Early Warning System in Japan and Lessons learnt from recent TC Disasters

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JMA/WMO Workshop on Effective Tropical Cyclone Warning in Southeast Asia Tokyo, JAPAN, 11-14 March 2014

Early Warning System in Japan and

Lessons learnt from recent TC Disasters

14 March 2014 Yosuke IGARASHI

Japan Meteorological Agency

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JMA's Operational Service

Analysis and Forecast

Upper Air Observation Radar

Observation

Ocean

Observation Space Based Observation

Surface Observation

Observations

Data Collection

Products

Warnings, Advisories

Typhoon Forecast

Weather Forecast One Week Forecast Seasonal Forecast Aeronautical Met.

Information Marine Met.

Information

Information Issuance

Local Met. Observatories Numerical Weather

Prediction

Collection and Dissemination of Met. Data

Computer System for Met. Service

Other NMHSs

International Data

Exchange Data/Products

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The Public

Japan Meteorological Agency

(Local Meteorological Observatories)

Issuance of disaster prevention information, such as:

-Weather Warning / Advisory -Typhoon Info.

-Earthquake Early Warning / Info.

-Tsunami Warning / Advisory / Info.

-Volcanic Warning / Info.

-Aviation / Marine Weather Info.

-Volcanic Ash Advisory

Prefectural Governments National Police Agency

NTT (Nippon Telegraph and NTT (Nippon Telegraph and Telephone Corporation) MLIT (Water and Disaster MLIT (Water and Disaster Management Bureau)

Fire and Disaster Fire and Disaster Management Agency

NHK

(Japan Broadcasting Corporation)NHK

Media Organizations Public Weather Services

Japan Coast Guard MLIT (Civil Aviation Bureau)

Municipality Governments

Service Users

Airplanes Marine Vessels Public Agencies etc.

Disaster Prevention Activities

Japan Meteorological Business Support Center

JMA disseminates warnings and information via various channels in order to reach people surely and quickly.

Cellular carrier JMA Website, etc.

Dissemination of Warnings

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Recent Heavy Rain, Flood and Storms in Japan

2004: 10 typhoons struck Japan!

(Number of dead or missing)

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 (Year)

(Number of houses)

Dead or missing

Houses destroyed completely or partially

Damages caused by heavy rain, flood and storms

Source: "Shobo Hakusho 2013" (white paper on fire and disaster management)

2011: Heavy rain caused by typhoon Talas

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10 Typhoons struck Japan from June to October 2004

T0404

(landed on Japan around 16:00JST, Jun 11)

T0406

(landed on Japan around 09:30JST, Jun 21)

T0410

(landed on Japan around

16:00JST, Jul 31) T0411

(landed on Japan around 22:30JST, Aug 4)

T0415

T0416

T0418

(landed on Japan around 09:30JST, Sep 7)

T0421

(landed on Japan around 08:30JST, Sep 29)

T0422

(landed on Japan around 16:00JST, Oct 9)

T0423

(landed on Japan around 13:00JST, Oct 20)

500km

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“Guidelines for Producing a Decision and Dissemination Manual for Evacuation Advisories and Orders” (Cabinet Office, 2005)

Criteria is pre-determined: 84.4%

Not determined: 15.6% Specific criteria is pre-determined: 7.1%

Not determined: 92.9%

During the disasters in 2004, mayors did not issue the evacuation advisory / order for appropriate hazardous areas in a timely manner.

Source: Cabinet Office, 2004

Municipalities should determine specific criteria.

Background:

Mayors can not make decision because they have not pre-determined

specific criteria for evacuation advisory / order.

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In order that JMA's warnings help mayors' decision...

1. Warnings should be issued to city / town / village respectively.

2. Warning criteria should be consistent with the criteria for evacuation advisory and order.

Improvement of Warning

Evacuation Order

Warning

JMA

Municipalities

Residents

Warning

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Warning for Cities, Towns and Villages

多摩西部

多摩南部

多摩北部

23区西部

23区

東部

奥多摩町

檜原村

青梅市

あきる野市

八王子市

町田市

多摩市稲城市

日野市府中市

国立市

立川市昭島市

福生市

羽村市瑞穂町

武蔵村山市

東大和市

東村山市

小平市国分寺市小金井市

清瀬市

西東京市武蔵野市

三鷹市

調布市狛江市

世田谷区

大田区

目黒区

品川区

杉並区

練馬区

中野区

板橋区

^北^区

豊島区

新宿区

渋谷区

港区

中央区文京区台東区

荒川区

足立区

葛飾区

江戸川区

江東区

墨田区

千代田区

Tokyo

Warnings used to be issued by zones that include several cities, towns and villages together in the same group (375 zones in

Japan).

