Analysis of Traffic Safety Challenges in Major Cities of Uzbekistan

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PAPER • OPEN ACCESS

Analysis of existing problems of ensuring traffic safety in major cities of Uzbekistan

To cite this article: J Abdunazarov et al 2023 IOP Conf. Ser.: Earth Environ. Sci. 1142 012039

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Analysis of existing problems of ensuring traffic safety in major cities of Uzbekistan

J Abdunazarov^1*, I Shukurov¹, A Nishonov¹ and S Shaumarov²

1Jizzakh Polytechnic Institute, 130100 Jizzakh, Uzbekistan

2Tashkent State Transport University, 100067, Tashkent, Uzbekistan

*Email: [email protected]

Abstract. This article is devoted to the analysis of road traffic accidents and road safety in large cities of the Republic of Uzbekistan such as Bukhara, Fergana and Samarkand. And also, statistical data of road traffic accidents are processed throughout the republic. Such factors as transport risk, social risk and severity of the consequences of a road traffic accident have been identified. In conclusion, the author's opinion on the factors affecting road safety in the republic is presented.

1. Introduction

The growing saturation of cities with vehicles, especially passenger cars, causes extreme congestion of the city's street network, a decries in traffic speeds, and a deterioration in road safety conditions. The transport difficulties of large, historically established cities are exacerbated by their inability to handle huge traffic flows. Such difficulties are beginning to increase in the size of the large cities of the Republic of Uzbekistan, which should be prepared to meet in the near future with a very high rate of development of domestically produced vehicles.

Similar studies are being carried out in a number of countries where road safety is on the agenda for the leadership of these countries. For instance, in China, although accidents and accident victims are declining and expressways have an advantage over other highways in terms of safety, the road safety situation is still not optimistic. Mortality is rising, and the proportion of accident victims are getting high [1, 2]. Zhang J noted that, it is necessary carry on the traffic accident at the intersection with the dividing fences and exits of the roads, to study the efficiency and safety issues on the expressways, as well as the problems of congestion in the city streets [3]. A group of scientists from different countries such as Germany, Qatar, Great Britain, Canada, Italy and Egypt explored the factors related to road safety, taking into account legislation, law enforcement and driver training, and concluded that all of the above factors directly or indirectly affect road safety [4]. Scientists from USA, China and Japan studied the social side of the issue, where they noted that the culture of driving drivers has an important share in ensuring road safety on the road network of cities [5].

During the studies of the traffic flow on the road network of large cities of the Republic of Uzbekistan, such as Bukhara, Samarkand, Fergana, etc., they proved the fact that a high percentage in the traffic flow is a passenger cars and reaches this figure up to 94% [6] [7].

Research in this direction is mainly of a specific nature: they consider individual patterns, simple or complicated flow models using special sections of mathematics. They allow one to get an idea of the individual patterns of movement, but do not fully solve the task of developing the theory of traffic flows as a system of interrelated patterns of car movement. The increase in the transport fleet of the

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city and the intensity of the use of private cars will lead to an increase in the interaction of transport with the environment. Therefore, when developing promising schemes for the development of the city today, it is necessary to justify the permissible intensity of traffic, taking into account traffic safety and its interaction with the urban environment [8].

The low intensity of traffic in the past did not create inconvenience for residents and drivers of large cities. However, a sharp increase in the number of cars in the last 10 years has made it a priority not only to reorganize the road network of large cities of the republic to provide the necessary traffic modes, but also to ensure traffic safety and organization [9].

Professor K.Х. Azizov 10-15 years ago in his studies noted that [10] “At the present stage of its development, the Republic of Uzbekistan can choose the “model of development of large cities” as the main path for the development of its regional centers, since as a result of the rapid development of a number of cities of the republic - Bukhara, Samarkand, Fergana, Andijan - in the near future they will faced with a complex of transport problems typical for Tashkent city”.

