Book Actuarial Mathematics for Life Contingent Risks

(1)

(2)

(3)

Actuarial Mathematics for Life Contingent Risks

The substantially updated third edition of the popularActuarial Mathematics for Life Contingent Risksis suitable for advanced undergraduate and graduate students of actuarial science, for trainee actuaries preparing for professional actuarial examinations, and for life insurance practitioners who wish to increase or update their technical knowledge. The authors provide intuitive explanations alongside mathematical theory, equipping readers to understand the material in sufﬁcient depth to apply it in real world situations and to adapt their results in a changing insurance environment. Topics include modern actuarial paradigms, such as multiple state models, cash ﬂow projection methods and option theory, all of which are required for managing the increasingly complex range of contemporary long-term insurance products.

Numerous exam-style questions allow readers to prepare for traditional professional actuarial exams, and extensive use of Excel ensures that readers are ready for modern, Excel-based exams and for the actuarial work environment. The Solutions Manual (ISBN 9781108747615), available for separate purchase, provides detailed solutions to the text’s exercises.

david c. m. dickson holds a PhD in Actuarial Science from Heriot-Watt University and is a Fellow of the Institute and Faculty of Actuaries and the Institute of Actuaries of Australia. David lectured for seven years at Heriot- Watt University before moving to the University of Melbourne in 1993. In 2000 David was appointed to the Chair in Actuarial Studies in Melbourne. He was Head of the Department of Economics from 2016 to 2018. He has twice been awarded the HM Jackson Prize of the Institute of Actuaries of Australia, most recently for his bookInsurance Risk and Ruin.

mary r. hardyis Professor of Actuarial Science at the University of Waterloo.

She earned her PhD in Actuarial Science from Heriot-Watt University, where she lectured for 11 years before moving to the University of Waterloo in 1997. She is a Fellow of the Institute and Faculty of Actuaries, and of the Society of Actuaries. In 2007 she was awarded the Chartered Enterprise Risk Analyst designation of the Society of Actuaries, through their thought-leader recognition program. In 2013 she was awarded the Finlaison Medal of the Institute and Faculty of Actuaries for services to the actuarial profession, in research, teaching and governance.

howard r. waters is Professor Emeritus at the Department of Actuarial Mathematics and Statistics at Heriot-Watt University. He holds a DPhil in mathematics from Oxford University, and worked as a consulting actuary for several years before joining Heriot-Watt University. He is a Fellow of the Institute and Faculty of Actuaries. He was awarded the Finlaison medal of the Institute of Actuaries in 2006 for services to actuarial research and education.

(4)

Editorial Board

Christopher Daykin (Independent Consultant and Actuary) Angus Macdonald (Heriot-Watt University)

The International Series on Actuarial Science, published by Cambridge University Press in conjunction with the Institute and Faculty of Actuaries, contains textbooks for students taking courses in or related to actuarial science, as well as more advanced works designed for continuing professional development or for describing and synthesizing research. The series is a vehicle for publishing books that reﬂect changes and developments in the curriculum, that encourage the introduction of courses on actuarial science in universities, and that show how actuarial science can be used in all areas where there is long-term ﬁnancial risk.

A complete list of books in the series can be found at www.cambridge.org/isas.Recent titles include the following:

Modelling Mortality with Actuarial Applications

Angus S. Macdonald, Stephen J. Richards & Iain D. Currie Claims Reserving in General Insurance

David Hindley

Financial Enterprise Risk Management (2nd Edition) Paul Sweeting

Insurance Risk and Ruin (2nd Edition) David C.M. Dickson

Predictive Modeling Applications in Actuarial Science, Volume 2: Case Studies in Insurance

Edited by Edward W. Frees, Richard A. Derrig & Glenn Meyers

Predictive Modeling Applications in Actuarial Science, Volume 1: Predictive Modeling Techniques

Edited by Edward W. Frees, Richard A. Derrig & Glenn Meyers Computation and Modelling in Insurance and Finance

Erik Bølviken

(5)

ACTUARIAL MATHEMATICS FOR LIFE CONTINGENT RISKS

third edition

DAV I D C . M . D I C K S O N

University of Melbourne

M A RY R . H A R DY

University of Waterloo, Ontario

H OWA R D R . WAT E R S

Heriot-Watt University, Edinburgh

(6)

One Liberty Plaza, 20th Floor, New York, NY 10006, USA 477 Williamstown Road, Port Melbourne, VIC 3207, Australia 314–321, 3rd Floor, Plot 3, Splendor Forum, Jasola District Centre,

New Delhi – 110025, India

103 Penang Road, #05–06/07, Visioncrest Commercial, Singapore 238467 Cambridge University Press is part of the University of Cambridge.

It furthers the University’s mission by disseminating knowledge in the pursuit of education, learning, and research at the highest international levels of excellence.

www.cambridge.org

Information on this title:www.cambridge.org/9781108478083 DOI:10.1017/9781108784184

c David C. M. Dickson, Mary R. Hardy and Howard R. Waters 2009, 2013, 2020 This publication is in copyright. Subject to statutory exception

and to the provisions of relevant collective licensing agreements, no reproduction of any part may take place without the written

permission of Cambridge University Press.

