ANALYSIS OF THE EFFECTS OF INTERNAL AND EXTERNAL FACTORS TO THE DETERMINATION
OF THE INTEREST RATE POLICY OF TERM DEPOSITS IN PRIVATE NATIONAL BANKS
IN INDONESIA IN 2010-2014
SCIENTIFIC JOURNAL
Written by:
Ayu Rizki Purnamayanti 125020100111029
ECONOMICS DEPARTMENT ECONOMICS AND BUSINESS FACULTY
BRAWIJAYA UNIVERSITY MALANG
2016
ANALYSIS OF THE EFFECTS OF INTERNAL AND EXTERNAL FACTORS TO THE DETERMINATION OF THE INTEREST RATE POLICY OF TERM DEPOSIT
IN PRIVATE NATIONAL BANKS IN INDONESIA IN 2010-2014 Ayu Rizki Purnamayanti, Dr. AsfiManzilati, SE., ME.
Economics and Business Faculty, Brawijaya University Email:ayurizkipurnamayanti@gmail.com
ABSTRACT
The interest rate shows how much benefit that will be earned on funds entrusted by clients to banks with maturities in accordance with the agreement that has been agreed upon. The longer the term of the deposit, the higher the interest rates on deposits. However, banking conditions that often experience changes cause fluctuations in interest rates on term deposits of the National Private Banks in Indonesia. Hence, the level of the highest deposit rates are at a 3- month period compared to a period of 6 months and 12 months. This study is aimed to analyze the effect of inflation, Capital Adequacy Ratio (CAR), Loan to Deposit Ratio (LDR), and Return on Assets (ROA) of the interest rates on term deposits of the National Private Banks in Indonesia that are amounted to 60 banks. The method used is multiple linear regression with time series method using SPSS 20.
The results showed that inflation and LDR variables have positive effects while CAR has negative effects on the determination of interest rate policy on deposits. In this study, there is a variable that is unrelated, which is ROA, but this variable is able to explain why there is no correlation due to the policy of the National Private Banks.
Keywords: Interest Rates of Term Deposits, Inflation, CAR, ROA, LDR
A. INTRODUCTION
The existence of a bank in economy will provide benefits in the achievement of national goals related to improving people’s standards of living. The benefit gained from the role of banks is the allocation mechanisms of financial resources in accordance with the bank intermediation function. One of the mechanism for the allocation of funds through the distribution of funds in the form of deposits or term deposits is third party deposits or customer deposits to the bank which may only be withdrawn within a certain period according to the agreement between the third party and the respective bank (Dendawijaya, 2009).
National Private Banks are the largest collector of deposit fund in Indonesia for 5 years in a row between the period of 2008 to 2014 compared with Limited Bank, Regional Government Bank, as well as foreign and mixed banks. The large amount of deposits collected by banks are affected by the amount of deposit rates offered by those banks. In general, banks have deposit rate determination based on how long the customers save money in the respective bank. The term of deposit is usually 1 month, 3 months, 6 months, and 12 months. The longer the deposit, the higher the interest rates should be (Hasibuan, 2001). However, in reality, it depends so much on each bank to determine the interest rate policy of the deposits.
The interest rate is basically a display of the strength of demand and supply of funds.
Thus, the interest rates illustrate the rarity or the adequacy of the funds in the community. In addition, interest rates have a fairly close association with other economic indicators. On the internal side, the interest rate is associated with the financial performance such as Loan to Deposit Ratio (LDR), Capital Adequacy Ratio (CAR) and Return on Assets (ROA). Within the external side, interest rate is associated with the rate of inflation.
The phenomenon of banking in Indonesia that experiences an ups and downs condition in maintaining financial stability and growth of banking in Indonesia led banks in Indonesia to competing one another in attracting customers to save their money in the banks including in the
form of term deposits with high interest rates to lure customers. Changes in banking conditions have an impact on the occurrence of fluctuations in interest rates on term deposits at the National Private Banks in Indonesia.
B. LITERATURE REVIEW
Deposits are savings that can be withdrawn only at a certain time period according to the agreement between the customer and the bank. The term of the deposit is normally 1 month, 3 months, 6 months, and 12 months. The longer the period of the deposit, the higher the interest rate should be (Hasibuan, 2001).
Theory of Interest Rate Deposit
Interest rate is the cost of the loan or the price which is paid for the loan (usually expressed in percentage) (Mishkin, 2007). In this study, there are three basic theories including Fisher’s interest rate theory i.e. Real interest rate is the nominal interest rate minus the inflation rate. The equation shows that the interest rate changes can occur because of changes in the real interest rate or changes in the inflation rate (Mankiw, 2003).
