Volume 20 Number 4 Article 2
4-30-2018
Disaggregation and Forecasting of the Monthly Indonesian Gross Disaggregation and Forecasting of the Monthly Indonesian Gross Domestic Product (GDP)
Domestic Product (GDP)
Profita Sumunar Luthfiana Sekolah Tinggi Ilmu Statistik (STIS) Nasrudin Nasrudin
Sekolah Tinggi Ilmu Statistik (STIS), nasrudin@stis.ac.id
Follow this and additional works at: https://bulletin.bmeb-bi.org/bmeb Recommended Citation
Recommended Citation
Luthfiana, Profita Sumunar and Nasrudin, Nasrudin (2018) "Disaggregation and Forecasting of the Monthly Indonesian Gross Domestic Product (GDP)," Bulletin of Monetary Economics and Banking: Vol.
20: No. 4, Article 2.
DOI: [https://doi.org/]10.21098/bemp.v20i4.905
Available at: https://bulletin.bmeb-bi.org/bmeb/vol20/iss4/2
This Article is brought to you for free and open access by Bulletin of Monetary Economics and Banking. It has been accepted for inclusion in Bulletin of Monetary Economics and Banking by an authorized editor of Bulletin of Monetary Economics and Banking. For more information, please contact journalbankindonesia2018@gmail.com.
DISAGGREGATION AND FORECASTING OF THE MONTHLY INDONESIAN GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT (GDP)
ęȱȱę1ǰȱ2
1ȱ ěȱȱȱȱ ȱĜ
2ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ǻǼȱ ȱ ǻȱ Dzȱ
ȓǯǯǼ
ȱ ȱ ȱ ǻ Ǽȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ
ǯȱ ǰȱȱǰȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱǯȱ
ȱȱǰȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ ǰȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱ¢ȱ
ȱȱȱǯȱǰȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱȱǻȱ
ȱ¡Ǽǯȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ŘŖŖŖȦȱȱŘŖŗŜȱȦȱǰȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱ ȱŘŖŗŝǯȱ
ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱęǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱ
ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ěȱ Ĵȱ ȱ ǯȱǰȱ ȱ ¢ȱ ȱ
ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ
¡ȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ ȱŘŖŗŝȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱ ȱ
ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ǻȱ Ǽǯȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ
ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱǯ
Keywords: disaggregation, monthly GDP, coincident indicator, industrial production index, ARIMA
ȱęDZȱŘŘǰȱśřǰȱŖŗǰȱřŘȱ
ABSTRACT
Bulletin of Monetary Economics and Banking, Volume 20, Number 4, April 2018 530
ŗǯȱ
ǰȱ ¢ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ
¢ȱȱȱȱ¢ǯȱ ȱȱȱǻ Ǽȱȱȱ
ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢3ǯȱȱ
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ǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱ
ȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ
ǰȱǰȱȱ¢ǯȱȱȱȱȱȱǻǼȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ
ȱ ǯȱ ǰȱ ȱ ¢ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ
ǰȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱ
ǰȱȱ¢ȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ
ȱ¢ȱǯȱ
ȱȱǰȱȱ¢ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ
ǯȱǰȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱ4ǯȱ
ȱǰȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ
ȱȱȱ ȱȱǻ Ǽȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱ
ě5ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ
ȱȱȱǰȱ ȱĚȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȦ
ȱȱǯȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ
ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱŜǯ
ȱ ȱ ȱ ǰȱ ¢ȱ ȱ ȱ ¢Ȭȱ ȱ Ğȱ
ȱ ȱ ěȱ ȱ ȱ ǯȱ ǰȱ ¢ȱ ȱ ȱ
ȱȱȱȱǰȱ¢ȱ¢ǰȱĚǰȱǰȱȱȱ
ǰȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ǯȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ
ȱ¢ȱȱ¢ǰȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱĜǯȱȱ
ȱȱȱȱ ǰȱȱȱĴȱȱĞȱȱ ȱȱ ȱ
ȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ
ǰȱ ¢ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ¢ǰȱ ȱ ȱ ǰȱ ęǰȱ¢ȱȱȱ¢ǯ
ȱȱȱǰȱȱȬȱǻ¢ǼȱȱĚȱȱȱ
ȱȱȱŝǯȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ¢ǰȱȱȱȱȱ
ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ
3ȱ ǯȱ ǯȱ ǰȱǻŘŖŗŗǼǰȱȱǻŝȱǼǰȱȱǰȱ ȱǯ
4ȱ ȱǯȱȃȱȱ ȱȱȱǻ ǼȄȱĴDZȦȦ ǯǯǯ
ȦȦȬȦȦȬ ȬȦǯ¡ǰȱŘŖŗŝ
5ȱ ȱǯȱȃȱȱ ȱȱȱǻ ǼȄȱĴDZȦȦ ǯǯǯ
ȦȦȬȦȦȬ ȬȦǯ¡ǰȱŘŖŗŝ
Ŝȱ ȱ ȱ ǰȱ ǯȱ ȃȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ
¢ǯȄȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ
¢ȱĜȱȱ¢ȱǰȱŘŖŗŚǰȱǯȱŗǯ
ŝȱ ȱet alǯȱȃȬȱ ȱȱȱ ŝȱDZȱȱȱ
ȱ ȱ ȱ Ȅǯȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ǰȱ
¢ȱŘŖŖśǯ
Disaggregation and Forecasting of the Monthly Indonesian Gross Domestic Product (GDP) 531
¢8ǯȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ
¢ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ ǯȱȱȱȱȱȱ
ȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱǰȱ¢ȱ
ǰȱȱȱȱǻȱȱĴǰȱŘŖŖśǼǯȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱ
ȱ ¢ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ¡ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ
¢ȱǻǼȱȱȱȱȱ¢ǰȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱǯȱ
ȱ¢ȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ
ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ǯȱǰȱ¢ȱ£ȱ
ȱȱȱĴǰȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ¡ǯ
ǰȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ DZȱ ǻŗǼȱ ȱ ȱ ¢ȱ ȱ
ȱ ȱ ȱ ¢ȱ ȱ ȱ Dzȱ ǻŘǼȱ ȱ ȱ ¢ȱ
ȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱDzȱǻřǼȱȱ¢ȱȱ
¢ȱ ȱȱŘŖŗŝǯ
ǯȱ
ȱ ȱ ȱ ǻ Ǽȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ¢ȱ ȱ
ȱȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱęȱȱȱȱ
ȱ ¢ȱ ȱ ȱ 9ǯȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ¢ȱ ȱ ¢ȱ ȱ
ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ¢Ȃȱ¢ǯȱ
ȱ ȱ ȱ ǰȱ ¢ǰȱ ǰȱ ȱ ǰȱ ȱ ȱ
¢ǰȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ
ȱȱȱȱ10ǯ
ȱ ȱ ǰȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ
¢ȱ¢ǯȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ
ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ǯȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ
ȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ
ȱȱȱ¢ȱ¢ǰȱ¢ȱǰȱǰȱȱȱǯȱ
ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ
ǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ
ȱȱȱȱȱȱǻǼȱȱȱȱȱ11ǯ
ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ
Ȧȱ ȱ Ȭȱ Ȭǯȱ ǰȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ
ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱǻǼǯȱȱȱȱȱ
ȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ
ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ
8ȱ ǰȱ ȱ ȱ Ȭǰȱ ǯȱ ȃȱ ¡ȱ ȱ ȱ
ȱȱDZȱȱȱȱǰ” ȱȱǰȱȱŘŖŖřǯ
9ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ǯȱ ȃȱ ȱ Ȅȱ ĴDZȦȦ ǯǯ
ǯȦȱȦ ȦȱȦŗŗǛ ŗȩȬĞȬŗ
10ȱǰȱ ǰȱ ǻŘŖŗŜǼǰȱ ȱ ¢ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ¢ǰȱ
