This report is an FAO effort based on contributions from all FAO technical departments. In addition, contributions were received from Yon Fernandez of Partnerships, Advocacy and Capacity Development (OPC) and all five FAO Strategic Program (SP) leadership teams, notably Karel Callens (SP1), Clayton Campanhola (SP2), Benjamin Davis and Stina Heikkilä ( SP3), Jamie Morrison and David Neven (SP4) and Dominique Burgeon (SP5).
The future of food and agriculture
TRENDS
Despite this, around 700 million people, mostly living in rural areas, are still extremely poor today. This encourages increased migration flows, especially of male members of rural households, which in turn leads to the 'feminization' of farming in many parts of the world.
CHALLENGES
However, the situation in today's world is far from the world "without fear and want" envisioned at the founding of the United Nations. Despite significant economic growth since 2000, the average income of people living in Africa is about 5 percent of the average income of citizens living in the United States.
Agriculture and food systems have already changed significantly, but will need to adjust further in this evolving global environment
Changing demographics will further increase the weight of low- and middle-income countries in the global economy. Even small changes in climate, such as slight changes in annual rainfall or seasonal rainfall patterns, can seriously affect productivity.
Can we sustainably feed a world population of 11 billion?
Deforestation, the degradation of natural buffers that protect coastlines and the poor state of infrastructure have increased the likelihood that extreme weather events will escalate into full-fledged disasters for affected communities and the economy. The extension of food chains and changes in dietary patterns have further increased the resource, energy and emissions intensity of the global food system.
The international community has recognized the challenges and the need for transformative change
The following section assesses 15 trends that will shape the future of food and the livelihoods of those who depend on food and agricultural systems. Urbanization and aging will have important repercussions on the agricultural workforce and the socio-economic structure of rural communities.
Global population growth is slowing, but Africa and Asia will still see a large population expansion
While global population growth is generally slowing, in some regions the population will continue to expand well beyond 2050 and even into the next century. World population growth is slowing, but Africa and Asia will continue to see a large population expansion.
Rapid urbanization is accelerating the dietary transition
In 1980, more than two-thirds of the region's population was classified as urban, a share that rose to almost 85 percent in 2015. Higher urban income increases demand for processed foods, as well as animal foods, fruits, and vegetables. , as part of a broad nutritional transition.
Ageing will also accelerate among rural populations
In contrast, many low-income countries are experiencing much faster increases in the number and percentage of elderly people, often without having reaped the same demographic benefits as slowly aging high-income economies. Many low-income countries may not reach the income levels of high-income countries in the near future.
Scenarios portray very different outlooks for GDP growth
The SSP5 scenario assumes much faster economic growth – per capita income will more than triple between 2000 and 2050 and quintuple by 2080. In contrast, SSP3 shows greater inequality and divergence, ending in much slower growth in per capita income worldwide.
FAO projections for agriculture assumed moderate rates of long-term economic growth
The projections used in AT2050 further assume some degree of economic convergence, as low- and middle-income countries would continue to enjoy faster per capita income growth than high-income countries (Alexandratos and Bruinsma, 2012). GDP per capita in the former group is expected to more than triple, from $2,400 to $7,500, an average annual growth rate of 2.7 percent.
Investments are on the rise, especially in China
Changing assumptions regarding GDP per capita will affect the projections of quantities, values and composition of agricultural demand, especially for low- and middle-income countries, where the responses of consumers to changes in income are expected to be stronger, in terms of their demand. for food, than in high-income countries. Less conservative hypotheses than those assumed in AT2050, such as those of most SSPs, would shift demand for agricultural goods upwards.
Agriculture remains much less capital intensive in low- and middle-income countries
First, only in high-income countries is the agricultural investment share greater than the agricultural value-added share. In low- and middle-income countries, by contrast, this ratio is much lower, at around 0.4.
