1
CHAPTER I INTRODUCTION
1.1 Background
Disaster is a part of human life. It often happens as an unpredictable phenomenon againsts our will. It can occur suddenly or through a slow process in various ways such as flood, landslide, drought, tsunami and eruption. A particular tool can predict some disasters, but others cannot accurately predict when and where it will happen. However, disaster will always affect human activities in the form of physical damages, financial losses and psychological traumas.
Indonesian archipelago is one of the regions having the most active volcanoes in the world, commonly called as The Ring of Fire. That is why Indonesia has a high vulnerability in geological hazards. Located between oceans and plains which are characterized by plenty of hills and mountains, Central Java becomes prone to the volcanic eruption. Some of volcanic mountains located in Central Java are Merapi, Slamet, Sindoro, and Sumbing. Merapi has the highest number of eruptions in the previous years and have caused a great deal of damages and losses in majority areas of Central Java. Merapi is surrounded by four districts,i.e. Magelang, Boyolali, Klaten in Central Java Province and Sleman in D.I Yogyakarta. Merapi eruption has caused 389 casualties in D.I. Yogyakarta and Central Java (BNPB, 27 November 2010).
On October 2010, Merapi erupted and subsequently lasted until early November of 2010. It was marked as the 100-year eruption cycle and the largest volcanic eruption since 1994 (compared to similar disasters in the period of 1994, 1997, 1998, 2001 and 2006). This cycle has a significant eruption impact by the glide of hot cloud along 18 km which flows through Gendol (BPPTK5, 2011). Hot cloud is equivalent to awan panas in Indonesian language or in Javanese term is known as wedhus gembel. Merapi eruption in 2010 cost immense losses of assets and lives. It has destroyed Balerante Village in Klaten, also Kepuharjo Village, Wukirsari Village and Argomulyo Village in Sleman. More than 300 families were left homeless, 386 people died while more than 70,000 people were
evacuated to the emergency shelters due to the hot cloud strike. The detailed events of Merapi eruptions can be seen in the table below:
TABLE I.1
MERAPI ERUPTIONS INCIDENT 1930-2010
No. Year Incident
1 1930 Eruption destroyed 13 villages and killed about 1,400 people.
2 1994 Eruption destroyed some villages and killed several people.
3 1998 Vertical eruption, there were no victims.
4 2001-2003 Long period of volcanic activity enhancement.
5 2006 Long period of volcanic activity enhancement, along with the spreading of hot cloud.
6 2010
Eruption damaged 4 districts (Magelang, Sleman, Klaten and Boyolali). More than 300 families were left homeless, 386 people died,
and more than 70,000 people were evacuated.
Source: Directory of Volcanology, ESDM Department in RPB Jateng 20112-2016
According to BNPB (2010), Merapi eruption has destroyed 3.705 units of house in Central Java Province and 3.424 units of house in D.I Jogjakarta Province. Klaten is the most affected area In Central Java, approximately 501 ha of land had degraded and covered by volcanic ash in Balerante Village.
Furthermore the severely damaged settlements impacted by the eruption reached 496 ha (BNPB, 2010).
The research is conducted to comprehend alternative locations for settlements in disaster zones. The research is entitled ―Relocation Model for Merapi Eruption’s Impacted Settlement in Balerante Village, Kemalang Sub- District, Klaten District.‖
1.2 Problem Formulation and Research Question
People who are affected by Merapi eruption need a secured place for permanent settlements because Merapi eruption has damaged most of their settlements. Based on the problem formulation, the research question in this study is ―How is the GIS relocation model for impacted settlements of Merapi eruption?‖
1.3 Purpose and Objectives 1.3.1 Purpose
The purpose of this research is to determine GIS relocation model for impacted settlements of Merapi eruption.
1.3.2 Objectives
The objectives of the research are as follows:
1. Identifying settlements relocation’s variables and analyzing sub-model based on the natural physical aspect.
2. Identifying settlements relocation’s variables and analyzing sub-model based on governmental aspect.
3. Identifying settlements relocation’s variables and analyzing sub-model based on the community aspect.
4. Analyzing the output of settlements relocation’s model.
5. Validation of settlements relocation’s model.
1.4 Scopes of Research
The scopes are divided into two parts: substantial scopes and spatial scopes.
Substantial scopes are related to limitation and research focus while spatial scopes are related to location.
1.4.1 Spatial Scopes
This research is conducted in Klaten where the area of study is specifically taken place in Kemalang sub-district. Kemalang is very vulnerable to Merapi’s activities because it near the hazardous slopes of Merapi. The boundaries of Kemalang are:
North : Boyolali District
South : Manisrenggo Sub-District East : Karangnongko Sub-District West : Sleman District
1.4.2 Substantial Scopes
This study is limited and focuses on discussing settlements relocation’s model based on its suitability from natural physical, governmental and community aspect.