ǰȱǯ
11ȱȱȱǰȱǯǰȱop.citǯǰȱǯȱŚǯ
Bulletin of Monetary Economics and Banking, Volume 20, Number 4, April 2018 532
ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ¢ȱ ȱ ȱ ǰȱ
ǰȱ¢ǰȱȱȱǯ
ǰȱ ȱ ȱ ŗşŜŘȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ¢ȱ £ȱ
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ȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȬ¢ȱǯȱȱ¡ǰȱȱ
¢¢ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ¢ǯȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ
ǰȱ ǰȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ
ȱ ȱǯ
ȱ ¡ǰȱ ȱ ȱ ǰȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ
ǰȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ¢ȱ ȱ ǻ ȱ ¢Ǽȱ ȱ ȱ
¢ȱ ȱ ǻȱ ¢Ǽȱ ¢ȱ £ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ǻȱ
Ǽǯȱ ǰȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ¢ȱ ȱ ȱ
ȱȱȱǯȱǰȱȱȱěȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱ
ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ¢ȱ ȱ ǯȱ ǰȱ ȱ
ěȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ěȱ ȱ ¢ȱ ȱ ǯȱ
ȱȱȱȱȱȱ 13ǯ
12ȱ ǰȱǯȱǯȱȃ¢ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ
ȱȱȱ¢ȱǰȄȱȱȱĜȱ, ǯȱŗşǰȱǯȱřǰȱŘŗśȬ Řřśǯ
13ȱ¡ǰȱȱȱǰȱǯȱȃȱȱȱȱȄǰȱȱȱ
ǰȱȱŘŖŗřǰȱŞŖȬŞŝǯ DZ
ȱ DZȱȱȱȱDz pȱ DZȱȱȱDz
Dȱ DZȱȱ¡Dz
ulȱ DZȱȱěȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ
¢ȱȱ
ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯ ǻŗǼ
ȱȱȱǻǼ ¢
ȱ ȱȱ ȱȱ
ǰȱȬĴ ȱȱȱ ȱ
ȱ
Ȭǰȱ£ǰȱĴ ȱǁƽȱŗȱȱ ȱ
ȱ
DZȱ¡ǰȱȱǭȱȱǻŘŖŗřǼȱȱ£ȱǻŘŖŖŜǼǯ
ȱŗǯ
ȱȱ
Disaggregation and Forecasting of the Monthly Indonesian Gross Domestic Product (GDP) 533
ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ Ğȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ
¢ǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ
¢ǯȱ ǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ
ǰȱȱȱęȱȱǻȱȱǼȱȱĞȱȱȱǰȱȱȱ
ȱȱǻ£ǰȱŘŖŖŜǼǯȱ ǰȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ
ȱȱ¢ǯȱ ǰȱȱȱ ȱǻŘŖŖřǼǰȱȱȱȱ
ȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ
ȱ ȱ ǰȱ ǰȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ŘŖŖřǰȱ ȱ
ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ǯȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ǿZtȀȱ ȱtȱƽȱŗǰdzǰmnȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȦȱǻȱ
¢Ǽǯȱnǃŗȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǻ ȱǼǰȱǯǯǰȱ
¢ǯȱmǃŘȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ
ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ǯȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ǿWtȀȱ ȱ ȱseriesȱ ȱ ȱ preliminary estimatesȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ǯȱ¡ǰȱȱ
ȱ ȱǿZtȀȱȱǿWtȀȱȱȱ ǯ
ȱStȱ ȱ ȱ ěȱ ȱ ȱ ¢ȱ ȱ ȱ £ȱ
ǯȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱǯȱ
ȱȱȱȱǻǼȱȱȱ¡ȱȱĴȱ
ȱȱǿStȀȱ ȱȱ ȱǯ
ǻŘǼ
ȱߖSȱ ȱɅSȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ǻǼȱ ȱ ȱ ǻǼȱ ¢ȱ ȱ
¡ȱȱȱȱȱĞȱȱǻǼȱȱ ǯ
ǻřǼ
ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱ
. ǿetȀȱȱ ȱȱ ȱ£ȱȱȱȱ ǯ
ȱ ǿWtȀȱ ȱ ȱ ¡ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ
ȱǻǼȱȱȱ ǯ
ǻŚǼ ǻśǼ
ȱdǻBǼȱȱȱěȱȱȱǿdǻBǼWtȀȱȱ¢ǯȱߖWȱǻBǼ ȱΌWȱǻBǼȱ
ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ǯȱ ǿutȀȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ £ȱ ȱ ȱ
ȱ ǯȱ ȱǿetȀȱȱǿutȀȱȱȱȱǯ
ȱȱȱȱěȱȱǻSǼȱȱȱ Ĵȱȱ ǯ
ǻŜǼ
ǻŝǼ
Bulletin of Monetary Economics and Banking, Volume 20, Number 4, April 2018 534
ȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ
ȱȱ ǯȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱ Ĵȱȱ¡ȱȱ
ȱ ǯ
