn: Partially, operating cash flow has no effect on stock returns in LQ-45 companies listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange for the 2018-2020 period. This is shown in the regression results with
tcount 1.468 < ttable 1.670 with sig value 0.145 > 0.05, which means that Ha is rejected and Ho is accepted.
Meanwhile, accounting profit has an effect on stock returns in LQ-45 companies listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange for the 2018-2020 period. This is shown in the regression results with a tcount value of 2,458 > ttable 1,670 with a sig value of 0.015 <0.05, which means that Ha is accepted and Ho is rejected. Simultaneously, operating cash flow and accounting profit have an effect on stock returns in LQ-45 companies listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange for the 2018-2020 period. This is shown in the regression results with a value of Fcount 4.010 > Ftable 3.14 with a sig value of 0.012 <0.05, with this Ha accepted and Ho rejected. The coefficient of determinant (R2) has a value of 0.050, this indicates that 5.0% of stock returns is influenced by accounting earnings, while the 95.5% is influenced by other variables not analyzed in this study. The results of multiple linear regression obtained the following regression equation: Y = -63.317 + 0.009X1+0.038X2
REFERENCES
Azilia Yocelyn dan Yulius jogi christiawan (2012) “Analisis pengaruh perubahan arus kas dan laba akuntansi terhadap return saham pada perusahaan berkapitalisasi besar
Budy Setyawan (2020), “Pengaruh arus kas operasi, arus kas investasi, arus kas pendanaan dan laba akuntansi terhadap return saham pasar emiten sub sector makanan dan minuman.
Cahyaningrum 2012, “Analisis manfaat rasio keuangan dalam memprediksi Pertumbuhan laba. (studi kasus:Perusahaan manufaktur yang terdaftar di BEI Jakarta periode 2001-2005)
Dwi Martini, dkk (2012), Akuntansi menengah berbasis PSAK Buku 1. Jakarta :Salemba Empat Harahap, 2011. Analisis Laporan Keuangan. Edisi pertama Cetakan Kesepuluh,
Jakarta : PT. Bumi Aksara.
Horne dan john, 2012. Prinsip - prinsip manajemen keuangan. Edisi 13. Jakarta:Salemba Empat
Imam Ghozali, 2011. “Aplikasi analisis Multivariate dengan program SPSS.”Semarang : Badan penerbit Universitas di ponegoro.
Indriantoro dan Bambang supomo 2014. Metodologi penelitian bisnis untuk Akuntansi dan Manajemen.Edisi satu . Cetakan ke-12 yogyakarta: BPFE
Jogiyanto, 2010. Teori porfolio dan anlisis investasi. Edisi ketujuhYogyakarta : BPFE 2014. Teori porfolio dan analisis investasi. Edisi kesepuluhYogyakarta : BPFE Kamsir, 2016. “Analisis Laporan Keuangan”. Jakarta: PT. Raja Grafindo Persada
Kartikahadi dkk, (2012). Akuntansi Keuangan berdasarkan SAK berbasis IFRS, Jakarta Selatan : Salemba Empat
Munawir, 2014. “Analisis Laporan Keuangan . Yogyakarta : Liberty
Mamduh, 2016 “Analisi Laporan Keuangan”. Edisi kelima Yogyakarta :UPP STIM YKPN
Monika Setia,(2018) “Pengaruh laba akuntasi, arus kas operasi dan return on equity (ROE) terhadap return saham pada perusahaan manufaktur sector industry barang konsumsi yang terdaftar di BEI periode 2015- 2017.
Nor Hadi, 2013. Pasar Modal: Acuan Teoritis dan Praktis Investasi di Instrumen Keuangan Pasar Modal. Graha Ilmu : Yogyakarta.
Nur aini, (2010), “Pengaruh laba dan komponen Arus kas terhadap return saham (Studi empiris pada perusahaan yang terdaftar di BEI 2007-2009)
Prastowo, 2011. “AnalisisLaporan Keuangan Konsep dan aplikasi. Edisi ketiga.Cetakan pertama. Yogyakarta : UPP STIM YKPN.
Priyanto, 2013. “Analisis Korelasi, Regresi dan Multivariate dengan SPSS” Cetakan pertama. Yogyakarta : Gava Media.
Rezza Winar Nugroho, (2017).”Pengaruh arus kas operasi dan laba akaaauntansi terhadap return saham perusahaan LQ-45 di Bursa Efek Indonesia periode 2013-2016.
Simamora, 2012. Manajemen sumber daya manusia, cetakan ketiga,kencana prenada Media Group, Jakarta.
Sugiyono, 2011. Metode penelitian kuantitatif, kualitatif, dan R&D. Bandung:Afabeta.
Sumbramanyan, 2012. “Analisis Laporan Keuangan. Edisi kesepuluh, Jakarta: Salemba Empat.
Sunyoto, 2013. “Metodologi penelitian Akuntansi” Bandung: PT. Refika Aditama Anggota Ikapi.
Suwardjono, 2013. Teori penelitian Bisnis, Bandung: Alfabeta
Samsul, 2015. “Pasar Modal dan Manajemen Porfolio”. Edisi kedua Jakarta: Erlangga
Tandelin, 2011. “Porfolio dan Investasi Teori dan Aplikasi. Edisi pertama, Kanisius. Yogyakarta.
Yadianti, 2010. “Pengantar Akuntansi”. Jakarta: Kencana Prenada Media Group.
