RaboResearch
Food & Agribusiness
Global Shrimp Aquaculture
Production Survey and Forecast
Presented by the Global Seafood Alliance and
Rabobank
Source: Rabobank 2022
Many thanks to:
• All survey respondents
• Darryl Jory from GSA
Acknowledgements
Summary: Optimistic outlook for 2023, despite a challenging year for Asia in 2022
Source: Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), GOAL Survey 2022, Rabobank 2022
Region CAGR 2010-2020 2021 2022e 2023f
India 19.2% 11.2% -4.7% 3.5%
Ecuador 13.6% 40.9% 18.4% 14.4%
Vietnam 10.9% 1.5% 0.7% 0.6%
China -1.0% 6.8% -0.8% 9.5%
Indonesia 10.2% 5.2% 3.5% 6.2%
Thailand -3.7% 6.2% 2.3% 4.0%
Total 5.6% 11.5% 4.2% 7.0%
Americas
1
Source: FAO, GOAL Survey 2022, Rabobank 2022
Ecuador aquaculture: vannamei (whiteleg) shrimp production, 2010-2023f
0 400 800 1,200 1,600 2,000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021e 2022e 2023f
th o usa n d metr ic t o n s
GOAL Survey FAO data
FAO data CAGR 13.0%
Most recent forecast: 1.35m metric tons for 2022 (+26% YOY)
Ecuador’s shrimp industry is the fastest-growing major aquaculture industry in the world
40.9% 18.4% 14.4%
GOAL Survey
Source: FAO, GOAL Survey 2022, Rabobank 2022
Mexico aquaculture: vannamei (whiteleg) shrimp production, 2010-2023f
0 50 100 150 200 250 300
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021e 2022e 2023f
th o usa n d metr ic t o n s
FAO data GOAL Survey
Mexico’s shrimp industry is growing steadily at 5% to 6% per year
FAO CAGR 6.1%
2.4% 5.0% 6.1%
GOAL Survey
Source: FAO, GOAL Survey 2022, Rabobank 2022
Brazil aquaculture: vannamei (whiteleg) shrimp production, 2010-2023f
0 20 40 60 80 100 120
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021e 2022e 2023f
th o usa n d metr ic t o n s
FAO data GOAL Survey
Brazil’s shrimp producers had a great 2021 and are now growing at 12% to 14% per year
22.1% 13.6% 11.8%
GOAL Survey
FAO
CAGR -0.9%
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70
Honduras Peru Venezuela
th o usa n d metr ic t o n s
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021e 2022e 2023f
Source: FAO, GOAL Survey 2022, Rabobank 2022
Honduras, Peru, and Venezuela aquaculture: vannamei (whiteleg) shrimp production, 2010-2023f
FAO CAGR 11.4%
FAO CAGR 10.0%
GOAL Survey
9% 4%
4% 8%
8%
7%
FAO CAGR 7.4%
42%
24%
32%
Venezuela is the most interesting ‘newcomer’ to the top five
producers in the Americas
*Note: Other Americas includes Colombia, Costa Rica, Cuba, and Panama Source: FAO, GOAL Survey 2022, Rabobank 2022
Rest of the Americas aquaculture: vannamei (whiteleg) shrimp production, 2010-2023f
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40
Nicaragua Guatemala Other Americas*
th o usa n d metr ic t o n s
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021e 2022e 2023f
6%
7%
8%
8%
-6%
8%
0% 8% 6%
Smaller suppliers in the Americas are also expanding shrimp production
FAO CAGR 5.9%
FAO CAGR -0.6%
GOAL Survey FAO
CAGR 4.6%
*Note: Other Americas includes Colombia, Costa Rica, Cuba, and Panama Source: FAO, GOAL Survey 2022, Rabobank 2022
Americas aquaculture: vannamei (whiteleg) shrimp production, 2010-2023f
0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021e 2022e 2023f
th o usa n d metr ic t o n s
Ecuador Mexico Brazil Honduras Peru Venezuela Nicaragua Guatemala Other Americas*
Driven by Ecuador, shrimp production in the Americas is set to reach 2m metric tons in 2023
29.8% 15.3% 13.1%
GOAL Survey
FAO
CAGR 8.9%
Asia
2
Indian shrimp production contracted again in 2022 due to disease, weather, feed costs, and falling prices
*Note: Others include Giant river prawn, Indian white prawn, Penaeus shrimps nei, and river prawns nei
