WILL ARABIA BECOME GREEN AGAIN? A GEOLOGICAL & METEOROLOGICAL APPROACH TO CONFIRMING PROPHETIC HADITH

* Corresponding author, email:isbram@geodin.net

10.22373/jiif.v23i2.17063

.

WILL ARABIA BECOME GREEN AGAIN? A GEOLOGICAL &

METEOROLOGICAL APPROACH TO CONFIRMING PROPHETIC HADITH

Isbram Ginanjar Hikmy

Geodynamics Research Group; Bandung Institute of Technology (ITB), Indonesia e-mail: isbram@geodin.net

Rangga Tri Nugraha

Institute of International, Political, and Regional Studies; Corvinus University of Budapest, Hungary

e-mail: ranggartn@gmail.com

Abstract

As a Muslim, the guidance used in worship comes from the Quran and Hadiths. One of the authentic Hadiths by Muslim states that Arabia will turn green again. This research aims to explain the greening of Arabia in the past and future perspectives from a geological and meteorological point of view. The method used in this study is a review study, combining the theory of plate tectonics on the Arabian Plate and the meteorological cycles that will occur in the future using the theory of natural radiative forcing in climate change. Discoveries of mollusks and fossils that lived in water in hot deserts provide evidence of past wet conditions before it turned hot again. There have been 18 warm climate cycles and 17 climate cycles since 5.3 million years ago.

The results of this research indicate that Arabia will turn green again, both from a geological and meteorological approach. The geological approach estimates that Arabia will turn green again in approximately ~25 million years, while the meteorological approach suggests at least 13,000 years in the future when the Earth reaches its opposite precession peak. The influence of meteorological cycle periods is shorter compared to the long-term effects of plate movements. The possibility of Arabia turning green in the future is indeed true, in line with the statements of the Prophet's Hadith.

Keywords: Arabian Plate; climate change; green Arabia; plate tectonics;

precession; prophetic hadith.

Abstrak

Sebagai Muslim, petunjuk yang digunakan berasal dari Alquran dan hadits. Salah satu hadits shahih Muslim mengatakan bahwa Arabia akan berubah menjadi hijau kembali. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menjelaskan hijaunya Arabia pada masa lalu dan masa yang akan datang dari sudut pandang geologi dan meteorology. Metode yang digunakan pada studi ini adalah review study, menggabungkan antara teori tektonik lempeng pada Lempeng Arabia dan siklus meteorologi yang akan tterjadi di masa depan menggunkan teori natural raditive forcing pada perubahan iklim.

Penemuan moluska dan fosil yang hidup di air pada gurun yang panas membuktikan adanya kondisi basah pada masa lalu sebelum berubah menjadi panas kembali.

Terdapat 18 kali siklus iklim hangat dan 17 kali siklus iklim sejak 5,3 juta tahun yang lalu. Hasil dari penelitian ini adalah Arabia akan kembali menghijau baik dari

Citation: Hikmy, Isbram Ginanjar and Rangga Tri Nugraha. “Will Arabia Become Green Again? A Geological & Meteorological Approach to Confirming Prophetic Hadith.” Jurnal Ilmiah Islam Futura 23, no. 2 (2023): 235-262.

pendekatan geologi dan meteorologi. Perhitungan dari pendekatan geologi menghasilkan sekitar ~25 juta tahun yang akan datang Arabia akan menghijau kembali sementara itu pendekatan meteorologi menghasilkan seidaknya 13.000 tahun yang akan datang saat bumi mencapai puncak presesi yang berlawanan. Pengaruh periode siklus meteorologi lebih pendek daripada pengaruh dari pergerakan lempeng yang terlalu lama. Kemungkinan hijaunya Arabia di masa depan memang benar adanya, sejalan dengan pernyataan hadits nabi.

Kata Kunci: Lempeng Arabia; perubahan iklim; hijaunya Arabia; tektonik lempeng;

presesi; hadts nabi.

ﺺﻠﺨﺘﺴﻣ

،ﻢﻠﺴﻤﻛ ﰐ

ﻪﻴﺟﻮﺘﻟا مﺪﺨﺘﺴﳌا ﰲ ةدﺎﺒﻌﻟا ﻦﻣ نآﺮﻘﻟا ﺚﻳدﺎﺣﻷاو ﺔﻳﻮﺒﻨﻟا

. ةﺪﺣاو ﻦﻣ ﺚﻳدﺎﺣﻷا ﺔﻳﻮﺒﻨﻟا

ﺔﺤﻴﺤﺼﻟا ﺔﻳوﺮﳌا ﰲ

ﺢﻴﺤﺻ ﻢﻠﺴﻣ لﻮﻘﺗ نإ ةﺮﻳﺰﳉا ﺔﻴﺑﺮﻌﻟا دﻮﻌﺘﺳ ﺎ ﻮﻠﻟ ﺮﻀﺧﻷا ةﺮﻣ ىﺮﺧأ . فﺪ ﻩﺬﻫ ﺔﺳارﺪﻟا ﱃإ حﺮﺷ ةدﻮﻋ ةﺮﻳﺰﳉا ﺔﻴﺑﺮﻌﻟا ﱃإ

نﻮﻠﻟا ﺮﻀﺧﻷا ﻦﻣ رﻮﻈﻨﻣ ﻲﺟﻮﻟﻮﻴﺟ يﻮﺟو ٍضﺎﻣ ﻲﻠﺒﻘﺘﺴﻣو . ﺔﻘﻳﺮﻄﻟاو ﺔﻣﺪﺨﺘﺴﳌا ﰲ

ﻩﺬﻫ ﺔﺳارﺪﻟا ﻲﻫ ﺔﺳارد

،ﺔﻴﺿاﺮﻌﺘﺳا ﻊﻤﲡ

ﲔﺑ ﺔﻳﺮﻈﻧ ﺢﺋﺎﻔﺼﻟا ﺔﻴﻧﻮﺘﻜﺘﻟا ﺔﺤﻴﻔﺼﻠﻟ ﺔﻴﺑﺮﻌﻟا تارودو دﺎﺻرﻷا ﺔﻳﻮﳉا ﱵﻟا ثﺪﺤﺘﺳ ﰲ ﻞﺒﻘﺘﺴﳌا ماﺪﺨﺘﺳ ﺔﻳﺮﻈﻧ ةﻮﻘﻟا

ﺔﻴﻋﺎﻌﺷﻹا ﺔﻴﻌﻴﺒﻄﻟا ﰲ ﲑﻐﺗ خﺎﻨﳌا . تﺎﻓﺎﺸﺘﻛا رﺎﶈا ﲑﻓﺎﺣﻷاو ﱵﻟا ﺖﺷﺎﻋ ﰲ ﻩﺎﻴﳌا ﰲ ىرﺎﺤﺼﻟا ةرﺎﳊا مﺪﻘﺗ ًﻼﻴﻟد ﻰﻠﻋ فوﺮﻈﻟا

ﺔﻠﻠﺒﳌا ﰲ ﻲﺿﺎﳌا ﻞﺒﻗ نأ ﺢﺒﺼﺗ ةرﺎﺣ ةﺮﻣ ىﺮﺧأ . كﺎﻨﻫ ١٨ ةرود ﺔﻴﺧﺎﻨﻣ ﺔﺌﻓاد و ١٧ ةرود ﺔﻴﺧﺎﻨﻣ ﺬﻨﻣ ٥.٣ نﻮﻴﻠﻣ ﺔﻨﺳ ﺖﻀﻣ .