First published 2009 Second edition 2013 Third edition 2020

Printed in the United Kingdom by TJ International Ltd. Padstow Cornwall A catalogue record for this publication is available from the British Library

Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data

Names: Dickson, D. C. M. (David C. M.), 1959- author.|Hardy, Mary, 1958- author.|Waters, H. R. (Howard Richard), author.

Title: Actuarial mathematics for life contingent risks / David C. M.

Dickson, University of Melbourne, Mary R. Hardy, University of Waterloo, Ontario, Howard R. Waters, Heriot-Watt University, Edinburgh.

Description: Third edition.|Cambridge ; New York : Cambridge University Press, [2020]|Includes bibliographical references and index.

Identiﬁers: LCCN 2019042023 (print)|LCCN 2019042024 (ebook)| ISBN 9781108478083 (hardback)|ISBN 9781108784184 (epub) Subjects: LCSH: Insurance–Mathematics.|Risk (Insurance)–Mathematics.

Classiﬁcation: LCC HG8781 .D528 2020 (print)|LCC HG8781 (ebook)| DDC 368/.01–dc23

LC record available athttps://lccn.loc.gov/2019042023 LC ebook record available athttps://lccn.loc.gov/2019042024

ISBN 978-1-108-47808-3 Hardback

Cambridge University Press has no responsibility for the persistence or accuracy of URLs for external or third-party internet websites referred to in this publication

and does not guarantee that any content on such websites is, or will remain, accurate or appropriate.

(7)

To Carolann, Vivien and Phelim

(8)

(9)

Preface to the third edition

Life insurance has undergone enormous change in the last two to three decades.

New and innovative products have been developed at the same time as we have seen vast increases in computational power. In addition, the field of finance has experienced a revolution in the development of a mathematical theory of options and financial guarantees, first pioneered in the work of Black, Scholes and Merton, and actuaries have come to realize the importance of that work to risk management in actuarial contexts.

In this book we have adapted the traditional approach to the mathematics of life contingent risks to account for the products, science and technology that are relevant to current and future actuaries, taking into consideration both demographic and ﬁnancial uncertainty. The material is presented with a certain level of mathematical rigour; we want readers to understand the principles involved, rather than to memorize methods or formulae. The reason is that a rigorous approach will prove more useful in the long run than a short-term utilitarian outlook, as theory can be adapted to changing products and technology in ways that techniques, without scientiﬁc support, cannot.

However, this is a very practical text. The models and techniques presented are versions, a little simpliﬁed in parts, of the models and techniques in use by actuaries in the forefront of modern actuarial management.

The ﬁrst seven chapters set the context for the material, and cover traditional actuarial models and theory of life contingencies, with modern computational techniques integrated throughout, and with an emphasis on the practical context for the survival models and valuation methods presented. Through the focus on realistic contracts and assumptions, we aim to foster a general business awareness in the life insurance context, at the same time as we develop the mathematical tools for risk management in that context.

FromChapter 8,we move into more modern theory and methods.

xix

(22)

In Chapter 8 we introduce multiple state models, which generalize the life–death contingency structure of previous chapters. Using multiple state models allows a single framework for a wide range of insurance, including income replacement insurance, where beneﬁts and premiums depend on the health status of the policyholder, and critical illness insurance, which pays a beneﬁt on diagnosis of certain serious medical disorders. We also present other applications of multiple state models, including long-term care, continuing care retirement communities and structured settlements.

InChapter 9we consider a particular type of multiple state model, namely the multiple decrement model, which occurs frequently in actuarial applications, a notable example being in pension plan valuation.

InChapter 10we apply the models and results from multiple state models to insurance involving two lives, typically domestic partners. It is increasingly common for partners to purchase life insurance cover or annuity income products where the beneﬁts depend on both lives, not on a single insured life.

InChapter 11we apply the theory developed in the earlier chapters to problems involving pension beneﬁts. Pension mathematics has some specialized concepts, particularly in funding principles, but in general this chapter is an application of the theory in the preceding chapters.

InChapter 12we move to a more sophisticated view of interest rate models and interest rate risk. In this chapter we explore the crucially important difference between diversiﬁable and non-diversiﬁable risk.

InChapter 13we introduce a general algorithm for projecting the emerging surplus of insurance policies, by considering the year-to-year net cash ﬂows.

One of the liberating aspects of the computer revolution for actuaries is that we are no longer required to summarize complex benefits in a single actuarial value; we can go much further in projecting the cash flows to see how and when surplus will emerge. This is much richer information that the actuary can use to assess profitability and to better manage portfolio assets and liabilities.

In life insurance contexts, the emerging cash ﬂow projection is often called

‘proﬁt-testing’.

InChapter 14we follow up on the cash ﬂow projections ofChapter 13to show how proﬁt testing can be used to analyse Universal Life insurance, which is very popular in North America.

In Chapter 15we use the emerging cash flow approach to assess equity- linked contracts, where a financial guarantee is commonly part of the contingent benefit. The real risks for such products can only be assessed taking the random variation in potential outcomes into consideration, and we demonstrate this with Monte Carlo simulation of the emerging cash flows.