Business-as-usual’ investment patterns would leave hundreds of million people undernourished to 2030
While social protection, identified by the Poverty Gap Transfer (PGT), is expected to provide a large part of the required additional income until 2020-2021 (light blue area in Figure 2.10, bottom), the additional income from labor (dark blue area ) may gradually exceed social protection revenues, thanks to significant investments in the early years of the period (red dotted line, Figure 2.10, bottom). These investments are expected to provide people currently living in extreme poverty with an average of around $145 billion in additional annual income needed to escape hunger and extreme poverty by 2030 (dotted red line, top).
Agricultural trade follows global economic trends
Border protection for agricultural imports from the countries negotiating these agreements varies considerably, from near zero for Australia and New Zealand to high for certain commodities imported by Japan and Canada. With the exception of the European Union and the United States of America, many of the countries involved in the TPP and RCEP have already entered into bilateral RTAs that have eliminated or are in the process of phasing out tariffs on many commodities and food imports.
Agricultural trade has expanded, but most food is supplied domestically
The rules of origin drawn up in each of the mega-regions can affect the extent to which agricultural goods from third countries are used as inputs by each trading bloc's food processing sectors. Note: The real food price index is the nominal food price index deflated by the producer unit value index as reported by the World Bank.
Food prices have retreated to lower levels after peaking in 2011
Although agriculture has become more efficient at a global level, competition for natural resources has increased in recent decades due to consumption patterns driven primarily by population growth, changing diets, industrial development, urbanization and climate change. Paradoxically, some efforts aimed at reducing greenhouse gas emissions have led to a further intensification of competition for land and water resources.
Deforestation of land leads to severe environmental degradation that can make competition for other natural resources more acute among different users. Competition for natural resources is increasing as countries seek bioenergy alternatives to fossil fuels.
Competition for natural resources is increasing as countries search for bioenergy alternatives to fossil fuels
In recent years, there has been a significant increase in biofuel production, from about 60 billion liters in 2007 to about 130 billion liters in 2015. Almost a third of this annual increase went to biofuel production in the United States of America alone. .
As a result of competing demands from agriculture, industry and cities, major river basins now face water scarcity
According to the most recent assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), published in 2014, levels of anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases (GHGs) are now at their highest in history (Porter et al., 2014). They have, under the auspices of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), the Paris Agreement on Climate Change, which recognizes.
Food and agriculture sectors contribute substantially to greenhouse gas emissions, but mitigation options exist
Mapping environmentally sustainable pathways for agricultural development therefore plays a central role in mitigating climate change. This is a clear indication of the growing recognition of the importance of agriculture to global efforts to tackle climate change.1 The Paris Agreement also reaffirmed the importance of reducing greenhouse gas emissions from deforestation and forest degradation, and encouraged countries to take action in this area. area.
Climat e change will affect every aspect of food pr oduction
The IPCC report stated with high confidence that in areas of low latitudes, a 3°C increase in temperatures will lead to the local extinction of some fish. Figure 4.3 Expected changes in crop yields due to climate change. Climate change will also contribute to existing long-term environmental problems, such as groundwater depletion and land degradation, which will impact food and agricultural production systems.
Without efforts to adapt to climate change, food insecurity will likely increase substantially
Because of its potential impacts on production, climate change may also reduce the incomes of small-scale and subsistence producers, further threatening their ability to obtain food. The adoption of sustainable practices by smallholders will be crucial to climate change adaptation efforts.
The adoption of sustainable practices by smallholders will be crucial to climate change adaptation efforts
The latest IPCC assessment also makes clear that climate change will worsen existing gender inequalities. Finally, to ensure food security, climate change adaptation measures must be applied not only to food production, but also to all other stages of the food supply chain.
Yield increases are slowing, despite overall improvements in agricultural efficiency
However, due to a range of factors including climate change, pressure on natural resources, insufficient investment in agriculture and technology gaps, maintaining the pace of production increases may be more difficult than in the past. Growth rates estimated by ordinary least squares (OLS) regression of the natural logarithm of yield on time and a constant term.
