This thesis uses quantitative and qualitative methods to examine the relationship between water availability and civil conflict through ethnic conflict. Through case studies, this thesis finds that hydrological factors, lack of capacity to adapt to environmental change, information problems and social processes triggered by water issues are indications that water can contribute to the potential for conflict in real cases.
Introduction
Access to, or lack of, usable water resources is also a form of stress, as is the relative deprivation of water resources among members of the same society. How different hydrologies and geographic distributions of water contribute to political or physical conflict scenarios.
Literature Review
From the socio-economic and political effects of scarcity that can alter the risk of conflict, and from Homer Dixon's (1999) framework law to reduce resourcefulness and adaptability, the projected population movement due to climate change is a major concern for some (Warner et al. 2010). ). The discussion of the role of water scarcity in civil conflict reveals some existing overlaps in the literature on general environmental scarcity and civil conflict.
Theory
Unlike in water-rich societies, the scarcity of water increases its values for the beneficiaries and represents a relative deprivation for those without access. However, when the state cannot or will not provide sufficient resources that the non-state actors demand, or when it is in a group's interest to initiate a conflict under the banner of water-related grievances, groups may challenge the state or other non-state actors. state actors to control the resource. The state's interests may primarily be concerned with maintaining power and preventing internal or external threats to its authority.
For this reason, they have greater leeway in their policies, especially of the discriminatory variety. Therefore, it is in the interest of the state to refrain from or at least conceal the commission of acts that would attract negative attention or reprimand from the international community. When such divisions fall along ethnic lines, the political balance between in-groups and out-groups can be decisive for the government's water allocation preferences.
In contrast to measuring dominance in a central government, polarization examines a more diffuse measure of society as a whole and the potential for competition between different ethnic groups in society. Opposition to discriminatory water provision by the state, a form of structural scarcity, is a large part of this theory and a claim that can be taken up by any of the non-state actors discussed above.
Methodology
Finally, the EPR variable number of years of peace since a previous conflict controlled for the effects of the last conflict on the outcome of the dependent variables. Although these and similar models not included in the graph tested various independent and interacting variables of water availability and ethnopolitical division, none of the models yielded significant results. Despite being insignificant and therefore unreliable, it is interesting that some of the water masses returned coefficients contrary to theory.
This is accomplished by the following analysis of the cases we now consider. "Israel/Palestine/Jordan - EcoPeace/Friends of the Earth Middle East and Good Water Neighbors Project.". About 1,370 million cubic meters (mcm) of water are shared between Israel and the Palestinian Territories out of a total of 1,800 mcm/year of renewable water available in the territories as a whole.
According to FAO Aquastat data for Sudan in 2015, only 55 percent of the population had access to improved water. In this case, river control is an essential and important part of political and military strategy. For example, the impoundment of the Ramadi Dam caused a 50% drop in the flow of the Euphrates (Paraszczuk 2015).
Therefore, the economic impact of water scarcity results in a demographic effect similar to increasing the conflict-generating potential of poverty-stricken areas. In conclusion, it is in the strong national interest of the United States to build frameworks to understand, identify, and prepare for the destabilizing effect of changing water resources. As a world leader in security and aid, it is certainly within the competence of the United States to engage in such a task.
Results and Interpretation
Case Studies
Therefore, this qualitative section focuses mainly on the intelligence and policy value of the trends extracted from these cases and the larger cases. The issues here are numerous and complicated, with both sides manipulating the public perception of society. This division further contributes to the lack of water resources development, because while the Palestinians are only allowed to drill in the eastern mountain aquifer, almost half of the aquifer lies under Area C, a non-contiguous zone completely under Israeli military control (“Issues Under the Oslo Accords”).