JMA divided warning zones into city, town and village basis in 2008 (more than 1,700 zones in Japan).

20km

warning advisory

no warning / advisory

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Improvement of the Criteria for Flood Forecast

Mayor's

Decision Criteria

Evacuation Order

 Water level of the river has reached "Flood Danger Level."

 Embankment is broken.

Evacuation Advisory

 Water level of the river is expected to reach "Flood Danger Level" in certain hours*.

*: Necessary time for people to evacuate

Evacuation Preparation Information

 Water level of the river is expected to reach "Flood Danger Level" in certain hours*.

*: Necessary time for people who require assistance to evacuate

Criteria recommended in the Guideline

Flood Danger Level

Flood Alert Level Flood Watch Level Standby Level

Flood Forecast with Level

Flood Forecast Title Water Level Lv5: Flood Occurrence Info. (Flood occur)

Lv4: Flood Danger Info. Flood Danger Level Lv3: Flood Alerting Info. Flood Alert Level Lv2: Flood Advisory Info. Flood Watch Level

- Standby Level

Water Level Setting

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Improvement of the Criteria for Storm Surge Warning

Mayor's

Evacuation Order

 Sea level has reached "Storm Surge Danger Level."

 Tidal embankment is broken.

Evacuation Advisory

 Sea level is expected to reach

"Storm Surge Danger Level" in certain hours*.

*: Necessary time for people to evacuate, however, storm will be also expected as the tyhoon approaching, mayors should consider the advisory when it meets the criteria for preparation information.

 Sea level is expected to reach

"Storm Surge Danger Level" in certain hours*.

JMA set the criteria for storm surge warning consistent with

"Storm Surge Danger Level."

1. If the municipality already set the

"Storm Surge Danger Level", JMA set the level as the warning criterion for the city, town or village.

2. If the municipality is NOT set the

"Storm Surge Danger Level", JMA set the warning criterion based on the survey (e.g. design high tide level for embankment, lowest altitude of the wharf).

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Improvement of the Criteria for Sediment Disaster Alert

Mayor's

Evacuation Order

 The rainfall situation has reached "Critical Line."

 A sediment disaster has occurred in neighbours.

Evacuation Advisory

 The rainfall situation is expected to reach

"Critical Line" in certain hours*.

*: Necessary time for people to evacuate

 The rainfall situation is expected to reach

"Critical Line" in certain hours*.

JMA set the "Critical Line" as the criteria for Sediment Disaster Alert.

60

分間積算雨量（

mm/hr

）

土壌雨量指数（

mm

）

0 50 100 150 200 250 300 0

10 20 30 40 50 60 70

1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0

Unreal Area

降雨発現

・非発生降雨確率値

60

分間積算雨量（

mm/hr

）

土壌雨量指数（

mm

）

0 50 100 150 200 250 300 0

10 20 30 40 50 60 70

1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0

Unreal Area

降雨発現

・非発生降雨確率値

60 min.

rainfall amount (mm)

probability of rainfall occurrence

Soil Water Index (mm) rainfall with NO

sediment disaster rainfall with sediment disaster

Critical Line of Sediment Disaster Occurrence

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Situation on Pre-setting Specific Criteria in 2012

Specific criteria has been pre-determined Specific criteria are under reviewing

Specific criteria are under development Not yet started

Flood Storm Surge

Source: Fire and Disaster Management Agency, 2013

Sediment Disaster

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Achievement of the Link between Warnings and Mayors Decision

Disaster Mayors

Decision

Sediment

Disaster River Flooding Storm Surge Flooding

Evacuation Advisory

Sediment Disaster

Alert

Flood Alerting Information

Storm Surge Warning Evacuation

Preparation Information

Heavy Rain Warning

Flood Warning

Flood Advisory Information

Setting Up Disaster Countermeasures

Heavy Rain Advisory

Flood Advisory

Storm Surge

Advisory

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Typhoon Talas Brought a Long-term Heavy Rainfall in 2011

Cumulative rainfall amount from 2 to 4 September, 2011.