ﺞﺋﺎﺘﻧ ﻩﺬﻫ ﺔﺳارﺪﻟا ﲑﺸﺗ ﱃإ نأ ةﺮﻳﺰﳉا ﺔﻴﺑﺮﻌﻟا دﻮﻌﺘﺳ ﺎ ﻮﻠﻟ ﺮﻀﺧﻷا ةﺮﻣ

،ىﺮﺧأ ءاﻮﺳ ﻦﻣ ﺔﻴﺣﺎﻨﻟا ﺔﻴﺟﻮﻟﻮﻴﳉا وأ ﺔﻳﻮﳉا . ﺮﻳﺪﻘﺗ

ﺞﻬﻨﻟا ﻲﺟﻮﻟﻮﻴﳉا ﲑﺸﻳ ﱃإ نأ ةﺮﻳﺰﳉا ﺔﻴﺑﺮﻌﻟا دﻮﻌﺘﺳ ﺎ ﻮﻠﻟ ﺮﻀﺧﻷا ﰲ ﱄاﻮﺣ ٢٥ نﻮﻴﻠﻣ ﺔﻨﺳ

،ﺔﻣدﺎﻗ ﺎﻤﻨﻴﺑ ﲑﺸﻳ ﺞﻬﻨﻟا يﻮﳉا ﱃإ

ﺎﻣ ﻻ ﻞﻘﻳ ﻦﻋ ١٣٠٠٠ ﺔﻨﺳ ﰲ ﻞﺒﻘﺘﺴﳌا ﺎﻣﺪﻨﻋ ﻞﺼﺗ ضرﻷا ﱃإ ةورذ نﺎﻗﻮﻄﻟا ﺲﻛﺎﻌﳌا . ﲑﺛ تاﱰﻓ تارود دﺎﺻرﻷا ﺔﻳﻮﳉا

ﺮﺼﻗأ ﺔﻧرﺎﻘﻣ تاﲑﺛﺄﺘﺑ تﺎﻛﺮﳊا ﺔﻠﻳﻮﻄﻟا ﺪﻣﻷا ﺢﺋﺎﻔﺼﻠﻟ . ﺔﻴﻧﺎﻜﻣإ ةدﻮﻋ ةﺮﻳﺰﳉا ﺔﻴﺑﺮﻌﻟا ﺎ ﻮﻠﻟ ﺮﻀﺧﻷا ﰲ ﺐﻘﺘﺴﳌا

:ﺔﻴﺴﺋﺮﻟا تﺎﻤﻠﻜﻟا ﺔﻴﺑﺮﻌﻟا ةﺮﻳﺰﳉا ﻪﺒﺷ ةﺮﻀﺧ

; خﺎﻨﳌا تارود

; ﺔﻳﻮﳉا دﺎﺻرﻷا

; ﺖﻴﻠﺑ نﺎﻴﺑارأ

; ﺔﻴﺟﻮﻟﻮﻴﳉا ﺎﻜﻴﻣﺎﻨﻳﺪﻟا .

A. INTRODUCTION

In Islam, there are six pillars of faith that must be believed by a believer. They are faith in Allah, His angels, His messengers, His holy books, the Judgment Day itself, and the latest is qodho and qadar. All of them are to be discussed in parallel. In this article, we will discuss one of these pillars: the Judgment Day or the Day or The Last Hour. The Day is broadly mentioned in the Holy Qur’an and Hadith as guidelines for Muslims to have faith in the future. There are many signs that are revealed and exist before the Day, according to those guidelines. One trusted Hadith coming from Imam Muslim states:

،ُبﻮُﻘْﻌَـﻳ ﺎَﻨَـﺛﱠﺪَﺣ ،ٍﺪﻴِﻌَﺳ ُﻦْﺑ ُﺔَﺒْـﻴَـﺘُـﻗ ﺎَﻨَـﺛﱠﺪَﺣَو -

ﱡيِرﺎَﻘْﻟا ِﻦَْﲪﱠﺮﻟا ِﺪْﺒَﻋ ُﻦْﺑا َﻮُﻫَو -

ْيَﺮُﻫ ِﰊَأ ْﻦَﻋ ،ِﻪﻴِﺑَأ ْﻦَﻋ ، ٍﻞْﻴَﻬُﺳ ْﻦَﻋ ِﱠ ا َلﻮُﺳَر ﱠنَأ ،َةَر

َلﺎَﻗ ﷺ

"

َـﻳ اًﺪَﺣَأ ُﺪَِﳚ َﻼَﻓ ِﻪِﻟﺎَﻣ ِةﺎَﻛَﺰِﺑ ُﻞُﺟﱠﺮﻟا َجُﺮَْﳜ ﱠﱴَﺣ َﺾﻴِﻔَﻳَو ُلﺎَﻤْﻟا َﺮُـﺜْﻜَﻳ ﱠﱴَﺣ ُﺔَﻋﺎﱠﺴﻟا ُمﻮُﻘَـﺗ َﻻ ِبَﺮَﻌْﻟا ُضْرَأ َدﻮُﻌَـﺗ ﱠﱴَﺣَو ُﻪْﻨِﻣ ﺎَﻬُﻠَـﺒْﻘ

اًرﺎَﻬْـﻧَأَو ﺎًﺟوُﺮُﻣ

"

.

“Abu Huraira reported Allah's Messenger (way peace be upon him) as saying: The Last Hour will not come before wealth becomes abundant and overflowing, so much so that a

Vol. 23. No. 2, August 2023 |237 man takes Zakat out of his property and cannot find anyone to accept it from him and till the land of Arabia reverts to meadows and rivers.”[Narrated from Abu Hurayrah (may Allah be pleased with him), Muslim (157)] it quoted in hadith (saying of Prophet Muhammad – Peace be Upon Him) sahiih, among the major sign of the Day of Judgement.

The Hadith refers to Muslim, who is a member of the seven reliable Hadith narrators for Muslims. It is clear that the Day of Judgement is a day that will happen in the future, as stated in the Holy Quran, Surah Ali-Imran verses 87: "Allah, there is no god but He – He will most certainly gather you together on the resurrection day, there is no doubt in it; and who is more true in word than Allah?" and other Surahs and verses. Stowasser¹ said there is an apocalyptic edge to some of the Qur'anic revelations, especially the Meccan revelations, when they expound that the end is near according to the Holy Quran. It is stated several times in the Holy Quran, for example: "The Hour has drawn near, and the moon has been cleft asunder" (the people of Makkah requested Prophet Muhammad SAW to show them a miracle, so he showed them the splitting of the moon), Surah Al Qamar 54 verse 1. However, only God has knowledge about the hour, as stated in the Holy Quran: "They ask you, [O Muhammad], about the Hour: when is its arrival? Say, 'Its knowledge is only with my Lord. None will reveal its time except Him. It lays heavily upon the heavens and the earth. It will not come upon you except unexpectedly.' They ask you as if you are familiar with it. Say, 'Its knowledge is only with Allah, but most of the people do not know'" (Surah A'raf 7 verses 187). Based on this background, there is no reason for Muslims to deny the existence of the Hour. The issue is that we only know the signs of the Hour, and it is coming closer according to the Holy Quran.

In this article, we focus on the indicator of the greenery of Arabia mentioned in the hadith in the first paragraph. Our focus is based on natural phenomena that drive changes in landmass. The hadith explicitly states that the changing landmass of Arabia will return to being green. To explore this statement, we approach it from two perspectives of natural sciences, namely geological and meteorological features. Some scholars have written articles about the past greenery of Arabia, but they have excluded the hadith and did not integrate it.

Therefore, we integrate insights from these natural sciences and the hadith to uncover the most likely reasons why Arabia will become green in the future.

This article is a review study that examines the movement of the Arabian Plate towards north in a counter-clockwise rotation, which will later affect its latitude position. The new latitude position will change the regional climate, directly influencing the thriving of

1Barbara Freyer Stowasser, “The End Is Near: Minor and Major Signs of the Hour in Islamic Texts and Contexts,” n.d.

plants due to the integration of weather, humidity, soil water content, and other bio-chemical processes that lead to changes in landmass. On the other hand, we also consider meteorological climate cycles that affect Arabia and cause landmass changes over relatively short periods. Through this article, we aim to draw a conclusion that proves the hadith using two different perspectives and determine which one is more favorable. We also assess the probability of when the Arabian Peninsula will become meadows with rivers flowing on the landmass, using geology and meteorological approaches.