1. In terms of the natural physical aspect on GIS sub-model, the assessment is based on natural physical condition and uses quantitative approach.
Weighting overlay and scoring process are done in ArcGIS.
2. In terms of the governmental aspect on GIS sub-model, the assessment is based on spatial land use regulation and government policy. Spatial overlay, buffer process, scoring and weighting are done in ArcGIS.
3. In terms of the community aspect on GIS sub-model, the assessment is based on accessibility of infrastructures and public facilities. Buffer process, scoring and spatial overlay are done in ArcGIS.
Source: Spatial Plan of Klaten, 2011
FIGURE I.1.
ADMINISTRATIVE MAP OF KEMALANG
1.5 Research Framework
FIGURE I.2
FRAMEWORK ANALYSIS
Source: Analysis of Researcher, 2014
Research Question: how is the relocation model for impacted settlements of eruption?
Alternative location Alternative location analysis for
impacted settlements relocation
Identification of physical condition on the impacted
areas of the eruption
Recommendation
Government regulation analysis of settlements relocation
BACKGROUND
ANALYSIS
FINDINGS Relocation model for the
impacted area of eruption
Identification of government regulation related to land use and volcano hazard area Merapi Volcano Eruption
2010 (Mount Merapi)
Settlement relocation is needed Loss and damage caused by
Merapi Eruption
Relocation model based on the physical aspect Relocation model based on
community aspect
Relocation model based on governmental aspect Variables identification based on the
community aspect o Basic infrastructures
accessibility
o Public facilities availability
1.6 Previous Research
One study and another might be ,but they must have different main discussion topics. Merapi volcano has been studied extensively by Indonesian and international teams, leading to improved understanding of the volcano's seismology (Hidayat et al., 2000), deformation (Voight et al., 2000b; Young et al., 2000), potential field geophysics (Jousset et al., 2000; Tiede et al., 2005), gas emissions (Zimmer and Erzinger, 2003), petrology (Chadwick et al., 2008;), physical volcanology (Charbonnier and Gertisser, 2008), lahar inundation (Lavigne et al., 2000), and risk assessment and management (Wilson et al., 2014;
Jenkins et al., 2014).
An important lesson from this special issue is the warning outlined by several authors hat Merapi volcano is capable of greater eruptions than those in the 20th century – the eruptions that may have disastrous consequences. The eruption in 4th and 5th November, 2010, was a ―100-year event‖ (Surono et al., 2012). It was approximately 10 times larger and more explosive than the eruptions of the past several decades, and it validated the concern about Merapi — that greater and more hazardous eruptions, like the one that took place in 1872, are a continuing threat at the volcano (Camus et al., 2000; Jousset et al., 2013; Surono et al., 2012; Newhall et al., 2000; Voight et al., 2000b).
The discussion about Merapi’s risk assessment, mitigation and other geothermal studies are commonly discussed, but the research that is intended to analyze about GIS relocation model based on physical condition, governmental and community aspects might be a new thing. Quiet different from other studies, this paper elaborates three aspects: physical, governmental and community aspects as an input in making GIS model for relocating the settlements existing in hazard zones area.
The table 1.1 below shows the differences between the research and some previous studies by comparing the topics of discussion and the results of each study conducted by other researchers:
TABLE I.2
THE COMPARISON WITH PREVIOUS RESEARCH
N
o Authors Title Discussion topic Output Location –year
1 Hartadi, Arief
Land Suitability for Settlement Based on Physical Characteristic in Fak-Fak
Land use analysis
Physical condition and infrastructure analysis
Climate condition analysis
Disaster vulnerability analysis
Residential land use directives
Fak-Fak- 2009
2 Noermansyah, Imam
GIS Model on Evaluation of Land Suitability for Settlement in Semarang
Basic coefficient building analysis
Accessibility analysis
Public facility aspect analysis
GIS model on land suitability evaluation
Land suitability evaluation model in Semarang
Semarang- 2013
3 Nugroho, Ariyadi Susilo
Analysis of Merapi Eruption Risk Level Towards the Settlement in Kemalang, Klaten
Land use analysis of Kemalang
Analysis of settlements in hazard area of Merapi
Analysis of the highest-risk villages affected by the eruption
Merapi disaster risk
classification in each village of Kemalang Evacuation routes directives
Kemalang – 2013
N
o Authors Title Discussion topic Output Location –year 4
Gandapurnama, Arif
Acceptence of Community Based Disaster Mitigation in Cangkringan, Sleman
Analysis of disaster mitigation parameter
Anlysis of community based disaster mitigation
Analysis of community acceptance
Public acceptance in study area shows that most people have positive appreciation toward the program, but some marginal groups still have not been able to receive the program well.