(mm)

50km

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Heavy Rain by Talas caused Catastrophic Damage

Damages:

98 dead or missing

3,538 houses comp / part destroyed 22,094 houses flooded

Source: Fire and Disaster Management Agency, 2012

Source: Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism, 2011 (figure) Talas visible image and

its track (red line) at 12JST of Sep. 2.

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9月の月降水量の

平年値

282.7mm

0：00 12：00 0：00 12：00 0：00 12：00 0：00 12：00 0：00 12：00

Heavy Rain Advisory

Heavy Rain Warning

Rainfall continued after JMA had issued warning, and the situation became worse and worse. However, there was no effective way to inform the public of the

catastrophic situation we never experienced!

Sediment Disaster

Warnings during the Heavy Rain by Talas

1 hour rainfall amount Cumulative rainfall amount

Sediment Disaster

Alert

1 hou r ra in fa ll a m oun t (mm ) C u m u la ti v e r a in fa ll a m oun t (mm )

Aug. 31 Sep. 1 Sep. 2 Sep. 3 Sep. 4

282.7mm: mean one-month rainfall amount in September

Kazeya

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Establishment of "Emergency Warning"

Intensity level (Precipitation etc.)

Advisory level

Advisory Advisory

Time Warning

Warning

Emergency Warning Emergency Warning

Once in 50 years level

Disaster Serious Disaster Serious disasters may happen

Serious Disasters (Higher possibility)

Warning level

Serious disasters will most probably happen

Disasters may happen

Emergency Warning is issued when JMA expects the

precipitation amount of statistically estimated once in 50 years.

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9月の月降水量の

平年値

282.7mm

0：00 12：00 0：00 12：00 0：00 12：00 0：00 12：00 0：00 12：00

Heavy Rain Advisory

Heavy Rain Warning

Sediment Disaster

Expected Timing of Issuance of Emgency Warning

1 hour rainfall amount Cumulative rainfall amount

Sediment Disaster

Alert

1 hou r ra in fa ll a m oun t (mm ) C u m u la ti v e r a in fa ll a m oun t (mm )

Aug. 31 Sep. 1 Sep. 2 Sep. 3 Sep. 4

282.7mm: mean one-month rainfall amount in September

Heavy Rain Emg Warning

Kazeya

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0 100 200 300

0 10 20 30 40 50

0

時

3

時

6

時

9

時

12

時

15

時

18

時

21

時

24

時

3

時

6

時

9

時

12

時

1

時間降水量（ミリ）

積算降水量（ミリ）

1 hour rainfall amount (mm) Cumulative rainfall amount (mm)

Otsu, Shiga prefecture

Advisory 13:54, 15 Sep

Emgency Warning during the Typhoon Man-yi in 2013

Emgency Warning Warning

Advisory

No Warning / Advisory

Warning 18:48, 15 Sep 1 hour rainfall (mm) Cumulative rainfall (mm)

100km

Emg. Warning 05：05, 16 Sep

Press briefing

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Categories of Weather Warnings

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Summary of History on our Improvement 2 grades information --- advisory, warning

2004: 10 typhoons hit Japan

After 2004: Restructuring of warning

Lesson: Warnings need to connect to action

 warning zones be set as city, town and village areas

 warning criteria be consistent with the criteria of evacuation order

2011: Unprecedented rainfall by typhoon Talas

Lesson: Effective message in emergency situation.

2013: Emergency warning launched

Our efforts will continue forever so that the warnings save people

from natural disasters more effectively!

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Public Awareness & Cooperation with other Organizations

Public Awareness

 Leaflets

 Movies

 Workshop / events

Cooperation

 Consensus on warning criteria

Warning criteria are fixed under the consensus through the discussion with municipalities

concerned.

 Education

 Personnel exchange

JMA exchanges personnel with other national and municipal governments related to disaster management.

 Joint information

JMA issues flood forecasts jointly with the river administrators, namely, Ministry of Land,

Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism or prefectural governments. Sediment disaster alerts are also issued jointly by JMA and prefectural governments.

Cooperation with the Japanese Red Cross

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Thank you