Climate change is a significant factor that can rapidly alter landmasses worldwide, including the Arabian Plate. The amount of specific greenhouse gases can either decrease or increase temperatures, leading to changes in the landmass of different regions. Climate change is a result of radiative forcing (RF), which represents the net energy balance of the Earth's system between incoming and outgoing energy. This energy can come from the sun and the Earth itself. An imbalance in the incoming and outgoing energy creates radiative forcing that affects the climate system. Positive radiative forcing occurs when incoming energy is greater than outgoing energy, resulting in heating of the Earth, while negative radiative forcing occurs when outgoing energy is greater than incoming energy, leading to cooling of the Earth.

RF is expressed in watts per square meter over an average period of time. Although it is usually difficult to observe, calculated RF provides a simple quantitative basis for comparing aspects of the potential climate response to different factors, especially global mean temperature. Therefore, it is widely used in the scientific community². However, an alternative definition of RF is the change in net downward radiative flux at the tropopause, considering the readjustment of stratospheric temperatures to radiative equilibrium while holding surface and tropospheric temperatures and state variables such as water vapor and cloud cover fixed at their unperturbed values³. In simpler terms, solar irradiation can be considered the main player in measuring the flux value.

RF can be classified into two sub-classes: Anthropogenic Radiative Forcing and Natural Radiative Forcing. Anthropogenic Radiative Forcing is driven by human activities, such as the increased amount of carbon dioxide, carbon monoxide, methane, nitrogen oxide, and other chemical formulas. Natural Radiative Forcing, on the other hand, is driven by natural activities including volcanic eruptions, asteroids, and sun-earth alignments In this article, we focus solely on Natural RF, which will affect the climate cycle regardless of any

2Intergovernmental Panel On Climate Change, ed., “Anthropogenic and Natural Radiative Forcing,” in Climate Change 2013 – The Physical Science Basis, 1st ed. (Cambridge University Press, 2014), 659–740, https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9781107415324.018.

3Intergovernmental Panel On Climate Change.

Vol. 23. No. 2, August 2023 |239 human interruption based on previous research by Lourens⁴, Jalihal⁵, Caccamo & Magazu⁶, and Pokras⁷. This limitation is based on the consideration that if Anthropogenic RF causes an abrupt change in the climate cycle, it could be resolved as soon as possible due to dynamic human behavior.

Natural RF is mainly measured through volcanic eruptions and solar irradiance, while the impact of asteroids is excluded due to the high uncertainty surrounding their effects.

Volcanic eruptions, which release a significant amount of sulfur dioxide into the atmosphere, are a well-known natural cause of climate change that can last for years or even decades. One of the most notable climate changes caused by a volcanic eruption occurred in 1815 following the eruption of Mount Tambora. The eruption emitted 60 to 80 megatons of SO2 to the stratosphere (44 km high)⁸. The spread of SO2 across the tropics and its oxidation to form H2SO4, known as sulfate aerosols, blocked sunlight from reaching the Earth's surface and caused global effects. The year 1816, known as the "year without summer" in Europe, and the ensuing depressed situation in Europe and epidemic disease in Bengal are examples of the impacts of the 1815 Tambora eruption.

Furthermore, the alignment of the sun and Earth, known as Milankovitch Cycles, plays a strategic role in Earth's climate. One of the clearest effects of these cycles is the occurrence of Ice Ages. Milankovitch cycles consist of eccentricity, obliquity, and precession.

Eccentricity refers to the shape of Earth's orbit, which has a cycle period of 100,000 years.

The change in Earth's orbit is influenced by the gravitational pulls of Jupiter and Saturn, resulting in different seasons in the subtropical zone. Obliquity represents the tilted angle of Earth relative to its orbital plane, ranging from 22.1 to 24.5 degrees with a cycle period of 41,000 years. This variation in tilt angle leads to differences in climate at specific latitudes, resulting in cooler summers and hotter winters or vice versa. Currently, obliquity is slowly

4Lucas J. Lourens, “The Variation of the Earth’s Movements(Orbital, Tilt, and Precession) and Climate Change,” inClimate Change (Elsevier, 2021), 583–606, https://doi.org/10.1016/B978-0-12-821575-3.00028-1.

5Chetankumar Jalihal et al., “The Response of Tropical Precipitation to Earth’s Precession: The Role of Energy Fluxes and Vertical Stability,” Climate of the Past 15, no. 2 (March 19, 2019): 449–62, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-449-2019.

6Maria Teresa Caccamo and Salvatore Magazù, “On the Breaking of the Milankovitch Cycles Triggered by Temperature Increase: The Stochastic Resonance Response,” Climate 9, no. 4 (April 18, 2021): 67, https://doi.org/10.3390/cli9040067.

7Edward M. Pokras and Alan C. Mix, “Earth’s Precession Cycle and Quaternary Climatic Change in Tropical Africa,”Nature 326, no. 6112 (April 8, 1987): 486–87, https://doi.org/10.1038/326486a0.

8 Achmad Djumarma Wirakusumah and Heryadi Rachmat, “Impact of the 1815 Tambora Eruption to Global Climate Change,” IOP Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Science 71 (June 2017): 012007, https://doi.org/10.1088/1755-1315/71/1/012007.

decreasing and will impact hotter winters for at least 9,800 years away⁹. Precession refers to the wobbling of Earth's axis of rotation caused by tidal forces from the Sun and Moon. This wobble causes Earth to bulge at the equator and affects its rotation. The current wobble leads to moderate seasonal variations in the Northern Hemisphere and more extreme seasons in the Southern Hemisphere¹⁰. Roughly 13,000 years from now, this condition will flip, resulting in more extreme seasons in the Northern Hemisphere and moderate seasons in the South.

Earth's precession is one important agent delivering sunlight to the Earth. In the Northern Hemisphere, the current movement affects less hotter summers and colder winters while the latitude remains constant. Thus, a flip in the direction of the precession angle for the next 13,000 years will obviously result in more extreme weather, including in the Saudi Arabian Peninsula. The sunlight received by Earth will affect the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), a region at a specific latitude that carries global winds and circulates hot and mild air. The position, structure, and migration of the ITCZ influence ocean-atmosphere and land-atmosphere interactions on a local scale, the circulation of the tropical oceans on a basin scale, and various features of Earth's climate on a global scale¹¹. Simply put, it leads to changes in climate and the reformation of landmasses.

Another factor that will affect solar irradiance is plate tectonics, a theory proposed by Alfred Wegener in the early 20th century known as continental drift¹². nitially, the theory was not accepted by other researchers due to the existence of another well-known theory at that time. However, decades later, most researchers admitted its validity, and it now stands as the last and strongest theory in the geological framework. The theory introduces the idea that Earth's landmasses comprise plates that move either toward or away from each other, shaping the evolution of landmasses. This has been studied by Plasienka¹³, Verstappen¹⁴, and Ziegler¹⁵. The Arabian Plate, in particular, is a counter-clockwise moving plate that had a different position relative to its current position. Although plate movements take millions of

9 Alan Buis, “Milankovitch (Orbital) Cycles and Their Role in Earth’s Climate,” February 27, 2020, https://climate.nasa.gov/news/2948/milankovitch-orbital-cycles-and-their-role-in-earths-climate.

10Buis.

11 D.E. Waliser and X. Jiang, “TROPICAL METEOROLOGY AND CLIMATE | Intertropical Convergence Zone,” in Encyclopedia of Atmospheric Sciences (Elsevier, 2015), 121–31, https://doi.org/10.1016/B978-0-12-382225-3.00417-5.

