Texas has the second largest Latino population in the United States and is home to nearly 20 percent of the nation's Latinos. T; is the proportion of the voting population (VAP) that turns out to vote (N/IN;) in area i,. recalling that the definition of T; is the proportion of the voting population (VAP) that turns out to vote, (N;TIN;) in the area /, and X; is the proportion of the voting population (VAP) that is black, (Nt/N;) in area i.
The second assumption means that the Latino registration rate in each province is independent of the size of the Latino VAP in that province. By examining ten election cycles, I hope to better understand the long-term growth of the Latino voting population. First, I consider the white and Latino voting population during the five general elections of the 1980s.
I now turn my attention to the Latino and white voting populations in the five general elections of the 1990s (for individual county estimates, see Table A2 in the Appendix).
Latino and White Turnout, 1990-1998
Although the statewide Latino turnout rate experienced nearly a 50 percent increase, whites still participated in 1998 at a rate nearly double that of Latinos (37 percent versus 69 percent). When considering the years 1992 and 1996, Latino turnout in presidential elections appears to be much higher than in midterm elections, with a statewide Latino turnout rate of 57 percent and 50 percent in these two elections, respectively. When considering the 1990 turnout rates for the six regions, Latino voter turnout is considered low, ranging from 20 percent to 32 percent in all six regions of California.
However, between 1990 and 1998, the attendance rate for Latinos increased by an average of 11 percent in each region, with the largest increases occurring in Southern California, the Bay Area, and the Central Valley. Latino turnout rates vary between urban and rural counties in which the Latino VAP is concentrated. Looking at voter turnout rates in the top ten rural or agricultural counties in California, Table 9 shows that Imperial County, the county with the largest Latino VAP in the state, has consistently high turnout among Latinos, at over 43 percent of the registered Latino provinces. voters who turned out in every election in the 1990s.
This result, combined with the previous finding of higher enrollment rates in this county, supports the conclusion that the size of the Latino VAP in a county can affect Latino enrollment and participation rates. At the same time, four of those rural counties — Kern, Merced, San Joaquin and Stanislaus — have consistently had Latino turnout rates below the state's Latino turnout rate in all five elections, as found by the census. When urban counties with large Latino VAPs are considered in Table 10, I find that Los Angeles, Orange, and Ventura counties have had turnout rates above the state average in the previous five elections.
For the remaining counties with a Latino VAP share greater than 0.20, I used the 1990 Census data, Database C90STF3A, and calculated the ratio between the proportion living within and outside urban areas. Finally, in Table 11, considering whether or not Latinos are benefiting from their political potential, I see that counties with a Latino VAP greater than 30 percent have turnout rates that are consistently higher than the average Latino turnout rate for the state. These low voter turnout numbers confirm that Latinos' political voices are not being heard because they remain silent on Election Day.
The Future of Latino Political Participation in Los Angeles County
By 2020, Latino voter registration would be 41 percent of the total voting-age population. However, the size of the Latino voting-age population (VAP) was found to affect registration and turnout rates. I also include the percentage of the county's population that lives in an urban area.
Now I consider the relative sizes of the effects of the significant variables on the Latino registration rate. However, white registration is significantly affected by the size of the Latino VAP, suggesting that, as the Latino VAP increases, whites are more likely to register to vote. As with Latino registration rates, white registration rates are largely independent of region, with the exception of the Central Coast.
The estimates of the batch registration rates and their respective errors are saved after each iteration. Latinos who came of age in the 1990s will be more likely to register as Democrats because of the anti-immigrant and anti-affirmative actions taken by the Republican Party in that decade. Now I can consider the relative size of the effects of the significant variables on the Latino registration rate.
These results suggest that it is the characteristics of the individuals that matter, not the election-specific issues. This result suggests that the simple aging of the Latino population will not in itself change Democratic registration rates. As the Democratic Party has shown, the aging of the Latino population has little impact on its own.
Because of the complementarity of the results, I focus my subsequent discussion of white political party registration on Democratic registration rates. These results are the same for whites, suggesting that Latinos' political party registration is similar to that of whites and the larger electorate.
Texas: Latino and White Registration and Turnout, 1990-1998
Recognizing that population size and voting-age concentration represent only the potential but not the actual political participation rates of these populations, I then use these county-level estimates of the Latino and white voting-age populations along with county-level registration and turnout rates to make estimates of Latino and white voter registration and turnout for each county during the general elections of the 1990s, using the method of common boundaries. I begin by estimating the voting-age population for Latinos and whites in Texas' 254 counties for the five general elections of the 1990s. First, I calculate the VAP ratio for each county, and then, using this proportion, I calculate the Latino and white VAPs for Latinos for each county and each election.
To calculate the VAP proportion for each county, I use the same methodology as I did with the California data (described in Chapter 3), which allowed me to control for age, citizenship, and crime. First, I calculate the voting population for each county, controlling for age, citizenship, and crime. I then divide this voting population by the total population of the county to arrive at the VAP share.
To calculate Latino-white VAPs for each county, I multiply the total Latino-white population for each county as estimated by the Texas State Data Center by the proportion of VAPs for each year.54 Using these county-level estimates of VAPs, then I extrapolate the Hispanic and white voting populations in Texas and its four distinct geographic and political regions (Frontier West, German Hill, Antebellum East, and Spanish South). First, this VAP is concentrated in the Spanish south, where in 1998 nearly two-thirds of the region's voting population was Latino. However, when I compare my calculated VAP for each county to the total registered for each county as reported by the Secretary of State's office, I find that in a large number of counties the total number of registered voters exceeds the total VAP.
In another ten counties, the total number of registered voters, divided by the total voting population, was greater than 95 percent, which is questionable. First, I calculated a death rate for each county using the total number of deaths in that county and the total population of that county in 1995. Finally, to control for migration, I used the net migration rate as reported by the Texas State Data Center for the period 1990 through 1995, and for those counties that experienced a net loss, I multiplied the net migration rate and the total number of registered voters for the county and subtracted that number from the total number of registered voters after the death rate adjustment to get the adjusted registration number for each county .
Conclusion: Latino Citizenship and Participation in California and Texas
Before answering any political questions, it was necessary for me to determine the size of the Latino Voting Population (VAP). In addition, Latino registration remains lower than the state average in several regions where Latino VAP is concentrated. I found that the Latino VAP is concentrated in the Hispanic South region of Texas, where in 1998 nearly two-thirds of the voting population was Latino.
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