2. Methods

To assess the level of road safety in the Republic of Uzbekistan, the authors used statistical models to assess the level of road safety, which are based on a comparison of statistical data on road accidents, the level of motorization (transport and social risks).

In order to more objectively compare the level of road safety, relative indicators are the ratio of two absolute indicators multiplied by a scale factor (1):

О =^А¹

А₂∙ К (1) where, O - a relative indicator;

A1 - the first absolute indicator;

A2 - the second absolute indicator;

K-scale factor.

Transport risk characterizes the accident rate in relation to the number of vehicles in the park. This indicator is calculated as the ratio of the number of deaths or the number of accidents to the number of fleet, multiplied by 10 thousand vehicles. The number of deaths per 10 thousand vehicles characterizes the risk of a car getting into an accident during its operation, in which people died; the number of accidents per 10 thousand vehicles characterizes the risk of a car getting into a traffic accident. The transport risk is calculated according to formulas (2) and (3):

Т_{𝑟𝑖𝑠𝑘} = ^А^{𝑑𝑖𝑒𝑑.}

𝑄_{𝑝𝑎𝑟𝑘}∙ 10 000 (2)

Т_{𝑟𝑖𝑠𝑘} = ^А^𝑅𝑇𝐴

𝑄_{𝑝𝑎𝑟𝑘}∙ 10 000 (3) where,

Trisk - transport risk;

Adied - the average number of people in the region who died in road traffic accidents;

ARTA - the number of accidents;

Qpark - the number of vehicles in the park.

Social risk characterizes the accident rate in relation to the population. This indicator characterizes the risk of each individual person pass away in an accident or get injured in terms of 100 thousand people and is determined by formula (4):

𝑆_{𝑟𝑖𝑠𝑘} =^А^{𝑑𝑖𝑒𝑑}

Р ∙ 100 000 (4) where,

𝑆_{𝑟𝑖𝑠𝑘}- social risk; Р- population.

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The severity of the consequences characterizes the passive safety car, the condition of the roads and the quality of medical care provided to the injured. As a rule, the calculation of this indicator is based on the ratio of the number of accident victims (the sum of the wounded and the dead) multiplied by 100 victims (Eq. 5):

𝑆_𝑆𝐶 = ^А^{𝑑𝑖𝑒𝑑}

𝐴_{𝑑𝑖𝑒𝑑}+А_𝑖𝑛𝑗∙ 100 (5) where,

Ainj - the number of injured of roads accident.

Taking into account the above formula, the state of road safety in the republic and in large cities of Uzbekistan was analyzed.

3. Results and Discussion

Table 1 presents the initial data for calculating the relative accident rates in the Republic of Uzbekistan. The data were obtained from the author's early studies [11].

Table 1. Initial statistical data for calculating relative accident rates in the Republic of Uzbekistan for the period 2009-2019

Years Number of RTA

Number of deaths from

RTA

Number of injured from

RTA

Population Number of cars *

2009 10 760 2 178 11 590 27 533 400 1 535 840

2010 10 705 2 163 11 549 28 001 400 1 580 112

2011 10 611 2 161 11 228 29 123 400 1 690 918

2012 10 309 2 158 10 835 29 555 400 1 728 867

2013 10 245 2 274 10 377 29 993 500 1 840 012

2014 10 200 2 304 10 298 30 492 800 1 946 130

2015 10 164 2 444 10 035 31 022 500 2 109 185

2016 10 212 2 496 9 845 31 575 300 2 191 231

2017 10 044 2 473 9 637 32 120 500 2 273 419

2018 8 990 2 262 8 458 32 656 700 2 440 276

2019 8 588 2 096 7 943 33 255 500 3 156 149

*- Statistics on the number of vehicles owned by individuals in the Republic of Uzbekistan

Table 2. Results of calculations of Uzbekistan indicators for the period 2009-2019 Years

Transport risk (relative to the number of

deaths)

Transport risk (relative to the number of

accidents)