12Alfred Wegener, “Die Entstehung der Kontinente,”Geologische Rundschau 3, no. 4 (July 1912): 276–

92, https://doi.org/10.1007/BF02202896.

13D Plasienka, “Plate Tectonics and Landform Evolution,”EARTH SYSTEM: HISTORY AND NATURAL VARIABILITY Vol. II (2009).

14 Herman Th. Verstappen, “Indonesian Landforms and Plate Tectonics,” Indonesian Journal on Geoscience 5, no. 3 (September 28, 2010): 197–207, https://doi.org/10.17014/ijog.v5i3.103.

15 Martin A. Ziegler, “Late Permian to Holocene Paleofacies Evolution of the Arabian Plate and Its Hydrocarbon Occurrences,” GeoArabia 6, no. 3 (July 1, 2001): 445–504, https://doi.org/10.2113/geoarabia0603445.

Vol. 23. No. 2, August 2023 |241 years with variations in slip rates ranging from several millimeters to centimeters per annum, it is clear that the plates are indeed moving. In 1966, Wilson¹⁶, proposed the theory of the Wilson Cycle, which serves as a basic explanation for plate tectonics. It outlines the concept in which the repeated opening and closing of ocean basins along the same plate boundaries is a key process in the assembly and breakup of continents and supercontinents.¹⁷

Both the geological and meteorological approaches are explained in detail in the discussion chapter.

B. DISCUSSION

1. Regional Geology and Meteorology of Arabia

Arabia is a peninsula which considered as single plate namely Arabian Plate. Plate is a massive rock blanket liquid masses of internal earth. The position of Arabian Plate is bordered with rigorous Zagros Mountains lies to the west and vast East Africa depression along with steep Red Sea to the east. Arabian Peninsula is comprising wide of Pre-Cambrian igneous and metamorphic complex covering one third of the peninsula, then deposited thick sea- sedimentary layers (fig. 1).¹⁸

Arabian Plate interior has some of current active faults, reveal the current motion of entire plate is affected by regional stresses throughout the plate during Mesozoic and Cenozoic¹⁹ such as Najd Strike-Slip System.²⁰ Particularly for the plate borders, which actively move for different number of millimeters per year due to regional position. To the west, a northwest directional Red Sea is lying which compromised by Dead Sea Fault system²¹ and sharpen the Gulf of Aqaba. The Red Sea itself is a pull-apart-product from the African Plate and Arabian Plate, which being rotated anti-clockwise with a pole near 17^oN

16J. Tuzo Wilson, “Did the Atlantic Close and Then Re-Open?,”Nature 211, no. 5050 (August 1966):

676–81, https://doi.org/10.1038/211676a0.

17 R. W. Wilson et al., “Fifty Years of the Wilson Cycle Concept in Plate Tectonics: An Overview,”

Geological Society, London, Special Publications 470, no. 1 (January 2019): 1–17, https://doi.org/10.1144/SP470-2019-58.

18 R.W Powers et al., “Geology of the Arabian Peninsula Sedimentary Geology of Saudi Arabia,”

Professional Paper, 1966.

19Graham Brew etal., “Tectonic and Geologic Evolution of Syria,” n.d.

20Ahmed Salem and Mohammed Y. Ali, “Mapping Basement Structures in the Northwestern Offshore of Abu Dhabi from High-Resolution Aeromagnetic Data: Mapping Basement Structures,”Geophysical Prospecting 64, no. 3 (May 2016): 726–40, https://doi.org/10.1111/1365-2478.12266.

21 Sam Joffe and Zvi Garfunkel, “Plate Kinematics of the Circum Red Sea—a Re-Evaluation,”

Tectonophysics 141, no. 1–3 (September 1987): 5–22, https://doi.org/10.1016/0040-1951(87)90171-5.

latitude amidst the sea.²² To the south, trends of Gulf of Aden from west to east fence the Arabian Plate²³, along with northeastern-direction of Owens fracture zone which divided the Arabian and Indian Plate. The most eastward line of the plate is Zagros Fold-thrust Belt emerging the range of mountainous Iranian highland. All the borders are recently formed during middle and late Tertiary.²⁴

Figure 1.Arabian plate location relative to other surrounding major plates, green and dark grey indicate Precambrian Arabian Shield and Cenozoic Basalt.²⁵

Positioned latitude 12.5^o to 37.5^o, the peninsula has different types of regional climates. The climate of Arabia is mainly hyper-arid and arid which lead to wide desert cover most of region, and famous as subtropical desert belt. Yet, moist is easily find in the north where latitude is getting higher and temperature is getting colder. These types of climates comply of changing latitudes. Tropical climate will affect the equatorial and surrounding area both up and down latitudes. This climate has highest precipitation up to 59 inches per annum caused most of tropical forest and varies of plant are very-well thriving. Getting latitude higher for about 20^oto 30^o, climate become drier and precipitation rate is getting lower. This dry climate mostly has lower moisture and water vapor because of rapid evaporation than the smaller latitude. However, plants become more restricted to thrive due to lack of water. The dry climate is the most suitable desert to grow up. Go far from the equator, temperate climate

22 Robert Reilinger and Simon McClusky, “Nubia-Arabia-Eurasia Plate Motions and the Dynamics of Mediterranean and Middle East Tectonics: Mediterranean and Middle East Geodynamics,”Geophysical Journal International 186, no. 3 (September 2011): 971–79, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-246X.2011.05133.x.

23Abdullah ArRajehi et al., “Geodetic Constraints on Present-Day Motion of the Arabian Plate: Implications for Red Sea and Gulf of Aden Rifting,”Tectonics 29, no. 3 (2010): 1–10, https://doi.org/10.1029/2009TC002482.

24 A.S. Alsharhan and A.E.M. Nairn, “The Geological Histroy and Structural Elements of the Middle East,” in Sedimentary Basins and Petroleum Geology of the Middle East (Elsevier, 2003), 15–63, https://doi.org/10.1016/B978-044482465-3/50003-6.

25 Peter R. Johnson and Beraki Woldehaimanot, “Development of the Arabian-Nubian Shield:

Perspectives on Accretion and Deformation in the Northern East African Orogen and the Assembly of Gondwana,” Geological Society, London, Special Publications 206, no. 1 (January 2003): 289–325, https://doi.org/10.1144/GSL.SP.2003.206.01.15.

Vol. 23. No. 2, August 2023 |243 take shape on higher latitude from dry climate. This zone is typically ranging from 30^oto 50^o and has humid and warm summer. The precipitation relatively higher than dry climate. Hence, region which lie on these latitudes have more type of plants. The rest climates are continental and polar climate which have higher latitude position respectively (fig. 2).

Figure 2.A vertical cross section of ideally global climate from North to South Pole.

The upwelling and downwelling patterns are influencing region precipitation and its cloud development²⁶.

The tropical region carries winds to converge near the equator and surrounding areas mentioned as Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ)²⁷. This type of wind produces rising air then make up abundant tower clouds. Consequently, where the cloud is being condensed at the high elevation its temperature decrease, high amount of rainfall will follow throughout a year.

Off the equator, near latitude 30^o, the subsidence air of the subtropical highs produces a “dry belt” around the globe, although not all of earth region will have 30^odesert. The Arabian Desert of Arabia which we studied and the Australian Desert of the Greater Land of Australia lie within this belt. In these regions, precipitation is limited during a year with humidity is lower than equators tropical climate, and rain is scarcely falling, the arid region is emerged and advanced to be a desert (fig. 3). However, desert also can be constructed by topography due to forcing air rise along their windward slopes called orographic uplift. Therefore, the windward side of mountains tends to be wet. As air descends and warms along the leeward side, there is less likelihood of clouds and precipitation. Thus, the leeward or downwind side of mountains tends to be dry called rain shadow²⁸. Two types of desert genesis answer the vast and arid Arabian Desert covering most of the peninsula. It also will answer why the Hijaz and Asir mountains are considered as favorable destination during hot summer in the Arabia will reveal in this article.