ȱ ȱȱ ȱ ȱȱ ȱȱ
¡ȱȱmn×mnȱ£ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱǻŗǼǰȱȱęȱȬȱ
ȱ ȱΜS,1ǰȱȱȱȬȱȱ ȱΜS,2ǰȱȱȱǯ
ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǻǼǰȱǯǯȱ ǻY1ǰdzǰYnǼ’ǰȱȱȱ Ĵȱȱ DZ
ǻŞǼ
ȱiȱƽȱŗǰŘǰǯǯǯǰnǯ
cjȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ¢ȱ ȱ ǯȱ
ȱ ȱ ȱ ¢ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ Yiȱ ȱ ȱ Ě ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱȱȱĚ ȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱǰȱ
ȱȱȱȱ¡ȱ¢ȱ ȱ ȱmƽřȱȱȱ
ȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ¡ǰȱȱCȱ¡ȱǻȱ¡ǼǰȱYǰȱȱZ
ȱęȱȱ ǯ
ǻşǼ
ȱIȱȱȱ¢ȱ¡ȱȱ۪ȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ
ȱşȱȱȱ Ĵȱȱ ǯ
ǻŗŖǼ ǻŗŗǼ ǻŗŘǼ
ȱŘȱȱȱ Ĵȱȱ ǯ
ǻŗřǼ
ȱWȱ ƽȱ ǻW1ǰdzǰWmnǼȂǯȱEǻZȩWǼƽWȱ ȱ ȱW ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ
ȱȱȱȱǻǼȱȱZȱ ȱȱȱWǯȱǰȱȱ Şȱ ȱ ȱ ǯȱ ǰȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱȱZȱ ȱȱWȱȱYȱȱȱ ǯ
ǻŗŚǼ
ȱA ȱȱȱ¡ȱ ȱȱ ȱǯ
ǻŗśǼ
ǻŗŜǼ
ȱȱȱȬȱǰȱȱȱȱ¡ȱ ȱ
ȱ¢ȱȱǯȱȱęȱ¡ȱȱȱ¢ȱ ǯ
Disaggregation and Forecasting of the Monthly Indonesian Gross Domestic Product (GDP) 535
ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱęȱȱȱǿWtȀȱȱȱǻǼȱ ȱ ǿZtȀȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱǿWtȀǰȱȱ ȱȱȱDZȱ
ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ ǯ
ǻŗŝǼ
ȱ ȱ ȱ ¢ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ǯȱ ȱ
¢ǰȱȱȃȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱ Ȅȱ¢ȱȱȱǯȱǻŘŖŖśǼȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ
¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ǯȱ
ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ
ǯȱ ǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ
¢ȱ ȱ ȱ ŘŖŖřȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȃ¢ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ¢ȱ
ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȄȱ¢ǯȱȱȱ¢ǰȱ
¢ȱ ȱȱȱ¡ȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱ¢ȱȱ
ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱ
ȱȱęǯȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱĴȱȱ ŘŖŖřȱȱȱȱȃȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ
¢ȱȱ¢ȱǯȄȱȱȱ¢ǰȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱ ȱȱ
¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ
ȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ
ȱ ȱ ȱ Ěȱ ¢ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ¡ȱ ǯȱ ȱ
ȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ǯ
ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ǰȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ £ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ
ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ
ȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱ
ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱ
ȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ
¡ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ¡ǯ
ǯȱ
řǯŗǯȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ
ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǻǼȱȱŘŖŖŖȱ
ȱŘŖŗŜǯȱȱęȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ
ȱǻǼȱȱŘŖŖŖȱȱŘŖŗŖǯȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ¡ȱ
ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱǻǼȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ŘŖŖŖȱȱŘŖŗŖǯȱȱ¢ȱȱǰȱȱȱǻǼȱȱȱȱȱ
ȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡ǯ
ȱ ȱȱ ȱěȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ
ȱŘŖŗŖȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱŘŖŗŖȱ ȱ
ȱȱ¢ȱȱŘŖŖŖȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱŘŖŗŖȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱ
ȱŘŖŗŖǯȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱ¢ǰȱ¢ǰȱȱ ǻŗŞǼ
Bulletin of Monetary Economics and Banking, Volume 20, Number 4, April 2018 śřŜ
ǯȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ
ȱǰȱǯǯǰȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱŘŖŗŝǯ
řǯŘȱęȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ
ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ǯȱȱȱȱ
ȱ Ě ȱ ǯȱ ȱ ǰȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ¢ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ
¢ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ¢ȱ ǯȱ ȱ ǰȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ
ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱǯȱ
ǰȱ ¢ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ǻǼȱ ȱ ¢ȱ ǯȱ
ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ¢ȱ ȱ ȱ ¢ȱ ǰȱ ȱ
ȱ ȱ ǻmǼȱ ȱmƽřȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ
ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ¡ȱ ȱ ǯȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ
ȱ ȱ ȱ ǰȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ¡ȱ ȱ ȱ ¢ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ
ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱ
¢ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȦǯȱ ǰȱȱ¢ȱ
ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱǰȱȱȱ
ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱǯǯǰȱ¢ȱ ȱěȱȱ
ǰȱ ǯǯǰȱ ¢ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ¢ȱ ȱ ǯȱ ȱ
ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ¡ȱ ǻǼȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ
ȱ ǻȱ ȱ ȱ Ǽǯȱ ȱ ¢ȱ ǰȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ
¢ȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱ ǯȱ ǰȱ
ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ
ȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱ
ȱȱȱ ȱ ¢ǯ
ǻŗşǼ
DZ
Yiȱ DZȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ ǻȱǼȱ
PDBiȱ DZȱ ȱȱȱȱŘŖŗŖȱȱȱǻȱǼȱ IPAGRiȱ DZȱ¡ȱȱȱǻǼȱȱȱ
IPtȱ DZȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱǻǼȱ
ȱ¢ȱŘŖŗŖȱȱȱ iȱ DZȱŗǰȱŘǰȱǯǯǯǰȱŜŞȱǻŘŖŖŖȦȱȱŘŖŗŜȦǼ tȱ DZȱŗǰȱŘǰȱǯǯǯǯǰȱŘŖŚȱǻŘŖŖŖȦŗȱȱŘŖŗŜȦŗŘǼǯ
řǯřǯȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱ
ȱ ȱ ęȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ¢Ȧȱ ȱ
ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ¢Ȧȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ
ȱěǯȱȱ¢ȱ¢ȱ ȱǰȱȱ ȱȱ ǻŘŖǼ
Disaggregation and Forecasting of the Monthly Indonesian Gross Domestic Product (GDP) śřŝ
ȱȱȱ¢ȱ¢ȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ
ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ
¡ȱ ǻǼǯȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ¢ȱ ȱ
ǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ
ǰȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ¢ȱ ȱȱ ȱǯȱȱěȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ
ȱȱȱȱȱěǯȱǰȱȱȱěȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ¡ȱǻǼȱȱȱȱ
ȱ ěǯȱ ǰȱ ȱ ȱ ěȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ
ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱǯȱ
ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ
ǰȱȱ ȱȱȱěȱȱ ȱȱȱǻǼȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱěǰȱȱĴȱǻ£Ǽ14ǯȱǰȱȱȱěȱ