Keynes's interest rate theory, which is the interest, is one of the determinants in deciding how much money that someone wants to hold. When the interest rate rises, people tend to choose to hold a little money. In this theory, a decrease and an increase in the supply of money will affect the amount of real money supply and the interest rate balance. Thus, according to the theory of liquidity preference, a decrease in the money supply would raise the interest rates, and an increase in the money supply will lower the interest rate (Mankiw, 2003).
Loanable funds theory which analyzes changes in interest rates by using the supply and demand of funds as the basis. The supply curve shows the savings or the desires of funds to lend funds to investors. The demand curve shows the investment or borrowing requests either directly to the public or through a bank. The interest rate to the borrower indicating the cost of borrowing (Mankiw, 2003).
Loan to Deposit Ratio (LDR) to the Interest Rates of Deposits
Higher LDR gives indication of the low capacity of the liquidity of the relevant bank (Dendawijaya, 2009). This is due to the amount of funds required to finance the larger amount of credit. When the bank is able to give great credit to the community by relying on third-party funds smoothly, the bank is able to provide high level of interest rates on term deposits. When the amount of credit in public is little, the bank will lower the interest rates of term deposits because of the fear that the banks cannot earn revenues from credit to be given to depositors as the deposit interest.
Capital Adequacy Ratio (CAR) to the Interest Rates of Deposits
Capital Adequacy Ratio (CAR) is used to measure capital adequacy owned by banks to support the assets that contain or produce a risk, such as loans (Siamat, 2005). The higher the CAR, the stronger the bank's ability to bear the risk of each loan or in other words, the higher the capital adequacy to bear the risk of bad loans. Hence, the bank's performance is getting better, and can increase public confidence in the bank. With high customer confidence in the bank, banks are not afraid to lose customers even with the high interest rate of the deposits.
Return on Assets (ROA) to the Interest Rates of Deposits
Greater ROA shows better financial performance because the rate of return is greater (Siamat, 2005). With high profitability, banks can collect and increase capital reserves to get an opportunity to provide more loans. On the other hand, the credibility of the banksis also increased because customers feel safe to keep their funds in banks that have high profitability. High profitability showsthe confidence to be able to pay back the bank’sterm deposits at maturity. Thus, banks tend to lower the level of deposit rates to reduce the interest costs.
Inflation to the Interest Rates of Deposits
The quantity theory states that the central bank who oversees the supply of money has the ultimate control over the rate of inflation. If the central bank maintains the money supply in a stable condition, the price level will be stable (Mankiw, 2003). High inflation is certainly not good for the economy of a country. If the inflation rate is already overvalued the government will usually intervene. The government's strategy to curb inflation is to reduce the money supply by raising the interest rate of Bank Indonesia Certificates so that private, foreign and government banks will raisethe interest rates that have been established, which, in this case, is the interest rates on deposits.
C. RESEARCH METHODS
This study uses a quantitative approach. Data used in this study is a monthly time-series data for a period of 5 years (2010-2014). Sources of data obtained from this research is secondary data from Indonesian Financial Statistics (SEKI) and the Indonesian Banking Statistics (SPI), which has been published by Bank Indonesia. The population in this study is the whole National Private Banks in Indonesia amounted to 60 banks using census method so that the samples have the same number with the population.
The analytical tool used in this research is multiple linear regression analysis, which is used to determine the influence of independent variables on the dependent variables. The formulation of the model in this study is as follows:
Description: Y = Dependent variable (Interest Rate of 3 month Term deposit) X1 = Independent variable (LDR)
X2 = Independent variable (CAR) X3 = Independent variable (ROA)
X4 = Independent variable (Inflation Rate) a = Constant number
b1, b2, b3, b4 = Coefficient of the regression line direction e = error
The validity test of data that must be done for multiple linear regression with time series method to be used is as follows:
1. Normality Test 2. Multicolinearity Test 3. Heteroskedasticity Test 4. Autocorrelation Test
The method of data analysis include the following:
1. Multiple Linear Regression Analysis 2. Descriptive Analysis
3. Coefficient of determination (R2) Analysis 4. Partial Hypothesis Detection (t test)
5. Simultaneous Significance Detection (Test F)
D. RESULTS STATISTICS
This section will illustrate or describe the data from each variable that has been processed using SPSS version 20. The first is the result of classical assumption which is composed as follows:
1. Normality Test Results
Normality test aims to test whether in the regression model, both the dependent and independent variables have normal distribution or not. A good regression model is the one that has normal or nearly normal data distribution. In order to be considered as normal, data is seen from the histogram graph and normal probability plots. In addition to the histogram test and normal probability plots, the normality can be determined by Kolmogorov-Smirnov test. KS test is used to determine whether the data is actually normally distributed. Results of Kolmogorov-Smirnov test (KS) can be seen in table 1 below.