26C. Donald Ahrens and Robert Henson, Meteorology Today: An Introduction to Weather, Climate, and the Environment, Twelfth edition (Boston, MA: Cengage, 2019).

27Ahrens and Henson.

28Ahrens and Henson.

Desert has actually myriad term based on several sources. Edgell²⁹ defined desert as a temperate region that receives an average annual rainfall of less than 250 mm a year, generally infrequent, where evaporation exceeds precipitation. The Arabian Desert southernmost part located in Yemen, on the tip of peninsula facing towards Gulf of Aden. To the east, Gulf of Persia, a narrow-elongated sea fences east coast of desert and light northward of the gulf edge Biltis-Zagros Mountain Range cease the desert grains.

Figure 3.Annual global ITCZ pattern shows the southern line during winter January and northern dashed during summer July³⁰. Northern dashed line is crossing southern of Arabian Peninsula marked by red box.

Precipitation threshold were hyper-arid region when rainfall less than 25 mm, arid when rainfall in between 25 to 200 mm and, semi-arid when it excess 200 mm and up to 500 m.³¹ Interestingly, almost all part of Arabian peninsulas fits these parameters. Annual precipitation of Arabian Peninsula is generally much lower than 300 mm, except southwestern region of Raymah -a southern region of the Capitol Sana’a and northern-center peninsula of Hafar Al Batin whose 300 mm to maximum 600 mm³² with exceptionally for Lebanon, Palestine and Syiria. Yet the coverage of peninsula’s desert only less of one-third of sand dunes, rest of it comprise arid plains, rocky deserts, clay flats, and lesser salt flats.³³ According to Koppen-Geiger climate classification, the peninsula and adjacent area are mostly classified as Bwh category of dry, arid, hot, low-latitude deserts. The second largest is

29H. Stewart Edgell, Arabian Deserts: Nature, Origin and Evolution (Dordrecht: Springer, 2006).

30Bernhard Weninger et al., “Neolithisation of the Aegean and Southeast Europe during the 6600–6000 CalBC Period of Rapid Climate Change,” Documenta Praehistorica 41 (December 30, 2014): 1–31, https://doi.org/10.4312/dp.41.1.

31A.T Grove, “The Geography of Semi-Arid Lands,”Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London. B, Biological Sciences 278, no. 962 (May 3, 1977): 457–75, https://doi.org/10.1098/rstb.1977.0055.

32Richard P. Jennings et al., “The Greening of Arabia: Multiple Opportunities for Human Occupation of the Arabian Peninsula during the Late Pleistocene Inferred from an Ensemble of Climate Model Simulations,”

Quaternary International 382 (September 2015): 181–99, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quaint.2015.01.006.

33Edgell, Arabian Deserts, 2006.

Vol. 23. No. 2, August 2023 |245 BSh classification fill up north part of peninsula and slope of Zagros Mountain Range. Rest of them are H points out the highland area with relatively high precipitation such as Yemen Highland and Asir Mountain, and Csa considered as mild near with Mediterannean.

Out of ITCZ of Middle East, arid weather also can be found out by presence of rain shadow. Rain shadow desert of the peninsula was found along the eastern of Precambrian metamorphic and igneous rocks complex, in the western part of Peninsula elevated from 1000 up to 4000 m above sea level. The humid and rich-water-vapor which evaporated from Red Sea in the west are transporting to the west. When the altitude getting higher throughout Hijaz, Asir and Yemen highlands, water vapor will be easily condensed and forming rainfall (fig. 4). After that, the wind will keep push upward bypassing top of the mountain range with less water content and drop to the other side. As a result, the drier wind with very less water vapor envelop leeside of the range, make up dry and arid environment which sometimes lead rain shadow desert. This scenario possibly covers small part of Arabian desert near to the northwestern-southeastern mountain range.

Figure 4.Simplified Koppen world climate classification map³⁴and Koppen-Geiger climate classification map for far future of Western Asia including Middle East.³⁵At present day the Arabian Peninsula is facing arid hot desert with a small area experiences highland climate in the southwestern tip of peninsula in Yemen and Hijaz-Asir-elongated shape highlands.

In this article, we review some scenarios how the Middle East, particularly Arabian Landmass once was used to be greeneries and lushes, then absolutely will be the same way in the future. Both geology and meteorological visions is applied to the hadith to overcome and project what will happen in the future which means more than centuries, hundred thousands of years, or even million years to go. An agent that will change the peninsula is plate motion of

34Ahrens and Henson, Meteorology Today.

35 Hylke E. Beck et al., “Present and Future Köppen-Geiger Climate Classification Maps at 1-Km Resolution,”Scientific Data 5, no. 1 (October 30, 2018): 180214, https://doi.org/10.1038/sdata.2018.214.

Arabian Plate towards anti-clockwise north³⁶ which later unraveled by Arrajehi³⁷. Besides, ancient paleo-climate and paleo-environment also take a part of shaping the peninsula being environmentally harsh. Garzanti et al³⁸ said that winds are major agent to make the dusty desert of Arabia, overlying from Oman to the south and Syiria up the north. Nevertheless, the presence of paleo-climate and paleo-environment of Arabia in the past that decayed into hydrogeological features in present day tell about waters and lithologies are connected one each other beyond surfaces.

2. Geological Approach

Using plate motion theory, Arabia will experience a change in latitude from its current position. The Arabian Plate is a puzzle piece that began separating from the African Plate during the Oligocene period.³⁹This separation is considered a special type of rifting known as the "RRR triple junction," which refers to the three directions of extensional product at the junction. A triple junction is a place where three lithospheric plates intersect and meet ⁴⁰ another boundary. These three directional separations are located in Afar, a wide depressional land in Djibouti, Africa. The motion of magmatic fluid in the convergent cell beneath the lithospheric mantle caused the African Plate to gradually separate approximately 25 million years ago⁴¹, and this process is still ongoing today. As a result, the giant African Plate separated into the Nubian Plate, which moved relatively northwest, and the Somalian block, which settled to the south⁴². The Arabian Plate itself is located east of the Nubian Plate.

The Arabian Plate has been driven away from the African Plate due to the rifting phase, which later transitioned into the spreading phase. The spreading phase is a result of the extensional regime that transformed the continental crust into oceanic crust. The distinct layer positions, with the oceanic crust always being pushed onto the continental crust, suggest a complex and ideal movement of the Arabian Plate from its ancestor. The Red Sea rift is

36Mark R. Hempton, “Constraints on Arabian Plate Motion and Extensional History of the Red Sea,”

Tectonics 6, no. 6 (December 1987): 687–705, https://doi.org/10.1029/TC006i006p00687.

37ArRajehi et al., “Geodetic Constraints on Present-Day Motion of the Arabian Plate: Implications for Red Sea and Gulf of Aden Rifting.”

38Eduardo Garzanti et al., “Provenance and Recycling of Arabian Desert Sand,” Earth-Science Reviews 120 (May 2013): 1–19, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.earscirev.2013.01.005.

39 J. M. Gaulier and P. Huchon, “Tectonic Evolution of Afar Triple Junction,” Bulletin de La Société Géologique de France 162, no. 3 (May 1, 1991): 451–64, https://doi.org/10.2113/gssgfbull.162.3.451.

40Vincent S Cronin, “Chapter 11. Types of Triple Junctions,” 2012.

41 Reilinger and McClusky, “Nubia-Arabia-Eurasia Plate Motions and the Dynamics of Mediterranean and Middle East Tectonics.”

42U. Kumar, C. P. Legendre, and B. S. Huang, “Crustal Structure and Upper Mantle Anisotropy of the Afar Triple Junction,” Earth, Planets and Space 73, no. 1 (December 2021): 166, https://doi.org/10.1186/s40623-021-01495-0.