This decline contributes to the Palestinian Authority's inability to complete the modernization of fifty pre-1967 wells and to develop JWC-approved wells less than 150 meters deep as stipulated in the Oslo Agreement (Hareuveni 2012 ). Although the JWC has approved 23 well locations since 1995, only a third of the projects have been completed and very few measures have been implemented to increase the efficiency of water distribution in the Palestinian Territories (Isaac 1995 and Hass 2014). While the scarcity of surface water became more apparent early in the conflict, competition for groundwater further complicated matters and likely contributed to the protracted nature of the conflict.
Although ISIS's cutoff of water to downstream areas is the most pressing concern, control of the dams also provides an opportunity to threaten Iraq in other ways. This can be achieved by either closing or opening the floodgates to target specific areas.
Analysis of Trends and Implications
The most obvious of these processes is displacement and migration, which have played an important role in the conflict in Darfur. Persistent drought that occurred in the pre-conflict years, combined with desertification caused by overgrazing and exacerbated by drought, forced Arab pastoralist communities to seek suitable resources outside their historic territory and came into increasing competition to sedentary non-Arab farmers. Finally, in the case of ISIS in Iraq, water can create lucrative economic opportunities for those who control it by extorting civilians for access to this critical resource.
In the greed versus grievance argument for why civil conflict occurs, this case falls into the greed or opportunity category. Although this is relatively unique to ISIS among these three cases, it appears to be a common phenomenon in the West Bank and Jordan of selling water from trucks at much higher prices than municipal water would be if it were available through an infrastructure system (Corrodin 2016) ) . ISIS's goal of creating a territorial state is evident in the way it manipulates civilians with water.
Since that time, NGOs and governments from around the world have supported efforts to expand access to this aquifer in the region with the goal. UNICEF's involvement in groundwater level monitoring and education on water management, including rainwater harvesting and improving irrigation, in Darfur is helping to demonstrate the beginnings of this potential by trying to mitigate the worst conditions in summer, when violence also tends to increase (“Darfur” UNICEF-2008).
Considerations for United States Foreign Policy and Security
It is in the United States' best interest to invest in collecting accurate water data so that NGOs and policymakers can make clear, confident decisions on water-related issues. The use of the water issue by both Israel and Palestine to gain international sympathy is itself a foreign policy move, and if the United States wants to make fair, smart decisions on the issue, it must have accurate, unbiased context. Because of the potential that water can contribute to conflict and that water resource development can mitigate it, the United States would benefit significantly from the small investments required to obtain such information.
Therefore, the United States would benefit national and regional stability by identifying vulnerable countries and promoting their diversification. Finally, one of the most critical parts of this issue is the recognition of the consequences of changing climatic conditions and their ability to influence socio-political and economic realities. In the face of a changing climate and a growing global population, it is highly likely that areas around the world will be increasingly threatened by water scarcity issues.
Therefore, to promote stability, the United States can identify similar threatened communities and focus on providing assistance to diversify resources, educate. By identifying the mechanism and relationships that link water and conflict, the United States can help global and national security by investing attention in acquiring essential information, efforts to build capacity to effectively manage shocks, and mitigate the impact of water scarcity before they worsens.
Conclusions
This result contrasts with the relationships hypothesized that increasing water extraction would mean better access and thus reduce the likelihood of conflict. The lack of information on water measures for the world in codified, accessible formats has been a barrier to the reliability of this analysis and points to one of the reasons for the lack of consensus on the role of water in conflict in the political science discipline. However, they also reveal the potential for appropriate water management to reduce competition between groups and aid in the institution of peace.
Therefore, the case studies move from the global to the local level to identify generalizable trends in the water-conflict relationship that are not captured in the models. 34;In their latest outrage, Islamic State fighters use water as a weapon in Iraq.' The Washington Post. Global food prices, regime type and protest in developing countries.' Journal for Peace Research.
34؛ فلسطين اليوم، 22 آذار/مارس 34؛ ندرة المياه: تعاون أم صراع في الشرق الأوسط وشمال أفريقيا؟ مجلة السياسة الخارجية.