Social risk

Severity of consequences

2009 14.2 70.1 7.9 15.8

2010 13.7 67.7 7.7 15.8

2011 12.8 62.8 7.4 16.1

2012 12.5 59.6 7.3 16.6

2013 12.4 55.7 7.6 18.0

2014 11.8 52.4 7.6 18.3

2015 11.6 48.2 7.9 19.6

2016 11.4 46.6 7.9 20.2

2017 10.9 44.2 7.7 20.4

2018 9.3 36.8 6.9 21.1

2019 6.6 27.2 6.3 20.9

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Table 2 shows the results for three indicators of accidents, such as traffic risk, social risk and the severity of the consequences of an accident, calculated according to the above (2)-(5) formulas and presented by years (from 2009 to 2019).

Figure 1 shows a graph of accident rates in the Republic of Uzbekistan from 2009 to 20019 by types of risks (transport, social) and by severity of consequences.

Figure 1. Accident rates in the Republic of Uzbekistan: 1-Transport risk (relative to the number of accidents); 2-The severity of the consequences; 3- Transport risk (relative to the number of death); 4-

Social risk

From Figure 1, we can conclude that over the course of 11 years, the transport risk in Uzbekistan has been decreasing relative to the number of accidents. Compared to 2009, in 2019 the relative indicator of transport risk decreased by 38%. This indicator came as a result of a decrease in the number of accidents and an increase in the number of cars throughout the region of the country. And also, the relative indicator of transport risk in relation to the number of the dead also tends to decrease and amounts to 6.6 for 2019. The social risk indicator is 6.3 (2019), while in 2009 it was 7.9 and this indicator has improved by 21%. The severity of the consequences of road accidents has remained at a high level for 11 years and continues to increase. On average, 20-21 people fall victim out of 100 in road accidents. That is, 1 out of 5 people die as a result of an accident. And developed countries (like Germany) 20 years ago had an indicator of 1.4 [12].

Figure 2. Accident rates in Bukhara: 1-Transport risk (relative to the number of accidents); 2-The severity of the consequences; 3- Transport risk (relative to the number of death); 4-Social risk

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The initial data for calculating the relative accident rates in Bukhara are presented, as well as the results for three accident indicators, such as transport risk, social risk and the severity of the consequences of an accident, calculated according to the above (2)-(5) formulas and presented by years (2009-2019).

From Figure 2, we can conclude that from 2009 to 2014 in Bukhara, the transport risk decreases relative to the number of accidents. Since 2015, the indicator has progressively decreased and commence growing again. Compared to 2009, in 2019 the relative indicator of transport risk is reduced by 30%. This figure was reached as a result of an increase in the number of accidents. And also, the relative indicator of transport risk in relation to the number of the dead also tends to decrease and amounts to 4.9 for 2019. The social risk indicator is 4.6 (2019), while in 2009 it was 5.7 and this indicator improves by 20%. The severity of the consequences of road accidents has remained at a high level for 11 years and continues to maintain its position, on average 19-20 people fall victim out of 100 in road accidents. That is, 1 out of 5 people fall victim to accident.

Table 3. Initial statistical data for calculating relative accident rates in Samarkand for the period 2009- 2019

Years Number of RTA

RTA

Population Number of cars

2009 823 227 784 3061600 111274

2010 785 232 719 3119000 136821

2011 784 241 699 3270800 162368

2012 765 232 698 3326200 172446

2013 791 252 709 3380900 197480

2014 806 258 708 3445600 224621

2015 876 280 765 3514800 273560

2016 926 298 805 3583900 275273

2017 974 309 862 3651700 277520

2018 892 289 758 3720100 295793

2019 851 272 729 3798900 314066

Figure 3. Accident rates in Samarkand: 1-Transport risk (relative to the number of accidents); 2-The severity of the consequences; 3- Transport risk (relative to the number of death); 4-Social risk

When analyzing the relative indicators in Samarkand, it turned out that the indicator of the severity of the consequences of road accidents increases over the years, although other indicators, such as transport risk and social risk, tend to decrease (Figure 3).