Vol. 23. No. 2, August 2023 |247 considered the boundary between the Arabian and Nubian Plates, while the Gulf of Aden separates the Arabian and Somalian Plates.⁴³

The opening of west-east directional Gulf of Aden and northwest-southeast Red Sea indicated as soon as ~31–30 Ma⁴⁴. This continental break-up triggered the splitting among Africa and Arabia Peninsula during Early Miocene⁴⁵, or slightly earlier in the Oligocene.⁴⁶

The break-up driven plate is likely due to different vector value amidst these plates since 30-35 Ma though they were moving together within level rate of 3 cm/year at 65 Ma.⁴⁷ Even all have the equal direction to anti-clockwise northeast, it is African plate which slows its velocity during Early Oligocene. The wider plate has been reduced it to 1 cm per annum compared to the narrower Arabian plate which has constant vector value of 3 cm each year.

Latest precise geodetic study conducted by Arrajehi⁴⁸ stated that the opening Red Sea and Gulf of Aden was conformably caused by different vector rate, where the Nubia block are moving by 6.6 mm/year and Arabian Plate are sliding out by 20.6 mm/year. These differences emerged coincidently to the opening of the seas (fig. 5).

Matter of the deduction of African Plate are still in enigma.⁴⁹However, there are some reasons to reveal this high-impact-phenomenon. Reilinger & McClusky⁵⁰ summarized (1) pulling of the trailing plate towards the trench due to the sinking of the ocean lithosphere along subduction zones, (2) extension of the overriding plate due to migration of the trench towards the subducting plate called slab rollback, (3) pushing of the plate along mid-ocean ridges due to gravitational sliding of the plate down the oceanic isotherm defining the oceanic lithosphere–asthenosphere boundary, (4) traction forces due to relative motion between the lithosphere and underlying asthenosphere, (5) retarding forces due to continent–continent collision and (6) forces due to friction along strike-slip boundaries (i.e. transform faults).

43 William Bosworth, Philippe Huchon, and Ken McClay, “The Red Sea and Gulf of Aden Basins,”

Journal of African Earth Sciences 43, no. 1–3 (October 2005): 334–78, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jafrearsci.2005.07.020.

44William Bosworth and Daniel F. Stockli, “Early Magmatism in the Greater Red Sea Rift: Timing and Significance,” ed. Ali Polat, Canadian Journal of Earth Sciences 53, no. 11 (November 2016): 1158–76, https://doi.org/10.1139/cjes-2016-0019.

45Joffe and Garfunkel, “Plate Kinematics of the Circum Red Sea—a Re-Evaluation.”

46 N. Bellahsen et al., “Why Did Arabia Separate from Africa? Insights from 3-D Laboratory Experiments,” Earth and Planetary Science Letters 216, no. 3 (November 2003): 365–81, https://doi.org/10.1016/S0012-821X(03)00516-8.

47 J Dercourt et al., Atlas Peri-Tethys, Paleogeographical Maps. (Paris: Commission for the Geologic Map of the World, 2000).

48ArRajehi et al., “Geodetic Constraints on Present-Day Motion of the Arabian Plate: Implications for Red Sea and Gulf of Aden Rifting.”

49Bellahsen et al., “Why Did Arabia Separate from Africa?”

50 Reilinger and McClusky, “Nubia-Arabia-Eurasia Plate Motions and the Dynamics of Mediterranean and Middle East Tectonics.”

Figure 5.Relative motion of Arabian Plate using a GPS velocity vector data.⁵¹Abbreviation: EAF, East Anatolian fault; GoS, Gulf of Suez; ATJ, Afar Triple Junction; ZFTB, Zagros fold- thrust belt; GoA, Gulf of Aden; OFZ, Owens fracture zone.

According to absolute motion of Arabian Plate, which widening up the Red Sea and narrowing Gulf of Persia, in a matter of time, the climate region will definitely change. Such as the Csa climate classification on the Palestine, Lebanon, and Syiria which affected by Mediterranean Sea. The sea is 2.5 million meter square bisects Europe and Africa but connects to western of Asia. The matter of area is having moderately wide and long sides, to optimize evaporation and water vapor content of convergence air. Tropical, mild, and moist climate regions are located near thousands of kilometer air-free above oceans. For instance, Mediterranean Sea has more than 3,700 km long and 620 km of its wide and West Indian landmass tropical region which located near the latitude of arid southern Arabian peninsulas, facing toward 2,500 km away of open Indian Ocean. It is as tropical as Yucatan Peninsula and its adjacent area likely Greater and Lesser Antilles which located at same northern latitude of Sahara and Arabian Desert. The area is amidst profoundly 5,100 km Atlantic Ocean and more than halfway of earth’s circle Pacific Ocean. In contrary, the broadest distance of Red Sea separating Africa and Arabia Landmasses is 357 km near the city of Jazan while the narrowest strait is only 28 km long in Bab al Mandab with an average about 260 km away. This gap is inadequate to make the Arabia Peninsula green, except the gap is much wider like the length of Mediterannean Sea which will take millions or even hundreds millions years to go.

51ArRajehi et al., “Geodetic Constraints on Present-Day Motion of the Arabian Plate: Implications for Red Sea and Gulf of Aden Rifting.”

Vol. 23. No. 2, August 2023 |249 3. Meteorological Approach

This approach in detail recaps paleo-climate and paleo-environment constraint. Begin with ancient Fertile Crescent, a throw-back over 6000 years ago domestication. Mesopotamia considered as the oldest farming-culture blessed by crescent shape of fertile soil. The shape is made of Tigris, Eufrat, Jordan and Nile Rivers sediment. The sediment deposited from Anatolian Highland to the north of Tigris and Eufrat, where Jordans’ upstream located on the highland of Jordan and Israel, so on with the Nile which eroded from Ethiopian Highland far to the south. River stream is an agent to picked top soil up then rushes down from the mountain and floods land. Fertile Crescent and Arabian Desert located side-by-side. In the other hand, Fertile Crescent is excluding Nile downstream of Egypt⁵² resulting the western border of crescent halted approximately in Palestinian Landform.

The presence of Fertile Crescent grew Sumerian as the earliest civilization, and this fertile land exist towards nowadays. It is neither matter of paleo-climate nor paleo- environment but river deposition of rich-organic-matter topsoil. Also the Nile watershed which has greenery landform and many cultivations, are obviously related to its alluvial deposit containing numerous minerals eroded from highland. In the same way, Arabian Desert also has its own rivers with majority of non-perennial watercourse. Nevertheless, group of water catchments in peninsula were made by Rausch et al.⁵³of Wadi Ar-Rimah and Wadi Ad- Dawasir excluding Tigris and Eufrat. These two rivers are considered as paleo-river within last thousand years, and might be full of water once hit by significant rainfalls.

Edgell⁵⁴revealed as much as 24 paleo-lakes across dry environment in the peninsula, some of captivating and famous are: Rub al Khali or called the Empty, An Nafud, and Umm as Samim paleo-lakes (fig 6). These three of paleo-lakes are containing abundant of freshwater mollusks, which formed in wetter condition than present day. Wet, humid and semi-arid conditions accommodated formation of lakes during last period. Different climate conditions of Arabian Peninsula have been majorly affected by rainfall precipitation amounts annually then extended to humidity.

52Albert T. Clay, “The So-Called Fertile Crescent and Desert Bay,” Journal of the American Oriental Society 44 (1924): 186, https://doi.org/10.2307/593554.

53Randolf Rausch et al., “The Scarp Lands of Saudi Arabia,”Arabian Journal of Geosciences, March 26, 2013, https://doi.org/10.1007/s12517-013-0918-1.

54Edgell, Arabian Deserts, 2006.

