Over the past year, consumption has increased by 4.7%, with the growth rate exceeding 6% in the first two quarters of this year. In the long term, the adoption of the euro should be a positive development for all European trading partners, including the United States.
Indianapolis
Both in percentage change (15.7%) and absolute change (42,829, or 53% of the total population change), this is where most of the consumption spending is. Addressing this challenge creatively will be an important factor in determining the quality of life of citizens and the productivity of the Indianapolis metropolitan area's economy. The first task in forecasting is always to determine the current status of the economy.
The area's economy must regain at least half of these jobs by the end of the year to match employment at the end of 1997 - that is, no loss in employment can be recorded for 1998. In the 16 years since the end of the rustbelt debacle (1982), the regional economy has continued to perform well relative to the national economy. Between 1979 and 1996, the average annual wage level fell from 103 percent to 87 percent of the average for all metropolitan areas.
Anderson
A modest cooling of the national economy should not be enough to push local auto unemployment significantly upward. We should not expect major changes in the local employment mix or unemployment for the coming year. The changing ownership of local car factories gives us some uncertainty in the near future.
Existing contracts will be honored, but we cannot begin to predict what will happen at the end of those contracts. All in all, the current assessment of our local economy should include a significant recovery from the poor performance of the 1980s. The quality of employment growth will be a key for us in 1999 and into the next century.
Columbus
For Bartholomew County, the number of building permits issued for residential buildings was 240 units for the eight-month period ending in August, compared with 257 for the same period last year. Although the number of units is down, their total cost for the same period increased by 2.7%, from $32.4 million to. As for the local housing market, the number of homes sold for the first three quarters of 1998 was almost identical to the year before: 770, compared to 767 in 1997.
This is despite the fact that the average number of days on market has increased from 121 to 131. Assuming that the national economy will grow moderately (the most likely scenario), this should keep the Columbus area economy at more or less its current level to leave. stands. Conversely, if the global recession contaminates the domestic economy, we believe the Columbus region will be negatively affected, with sales, profitability, incomes and employment all declining.
Richmond–Connersville–
Based on a survey conducted in July each year by the Columbus Economic Development Board, employment at the top five major manufacturing companies (Arvin, Cosco, Cummins, Golden and Rockwell) has continued its downward trend. In addition, four new companies (Crescent Manufacturing, MACtac, Inc., Maumee Industries, Inc., and Hamilton Foundry & Machine Co.) moved to the area, adding a total of $24.6 million in investment and creating 98 jobs new jobs with an average hourly wage of $13.40. Finally, expansions by other existing companies led to total new investment of $418 million and the hiring of 124 new employees at a weighted average hourly wage of $12.90.
If the nation grows above expected levels, we should experience further shortages in local labor markets and beyond.
New Castle
Veramallay
In a recent survey by the Center for Economic Education, 73% of businesses hired new employees in 1998, 84% are affected to varying degrees by current economic conditions, and 40% plan to expand in 1999. Most of the businesses (80% of them) rate the RCNC positively for doing business but are concerned about workforce development and global competition. In Richmond, the number of building permits issued during the first nine months of 1998 totaled 2,188, of which 45 and 20 were residential and commercial properties respectively (see Table 2).
Upscale homes priced over $150,000 are doing much better than last year, although most of the housing activity is in. Local merchants can expect at least a 3% increase in retail sales in the fourth quarter, with the usual lull in subsequent quarters. Given the forecast of a slowdown in the national economy, coupled with a less than robust manufacturing sector, I expect the RCNC to prevail against any recessionary cloud.
Kokomo
Manufacturing posted solid gains of 800 jobs, followed by solid gains of 500 jobs in the construction sector. For the fifth consecutive year, Kokomo's 21,500 workers involved in the production of durable and non-durable goods earned handsome overtime pay. According to Sales and Marketing Management, the median disposable income in the Kokomo metropolitan area rose 5% in 1997 to $37,258.