ȱ ȱȱȱȱĴǰȱȱȱ¢ȱȱǯȱ¢ȱ£ȱȱ
ȱȱ ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱ
ȱěǰȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ
ȱȱǯȱǰȱȱȱȱȱěȱȱȱ
ȱ ¢ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ěȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ
ȱ ěȱ ǯȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ěȱ ǰȱ ȱ
ȱ¡ȱ ȱȱǯȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱ¡ȱȱ
ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ěȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ěȱ
ǯ
14ȱǰȱ ȱ ǯȱ ȱ ȱ ǰȱ ȱ ǯȱ ȃȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ Ȅǰȱ
ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ¢ǰȱȱȱǻ¢ǼǰȱǯȱśŘǰȱǯȱřȱǻŗşşŖǼǰȱ ŚśřȬŚŜŝǰȱǯȱŚŜŜ
Aggregate GDP Initial Estimation of
Aggregate ȱě
Disaggregated Matrix
ȱě
=
=
+
+
The Aggregation Matrix
Initial Estimation of Disaggregate Disaggregate
PDB disagregat (Monthly GDP)
5 1
2
4 3
ȱŗǯ
ȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ
Bulletin of Monetary Economics and Banking, Volume 20, Number 4, April 2018 538
ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¡ǯȱ
ȱȱȱȱ ȱǯ
ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱǻZǼȱȱȱ¡ȱȱ ǯȱ ǻŘŗǼ
ǻǼȱ
ȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱǻSǼȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ
¢ȱ ȱȱȱ¡ȱȱ ǯ
ǻŘŘǼ
ǻŘřǼ ǻŘŚǼ
DZ
Y DZȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱ
Eȱ DZȱȱȱȱ
Dȱ DZȱȱȱě
}ȱ DZȱ¢ȱ
Wȱ DZ ¢ȱ¢ȱȦ
Sȱ DZȱȱěȱ Â DZȱȱ¡
Cȱ DZȱȱȱ¡
ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ
ǯ
ǻŘśǼ
ȱ ¢ȱ ¢ȱ ȱ ȱ ǻǼȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ
ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ
ȱȱȱȱȱȱ ǯȱ
ǻŘŜǼ
ȱ ȱ ěȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱȱ
ȱǻȱǼȱ ȱȱ ȱǯ
ǻŘŝǼ
ǻŘŞǼ
Disaggregation and Forecasting of the Monthly Indonesian Gross Domestic Product (GDP) 539
ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ǰȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ
ȱěȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ ȱȱǯ
ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ¢ȱ ȱ ěȱ ǰȱ ȱ
ȱěȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱ
ȱȱěȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ¢ǯ
ǻŘşǼ
ǰȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ
ěȱǻǼǯ
ǻřŖǼ
ȱ ¢ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ěȱ ȱ ȱ
ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ Ȭȱ ȱ ěȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ
ǯ
ǻřŗǼ
ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ǻǼȱȱȱȱ ǯ
ǻřŘǼ
Śǯȱȱȱ
ŚǯŗǯȱȱĴȱȱ ȱȱȱ¡ȱǻǼȱȱ
ȱǰȱȱŗǰȱȱ ȱ ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱřȱ ȱȱȱ
ȱȱȱŚǯȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱęȱȱȱ
ȱ ȱ¢ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ
ȱȱǰȱȱ ȱȱȱȱǯȱȱĴȱ¢ȱȱȱ
ȱ¢ǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱěȱǻȱŘǼǯ
ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ
¢ȱ ȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱǯȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱ
ȱȱȱ¢ǯȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǰȱ
ȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱǻ Ǽǯȱȱȱȱ
ǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ
ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱǰȱȱ
ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱ¢ȱ¢ȱȱ
ȱȱȱǰȱǰȱǰȱǰȱȱǯȱȱ
ǰȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱ ǰȱȱȱȱȱǰȱǯǯǰȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱ ȱ
ȱȱȱȱȱǯ
ǻřřǼ
Bulletin of Monetary Economics and Banking, Volume 20, Number 4, April 2018 540
ȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȦęȱȱǰȱȱȱ
ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱǯȱȱŘŖŗŘȱ
ȱŘŖŗśǰȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱȱŘŗǯřŗƖ15ǯȱǰȱ
ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱǻǼȱ ¢ȱȱȱ
ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱ ǻǼǯȱ ȱ ŘŖŗśǰȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ŚǰŘŞŜǰŞŜŘȱ ŗŜǯȱ
ǰȱ Ȃȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ śŝǰŖřŜǯşȱ ŗŝǯȱ ȱ ǰȱ ȱ ȱ
ȱȱȱ ȱşŞǯŜŞƖȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱ
ȱȱȱǯȱ
ȱȱĴȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ¡ȱ ǻǼȱȱȱ ȱĞȱȱȱȱȱȱ£ȱȱ¢ȱȱ
ȱ ȱ ǯȱ ȱ ǰȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ¢ȱ ȱ ȱ
ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱ
ȱĴȱȱ¢ȱ¢ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ
ȱ¡ȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȬǯ
15ȱȱ ȱ ȱ ǰȱ ǻŘŖŗŜǼǰȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ¢ȱ ŘŖŗŘȬŘŖŗŜǰȱǰȱǯ
ŗŜȱȱȱȱǯȱȃȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ
ȱŘŖŗŘȬŘŖŗśȄĴDZȦȦ ǯǯǯȦȦ ȦȦŗŖŞŗǰȱŘŖŗŝǯ
ŗŝȱȱȱȱǯȱȃȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱ ŘȬȱȱ¢ȱŘŖŗŖȬŘŖŗśȄĴDZȦȦ ǯǯǯȦȦ ȦȦŗŖŗŚǰȱ ŘŖŗŜǯ
1.000.000,00
800.000,00
600.000,00
400.000,00
200.000,00
0,00
150,00
125,00
100,00
75,00
50,00
25,00
Y IPAGR
1 Q 00 3 Q 00 1 Q 01 3 Q 01 1 Q 02 3 Q 02 1 Q 03 3 Q 03 1 Q 04 3 Q 04 1 Q 05 3 Q 05 1 Q 06 3 Q 06 1 Q 07 3 Q 07 1 Q 08 3 Q 08 1 Q 09 3 Q 09 1 Q 10 3 Q 10 1 Q 11 3 Q 11 1 Q 12 3 Q 12 1 Q 13 3 Q 13 1 Q 14 3 Q 14 1 Q 15 3 Q 15 1 Q 16 3 Q 16 Time
Source: BPS, processed
ȱŘǯȱ ȱȱǻǼȱȱȱ¡ȱȱǻ ǼȱȱŘŖŖŖȬŘŖŗŜ
Disaggregation and Forecasting of the Monthly Indonesian Gross Domestic Product (GDP) 541
ŚǯŘǯȱȱȱ¢ȱ ȱȱ¢ȱ
ȱęȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ
ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ
ȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱ ǻǼȱ ȱ ŗǯŖśǯȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ
ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ǯȱ ǰȱ ȱ ȱ
ȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȬĴȱȱȱǯȱȱ
ȱ ǰȱ ȱɏƸȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ¢ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ
ȱ ȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȬȱǻȬŗǼȱȱ
ȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȬǯȱȱɏƸȱȱȱȱĜȱȱ
ȱǯȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱɏƸȱȱȱŖǯŚŚŞǯ
Ğ ǰȱ ȱɏƸȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ǰȱ ǯǯǰȱ Yt’ƽYtȬŖ,448YtȬŗȱ ȱIPAGRt’ ƽȱIPAGRtȬŖ,448IPAGRtȬŗǯȱ ǰȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ
ȱ ȱ ǯȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ǰȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ
ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ
ǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ
ȱȱ ǯ
DZȱȱȱȱȱȱǯ
ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ
ȱ¢ȱȱȱȱŗǯŞŜȱȱȱŘǯȱȱȬȱȱȱȬȱȱ
ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱŖǯřŖŗŗȱȱŖǯŗŝśŘǰȱ¢ǰȱ
ȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ¢ȱȱ ȱ ǯȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ
ȱ¢ȱȱȱ2ǯȱȱȱęȱȱȱǰȱǯǯǰȱȬȱȱȱ
ǰȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱęȱěȱ ȱ ǯ
ǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱǻWǼȱ
¢ȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ ȱ¢ȱǯȱ
ǻřśǼ ǻŗŜşŞŞǰŘŖǼ ǻřŖśǰşśǼ
ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱęĴȱȱȱȱ
ǯȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱěȱȱȱ¢ȱȱ
ȱȱ ȱǻǼȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǻǼǯȱǰȱȱȱ
ěȱȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱȱȱ¡Ȭȱǰȱ
ȱȱěȱǰȱȱȱȱǻŗǰŖǼ4ǰȱȱȱȱȱ ǯ ǻřŜǼ
ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ Ȭ¡ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱǯȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ
ȱȱěǯ
ǻřŝǼ
Bulletin of Monetary Economics and Banking, Volume 20, Number 4, April 2018 542
ȱ ȱ ěȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ Ȭȱ ǻǼȱǯȱȱȱȱěȱȱȱȱ
ȱȱȱěȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱŚȱȱŗŘȱȱ
ǯȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ řŝǰȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ěȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ
ǯ
ȱ Ȭȱ ȱ ěȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ
ȱěȱȱȱȱěȱȱ ȱȱȱĴǯȱ
ȱęȱȱȱȱȱȱȱěȱǻ£Ǽȱȱȱȱȱ
ȱ ěǯȱ ȱ £ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ¢ȱ
ȱǯȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱěȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱěȱȱȱ
ȱȱřŝȱȱ ǯ
ǻřŞǼ
ǰȱȱęȱ¢ȱȱȱȱȱǻǼȱȱȱ ǻǼȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱȱȱȱĞȱȱǻǼȱȱ ǯ
ǻřşǼ
Ğȱ ȱ ¢ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ěȱ ǻǼȱ ȱ
ǰȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ¢ȱ ȱ
ȱȱǻǼȱěȱȱęȱȱȱȱ
ĜȱȱǯȱȱȱȱȱǻǼȱȱȱȱ ǻǼǰȱȱȱȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ
ȱǻǼȱȱpƽŖǯȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱǻǼȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ
ȱȱ18ȱȱǰȱȱǻǼǰȱqƽpƸŗȱȱqƽŗǯ
ȱȱȱŚŖǰȱȱȱ ȱȱȱŖȱǻǼȱ ȱȱȱȱȱ¡ȱȱ ǯ
ǻŚŖǼ
18ȱǰȱȱǯȱȱȱǰȱȱǯǰȱop.citǯǰȱǯȱŚŜŗǯ
ȱ ȱ ȱ ęȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ
ǯ
ǻŚŗǼ
ǻŚŘǼ
Disaggregation and Forecasting of the Monthly Indonesian Gross Domestic Product (GDP) 543
ǰȱȱȱȱȱȱǯȱȱqƽŗȱȱȱǻŗǼǰȱȱ ȱ
ȱ ȱ ȱ·FDȱ ǻkǼȱ ƽȱ Ŗȱ ȱk ƾȱ Ŗǰȱ ƹŗȱ ȱ·FSȱ ǻkǼȱ ƾȱ Ŗȱ ȱkȱ ƽȱ Ŗǰȱ ƹȱ ŗȱ ȱ ȱ
ȱǻǼȱȱȱȱ ȱǯ
¢ȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ǯ
ǻŚřǼ
ȱȱȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ
ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱ ¢ǯ ǻŚŚǼ
ȱȱȱǰȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ
ȱȱ ȱ ¢ǯ
ǻŚśǼ
ǰȱȱȱȱȱęȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ
ȱȱęȱ ȱȬŗȱǂȱΕȱǂȱŗȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱqƽŗȱȱȱǻŗǼȱ
ȱȱȱǯȱǰȱȱ¡ȱȱŗȱȱȱǰȱǯǯǰȱqƽŘȱȱȱ
·FD ǻkǼȱƽȱŖȱȱȱƾȱŖȱƹȱŗȱȱ·FSȱǻkǼȱƾȱŖȱȱkȱƽȱŖǰȱƹȱŘǯȱȱȱȱ ¢ǰȱȱɏƸFSȱǻŘǼƽŗǯŖŜȱ
ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ǻŘǼȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ǯȱ ¡ǰȱqȱ ƽȱ řȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ
ȱ ȱ·FDȱ ǻkǼȱ ƽȱ Ŗȱ ȱkȱ ƾȱ Ŗǰȱ ƹȱ ŗǰȱ ȱ·FSȱ ǻkǼȱ ƾȱ Ŗȱ ȱkȱ ƽȱ Ŗǰȱ ƹȱ řȱ ȱ ȱ ɏƸFSȱǻřǼȱƽȱŖǯŚŗśǯȱȱȱȱȱęȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱǻřǼǯȱȱǰȱȱȱȱǻřǼȱȱȱ ǯ
ǻŚŜǼ
ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ǰȱ ȱ ǻŗǼȱ ȱ ȱ ǻŘǼȱ ȱ ȱ
ȱȱȱȱ¢ȱȱȱȱǻǼȱȱȱȱ ǻřǼȱȱ¡ȱȱ ǯ
ǻŚŝǼ
ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ ȱ
ȱ ȱ ǯȱ ȱ ȱΌ1ȱ ȱΌ2ȱ ǰȱ ȱ ȱ ǻřǼȱ
ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱȱ
·FSȱǻŖǼƽǻŗȱƸȱΌ32ǼΗe2ȱȱ·FSȱǻřǼȱƽȱΌ3ȱΗe2ǯȱ¢ȱȱ ȱȱȱȱ
·FSȱǻřǼǰȱȱ ȱȱȱǯ
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