Figure 6. Arabian desert map, showing the Rub al-Khali desert⁵⁵ located in the southern part of peninsula which elvated among 500 to 1640 m above sea level.

In this paper, we will discuss deeper about Rub Al Khali which considered as the largest sand desert in the world, covers up to 560,000 km sq.⁵⁶The annual rate of precipitation in Rub al Khali merely not excesses than 40 mm reckoned data from 1960 to 2014.⁵⁷ In addition, the hottest place in peninsula also located over the Rub al Khali with more than 30 degree celcius extend northward and westward within the country.⁵⁸Following research from Matter et al.⁵⁹resulting extend the spatial coverage of evidence and show that most of the lake deposits correlate to Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 5 circa 130,000-70,000 years ago and the Early/Mid Holocene circa 11,000-5,500 years ago. MIS is a warm-cool period of earth’s paleo-climate. The evidence of past temperature, fossils of fish is supported rich and diverse⁶⁰ as well as mollusks, bivalves and grasses developed within vast intra-dunes lakes. The existence of ancient lakes in the peninsula once triggered us to review what were happened last couple thousands of years.

55 L Owen, William L. Ochsenwald, and Donald August Holm, Arabian Desert Map (Encyclopedia Britannica, n.d.), https://www.britannica.com/place/Arabian-Desert.

56Arun Kumar and Mahmoud M Abdullah, “An Overview of Origin, Morphology and Distribution of Desert Forms, Sabkhas and Playas of the Rub’ al Khali Desert of the Southern Arabian Peninsula” 4 (n.d.).

57 Hassan Basahel and Hani Mitri, “Application of Rock Mass Classification Systems to Rock Slope Stability Assessment: A Case Study,” Journal of Rock Mechanics and Geotechnical Engineering 9, no. 6 (December 2017): 993–1009, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jrmge.2017.07.007.

58Mansour Almazroui et al., “FutureChanges in Climate over the Arabian Peninsula Based on CMIP6 Multimodel Simulations,” Earth Systems and Environment 4, no. 4 (December 2020): 611–30, https://doi.org/10.1007/s41748-020-00183-5.

59Albert Matter et al., “Palaeo-Environmental Implications Derived from Lake and Sabkha Deposits of the Southern Rub’ al-Khali, Saudi Arabia and Oman,”Quaternary International 382 (September 2015): 120–31, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quaint.2014.12.029.

60Matter et al.

Vol. 23. No. 2, August 2023 |251 A time-lined chronology of Quaternary climate and events in Arabia have been unveiled by Edgell⁶¹(Table. 1). Turning back into Middle Pliocene, approximately 5.3 million age (Ma) to 3.6 Ma when well-developed drainage systems were found, as well as erosion and deposition of coarse gravels in valley fills. Followed by warm and temperate semi-arid weather until the end of Late Pliocene or 2.58 Ma marked by savannah and woodland condition. The climate fluctuations continuously happen to present day, it ranged from thousands of years to hundreds thousands of years.

Back to thousands hundreds years, the Rub al Khali provided some evidences of the living freshwater animals. Previous studies⁶² encountered widespread lacustrine mollusks over one of the driest part in the peninsula. Latter researcher used Optically Stimulated Luminescence (OSL), Thermally-transferred OSL (TT-OSL), Infrared Stimulated Luminescence (ISL), and post-IR Infrared Stimulated Luminescence (pIR-IRSL) to date back the age of its samples. The samples dug from vary thicknesses of deposits between a few decimeters and up to several meters contained Unio tigridis, Corbicula fluminalis, Melanoides tuberculatus, Biomphalaria sp. and Pirenella conica whom indicated freshwater environment⁶³(fig. 7).

61Edgell, Arabian Deserts, 2006.

62 Matter et al., “Palaeo-Environmental Implications Derived from Lake and Sabkha Deposits of the Southern Rub’ al-Khali, Saudi Arabia and Oman.”

63Matter et al.

Table 1. A chronology of Quaternary climate and events in Arabia (Revised from Edgell 1989a, 2004).

Figure 7.Mollusk fossils are discovered in the Rub al Khali. 1: Unio tigridis (l = 67 mm); 2.

Corbicula fluminalis (l = 17 mm); 3. Melanoides tuberculatus (h = 22 mm); 4.

Pirenella conica (h = 14 mm), Biomphalaria sp. (d = 13 mm).⁶⁴Abbreviation: l = length, h = height, d = diameter

64Matter et al.

GEOLOGICAL

EPOCH CHRONOLOGY IN

YEARS BP YEAR RANGE CLIMATIC PHASE CLIMATIC EVENTS IN ARABIA 0 -700 700 HYPERARID CONTINUOUS MOVEMENT OF HIGH CRESTED DUNES 700 - 1300 600 SLIGHTLY MOIST HOFUF RIVER NOTED BY YAQUT AND OTHER

GEOGRAPHERS

1300 - 1400 100 ARID DUNE MOVEMENT

1400 - 2100 700 SLIGHTLY MOIST SABEAN KINGDOM FLOURISHED AND KINGDOM OF KINDA AT QARYAT AL FAU (ANSARY 1982) 2100 - 5000 2900 HYPERARID DUNE MOVEMENT ACTIVE

5000 - 5400 400 SLIGHTLY MOIST "NEOLITHIC" CAMP RUB' AL KHALI 5400 - 5500 100 HYPERARID HIGH CRESTED DUNES, 'IROS

5500 - 11000 5500 SEMI-ARID NEOLITHIC WET PHASE, LAKES IN SW RUB' AL KHALI, FASAD POINTS

11000 - 22000 11000 HYPERARID (G) PERSIAN GULF DRY SL -130 M 22000 - 34000 12000 SEMI-ARID RUB' AL KHALI, AN NAFUD LAKES 34000 - 64000 30000 HYPERARID RUB AL KHALI & WAHIBA DUNES, OSL 64000 - 99000 35000 SEMI-ARID SINTER FORMATION SUMMAN CAVES 99000 - 115000 16000 HYPERARID RUB AL KHALI & WAHIBA DUNES, OSL 120000 - 135000 15000 SEMI-ARID GROWTH OMAN CAVES STALGMITES 135000 - 180000 45000 ARIDITY (G) WAHIBA DUNES ACTIVE, GLACIAL 180000 - 200000 20000 SEMI-ARID GROWTH OMAN CAVES STALGMITES 200000 - 210000 10000 ARIDITY MINOR COLD DRY INTERVAL 218000 - 240000 22000 SEMI-ARID WAHIBA AEOLIANITES, SW MONSOON 240000 - 280000 40000 ARIDITY ARID, COLD; SL -80M RED SEA 280000 - 295000 15000 SEMI-ARID U/Th DATES SPELEOTHEMS OMAN 295000 - 300000 5000 ARIDITY (G) MINOR COLD DDRY INTERVAL 300000 - 335000 35000 SEMI-ARID U/Th DATES, OMAN SPELEOTHEMS 335000 - 370000 35000 ARIDITY (G) ARID, COLD INTERVAL

370000 - 420000 50000 WET, SEMI-ARID LARGE ALLUVIAL FANS; SPELEOTHEMS 420000 - 460000 40000 ARIDITY (G) ARID COLD INTERVAL SL -80M RED SEA 460000 - 660000 200000 WET, SEMI-ARID WARM, WET U/Th DATES SPELEOTHEMS 660000 - 680000 20000 ARIDITY (G) DRY INTERVAL LOW DUNES

680000 - 710000 30000 SEMI-ARID EARLY ACHEULIAN

710000 - 790000 80000 ARIDITY (G) EARLY DUNES, COLD DRY INTERVAL 790000 - 868000 78000 SEMI-ARID OXYGEN ISOTOPE EVIDENCE, WARMER 868000 - 880000 12000 ARIDITY EARLIEST COLD PHASE; DUNES 880000 - 920000 40000 WARM (G) WARM DEGLACIATION ANTARCTICA 920000 - 1800000 880000 HUMID SEMI-ARID OLDUWAN TOOLS, 1Ma TO 1,4 Ma EARLY