Table 1: Results of Kolmogorov-Smirnov test One-Sample Kolmogorov-Smirnov Test
3-month deposit
interest rate LDR CAR ROA Inflation
N 60 60 60 60 60
Normal Parametersa Mean 7.2480 82.1032 16.0770 2.3575 5.6337 Std.
Deviation 1.05130 3.90666 .61808 .15249 1.55722 Most Extreme Differences Absolute .171 .132 .128 .130 .117
Positive .171 .105 .128 .130 .068
Negative -.108 -.132 -.063 -.103 -.117
Kolmogorov-Smirnov Z 1.326 1.021 .991 1.009 .905
Asymp. Sig. (2-tailed) .059 .248 .280 .260 .386
a. Test distribution is Normal. Normal Normal Normal Normal Normal Source: Output SPSS version 20
2. Multicolinearity Test Results
Multicolinearity can also be seen from the value of Tolerance and Variance Inflation Factor (VIF). The value commonly used is the tolerance value above 0.10 or equal to VIF under 10. The results showed that the tolerance is above 0.1 and VIF under 10 meaning that multicolinearity does not happen.
3. Heteroskedasticity Test Results
Scatterplot graph can be used to determine heteroskedasticity. Scatterplot graph results will illustrate that the points formed should be spread randomly and dispersed either above or below 0 (zero) on the Y axis in order that heteroskedasticity does not happen.
4. Autocorrelation Test Results
Autocorrelation test is used to detect the presence or absence of autocorrelation symptoms done through testing to the Durbin Watson test value (DW test). The result obtained is lower limit value (dl) of 1.444 and an upper limit (du) of 1,727, so 4-du equals to 2.273 and 4-dl equals to 2.556. The results of the regression test by SPSS version 20 produce Durbin-Watson value of 2.089 which can be concluded that autocorrelation problem does not occur.
Table 2: Autocorrelation Test Results Model Summaryb
Model R R Square Adjusted R
Square Std. Error of the Estimate Durbin-Watson
1 .782a .612 .583 .67859 2.089
a. Predictors: (Constant), CAR, ROA, LDR, Inflation Source: Output SPSS version 20
The results of data analysis can be seen as follows:
1. Multiple Linear Regression Analysis Test Results
Results of multiple linear regression analysis are needed to determine the overall influence of independent variables on the dependent variable. This study uses a variable rate of 3- month deposit interest rate as the dependent variable with LDR, CAR, ROA, and inflation as the independent variables.
Table 3: Multiple Linear Regression Analysis Test Results Coefficientsa
Model
Unstandardized Coefficients
Standardized Coefficients
t Sig.
B Std. Error Beta
1 (Constant) 1.443 .541 2.665 .010
LDR .014 .007 .051 1.990 .052
CAR -.076 .039 -.045 -1.969 .054
ROA -.002 .167 .000 -.011 .991
Inflasi .122 .033 .130 3.673 .001
a. Dependent Variable: 3-month deposit interest rate
Source: Output SPSS version 20
From the results of SPSS calculations of multiple linear regression in the table above, the relationship between the independent variables and the dependent variable can be clearly seen by formulating the following equation:
TSB = 1,443 + 0,014 LDR – CAR 0.076 – 0.002 ROA + 0.122 Inflation
Multiple linear regression equation has a constant of 1.443. The magnitude of the constant indicates that if the independent variables are assumed to be in steady condition, the dependent variable (TSB) will rise by 1.443%.
2. Simultaneous Testing Results
Simultaneous testing produces F count that equals to 21.652 (Sig F = 0.000). Thus, F count is greater than F table (21.652> 2.54) and Sig F is smaller than α 10% (0.000 < 0.10). It can be concluded jointly (simultaneously) that the X1, X2, X3 and X4 variables have a significant influence (real) to Y variable. Therefore, the regression model can be used to predict the effect of X1, X2, X3 and X4 on Y.
Partial Test Results
a. When regression coefficient on LDR variable is 0.014 with significant value of 0.052 (less than 0.10), it means that the LDR variable has a significant effect on the interest rates on deposits variable. Regression coefficient of 0,014 implies that 1 unit increase in LDR variable will increase the interest rate on deposits as much as 0.014 unit.
b. When regression coefficient on CAR variable is -0.076 with a significant value of 0.054 (less than 0.10), it means that CAR variable has a significant effect on interest rates on
deposits variable. Regression coefficient of -0.076 explains that 1 unit increase in CAR variable will lower the interest rate on deposits as much as 0.076 units.
c. ROA variable with significant value of 0.991 (greater than 0.10) means that there is not enough evidence to declare that ROA variable has a significant effect on interest rates on deposits variable.
d. Regression coefficient on inflation variable of 0.122 with significant value of 0.001 (less than 0.10) means that the variable inflation has a significant effect on interest rates on deposits variable. Regression coefficient of 0.122 describes that when inflation variable is increased by 1 unit, it will increase the interest rate on deposits as much as 0.122 unit.