Table 4 presents the initial data for calculating the relative accident rates Fergana

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Table 4. Initial statistical data for calculating relative accident rates in Fergana for the period 2009- 2019

Years Number of RTA

RTA

Population Number of cars

2009 1082 132 1095 3022100 142396

2010 1080 132 1086 3074600 154857

2011 1079 162 1074 3229200 167318

2012 1078 200 1033 3280800 181012

2013 1077 262 941 3329700 208556

2014 1086 270 939 3386500 221346

2015 1086 287 937 3444900 232329

2016 1110 275 961 3505300 232997

2017 1071 271 951 3564800 236502

2018 1026 242 894 3620200 242483

2019 983 230 842 3683300 248464

Figure 4. Accident rates in Fergana: 1-Transport risk (relative to the number of accidents); 2-The severity of the consequences; 3- Transport risk (relative to the number of death); 4-Social risk

The situation in Fergana differs from the two regions considered. For all parameters, the relative indicators of the state of road safety are increasing, except for the transport risk relative to the number of accidents (Figure 4). If we take into account that from 2009 to 2019, the transport risk (relative to the number of accidents) decreased by 48%, then in 2019 to maintain the indicator relative to the number of deaths in 2009, that is, 9.3%. Indicators of social risk and severity of consequences are increased by 30% and, respectively, by 50%.

4. Conclusions

Thus, we can conclude that although according to statistics, the number of road accidents decreases every year, the severity of the consequences of road accidents, where an average of 2 thousand people fall victim to car accidents throughout the Republic, is relevant, although the author is very skeptical about these data.

Due to its incorporation into the former Soviet Union, Uzbekistan has inherited a complex hierarchical planning system and urban planning is highly centralized. Design and planning documentation has a mostly pyramidal hierarchical structure, starting from the General Settlement Scheme and up to territorial planning schemes and master plans for individual settlements [13]. The road network of the Republic of Uzbekistan has been created for decades and it takes time and significant investments to change it. The structure and length of the road network of large cities such as Samarkand, Bukhara and Fergana and all others were created on the basis of master plans of cities approved by the gover nment

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of the republic, focused on a certain level of motorization. For a long time in our country, priority in the development of transport services was given to public passenger transport, and the level of motorization of up to 120-180 cars per 1 thousand inhabitants was taken as the calculated level for cities. The entire transport infrastructure was created for this level of motorization, while at present the level of motorization of the city is already 74 cars per 1 thousand inhabitants, and in the largest cities 143 cars and continues to grow continuously.

There is an urgent need to take additional measures to ensure the safety of the most vulnerable category of road users - pedestrians, since in the republic this indicator is in first place in terms of the number of accidents, and in terms of traffic violations in third place.

Thus, the deterioration of road safety on the roads of the Republic of Uzbekistan is determined by the following factors:

• Increasing population in large cities of the republic;

• Increased mobility of the population and vehicles;

• The current level of urban road network does not meet modern needs;

• Public transport is not developed in large cities except Tashkent.

• The transport planning of large cities, the traffic capacity of the road network and especially the state of car parks require a scientific solution;

• Lack of information content on highways and city streets;

• Lack of “road ethics” among drivers.

• Since the car market of the republic is not “full”, it is planned to continue increasing the number of cars in the country.

The consequence of the above actions (factors) is an increase in traffic intensity, deterioration of traffic conditions, traffic jams, traffic conflicts and, as a result, an increase in the number of accidents. The pace of development of motorization in Uzbekistan and the severity of transport problems in large cities of the republic are such that there is an objective need to form a scientifically based transport policy aimed at improving traffic conditions.

And also, we would like to note the fact that the lack of information on detailed statistics of road accidents in the republic in open sources does not allow us to explore the problems of ensuring traffic safety in a comprehensive format and does not allow science to develop in this area.

Acknowledgments

This work was supported by the Ministry of Innovative Development of the Republic of Uzbekistan under grant IZ-2020022810 - Development of "Safe Road" software.

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