2020 World Economic Forum All rights reserved No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, including photocopying or recording, or by any means. Written by World Economic Forum founder Klaus Schwab and Monthly Barometer writer Thierry Malleret, COVID-19: The Great Reset considers its far-reaching and dramatic consequences for the world of tomorrow. Published in July 2020, in the midst of the crisis, and where further waves of contagion may still emerge, it is a hybrid between a contemporary essay and an academic snapshot of a defining moment in the.
The first one assesses what will be the impact of the pandemic in five main macro categories: economic, social, geopolitical. Professor Klaus Schwab (1938, Ravensburg, Germany) is the Founder and Executive Chairman of the World Economic Forum. In 1972, in addition to his leadership role at the Forum, he became a professor at the University of Geneva.
Thierry Malleret (1961, Paris, France) is Managing Partner of the Monthly Barometer, a concise predictive analysis for private investors, global CEOs and opinion and decision makers. Malleret was educated at the Sorbonne and the Ecole des Hautes Etudes en Sciences Sociales, Paris, and at St Antony's College, Oxford.
CONCLUSION
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS ENDNOTES
INTRODUCTION
MACRO RESET
- Conceptual framework – Three defining characteristics of today’s world
- Interdependence
- Velocity
- Complexity
- Economic reset
- The economics of COVID-19
- Growth and employment
- Fiscal and monetary policies
- Societal reset
- Inequalities
- Social unrest
- The return of “big” government
- The social contract
- Geopolitical reset
- Globalization and nationalism
- Global governance
- The growing rivalry between China and the US
- Fragile and failing states
- Environmental reset
- Coronavirus and the environment 1. Nature and zoonotic diseases
- Impact of the pandemic on climate change and other environmental policies
- Technological reset
- Accelerating the digital transformation
- Contact tracing, contact tracking and surveillance
- The risk of dystopia
Since we are now in the same boat, humanity must take care of the global boat as a whole”. This comparison, which was repeatedly made in the early months of the pandemic, was misleading and. Ultimately, the possible end of the US dollar's primacy will depend on what happens in the US.
58] In the middle of the pandemic (mid-April), the majority of new cases of infection and the number of deaths made this clearer than ever. In the early days of the crisis, prominent individuals echoed such concerns and warned the world of the growing risk of social unrest. In the words of John Micklethwait and Adrian Wooldridge: “The COVID-19 pandemic has made government relevant again.
Today the situation is fundamentally different; in the intervening decades (in the western world) the role of the state has shrunk considerably. It remains to be seen how this will play into the redefinition of the social contract in the United States. New laws announced at the beginning of the pandemic also meant that the state would.
Global coordination will be even more necessary after the epidemiological crisis, as it is unthinkable that it would. It is obvious that the representation of reality depends on the position of the observer. The US perspective is also rooted in the unparalleled dominance it has enjoyed over the rest of the world over the past few decades.
According to the American academic who coined the term, it hurt US soft power because of “its incompetence. In the America-as-ultimate-winners camp, arguments focus on inherent US strengths as well as perceived structural ones. Ominously, at the end of April 2020 and in the middle of quarantine, the riots ended.
In the case of a pandemic, the causal link between virus and disease is obvious: SARS-CoV-2 causes COVID-19. In the early stages of the pandemic, many countries (mainly in East Asia, but also others such as Israel) decided to implement digital tracking in various forms. Cyber intrusions, issues of trust in the system operator, and data retention time pose additional privacy concerns.
But as always, the devil is in the details of the policy and its execution.
MICRO RESET (INDUSTRY AND BUSINESS)
- Micro trends
- Acceleration of digitization
- Resilient supply chains
- Governments and business
- Stakeholder capitalism and ESG
- Industry reset
- Social interaction and de-densification
- Behavioural changes – permanent vs transient
- Resilience
We are still in the early days of the post-pandemic era, but powerful new or accelerating trends are already at work. From the necessary contactless experience imposed on many food and retail businesses during the lockdowns to the virtual showrooms in the. For obvious reasons, healthcare is one of the most heavily regulated industries in the world, and that's a fact.