Resource-conserving practices are helping to increase agricultural productivity
Some large countries, such as Brazil, China, Indonesia, the Russian Federation and Ukraine have achieved TFP growth rates above their regional average. Overall TFP growth is lagging in sub-Saharan Africa, although countries such as Benin, Cameroon, Congo, Kenya, Mali and Sierra Leone have recorded above-average growth rates in the 2000s (Yu and Nin-Pratt, 2011). .
After a period of stagnation, agricultural R&D is surging
There is widespread recognition that the adoption and adaptation of sustainable agricultural systems and practices, such as conservation agriculture, agroforestry, integrated crop-livestock energy systems and integrated pest management, require technological innovation and investment in research and development (R&D). Last but not least, an institutional enabling environment is crucial to ensure the effective implementation of sustainable agricultural systems and support their promotion and adoption.
Citizen resistance to GMOs risks overshadowing the contribution of other biotechnologies
Estimates of the rates of return for agricultural R&D suggest that it has a very high social value. Estimated annual internal rates of return on investments on agricultural R&D range between 20 percent and 80 percent (Alston, 2010).
Mobile phones and farmer field schools also contribute to agricultural innovation
The decline of public advisory services is accompanied by the growth of diffusion of technologies and practices in the private sector. Private sector ownership of new technologies often limits their diffusion in countries least able to afford them, but the benefits could be significant.
With globalization, the risks to crops and livestock are increasing
The consequences of transboundary plant diseases and pests vary from region to region and from year to year. Preventing transboundary plant diseases and pests has proven to be the most effective control strategy.
Zoonotic diseases and antimicrobial resistance pose a growing threat to human health
Ticks and tick-borne diseases cause global losses estimated in the range of US$18 billion (de Castro, 1997). To address the issue of AMR, the World Health Organization has developed a global action plan with clear responsibility in the food and agriculture sector.
Climate change and natural resources degradation are modifying pest and disease dynamics
The effects of climate change can be felt in a number of ways, such as an increase in the frequency of outbreaks, the expansion of pests into new environments, the evolution of new pest strains and types, and increases in the vulnerability of plant defense mechanisms. One example of this phenomenon is the evolution of strains of wheat yellow rust that adapted to higher temperatures and damaged wheat crops in the Near East, Central Asia, Australia and the Americas in the 2000s (Milus, Kristensen and Hovmøller, 2009).
Conflicts are on the rise again
They can be caused or amplified by climate-related natural disasters and their impact on poverty eradication and food security. Natural disasters tend to trap vulnerable people, especially in a cycle of poverty, as they are less resilient and unable to cope.
Countries with the highest levels of hunger are usually those with conflicts
In 2013, an estimated 172 million people were undernourished in protracted crisis countries – about 20 percent of the world's undernourished people. Of the 21 countries with a protracted crisis in 2013, only Ethiopia achieved the Millennium Development Goal (MDG) target of halving the proportion of the undernourished population, largely due to sustained political commitment and interventions to improve food production and nutrition (FAO, IFAD and WFP, 2015).
Agriculture is affected by a rising trend in the number and intensity of natural disasters worldwide
Agriculture is affected by an increasing trend in the number and intensity of natural disasters worldwide. There is no single, harmonized methodology available for collecting data on the causes and impact of natural disasters specifically in the agricultural sector.
Trends indicate that natural hazards, disasters and conflict are more likely to coincide in the future
Similarly, more than 75 percent of the world's poor depend directly on natural resources for their livelihoods. Peacekeeping is expected to be clearly included in the 2016 quadrennial comprehensive policy review of the United Nations system.
Globally extreme poverty is decreasing, but in sub-Saharan Africa there are now more extremely poor people than in the 1990s
The World Bank estimates that by 2010, 78 percent of the extremely poor lived in rural areas (Olinto et al., 2013). This concentration of poverty in rural areas is common across regions, despite differences in overall poverty rates (FAO, 2015).
Agriculture is key to poverty and hunger alleviation in rural areas, but is no longer enough
Across all low- and middle-income countries, a person living in rural areas is almost three times more likely to live in extreme poverty than a person living in urban areas (World Bank, 2013). Agriculture is the key to rural poverty and hunger, but is no longer enough.