QUATERNARY DRAINAGE LARGE ALLUVIAL FANS FORMED

LATE PLIOCENE 1800000 - 3600000 1800000 WARM TEMPERATE

SEMI-ARID SAVANNAH WOODLAND CONDITIONS

MIDDLE PLIOCENE 3600000 - 5333000 1733000 WETTER, HUMID WELL DEVELOPED DRAINAGE SYSTEMS EROSION AND DEPOSITION OF COARSE GRAVELS IN VALLEY FILLS HOLOCENE

LATE PLEISTOCENE

MIDDLE PLEISTOCENE

EARLY PLEISTOCENE

Vol. 23. No. 2, August 2023 |253 Lacustrine deposit of the Rub al Khali can be divided into three different facies –a body of rock with has specific environment deposition- with the most abundant facies is limestone facies that consists of 60 cm to 270 cm beige micrites, while the others are marl and sandy facies.⁶⁵ In addition, presence of the low quartz content signals that the dunes were stabilized by vegetation whereas the non-fossiliferous sandy facies records alternating wet-dry conditions, characterized by insect burrows.⁶⁶ The limestone facies indicate broad sediments containing calcium carbonate and somehow dolomite were deposited then lithified during specified period. Calcium carbonate and dolomite primarily can be founded within shelly organism. While marl facies is levelly equal amount of mixed clay and calcium carbonate, sandy facies is a vast sedimentary deposition of sand without any marks of other grain size and non-calcareous. Limestone and marl facies illustrate the development of water remnants abundantly, which demanded enough water table to living in.

The Rub al Khali had two wet conditions as early as 20 kilo age (ka) before present (b.p). This condition accommodated all fossils (a preserved organism within a rock), lake beds (rock layer formed from lake sediment), speleothem (cave features made from dissolve water), and pollen (ancient preserved seed plant) dating that had been collected from different paleo-lakes of inner area from the Mundafan basin and other six smaller lakes. Dating is a method to define ages of samples based on natural raadioactive decays. These fossils and beds then dated back using radiometric dating in order to get the absolute ages of the samples. It revealed that two main periods of high water table occurred in the area between 36 ka –17 ka b.p with concentration dates between 21 ka and 30 ka b.p as an older phase, and the younger one between 6 ka and 9 ka b.p which all of the phases are including late Quaternary⁶⁷. In fact, radiocarbon dates for the Late Holocene lakes, given by McClure⁶⁸on 14 samples, range from 8,800 ± 100 to 6,100 ± 70 years, except for two older dates of 11,465 ± 115 and 14,965 ± 195 years b.p. The Early Holocene lakes were temporary lakes of the playa-type, which probably received rainfall in several months of the year. They were largely restricted to inter-dune areas, bordered by vegetation of Typha and Phragmites, and remains of oryx, gazelle and Bos primigenius are present. Another latest absolute OSL dating⁶⁹ in the same Rub al Khali, that as young as 5.4 ka massive gypsum bed have deposited. It is indicating that the evaporation of

65Matter et al.

66Matter et al.

67H. A. McClure, “Radiocarbon Chronology of Late Quaternary Lakes in the Arabian Desert,” Nature 263, no. 5580 (October 1976): 755–56, https://doi.org/10.1038/263755a0.

68McClure.

69 Matter et al., “Palaeo-Environmental Implications Derived from Lake and Sabkha Deposits of the Southern Rub’ al-Khali,Saudi Arabia and Oman.”

the area extremely high during that year. From 6 ka to the present, the area has been hyper- arid, and the site of some of the world’s longest sand dunes.⁷⁰

This wet condition during Quaternary happened for several times. A comprehensive graph compares between ages in several approaches to climate condition during periods. The ages comprise absolute radiometric dating lasting to 200 ka and from MIS 6, other axe is responsible for Monsoon index, OSL of lake deposits, and global ice volume using oxygen isotope.⁷¹From the graph we can summarize that lake deposits and shells have a group of age that indicating the presence of water body within subjected peninsula. The groups of ages fitted the pattern of oxygen isotopes when global ice were soaring, giving characteristics of colder condition. In coincident, insolation difference of Monsoonal index was getting higher when the oxygen isotopes were diving deeper to minus. The colder condition decreased temperature globally whereas the monsoonal index has positive correlation to precipitation numbers. Where monsoonal index hit its peak of defined period, the global ices volume was used to follow the pattern to increase. Thus, the number of water being rainfall due to cooling temperature was increasing, made up higher water table of the Rub al Khali in particular area, which covered the entire peninsula (fig. 8).

Figure 8. Past global climate condition using comparation between global ice volume from oxygen isotopes, absolute luminescence (OSL) ages of lakes samples, and monsoon insolation difference indices⁷².

70Edgell, Arabian Deserts, 2006.

71 Matter et al., “Palaeo-Environmental Implications Derived from Lake and Sabkha Deposits of the Southern Rub’ al-Khali, Saudi Arabia and Oman.”

72Matter et al.

Vol. 23. No. 2, August 2023 |255 The blue areas indicate all events that strongly correlate to each other. Groups of absolute dating from lake beds and fossils spotted in area of blue, in coincident with events of increasing global ices volume and monsoonal index. The latest wetter condition last for approximately 5 to 10 ka b.p and it was confirmed from 6 ka to 9 ka b.p in the Mundafan Basin within Rub al Khali researched by McClure⁷³. However, on the graph is not showing an interval of 21 ka and 30 ka b.p which previously mentioned by McClure⁷⁴instead of inferred wetter condition with no evidence of fossil and lake bed records for earlier year at 50 ka to 60 ka b.p. By that means, using chronological Quaternary issued by Edgell⁷⁵ is a must to summary and predict what will happen in the future from a simple approach.

The first scenario begin with how long it takes when the Red Sea Spreading reaches minimum wide of the Sea to feed up surrounding region. Precipitation will rocket when the water amount is high, thus vast open water space is needed to accomplish this demand to thrive plants and stream rivers altogether. At least 620 km length open-sea is demanded as wide as Mediterannean Sea north-south section to construct at least mild climate. With the gap rate of the Arabian and Nubian Plate by 14 mm annually, and subtracting value in between Mediterannean and Red Sea distances is 360 km, geological measurement can be conducted simply quiet.

Dividing gap distance of 360 km and 14 mm per annum, we will have ~25 million years to go. This value is as ancient as Late Oligocene Warming Events at the southern North Sea Basin was taken during Upper Oligocene⁷⁶ on the reverse time. That fascinating time sounds impossible about human being existence to carry on since the first of human appearance at mere 11,000 years ago, though that number is sound minuscule relative to 4.54 billion years or 176.58 back-to-back times. Indeed, it is too long to assure 2,337.67 of the same Holocene including existence of us. Almost nothing to worry about but earthquakes that will hit some regions along the border plates. And note that we simply measure a chord instead of the arc vector of peninsula, resulting a less plummeted number of years.

Other abrupt change of Arabian Plate also can swipe the whole of peninsula, as if the occurrence of Arabian Shield which cover west region of peninsula. Somehow it will definitely make up the microclimate of Arab with unspecific change but it is obviously

73McClure, “Radiocarbon Chronology of Late Quaternary Lakes in the Arabian Desert.”

74McClure.

75Edgell, Arabian Deserts, 2006.

76E. De Man and S. Van Simaeys, “Late Oligocene Warming Event in the Southern North Sea Basin:

Benthic Foraminifera as Paleotemperature Proxies,” Netherlands Journal of Geosciences - Geologie En Mijnbouw 83, no. 3 (September 2004): 227–39, https://doi.org/10.1017/S0016774600020291.