(23)

Preface to the third edition xxi The products that are explored inChapter 15 contain financial guarantees embedded in the life contingent benefits. Option theory is the mathematics of valuation and risk management of financial guarantees. InChapter 16we introduce the fundamental assumptions and results of option theory.

InChapter 17we apply option theory to the embedded options of ﬁnancial guarantees in insurance products. The theory can be used for pricing and for determining appropriate reserves, as well as for assessing proﬁtability.

InChapter 18we move into a different aspect of actuarial work and discuss some of the techniques that are used to estimate the survival models that appear in earlier chapters.

InChapter 19we present a very brief introduction to the important practical topic of modelling longevity through stochastic mortality models.

The material in this book is designed for undergraduate and graduate programmes in actuarial science, for those self-studying for professional actuarial exams and for practitioners interested in updating their skill set. The content has been designed primarily to prepare readers for practical actuarial work in life insurance and pension funding and valuation. The text covers all of the most recent syllabus requirements for the LTAM exam of the Society of Actuaries and for the CM1 exam of the UK Institute and Faculty of Actuaries.

Some of the topics in this book are not currently covered by those professional exams, and many of the topics that are in the exams are covered in signiﬁcantly more depth in the text, particularly where we believe the content will be valuable beyond the exams.

Students and other readers should have sufﬁcient background in probability to be able to calculate moments of functions of one or two random variables, and to handle conditional expectations and variances. We assume familiarity with the binomial, uniform, exponential, normal and lognormal distributions.

Some of the more important results are reviewed inAppendix A.Readers are also assumed to have a knowledge of maximum likelihood estimation, also reviewed in Appendix A. We also assume that readers have completed an introductory level course in the mathematics of ﬁnance, and are aware of the actuarial notation for interest, discount and annuities-certain.

Throughout, we have opted to use examples that liberally call on spreadsheet-style software. Spreadsheets are ubiquitous tools in actuarial practice, and it is natural to use them throughout, allowing us to use more realistic examples, rather than having to simplify for the sake of mathematical tractability. Other software could be used equally effectively, but spreadsheets represent a fairly universal language that is easily accessible. To keep the computation requirements reasonable, we have ensured that all but one of the examples and exercises can be completed in Microsoft Excel, without needing any VBA code or macros. Readers who have sufﬁcient familiarity to

(24)

write their own code may find more efficient solutions than those that we have presented, but our principle is that no reader should need to know more than the basic Excel functions and applications. It will be very useful for anyone working through the material of this book to construct their own spreadsheet tables as they work through the first seven chapters, to generate mortality and actuarial functions for a range of mortality models and interest rates. In the worked examples in the text, we have worked with greater accuracy than we record, so there will be some differences from rounding when working with intermediate figures.

One of the advantages of spreadsheets is the ease of implementation of numerical integration algorithms. We assume that students are aware of the principles of numerical integration, and we give some of the most useful algorithms inAppendix B.

The material in this book is appropriate for three one-semester courses.

The first six chapters form a fairly traditional basis, and would reasonably constitute a first course.Chapters 7–12introduce more contemporary material, and could be used for the second course.Chapter 11,on pension mathematics, is not required for subsequent chapters, and could be omitted if a single focus on life insurance is preferred. Chapters 13–17 form a coherent, cash-flow- based coverage of variable insurance, which could be the basis of the third, more advanced course. Chapter 18 can reasonably be covered at any point afterChapter 8,andChapter 19at any point afterChapter 5.

Changes from the second edition

The text has been updated to reflect changes in insurance and pension benefits since the first edition was published in 2009. In particular, we illustrate how the methods and models covered can be applied to a wide range of newer insurance contracts contingent on morbidity rather than just mortality. Examples include critical illness and long-term care insurance. We have expanded the pension valuation material to give more detail on career average earnings plans, which have become much more popular in the past decade. We have included a chapter (Chapter 18) on how the models that we use throughout the book are developed from demographic data. Finally, we have included discussion of issues around changing mortality, considering deterministic and stochastic models of mortality improvement.

• The ﬁrst chapter has been signiﬁcantly expanded to provide readers with greater background about life insurance practice and products. New material has been included on topics such as health insurance, continuing care retirement communities and structured settlements.

(25)

Preface to the third edition xxiii

• Chapter 3includes new material about deterministic modelling of mortality improvement and the construction of mortality improvement scales.

• Chapter 8contains new material on state-dependent annuity and insurance functions, as well as recursions for state-dependent policy values. We now also show how multiple state models can be applied to topics such as critical illness insurance, long-term care and structured settlements.

• Chapter 9 contains material on multiple decrement models that was in Chapter 8of the second edition. As a result,Chapters 10–16of the second edition appear asChapters 11–17in this edition.

• Chapter 11has been expanded to include updated material on the valuation and funding of pension plan beneﬁts and new content on the valuation and funding of retiree health beneﬁts.

• Chapters 13and14have been rearranged.Chapter 14now covers Universal Life insurance. Some of the material on participating insurance that was previously in this chapter has been moved toChapter 13.

• Chapter 18is a new chapter dealing with estimation for lifetime distributions and multiple state transition intensities. Consequently,Appendix Ahas been expanded to include a review of the key points about maximum likelihood estimation.