The results of survey revealed that the value of Adjusted R square is 0.583 or 58.3%. This means that the interest rate on deposits variable (Y) of 58.3% is explained by LDR, CAR, ROA, and inflation variables while the remaining 41.7% is explained by other variables or independent variables outside the regression equation.
E. DISCUSSION
1. Loan to Deposit Ratio (LDR) to Interest Rate of Deposits
The results showed that the higher the LDR, the higher the interest rate on deposits.
Higher LDR gives an indication of the lower liquidity capacity of the relevant bank. This is because the amount of funds required to finance the loan becomes larger (Dendawijaya, 2009).
The decline in liquidity leads to bank trying to get funds from the public particularly by increasing the interest rate of term deposits to attract people to save their money in the bank.
2. Capital Adequacy Ratio (CAR) to Interest Rate of Deposits
The results showed that the greater the CAR, the smaller the interest rate is. CAR is the ratio that indicates the minimum amount of capital that must be held by a bank. The amount of capital that is sufficiently able to save money belonging to depositors and will certainly provide a sense of security to customers of the bank (Latumaerissa, 1999, in Putri Dessy). Thus, the higher the CAR indicates the greater the capital owned by the bank and the unnecessity to seek additional funds from the public which means that the bank is likely to cut interest rates for term deposits for the bank is not afraid to lose customers due to the high confidence of customers to the bank.
3. Return on Assets (ROA) to Interest Rate of Deposits
The results showed that ROA does not affect the interest rate of term deposits. Private National Banks tend to use ROE through the perspective of shareholders in setting interest rates for term deposits because in determining the interest rate, National Private Banks tend to see the equity instead of the bank assets. The research of Ogunbiyi and Ihejirika (2014) showed that ROE has significantly negative effect on the accumulation of deposits compared to ROA. ROE is the ratio between the bank's net profit after tax to equity or equity capital. The higher the level of ROE, the higher the stock price will be and vice versa. Basically stocks and interest rates have a contradictory relationship. When interest rates tend to rise, stock prices tend to decline. Conversely, when interest rates decline, the stock prices tend to rise.
4. Inflation to Interest Rate of Deposits
The results showed that the higher the inflation, the higher the interest rate on deposits.
Interest rate policy is used to promote economic growth. Some governments use interest rate policy as one of the main variables that have an impact on monetary and fiscal policy to boost economic growth and reduce inflationary pressures. The policy has been applied in several countries such as Taiwan, Korea, and Indonesia (Emery, 1971 in Udoka, Bassey&Arikpo). The Indonesian government's strategy to curb inflation is to reduce the money supply. The amount of money supply can be reduced by raising the interest rate of Bank Indonesia Certificates.Therefore, private, foreign and government banks will raise the interest rates that have been established, which in this case is the interest rates on deposits.
F. CLOSING
Based on data analysis and discussion of the results, it can be concluded that the influence of internal and external factors on the interest rate of term deposits is as follows:
1. The effect of Loan to Deposit Ratio (LDR) to the interest rates of term deposits the higher LDR, the higher the interest rate on deposits and vice versa. The higher the LDR, the greater the credit costs incurred by using the third party funds in deposits which makes banks will raise the interest rates on deposits.
2. The effect of Capital Adequacy Ratio (CAR) to the interest rate of deposit is the higher the CAR, the lower the interest rates on deposits and vice versa. Higher CAR indicatescapital adequacy of banks which makes the banks tend to lower the interest rates on deposits.
3. The effect of Return on Assets (ROA) to the interest rates of term deposits the higher the ROA, the lower the interest rate on deposits and vice versa. In this study, National Private Banks tend to use ROE in determining the interest rate policy of deposits. ROE influence on the level of deposit rates can be seen through changes in stock prices.
4. The influence of inflation to the interest rates of term deposits is the higher the inflation, the higher the interest rates of deposits and vice versa. The increase in inflation is characterized by an increase of the money supply in the community. Hence, the government will set a policy by raising the interest rates of Bank Indonesia Certificates which will automatically make the banks follow it by increasing the interest rates of deposits.
Based on the analysis of discussionand conclusions in this study, the suggestions that can be provided through the results of this study in order to obtain better results are as follows:
1. National Private Banks tend to use ROE than ROA in determining the interest rate policy on deposits, but there are still weaknesses in ROE where ROE can sometimes be also biased because its value can go up and down in certain years, especially if it occurs due to the capital increase. On the other hand, national private banks should be more careful in keeping the capital so that the interest rates of the bank deposit do not fluctuate or is unstable.
2. The results of this research indicate that inflation is highly influential in determining the interest rate of term deposits so that the head of the bank, in determining the policy to establish the interest rate of term deposits should take into account the level of inflation.
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