While global inequality is narrowing, within-country inequality is rising in fast-growing developing countries and high-income economies
For example, in the United States of America at the beginning of the 20th century, the richest decile enjoyed just over 40 percent of the national income. An analysis of the income earned by the richest 1 percent in the United States since 1900 shows a clear U-shaped pattern.
Are low- and middle-income countries catching up with high-income countries?
Moreover, large differences in gross per capita capital formation can feed disparities in asset ownership, which are already highly polarized. Inequalities in asset ownership can in turn feed future income inequalities, especially if poor people are not given opportunities to earn decent incomes, save and invest.
The number of undernourished people projected in the context of achieving zero hunger certainly falls short of the SDG target of eradicating hunger by 2030. That's why FAO, IFAD and WFP are calling for a two-pronged approach, combining social protection investments to immediately increase food consumption. Table 8.1 Number of malnourished.
Gender inequality in agriculture stifles productivity growth and threatens food security
Social protection directly contributes to reducing poverty, hunger and malnutrition by promoting income security and improving access to better nutrition, health care and education. In sub-Saharan Africa, the agricultural productivity level of female farmers is between 20 and 30 percent lower than that of male farmers due to the gender gap in access to resources (FAO, 2011).
Triple burden’ of malnutrition remains a global health emergency
Anemia contributes to 20 percent of all maternal deaths (WHO, 2016c), with approximately 50,000 women dying in childbirth each year due to iron deficiency. Globally, 44 percent of adult diabetes, 23 percent of coronary heart disease, and 7 to 41 percent of some cancers are attributable to overweight and obesity (WHO, 2009).
Changes in dietary patterns are affecting public health
FAO predicts that these trends will continue after 2050, but with slower growth in fruit and vegetable consumption in low- and middle-income countries compared to that in high-income countries. The daily per capita protein intake from animal products in low- and middle-income countries is expected to reach 22 g by 2030 and 25 g by 2050 (Figure 9.2b).
Healthy diets contribute to a healthy environment
However, to reconcile the results based on the two data sources, dramatic corrections of the overall consumption patterns resulting from the FBS are not required. If the benefits of the dietary transition observed in low- and middle-income countries are to continue into the future and lead to the achievement of the nutrition targets of the 2030 Agenda, several conditions may need to be met.
Unsafe food remains a major cause of disease and death
The structural change of economies can be measured by the dynamics of key characteristics, such as the relative importance of sectors, the reallocation of factors across sectors and geographical areas, and changes in their productivity, which are associated with changes in consumer preferences, international trade flows and the social and institutional setting. Where structural changes in production brought improvements in income, a change in consumption patterns also occurred.
The speed and patterns of structural change and agricultural transformation differ across regions
Structural transformation, the transition of the agricultural sector and the consequences of these changes in terms of overall prosperity, are specific to each country and region. The other is the 'middle segment' of the food system – the stages of the system that come after primary production and before consumption, such as trade, processing, packaging, distribution and storage (Christiaensen and Todo, 2013; Dorosh and Thurlow, 2014) . ).
Southeast Asia a
South Asia b
Latin America c
Sub-Saharan Africa
With the region's population expected to double over the next 35 years, more than 10 million people could enter the job market each year. A number of African countries appear to be going through a process of "de-industrialization", with increasing percentages of employment in the service sector and informal activities and little growth in output and employment in manufacturing.
Middle East and North Africa f
In general, title and inheritance rights are granted to male family members, although women remain the main users of agricultural land in most communities (AGRA, 2013). In some cases, the importance of agriculture and related businesses in national economies and people's livelihoods may increase; in this case, most rural areas will continue to be dominated by small-scale agriculture.
Small-scale, non-farm enterprises can generate employment if legal and financial constraints are addressed
In low- and middle-income countries, most of the population working outside the agricultural sector is involved in informal household enterprises. Male out-migration and the globalization of agri-food systems are among the key drivers of the feminization of agriculture, which is now underway in many low-income countries.