• Chapter 19is a new chapter which provides an introduction to the key ideas about the Lee–Carter and Cairns–Blake–Dowd stochastic mortality models.

• The end-of-chapter exercises have been reorganized as short, long and Excel- based questions. We have also added new exercises to almost all chapters.

• In a number of places, particularlyChapters 6and8,we have changed exercises to make them more useful for examination preparation, in particular using tables of insurance functions, rather than assuming that readers can access the required functions using an Excel workbook.

Acknowledgements

We acknowledge all the colleagues and students who provided comment and feedback during the writing of each edition of this text. Special thanks go to Jeff Beckley, Carole Bernard, Ken Bonvallet, Phelim Boyle, Jessica Dang, Chris Groendyke, Johnny Siu-Hang Li, Ana Maria Mera, Gary Parker, Kok Keng Siaw, Steve White, Matthew Till and Mike Zhu.

We are grateful to the Society of Actuaries for permission to reproduce questions from their MLC and LTAM exams, for which they own copyright.

The relevant questions are noted in the text.

The authors gratefully acknowledge the contribution of the Departments of Statistics and Actuarial Science, University of Waterloo, Actuarial Mathemat- ics and Statistics, Heriot-Watt University, and the Department of Economics,

(26)

University of Melbourne, in welcoming the non-resident authors for short visits to work on this book.

Finally, thanks to Carolann Waters, Vivien Dickson and Phelim Boyle, to whom this book is dedicated, for their unstinting support and generosity.

David Dickson University of Melbourne Mary Hardy University of Waterloo Howard Waters Heriot-Watt University

(27)

1

Introduction to life and long-term health insurance

1.1 Summary

In this chapter we lay out the context for the mathematics of later chapters, by describing some of the background to modern actuarial practice, as it pertains to long-term, life contingent payments. We describe the major types of life insurance products that are sold in developed insurance markets, and discuss how these products have evolved over the recent past. We also consider long-term insurance that is dependent on the health status of the insured life, rather than simply survival or death. Finally, we describe some common pension designs.

We give examples of the actuarial questions arising from the risk management of these contracts. How to answer such questions, and solve the resulting problems, is the subject of the following chapters.

1.2 Background

The ﬁrst actuaries were employed by life insurance companies in the early eighteenth century to provide a scientiﬁc basis for managing the companies’

assets and liabilities. The liabilities depended on the number of deaths occur- ring amongst the insured lives each year. The modelling of mortality became a topic of both commercial and general scientific interest, and it attracted many significant scientists and mathematicians to actuarial problems, with the result that much of the early work in the field of probability was closely connected with the development of solutions to actuarial problems.

The earliest life insurance policies were annual contracts; the purchaser would pay an amount, called the premium, to the insurer, nominating an individual whose life was insured under the contract. The insured life might be the purchaser, but could also be a third party. If the insured life died during the year that the contract was in force, the insurer would pay a predetermined lump sum, the sum insured, to the policyholder or his or her estate. Each

1

(28)

year the premium would increase as the probability of death increased. If the insured life became very ill at the renewal date, the insurance might not be renewed, in which case no beneﬁt would be paid on the insured life’s subsequent death. Over a large number of contracts, the premium income each year should approximately match the claims outgo. This method of matching income and outgo annually, with no attempt to smooth or balance the premiums over the years, is calledassessmentism. This method is still used for group life insurance, where an employer purchases life insurance cover for its employees on a year-to-year basis.

The radical development in the later eighteenth century was the level premium contract. The problem with assessmentism was that the annual increases in premiums discouraged policyholders from renewing their contracts. The level premium policy offered the policyholder the option to lock in a regular premium, payable perhaps weekly, monthly, or annually, which was fixed for the term of the contract. This was much more popular with policyholders, as they would not be priced out of the insurance contract just when it might be most needed. For the insurer, the attraction of the longer contract was a greater likelihood of the policyholder paying premiums for a longer period. However, a problem for the insurer was that the longer contracts were more complex to model, and offered more financial risk. For these contracts actuarial techniques had to develop beyond the year-to-year modelling of mortality probabilities. In particular, it became necessary to incorporate financial considerations into the modelling of income and outgo. Over a one-year contract, the time value of money is not a critical aspect. Over, say, a 30-year contract, it becomes a very important part of the modelling and management of risk.

Another development in life insurance in the nineteenth century was the concept ofinsurable interest. This was a requirement in law that the person contracting to pay the life insurance premiums should face a financial loss on the death of the insured life – an insurance payout should not leave the beneficiary financially better off than if the insured life had not died. The insurable interest requirement ended the practice where individuals would insure persons (often public figures) with no connection to the purchaser, as a form of gambling. It also, importantly, removed the incentive for a policyholder to hasten the death of the insured life. Subsequently, insurance policies tended to be purchased by the insured life, and in the rest of this book we use the convention that the policyholder who pays the premiums is also the life insured, whose survival or death triggers the payment of the sum insured under the conditions of the contract.