** Note: 2010 uses FAO Data; 2011 to 2019 uses Manoj Sharma, Industry Expert; 2020 to 2023 uses GOAL Data; We did not use FAO data for 2020 for India as it conflicted with all other sources Source: FAO, GOAL Survey 2022, Rabobank 2022
India aquaculture: shrimp production, 2010-2023f**
0 200 400 600 800 1,000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021e 2022e 2023f
th o usa n d metr ic t o n s
Vannamei (whiteleg) Monodon (giant black tiger) Others*
11.2% -4.7% 3.5%
GOAL Survey FAO + Industry
CAGR 19.2%
Source: FAO, GOAL Survey 2022, Rabobank 2022
China aquaculture: shrimp production, 2010-2023f
0 200 400 600 800 1,000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021e 2022e 2023f
th o usa n d metr ic t o n s
Estimated data GOAL Survey
Note: We do not use FAO data for China as is it considered to be a large overestimation
Chinese shrimp supply is having a difficult 2022, but good growth is expected for 2023
6.8% -0.8% 9.5%
GOAL Survey FAO
CAGR -1.0%
0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021e 2022e 2023f
th o usa n d metr ic t o n s
Vannamei (whiteleg) Monodon (giant black tiger) Others*
*Note: Others include banana prawns and Metapenaeus shrimps nei Source: FAO, GOAL Survey 2022, Rabobank 2022
Vietnam aquaculture: shrimp production, 2010-2023f
Vietnamese shrimp production seems to have slowed down considerably since 2020
1.5% 0.7% 0.6%
GOAL Survey GOAL
CAGR 10.9%
Note: We do use FAO data for Vietnam, although it is
considered to be marginally overestimated
Source: Robins McIntosh/CP Foods, Rabobank 2020
Indonesia aquaculture: shrimp production, 2010-2023f
0 100 200 300 400 500
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021e 2022e 2023f
th o usa n d metr ic t o n s
Estimated all shrimp Vannamei (whiteleg) Monodon (giant black tiger) Others
Indonesian shrimp production to surpass its 2016 peak in 2022 and expects good growth in 2023
5.2% 3.5% 6.2%
GOAL Survey CAGR 10.2%
Note: We do not use FAO data for Indonesia as is it
considered to be a large overestimation
*Note: Others include banana prawns, Metapenaeus shrimps nei, and Penaeus shrimps nei Source: FAO, GOAL Survey 2022, Rabobank 2022
Thailand aquaculture: shrimp production, 2010-2023f
0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021e 2022e 2023f
th o usa n d metr ic t o n s
Vannamei (whiteleg) Monodon (giant black tiger) Others*
Thai shrimp production is slowly expanding, but remains far below pre-EMS levels
FAO CAGR -3.7%
6.2% 2.3% 4.0%
GOAL Survey
*Note: Other Asia include Bangladesh, Myanmar, Brunei, Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan.
Source: FAO, GOAL Survey 2022, Rabobank 2022
Philippines, Malaysia, and other Asia aquaculture: shrimp production, 2010-2023f
0 50 100 150 200 250 300
Philippines Malaysia Other Asia*
th o usa n d metr ic t o n s
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021e 2022e 2023f
FAO CAGR 1.4%
FAO CAGR -5.7%
FAO CAGR 4.0%
GOAL Survey
13% -2%
-6%
4% 2% 7%
-1%
4%
13%
The Philippines, Malaysia, and other Asian shrimp producers
have mixed growth expectations
Source: FAO, GOAL Survey 2022, Rabobank 2022
Saudi Arabia and Iran aquaculture: shrimp production, 2010-2023f
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70
Saudi Arabia Iran
th o usa n d metr ic t o n s
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021e 2022e 2023f
FAO CAGR 8.5%
FAO CAGR 22.5%
-2%
27%
-11% 10% 11%
-14%
Saudi Arabia and Iran, once rapidly growing Middle Eastern
shrimp producers, both expected to decline in 2023
*Note: Others include Bangladesh, Myanmar, Brunei, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Philippines, Malaysia, Saudi Arabia, and Iran.