Poverty, climate change and competition for natural resources are expected to fuel more distress migration
This is particularly the case in high-income countries and in the Middle East and North Africa. Although migrants are slowly changing their destinations – with China, for example, becoming more attractive – high-income countries so far remain net recipients, and South Asia, East Asia and the Pacific are net sources of migrants (Figure 11.2). .
The feminization of agriculture often increases women’s burdens, but also presents them with opportunities
The increase in women's employment in agriculture is evident in a number of Latin American countries, including Chile, Ecuador and Peru. In many Latin American countries, observed changes in women's engagement in agriculture are likely driven by wage employment in agribusinesses producing non-traditional agricultural exports.
Food production is changing along with retail channels
Production contracts are more comprehensive forms of coordination and include detailed production practices, extension services, inputs provided by the contractor, quality and quantity of an item, and a price. There is probably room for diversified forms of distribution, especially in light of new forms of e-commerce focused in the 'last mile' of the distribution system (The Nielsen Company, 2015) and new preferences for ethical and organic food.
Vertically coordinated, capital-intensive value chains challenge small-scale farmers
Vertically coordinated value chains have far-reaching implications for dietary patterns, nutrition and health
Women's knowledge, education, social status, health and nutrition and their control over resources are key factors influencing nutritional outcomes. Many studies show that women's social and economic empowerment – the result of better education or access to a regular income – is one of the most relevant factors contributing to better child health and nutrition (Scaling Up Nutrition, 2016; Cunningham et al., 2015).
Longer food value chains may have a larger ecological footprint
In the same vein, a comparison of 'local' and 'non-local' food in terms of GHG emissions concluded that the least adverse effect on the environment depends on the food product, the type of farm operation, transport, season and the scale of production (Edwards-Jones et al., 2008). However, if technologies that produce high levels of GHG emissions are used to produce food that is transported far from its origin, this will result in relatively higher GHG emissions.
Could indigenous food systems feed the world? No, but they can help
Since the production of fertilizers, herbicides, and pesticides, together with emissions from fossil fuels used on land, account for about 2 percent of total greenhouse gas emissions (HLPE, 2012), increasing the use of these inputs is likely to have a significant impact globally. They are already doing this in the biocosmetic and pharmaceutical industries, which rely heavily on indigenous knowledge of plants and the medicinal properties of forest products.
Indigenous food systems are influencing mainstream food thinking
Reducing food loss and waste would increase the supply of available food and strengthen global food security. Future efforts to address climate change will need to find ways to reduce food loss and waste.
Quantifying trends in food loss and waste is not easy
1 For more on FAO's work on food loss and waste, including definitions, see www.fao.org/. Because food production is responsible for a large proportion of greenhouse gas emissions, reducing food loss and waste helps mitigate climate change.
The causes of food losses and waste vary greatly by region
In the United States of America, food waste at the retail and consumer levels is estimated at over 60 million tons per year. In the European Union, more than 100 million tons of food are wasted every year (European Commission, 2016).
Greater awareness has spurred calls for action
7 The Food Loss and Waste Protocol is coordinated by the World Resources Institute (WRI) and includes the Consumer Goods Forum (CGF), FAO, the European Union-funded project Food Use for Social Innovation by Optimizing Waste Prevention Strategies (FUSIONS), United Nations Environment Program (UNEP), the World Business Council for Sustainable Development (WBCSD) and the British charity WRAP. For more information, visit the FAO Technical Platform on the Measurement and Reduction of Food Loss and Waste website at www.fao.org/platform-food-loss-waste (FAO, 2016c).