The earliest studies of mortality include life tables constructed by John Graunt and Edmund Halley. A life table summarizes a survival model by

(29)

1.3 Traditional life insurance contracts 3 specifying the proportion of lives that are expected to survive to each age.

Using London mortality data from the early seventeenth century, Graunt proposed, for example, that each new life had a probability of 40% of surviving to age 16, and a probability of 1% of surviving to age 76. Edmund Halley, famous for his astronomical calculations, used mortality data from the city of Breslau in the late seventeenth century as the basis for his life table, which, like Graunt’s, was constructed by proposing the average (‘medium’ in Halley’s phrase) proportion of survivors to each age from an arbitrary number of births. Halley took the work two steps further. First, he used the table to draw inference about the conditional survival probabilities at intermediate ages. That is, given the probability that a newborn life survives to each subsequent age, it is possible to infer the probability that a life aged, say, 20, will survive to each subsequent age, using the condition that a life aged zero survives to age 20.

The second major innovation was that Halley combined the mortality data with an assumption about interest rates to ﬁnd the value of a whole life annuity at different ages. A whole life annuity is a contract paying a level sum at regular intervals while the named life (the annuitant) is still alive. The calculations in Halley’s paper bear a remarkable similarity to some of the work still used by actuaries in pensions and life insurance.

This book continues in the tradition of combining models of mortality with models in ﬁnance to develop a framework for pricing and risk management of long-term policies in life and health insurance. Many of the same techniques are relevant also in pensions mathematics. However, there have been many changes since the ﬁrst long-term policies of the late eighteenth century.

We usually use the terminsuranceto refer to a contract under which the beneﬁt is paid as a single lump sum, either on the death of the policyholder or on survival to a predeterminedmaturity date. (In the UK it is common to use the termassurancefor insurance contracts involving lives, and ‘insurance’ for contracts involving property.) Anannuityis a beneﬁt in the form of a regular series of payments, usually conditional on the survival of the policyholder.

1.3 Traditional life insurance contracts 1.3.1 Introduction

The three traditional forms of life insurance are term, whole life and endowment insurance. These policies dominated insurance markets until the 1980s, and in some countries are still popular today. However, the design of life insurance has broadened signiﬁcantly in the past few decades. In this section we describe features of traditional life insurance policies. In the next section we review more modern developments.

(30)

1.3.2 Term insurance

Term (or temporary) insurance pays a lump sum beneﬁt on the death of the policyholder, provided death occurs before the end of a speciﬁed term. Typical contract terms range from 10 to 30 years.

The premiums for term insurance are usually very small relative to the sum insured, because the insurer has to pay a death benefit on only a small proportion of the policies issued. If a policyholder who is aged 40 purchases 10-year term insurance, then the probability that the insurer will pay any death benefit on the policy (which is just the probability that the life dies before age 50) might be around 2%. So, around 98% of such policies will expire with no death benefit payable, and the premiums from these policies subsidize the benefits for the 2% for which the death benefit must be paid.

A term insurance policyholder may choose to lapse their policy, which means the policyholder would cease paying premiums. In this case, their insurance cover would also cease, and there would be no further payments by the policyholder or the insurer.

The main purpose of term insurance is for family protection. For a relatively low monthly cost, term insurance can protect the policyholder’s spouse and children against ﬁnancial hardship in the event of the policyholder’s death.

Another use of term insurance is to protect businesses against losses arising from the deaths of key employees. In this case the business pays the premiums and receives the sum insured if the insured life dies during the term. The business must demonstrate insurable interest. This type of insurance used to be calledKey Person Insurance, but is now more commonly calledCOLIfor Company Owned Life Insurance.

Most term insurance policies offer a level sum insured, funded by level monthly or annual premiums. A variant isdecreasing term insurancewhere the death benefit decreases over the term of the policy. Decreasing term insurance may be used in conjunction with a home loan; if the policyholder dies, the outstanding loan is paid from the term insurance proceeds, sparing the policyholder’s family from the potential difficulty, expense and distress of struggling to make the loan payments after the policyholder’s death. The death benefit under the policy can be set to match the outstanding loan on the home in each year of the contract.

Renewable term insurance offers the policyholder the option to renew the policy at the end of the original term, without further evidence of the policyholder’s health status, up to a maximum age. For example, if the maximum age is 85, a policyholder purchasing a 20-year renewable term policy at age 45 would have the option to renew the policy at age 65 for another 20 years. The premium for the renewed contract would be greater than the original, because the probability of paying the death beneﬁt increases, but

(31)

1.3 Traditional life insurance contracts 5 insurability is guaranteed, which means that renewal does not depend at all on the health status of the policyholder at that time. Inyearly renewable term insuranceeach individual contract has just a one-year term.

Convertible term insuranceoffers the policyholder the option to convert to a whole life insurance at the end of the original term, or, for a renewable term policy, at the end of the ﬁrst or second renewal. The premium would be recalculated for the new whole life policy, depending on the age at conversion.

Conversion does not depend on or require evidence of the policyholder’s health status at conversion, but there may be a maximum age at which conversion is permitted (typically, around age 75).

1.3.3 Whole life insurance

Whole life, orpermanent,insurancepays a lump sum benefit on the death of the policyholder whenever it occurs. For regular premium contracts, the premium is often payable only up to some maximum age, typically 80–90 years old. The point of whole life insurance is that it should pay the death benefit whenever the policyholder dies, and it would not meet this objective if policies lapsed at older ages through non-payment of premiums, whether because of financial strain or through decreasing ability of the policyholder to manage their affairs in older age.