The formula summarizes that "just in case" will eventually replace "just in time". For all the reasons described in the first chapter, COVID-19 has rewritten many of the rules of the game between the public and private sectors. In the post-pandemic era, business will be subject to much greater government interference than in the past.
In the post-pandemic era, this study will intensify for reasons related to the redefinition of the social contract. This is borne out by early anecdotal evidence that points to an even more positive view of ESG in the post-pandemic era. Some behavioral changes observed during the shutdowns are unlikely to be completely reversed in the post-pandemic era, and some may even become permanent.
How entrenched will these habits and new forms of DIY and auto-consumption become in the post-pandemic era. In the summer of 2020, the direction of the trend seems clear: the world of education, like many other industries, will become partially virtual. Three industries in particular will thrive (overall) in the post-pandemic era: big tech, health and wellness.
Due to the nature of their activity, banks find themselves at the epicenter of the storm during an economic crisis. In the case of the COVID-19 crisis, the test of resilience will come when the volume of non-. In the early stages of the outbreak, the shortage of Chinese components adversely affected global auto production.
INDIVIDUAL RESET
- Redefining our humanness
- The better angels in our nature… or not
- Moral choices
- Mental health and well-being
- Changing priorities
- Creativity
- Time
- Consumption
- Nature and well-being
Psychologically, the most important consequence of the pandemic is to create a phenomenal amount of uncertainty that often becomes a source of anxiety. In the workplace, the issue of mental health has become one of the big elephants in the corporate room. To begin with, in the early months of the outbreak, it was all too easy to fall prey to the biases around availability and visibility.
At the time of writing (June 2020), the impact of the pandemic in terms of mental health cannot be measured or assessed in a generalized way, but the broad contours are known. The impact of COVID-19 has caused a wider and deeper range of mental health problems affecting a larger number of the population, many of which could have been spared in the near future had it not been for the pandemic. A similar principle of creativity under pressure applies to literature and is at the origin of some of the most famous literary works in the Western world.
Some days felt like two whole days.” This happened worldwide as a result of A significant number of them say that in the post-pandemic era we will become more aware of the consequences of our choices and habits and will decide to suppress some forms of consumption. Japanification of the world (which we referred to in the macro section), but there is a much more positive story of Japanification that gives us a sense of.
It is true that the state of the world today is, on average, considerably better than in the past. As of late June 2020 (at a time when the outbreak is still raging in Latin America, South Asia, and much of the United States), COVID-19 has killed less than 0.006% of the world's population. Much of what is to come is unknown, but we can be certain of this: In the post-pandemic world, questions of justice will come to the fore.
The direction of the trends did not change, but after the outbreak of COVID-19 it became much faster. Many of the trends reviewed in the macro section suggest that as we move into the future, our world will be less open and less cooperative than it was before the pandemic. Could a globally shared pandemic experience help alleviate some of the problems we faced when the crisis began?
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
ENDNOTES
41] International Trade Union Confederation (ITCU), “Investing in the healthcare economy: a path to growth”, March 8, 2016, https://www.ituc-. Kenneth, “The Case for Deeply Negative Interest Rates,” Project Syndicate, May 4, 2020, https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/advanced-economies-need-deeply-negative-interest-rates-by-kenneth -rogoff-2020-05. 70] This is particularly evident from the annual Edelman Trust Barometer, https://www.edelman.com/trustbarometer.
Why Nationalism Works”, Foreign Affairs, Maart/April 2019, https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/world why- nationalism-works. 91] Lee Hsien Loong, “The Endangered Asian Century”, Foreign Affairs, Julie/Augustus 2020, https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/asia lee-hsien-loong-endangered-asian-century. New Yorker, 29 April 2020, https://www.newyorker.com/news/q-and-a/the- coronavirus-and-the-future-of-big-tech.