Food losses and waste are increasingly an environmental issue
9 The Save Food Initiative is a joint program between FAO and Messe Dusseldorf, a German exhibition company, involving private and public partners aiming to reduce food loss and waste. The first version of the Food Loss and Waste Standard was released in June 2016.7 FAO is working on a Global Food Loss Index indicator, which uses the caloric content of food as a common unit of measure for assessing progress in reducing food loss and waste.8 To address knowledge gaps, raise awareness and reduce food loss and waste through policies, programs and projects, global public-private partnerships such as the Global Food Loss and Reduction Initiative have been launched of Waste ('Save Food' Initiative). .9 The Save Food Initiative is an umbrella program that hosts various global, regional and international initiatives, projects, campaigns and partnerships.
Finding ways of reducing food losses is a delicate balancing act
10 For a detailed discussion of the economic rationale of food losses and waste, see De Gorter, 2014. Many potential options for climate change mitigation and adaptation technologies capable of reducing food losses are available in low-income countries.
Reducing food waste requires changing people’s behaviour
The importance of governance was highlighted with the adoption of the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development, which constitutes a new charter for international cooperation and governance and explicitly aims to 'build effective, accountable and inclusive institutions at all levels' through Sustainable Development Goal 16 (UN, 2015b). Integral to the 2030 Agenda are the Addis Ababa Development Finance Action Agenda (UN, 2015a) and the Paris Agreement on Climate Change (UNFCCC, 2015), along with other international agreements such as the outcomes of the Second International Conference on Nutrition (ICN2).
The new SDG governance framework is shaped by six salient features
Fourth, at the heart of the new agenda is a new, expanded vision of 'policy coherence'. As a first step, FAO should present a simplified but clear and coherent story of its own expected contribution to its member countries' achievement of the new goals.
Good governance’ has given way to more pragmatic, problem-driven decision-making
The organization may need to draw more deeply on its own and others' experiences to ask: how it can become a trusted and effective facilitator and enabler of the ambitious and responsible partnerships that the Agenda for Sustainable Development requires. 4 For a discussion of CFS's positioning in the broader context of global governance, see Vos, 2015.
The landscape for development finance is changing
Relatively strong growth in many low-income countries increased domestic resource mobilization through taxes to $7.7 trillion in 2012 (IMF and World Bank, 2015). In a post-2015 world, traditional ODA and domestic resource mobilization are likely to remain important for financing the development efforts of low-income countries.
Adequate financing is the lynchpin for the success of the 2030 Agenda
Moreover, some of the recent income gains in low-income countries reflect increased global demand for natural resources and remain as volatile as commodity prices. Including this estimate, the incremental investment requirements for low-income countries approach $1.5 trillion per year, or about 2 percent of global GDP.
The public sector is not a major investor, but its role can be catalytic
The creation of employment opportunities in infrastructure development and public procurement of agricultural products generated by smallholder farmers can also help stabilize incomes and allow low-income rural people to acquire productive assets and inputs such as land , equipment, fertilizers and seeds. Policies in areas such as nutrition, food consumption, food price support, natural resource management, infrastructure development and energy may similarly need to be reset (FAO, 2016).
New sources of investment financing are emerging
The need for responsible investments in food and agriculture, which contribute to food security and nutrition, especially for the most vulnerable, and the progressive realization of the right to adequate food, has been widely recognised. Several key conclusions can be drawn from the foregoing overview and analysis of the global trends affecting food security, poverty and hunger and the sustainability of agriculture and food systems.
The 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development
The Addis Ababa Action Agenda
The Paris Agreement on climate change
Climate regulation and carbon sequestration services provided by oceans, inland waters and aquatic ecosystems are also prominently represented in the agreement, underscoring the need to reverse current trends and restore aquatic ecosystems and their productive capacity.
Second International Conference on Nutrition and the Decade of Action on Nutrition
World Conference on Disaster Risk Reduction
UN Summit for Refugees and Migrants and other global developments on migration
United Nations Conference on Housing and Sustainable Urban Development
Sector specific global developments
SAVE FOOD: Global Initiative on Food Loss and Waste Reduction [Website] (Available at www.fao.org/save-food). 41st Session of the Committee on World Food Security [website]. available at www.fao.org/cfs/. cfs-home/activities/rai).
TRENDS AND CHALLENGES