In general, whole life insurance will be significantly more expensive than term insurance, relative to the death benefit, as the probability of paying the death benefit (ignoring lapses) is 100%.

Traditionally, if a whole life policyholder decides to discontinue the policy after an initial period, they would be eligible for acash valueor surrender value, representing the investment part of the accumulated premiums. In the early years of a whole life policy, the cash values tend to be very low. In later years they may be substantial, though typically very much less than the sum insured. Recently it has become common in some countries to offer whole life policies with no cash value payable on surrender.

Life insurance works by combining premiums with the investment income (earned by investing the premiums), such that, by the time the policyholder dies, the premiums plus the investment income are sufficient, on average, to pay the sum insured. For short-term policies, premiums cover most of the sum insured. For long-term contracts the investment income becomes a much more significant component. The term of a whole life contract may be very long – a policy sold to a life aged 40 may still be in force over 50 years later – so the contribution of investment income is much more significant than for most term insurance. However, predicting investment returns over very long terms is very difficult, so insurers tend to calculate premiums using very conservative (that is, low side) assumptions about investment returns, resulting in relatively

(32)

high premiums. This means that most policyholders (the ones who do not die very early) earn quite low rates of return on their premiums, compared with, for example, simply paying the same amount into a mutual fund investment over the same period.

Suppose an insurer is pricing a whole life policy at a time when long- term interest rates of 7% per year are available, for a 20-year investment. The insurer may calculate the premium assuming 6% per year interest, allowing the difference of 1%, which is called theinterest spread, to cover proﬁt and allow a margin for adverse experience. The risk to the insurer is that interest rates could fall below 6% per year at some point during the contract, in which case the interest earned on investments made at that time would fall short of the amount required to pay the sum insured. On the other hand, if the insurer is more cautious, perhaps assuming only 3% per year interest, the investment part of the policy will look quite unattractive for the customer, compared with the 7% per year available from direct investment.

One solution to this problem is to charge the higher premium, but promise to pay back to the policyholder some share of the profits if the investments do well. If the investment experience is very poor, there will be no profits, and no profit-sharing. This is the principle behindparticipatinginsurance, where

‘participating’ refers to the policyholders’ participation in the distribution of proﬁts. Participating insurance is also calledpar insurance for short, and is more commonly calledwith-proﬁtoutside North America.

The policyholders’ share of profits is calleddividendsin North America, and bonuses elsewhere. We use the term ‘dividend’ when the profit share is distributed in the form of cash (or cash equivalent, such as a reduction in premium), and ‘bonus’ when the profit share is distributed in the form of additional insurance. In fact, the form of distribution is an important design feature for participating insurance, with different jurisdictions favouring different distribution methods, with the following being the most common.

Cash refunds may be distributed at regular (e.g. annual) intervals, based on the proﬁt emerging in the preceding year. This is common for North American participating insurance.

Premium reductions work very similarly to cash refunds. The proﬁt allocated to the policyholder for the year may be used to reduce the premiums due in the period to the subsequent allocation date.

Increased death benefits are determined by using the emerging profit to increase the death benefit.

There are many variants of these methods. It is common in North America for policyholders to be given some choice about the distribution – for example,

(33)

1.3 Traditional life insurance contracts 7 offering a cash dividend as a standard beneﬁt, but with options to convert to additional death beneﬁt.

In the UK, proﬁts were invariably distributed in the form of beneﬁt increases.

Bonuses would be awarded in two stages.Reversionary bonusesare applied to contracts in force, increasing the beneﬁts by a speciﬁed percentage. There are three variations:

• simple reversionary bonusmeans the bonus rate is applied to the original sum insured only;

• compound reversionary bonusmeans the bonus rate is applied to the total of the sum insured and previous reversionary bonuses;

• super-compound reversionary bonusis a method with two bonus rates each year, the ﬁrst applying to the original sum insured, and the second applying to the total of previous bonus declarations.

Terminal bonuses are used to top up the sum insured when the benefit is finally paid. Separating the profit share into reversionary and terminal bonuses allows insurers to take a more cautious attitude to distributing unrealized capital gains.

It is important to note that for all traditional participating whole life insurance, dividends and bonuses are never negative. Only proﬁts are shared, not losses.

Proﬁt distribution methods for participating insurance have an important impact on actuarial management, and on the techniques for pricing and mar- keting of policies. We note some of the more important considerations here.

• Cash dividends are attractive to policyholders; they are easy to understand, and offer flexibility. If a policyholder is in financial difficulty, the cash may enable the policyholder to maintain the policy longer, as it can be used to offset premiums. If the policyholder wants to increase their death cover, the cash bonus can be used to buy more insurance – but at greater cost, generally, than the reversionary bonus, as it constitutes a new policy and therefore incurs new policy expense charges.

• Cash dividends may be taxable. If the policyholder has no need for the cash, it is not likely to be a tax-efﬁcient asset.

• Reversionary bonuses are more complex for policyholders to understand, but do offer a tax efﬁcient distribution, that is also consistent with the purpose of the policy – to provide a death beneﬁt over long terms.