Cangkring an-2013
5 Pramitasari, Angrenggani
Relocation Model for Impacted Settlement by Merapi Eruption in Balerante Village, Kemalang, Klaten
Analysis of natural physical aspect
Analysis of government aspect
Analysis of the community aspect
Analysis of GIS relocation model for impacted settlement of Merapi eruption
GIS relocation model for settlement in volcano hazard zones
Relocation area destination
Kemalang - 2014
1.7 Data Collecting Technique
Data collection can be done in many ways. Based on the source, there are two types of data, primary and secondary data. Primary data is obtained by interview and observation while secondary data is obtained by literature review.
a. Primary data collection
Primary data are obtained directly from the data source at the location of research. They are obtained from the Chief / Locality (Kepala Desa) of Balerante Village, who acts as an object of the research, and Government Official (Division Head of Infrastructures and Physical Planning, Bappeda Klaten), who acts as an expert from government representative. Data related to natural physical, governmental and community aspect are obtained by interview and observation.
Source: Analysis of Researcher, 2014
continued
b. Secondary data collection
Secondary data are obtained from the agency (Bappeda, BPBD, and BPS) and literature survey. The secondary data are used to gain land use data, natural physical condition data, disaster hazard zones data, and other data related to settlements and land suitability on disaster area. The details of data requirements are described in the following table:
TABLE I.3
DATA REQUIREMENT AND COLLECTING METHOD
No Research Objectives
Data Time
Period
Sources Data Collecting Methods 1. Identifying
variables of settlements relocation and analyzing sub- model based on the natural physical aspect.
Land slopes map
Geology map
Soil type map
Hydrology map
2011 Bappeda Klaten District
Institutional survey
Literature Review
Secondary data analysis
2. Identifying variables of settlements relocation and analyzing sub- model based on governmental aspect.
Conservation map &
river flow map
Existing settlement map
Volcano hazard zone map
2011 Bappeda Klaten District
Institutional survey
Secondary data analysis
Interview
Descriptive analysis
3. Identifying variables of settlements relocation and analyzing sub- model based on the community aspect.
Basic infrastructure map: collector road, evacuation route, shelter point, high- voltage tower
Public facility map (education facility, health facility, worship facility)
2011 Bappeda Klaten
BPS Central Java Province
Institutional survey
Secondary data analysis
Interview
Descriptive analysis
4. Analyzing the output of settlements relocation’s model.
Natural physical aspect’s variables
Governmental aspect’s variables
Community aspect’s variables
Present time
Bappeda Klaten
Primary and secondary data analysis
No Research Objectives
Data Time
Period
Sources Data Collecting Methods 5. Validation of
settlements relocation’s model.
Settlement Relocation Map
Present time
Study Area (Kemalang sub-district)
Google earth
1.8 Research Approach and Method
This research uses a quantitative approach. As defined by Soegiono (2008), research must have concrete, empiric, measurable, rational, and systematic, also based on scientific principles. This study is considered to be conducted under quantitative approach because the research establishes some variables to address problem formulation. Creswell stated the design survey as a kind of research which is dealing with quantitative formulation, numbers, and trend of population by observing some samples, and generating conclusions to represent the population (Creswell, 2008).
This research also uses descriptive quantitative method to explain and explore more about the phenomena. In descriptive ways, relocation model for impacted settlements by the eruption can be formulated. Each indicator in natural condition of a scope area is converted in value and score. The conversion is needed to simplify numeric analysis process, so the land suitability degree of settlements on relocation model can be obtained.
Simulation Model Using Model Builder
Simulation models are performed using GIS application in ArcGIS software through an additional builder model. Model builder is chosen because it is easily understood, executed, saved, and modified by the user.
Modelling with the model builder is done by analyzing spatial data such as base maps in the form of physical aspects of nature, aspects of government and community aspects to determine settlements relocation model. The initial phase of the simulation model is to perform spatial data input to be processed spatially.
Spatial processing with the model builder is done automatically from the process of changing the map format and overlay analysis to generating output in the form of spatial data such as referral maps of relocation settlements.
Source: Analysis of Researcher, 2014
continued
There are two types of overlay analysis conducted in this model simulation. The first is weighted overlay. It is an overlay process by giving weight to each variable. Weighting is done to show the influence of each variable to its related aspect. Weighted overlay is expressed in percent (%) with the total amount of 100%. The second is union overlay. Its the process of combining spatial data without giving weights; the influence of each variable is assumed to be equal or the same.
1.8.1 Research Objects
Research object must be specified to help data collection in the process of the study. The object is society members who live in Balerante Village, Klaten District.
1.8.2 Variables
Variables are selected based on the theory synthesis and interview.