The magazine also ranked Kokomo's median income third in the state and 84th in the nation. A bright spot in the residential construction sector was the rapid growth of multi-family construction. With an average of $27,472 in retail sales per household, Kokomo ranked fourth in the nation.
Northwest Indiana
In addition to this year's hiring of about 600 workers, Chrysler will add another 400 to its workforce in 1999. It would not be surprising if employment fell by about 600 jobs, even in the absence of continued unrest in world markets for steel. However, the decline in weekly hours may continue leading to modest declines in income generated in these industries in 1999.
The service sector has fueled Northwest Indiana's job growth over the past four years, but that stimulus appears to have run its course. This development will not be repeated in the near future, so the services sector is unlikely to provide the kind of stimulus in the future that it has had over the past few years. With the prospect of continued weakness in the global economy and a potentially slower growing national economy, a recession is more of a possibility for Northwest Indiana, though not yet highly likely.
South Bend/Mishawaka–
A big possibility is the reduction of employment in production by around 600-1000 jobs; it also seems likely that weekly hours will remain unchanged at best. Weekly hours are also likely to decline modestly, resulting in a loss of 3% or more in metals income. After exceptionally strong growth between October 1997 and October 1998 (a gain of 4,200 jobs, of which 3,500 were in business and personal services), last year employment in service activities increased by only 1,300, and in business and personal services by only 400.
It is clear that the rapid increase in service sector employment (nearly 20% over 4.5 years) is a result of the opening of the casino operations at the lake. Employment growth like that of last year seems most likely, with perhaps a thousand new jobs being created. These jobs should be relatively widely spread across the service sector (trade, finance, business and personal services), rather than concentrated in one area.
Elkhart/Goshen
The alarming rise in non-business bankruptcies continues, with the average monthly level now exceeding 340% of the base year level. Housing construction slowed in 1998, and the monthly number of permits declined, although the average value per permit increased. All unadjusted indicators of the residential real estate market have higher monthly averages so far, with the number of listings and the average market price increasing by around 5% compared to 1997.
In the first half of 1998, monthly new vehicle registrations showed very little change compared to 1997. This slowdown in the national economy, along with the recent decline in consumer confidence, is likely to affect the demand for durable goods and the Michigan economy, especially in the next two quarters. The Elkhart-Goshen area, which has the highest percentage of manufacturing employment of any MSA in the US, is likely to feel the effects of the decline in durable goods sales faster and more strongly than the South Bend-Mishawaka area.
Louisville–Jeffersonville–
High levels of consumer confidence, low national unemployment rates and low interest rates over the past year have spurred sales of durable goods, kept local labor markets tight and led to reasonable economic growth. We expect to see rising unemployment rates, albeit still historically low, and much slower employment growth.
New Albany
This was an increase of 19% over the record total of 1997 for the first nine months of the year. In the first nine months of this year, the four metro counties in Indiana reported issuing permits for nearly 1,100 single-family homes (see Figure 3). This was a high level of building activity by historical standards, but about 200 houses less than in the same period last year.
Data for the metro area's three largest counties through the first nine months of the year show a different trend than most of the areas discussed above. Overall, new car and truck sales in the three major counties were about 6% lower than in the first nine months of 1997. These are just a few of the new commercial and industrial projects underway in the area.
Muncie
Two key indicators of manufacturing economic activity, employment and electricity sales, have fallen sharply over the past 12 months, the latter by more than 30% (see Figure 1). Any reasonable prediction must take into account historical trends, but in the case of the Muncie MSA, the trends reversed around 1996. At the end of that period, Muncie actually received a "Blue Chip" award as one of the nation's most successful mid-sized economies.
The pattern is countered by employment performance in the service sector, the largest sector in the province. In reality, the abrupt change in overall employment growth noted in the first line of Table 1 likely overestimates the magnitude of the actual changes that occurred in the Muncie economy around 1996. For this reason, the growth pattern of total employment minus TCPU industries, shown in the last line of Table 1, is perhaps a more representative indicator of the underlying growth of the MSA's economy.