• Insurers may offer a limited share of proﬁts for policies that are surrendered.

This can be particularly unfair when profit is distributed as reversionary bonus, as policyholders who contributed to the profits each year may only receive a small proportion of them on surrender. If profits are shared through

(34)

cash dividends, then, at most, the policyholder would lose one-year’s proﬁt share on surrender.

• Cash dividends require the insurer to liquidate assets, which may not be in the best interests of maximizing return. Reversionary bonus means that proﬁts remain under the insurer’s management, and so provides more potential for future proﬁt for the insurer.

• Generally, insurers prefer to offer smooth bonuses and dividends, that is, with little variation from year to year. This is generally easier with reversionary and terminal bonus, as the actual payment is delayed until the policy matures.

• Cash dividends are expensive to operate, if every policyholder is paid a dividend each year.

Traditional participating whole life insurance is still popular in North America, but is no longer widely available in the UK or Australia, though some non-participating whole life policies are still marketed. One reason for the relatively greater success of the product in North America is that insurers there offered larger and more predictable cash values, so that policyholders could achieve a reasonable return on their premiums, even if they surrendered the contract.

Whole life insurance may be used by policyholders in a number of ways, for example as follows.

• For older lives, simpliﬁed whole life insurance may be used to cover funeral expenses. These policies have a relatively low sum insured, tend to be non- participating, and do not offer any cash value on surrender.

• For older, higher-wealth lives, whole life insurance may be used to reduce inheritance taxes, if the proceeds from insurance are taxed at a lower marginal rate than directly inherited wealth.

• For younger lives, participating whole life insurance can provide a simple, passive long-term investment opportunity, with the advantage of substantial death beneﬁt (compared with premiums) in the event of early death.

As mentioned above, for some policies, particularly those designed for older policyholders (for tax planning or funeral expenses), cash values may not be offered on surrender of the contract. This can reduce the premiums, as the excess funds from lapsed contracts subsidize the remaining policies. This is calledlapse-supportedinsurance. However, if policyholders have the ability to sell their policies to a third party, then the lapsation proﬁts may be very low.

This has led to the rise of Stranger Owned Life Insurance, orSTOLI, where an investment ﬁrm (usually specializing in this business) makes a cash payment to a policyholder who wants to surrender their policy. The investment ﬁrm

(35)

1.3 Traditional life insurance contracts 9 then takes over the payment of premiums as long as the original policyholder survives, and receives the sum insured on their death. If the value of the cash settlement to the original policyholder plus the cost of premiums after the sale of the policy is less than the value of the sum insured, then the investment firm makes a profit. If the original policyholder survives longer than expected, then the firm may make a loss. Often the policy is exchanged for a very deep discount on the sum insured, even for quite elderly policyholders, allowing the investment firm to make very significant profits on a large proportion of their policies.

1.3.4 Endowment insurance

Endowment insurance offers a lump sum benefit paid either on the death of the policyholder or at the end of a specified term, whichever occurs first. This is a hybrid of a term insurance and a fixed term investment. If the policyholder dies, the sum insured is paid, just as it would be under a term insurance; if the policyholder survives, the sum insured is paid at the end of the contract.

Similarly to whole life insurance, the probability of a payout on an endowment insurance, ignoring lapses, is 100%. For similar reasons to the whole life case, endowment insurance typically offers cash values on early surrender, and may be issued in participating or non-participating forms.

Endowment insurance is no longer offered through mainstream insurers in North America or the UK. The main purpose of endowment insurance is as an investment, but the low returns offered and lack of ﬂexibility meant that the contract could not compete with an increasing variety of pure investment options that became widely available in the latter part of the twentieth century. Traditional endowment insurance then evolved into modern insurance/investment hybrids such as the Universal Life or Unit Linked policies described later in this chapter.

It is interesting to note, however, that traditional endowment insurance policies are increasing in popularity in developing nations, notably for microin- surance, where the amounts involved are small. In this context endowment insurance policies may be used in conjunction with microﬁnance, to support small sum lending to individuals and small businesses who may not have access to traditional banking services.

1.3.5 Options and variations on traditional insurance

Insurance riders are optional beneﬁts that a policyholder can select at the issue of a contract. In this section we describe some common riders and other variations associated with traditional insurance.

(36)

Joint life insurance: For term and whole life insurance, policies issued on

‘joint lives’ have premiums and benefits that depend on the survival of two people, typically spouses. The most common format is a first- to-die policy, where the death benefit is paid on the first death of the couple, provided (for term insurance) that the death occurs within the policy term.

Joint life policies are increasingly popular as households increasingly rely on the earnings of two partners, not just one.

Multiple life insurance: Similarly to joint life policies, multiple life term insurance policies offer a benefit payable on the first death, or on each death, within a specified group of individuals, provided death occurs within the term of the policy. This feature is commonly used to insure business partners.

Guaranteed cash values: As discussed above, whole life and endowment insurance policies usually offer cash values on surrender. The policyholder may be able to lock in guaranteed cash values by paying an additional premium. In some jurisdictions, guaranteed cash values are required by law.