Variables determine what kind of data need to be collected in the field. Based on the theory synthesis, there are several variables grouped based on each aspect:
a. Natural physical aspect: land slopes, geology condition, hydrology condition, and soil type condition.
b. Governmental aspect: conservation and riverbanks area, existing settlement area, and volcano hazard zones.
c. Community aspect: existing road, evacuation route, shelter point, high voltage wires (sutet) and public facilities availability.
1.9 Population and Sampling
Population is a group of objects or subjects that are targeted by research.
Soegiyono (2001) stated that the population is a generalized region consisting of the objects/subjects that have certain qualities and characteristics which are determined by the investigator to be studied in order to draw conclusions.
Population in this research is the society members of Kemalang, especially those who live in disaster zone of eruption in Balerante Village. Samples, according to Sugiyono (2004), are parts of the number and characteristics possessed by
population. Due to the large number of population, sample method is needed. In this study, sampling technique applied is non-probability sampling technique using purposive sampling. Unlike other various techniques that can be used under probability sampling, the goal of purposive sampling is not to randomly select units from a population to create samples with the intention of making generalisations from that sample regarding the population of interest. The main goal of purposive sampling is to focus on particular characteristics of a population becoming the topic of interest to answer the research question. In other words, purposive sampling selects people based on the particular purpose of the experiment. The chosen samples in this study are the representative of government officials and communities.
1. Name : Ir. Sugeng Santoso, MM
Institution : City’s Development Planning Board (BAPPEDA) Position : Division Head of Infrastructures and Physical Planning
Email : -
Contact : (+6272) 321046
Office address : Jalan Pemuda, Gedung Pemuda II, Lt. II, Klaten
2. Name : Sukono
Institution : Balerante Local Office
Position : Chief / Locality (Kepala Desa) of Balerante Village
Email : -
Contact : (+6281) 229 184 488
Office address : Tegalweru, Balerante, Kemalang, Klaten
1.10 Analytical Method
Analytical method process is divided into several analyses; analysis based on natural physical aspect, governmental aspect and community aspect. Scoring and buffer analyses are applied in the process. The next stage of analysis is analyzing the model simulation using model builder. Then, the last stage is making a descriptive analysis on the final output of the model:
Relocation model analysis based on the natural physical aspect
Natural physical aspect condition has four variables on its analysis: land slopes, soil types, geology conditions and hydrology conditions. Scoring method is intended to make a priority in choosing an available area for settlement relocation based on the hierarchical level. A higher score means a better location compared to a lower score score. Besides, an overlay process from each variable is also conducted to obtain natural physical aspect criteria in desired level.
Overlay analysis is an analysis process through the attachment of several spatial data to produce new information maps or spatial data (Buchori, 2008). Overlay analysis technique is performed with the help of GIS software, and the overlay process used in this step is weighted overlay function.
Relocation model analysis based on the governmental aspect
Local governmental aspect has four variables on its analysis: existing settlement area, hazard zones area, conservation area and riverbanks area. Same with the first analysis (natural physical aspect), the analysis process uses a scoring method and overlay process. Union overlay is chosen instead of weighted overlay because the variables in governmental aspect have functioned as elimination variables or in other words, the variables consist of restriction area, so all of them are equally important. Thus, there is no need to add weigh for each variable. Other than overlay and scoring methods, buffer process is also applied in this analysis.
Relocation model analysis based on the community aspect
Variables of the community aspect are existing road, evacuation route, shelter point, high voltage wires (sutet) and public facilities. The focus of this analysis is the basic need of community in the settlements area which is the accessibility of infrastructures and facilities. Similar to the other analyses, the analysis in the community aspect applies buffer, scoring and overlay methods.
Description of final model
Subsequent analysis is performed in the form of a descriptive analysis. The purpose of this analysis is to identify areas that are available or not available for relocation area. The identification depends on the scoring hierarchy from the lowest to the highest score. In this stage, the model output which is known as relocation map is classified based on its criteria to find the alternative settlement relocation area.
1.11 Analytical Framework
The analytical process is classified into three aspects i.e. input, process and output. The summary of analytical process is shown by the following diagram:
Available Land for Settlement Relocation
Source: Analysis of Researcher, 2014
FIGURE I.3
ANALYTICAL FRAMEWORK
Land suitability based on the physical aspect
Union Overlay Governmental aspect:
Conservation area map
Riverbanks buffer map
Existing settlement map
Volcano zones map
Governmental Aspect Analysis Physical aspect:
Land use map
Geology map
Lithology map
Hydrology map Weighted Spatial Overlay Using GIS Physical Aspect Analysis
INPUT PROCES OUTPUT
Weighted Spatial Overlay Using GIS
Land Suitability Analysis Based on Physical Aspect
Conversion from raster to polygon Community aspect:
Existing road map
Evacuation route
Shelter point
Electrical tower point
Public facilities availability
Community Aspect Analysis Buffer - Union Overlay