Source: FAO, Robins McIntosh/CP Foods, GOAL Survey 2022, Rabobank 2022
Southeast Asia and Middle East aquaculture: shrimp production, 2010-2023f
0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 4,500
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021e 2022e 2023f
th o usa n d metr ic t o n s
China India Vietnam Indonesia Thailand Other Asia*
FAO CAGR 4.7%
Asia: Shrimp supply to decline slightly in 2022 (for the first time since 2013) but growth will resume in 2023 to reach nearly 4m metric tons
5.5% -0.1% 4.2%
GOAL Survey
*Note: Other Americas includes Mexico, Honduras, Peru, Venezuela, Brazil, Guatemala, Nicaragua, Colombia, Costa Rica, Cuba, and Panama
**Note: Other Asia includes Bangladesh, Myanmar, Brunei, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Philippines, Malaysia, Saudi Arabia and Iran Source: FAO, Robins McIntosh/CP Foods, GOAL Survey 2022, Rabobank 2022
Global aquaculture: shrimp production, 2010-2023f
0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021e 2022e 2023f
th o usa n d metr ic t o n s
Ecuador Vietnam India China Other Americas* Indonesia Thailand Other Asia**
FAO CAGR 5.6%
Global shrimp supply could reach 6m metric tons in 2023 as Latin America (mostly Ecuador) drives production
11.5% 4.2% 7.0%
GOAL Survey
Survey questions
3
Source: GOAL Survey 2021, Rabobank 2022
Feed prices will be lower in 2022 compared to 2021
Global economic conditions will be better in 2022 compared to 2021
The global market will strengthen in 2022 compared to 2021
Strongly Disagree
Neither agree nor
disagree
Strongly Agree Agree
Disagree
Last year’s results
GOAL 2021 shrimp production survey responses
Source: GOAL Survey 2022, Rabobank 2022
Feed prices will be lower in 2023 compared to 2022
Global economic conditions will be better in 2023 compared to 2022
The global market will strengthen in 2023 compared to 2022
GOAL 2022 shrimp production survey responses: a less positive view of the coming year
Strongly Disagree
Neither agree nor
disagree
Strongly Agree Agree
Disagree
Source: GOAL Survey 2022, Rabobank 2022
Conflicts with other resource users Onerous restrictions (use of chemicals, discharge…
Local/regional infrastructure Broodstock (cost) Aquafeed (availability) Consumer acceptance Broodstock (availability) International trade barriers Other production costs (electricity, labor, etc.) Access to credit Broodstock (quality) Aquafeed (quality) Market access Disease prevention Market prices Aquafeed (cost)
Not important
Moderately important
Extremely important Very
important Minorly
important In the 2020 survey
aquafeed prices were the key concern for 2021
In the 2021 survey market prices were the
key concern for 2022
From No. 10 to 5
From No. 12 to 7
For 2023, aquafeed costs have again become the key concern
Appendix: Monodon shrimp supply
4
Source: FAO, GOAL Survey 2022, Rabobank 2022
Shrimp aquaculture: Monodon (giant black tiger) production, 2020-2023f
0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800
2020 2021e 2022e 2023f
th o usa n d metr ic t o n s
Malaysia Thailand Philippines India Indonesia Bangladesh China Vietnam
11.4%
8.2%
11.7%
GOAL Survey
Monodon shrimp is making a comeback due to growth in China
and to a lesser extent India
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RaboResearch
Food & Agribusiness
Rabobank
Gorjan Nikolik Senior Analyst –Seafood
Telephone +31 30 712 3825 Mobile +31 6 1243 2463 E-mail [email protected]