Policy loans: For policies that offer cash values, policyholders may be able to borrow money from the insurer, using the cash value of the policy as collateral. A common use for this is to pay premiums when the policyholder cannot otherwise raise the necessary funds. When the policy with an outstanding policy loan attached becomes a claim (or is surrendered), the sum insured (or cash value) is reduced by the amount of the outstanding loan and interest.

Allowing policy loans increases the chance that the policyholder will continue with the policy, rather than surrender. Since, in most cases, continuing with the policy offers a better opportunity for the insurer to make proﬁts, it is to the insurer’s advantage to facilitate policy loans.

Consequently, the interest rates charged on policy loans may be quite low, relative to market rates.

Accelerated beneﬁts due to terminal illness: Under this rider, the death beneﬁt will be paid early if the policyholder can provide medical documentation that they are suffering from a terminal illness, and are not expected to live more than one year.

The early payment of beneﬁt on terminal illness is called an accelerated death beneﬁt. For the insurer, paying the claim slightly early reduces the incentive for the policyholder to sell the policy on to a third party, in a special kind of end-of-life STOLI called a viatical settlement.

(37)

1.4 Modern insurance contracts 11 Accidental death beneﬁt: For a small additional premium, policyholders can choose to have an increased sum insured payable if the cause of death is accidental, rather than through natural causes. Surprisingly, this concept provided the inspiration for the Hollywood feature ﬁlmDouble Indemnity, which was released in 1944.

Premium waiver on disability: This policy rider allows policyholders to suspend paying premiums during periods of severe illness or disability.

The premium waiver would require medical evidence, and would be limited to premiums due during the policyholder’s normal working lifetime, typically up to age 65.

Family income benefit (FIB): One of the purposes of term insurance is to provide funds to bridge the policyholder’s family through the financial strain following his or her death. The FIB rider offers a specified amount to be paid at regular intervals between the policyholder’s death and the end of the original contract term. For example, consider a policyholder who takes out a 20-year term insurance, with an FIB rider with benefit

$10 000 per year. Now suppose the policyholder dies 15 years into the policy term. Then, in addition to the regular term insurance death beneﬁt, the FIB would pay the policyholder’s family $10 000 per year for the remaining ﬁve years of the original contract.

Critical illness insurance: A beneﬁt is paid on diagnosis of one of a speciﬁed set of critical illnesses or disabilities, typically including most cancers, stroke and heart disease. Critical illness cover is discussed in more detail inSection 1.7.

1.4 Modern insurance contracts 1.4.1 Why innovate?

Compared with traditional policies, modern insurance is more complex, apparently more transparent in terms of costs and benefits, with flexibility in premiums and variability in benefits. We explain some reasons below.

1. Competition with mutual funds and banks for policyholders’ savings Insurers developed combined insurance/investment hybrid products to attract savings away from other investment options such as mutual funds.

This gives insurers more assets under management, and more chance to generate proﬁts for their shareholders.

2. Changing demographics and lifecycles impact insurance design Nowadays, many jobs are more short term; as policyholders move in and out of work, insurance needs to offer increased ﬂexibility, to meet policyholders’ needs in both good times and bad.

(38)

3. Developments in science and technology

The science of ﬁnancial risk management has developed signiﬁcantly in the past 30 years, offering insurers the possibility of designing valuable guarantees that can be safely risk managed. Also, more powerful computational facilities allow more complex modelling and prediction.

4. Better informed customers

Potential policyholders are better informed about how products work, as financial advice has become more reliable (though there are still very many examples of bad financial advice), and is more freely available, through newspapers, or through social media. This has reduced (but, unfortunately, not eliminated) the creation of insurance products that are very profitable for the insurers and the sales intermediaries, but were not really suitable for the individuals persuaded to purchase them.

1.4.2 Universal life insurance

Universal life insurance is a very important product, particularly in North America. It is generally issued as a whole life contract, but with transparent cash values, so that policyholders can view the policy as a form of savings account with built-in life insurance, rather than a whole life contract. Given that most policyholders will surrender their policies for a signiﬁcant cash value, perhaps when they retire, the Universal Life contract can be seen as an updated and more ﬂexible version of traditional endowment insurance.

Policyholders choose a level of death benefit, which may be fixed, or may increase as the invested premiums earn interest. Premiums are deposited into a notional account (notional, as the assets are not actually separate from the general funds of the insurer). The insurer shares investment profits through the credited interest rate which is declared and applied by the insurer at regular intervals, typically monthly, and which reflects (perhaps indirectly) the investment performance of the underlying assets. The credited interest rate cannot be less than 0%, so the account cannot lose value. In some cases, there may be a guaranteed minimum rate which is greater than 0%. Unlike traditional insurance, which uses fixed premiums, Universal Life premiums are quite flex- ible. Provided there are sufficient funds in the policyholder’s account to cover costs, the policyholder may reduce or even skip paying premiums for a period.

The notional account, made up of the premiums and credited interest, is subject to monthly deductions; there is a charge for the cost of life insurance cover, and a separate charge to cover expenses. The account balanceor account valueis the balance of funds in the policyholder’s account. The account value represents the cash value for a surrendering policyholder, after an initial period (typically 7–10 years) during which surrender charges are applied to ensure recovery of the costs incurred by the insurer in issuing the policy.