Athia Syarif Hidayatullah1)*, Nurul fuad2)
1, 2) Universitas Islam Lamongan
Jl. Veteran No.53A, Jetis, Kec. Lamongan, Kabupaten Lamongan, Jawa Timur 62211 e-mail: [email protected]1)*, [email protected]2)
*e-mail correspondence : [email protected].
ABSTRACT
Eggs are one of the livestock products that help people to get adequate nutrition. In Indonesia, chicken eggs are in great demand, besides being easy to obtain and the price is affordable, Omega 3 chicken eggs are one of the chicken eggs that have very many benefits. However, chicken eggs themselves become a rare staple because the yield of chicken eggs is too little. The main purpose of this application was to forecast or predict the yield of chicken eggs accurately so that it became one of the options for egg supply in the future. Making the application used the Double Moving Average method as a forecasting method.
The Double Moving Average was used as an analysis of data on the yield of chicken eggs Omega 3 with the right calculation produced an accurate forecast. Implementation of the application is intended for users starting from filling in data, filling in forecasting movements, and additional features such as recaps. The results of the application are explained from the forecasting results which have a high level of accuracy and a small error rate using the Double Moving Average method.
Keywords : Consumption, Chicken Egg Omega 3, Double Moving Average., Forecasting.
I. INTRODUTION
ggs are one source of protein that has a fairly high protein content. In Indonesia, there are various types of eggs that are easy to find and made into various dishes such as duck eggs, quail eggs, fish eggs and chicken eggs. Chicken eggs themselves are divided into several types, such as domestic chicken eggs, free-range chicken eggs, Omega 3 chicken eggs, kate chicken eggs, vegetarian chicken eggs and conventional chicken eggs [1]. Pak Darmo is a private entrepreneur in Lamongan Regency, whose address is in Rejosari Hamlet, Sugio Lamongan District. On Pak Darmo's farm there are approximately 2000 chickens which produce 40kg-60kg of chicken eggs per day and produce around 1000kg-1400kg in a month. From the results of observations and interviews conducted at Pak Darmo's farm, there are still several problems, including the difficulty of predicting crop yields which change over time, making it difficult to determine the supply of Omega 3 eggs. The existence of information technology in this era will make it easier to do this. processing data effectively and efficiently and producing the required information quickly and accurately.
Prediction or forecasting is a calculation method for predicting or estimating events in the future by using information or data obtained from the past so as to minimize the level of error in making predictions [2] Double Moving Average is an average second moving average of results. The results of the Single Moving Average are used to calculate the Double Moving Average. Double Moving Average is a forecasting method with a certain time period pattern (trend pattern) where the method for calculating the Double Moving Average is by calculating one group of moving averages, then the second group is calculated as the result of the calculation of group one [3].
After forecasting, an evaluation is carried out using the calculation of fixed values in the forecasting method using MAPE (Mean Absolute Error) and MSE (Mean Square Error) which predicts sales in the following months. From the results of these methods the level of accuracy will be compared, the one with the smallest value will be used [4]. After getting the result of the calculation, the negative value will be converted into a positive value. After that, look for the MSE value by subtracting the actual data request value from the forecast data, then the results are squared and added together, then divided by the amount of data [5]. To determine the level of error accuracy, the MAD calculation is carried out, which is the average absolute error in a calculation by looking at the size or size of the forecast results [6].
A website is a collection of all web page contents that have various functions and display information in forms such as text, sound and images. A website is a collection of various kinds of information media pages in a domain that can be accessed at any time and by anyone using the internet network [7]. At the web creation stage, researchers used Laravel, a framework which is an MVP-based website development that uses the PHP programming language and is designed to improve software performance, reduce maintenance and development costs, and save a lot of
IMPLEMENTATION OF DOUBLE MOVING AVERAGE METHOD IN PREDICTION OF OMEGA 3 CHICKEN EGG HARVEST RESULT of PAK
DARMO WEB-BASED
E
time [8][9]. To facilitate storage and retrieval of data using a database. The database is a collection of some data that is used once or continuously in digital form [10].
Looking at the problems above, the author provides input on utilizing technology to predict the yield of Omega 3 chicken eggs using the Double Moving Average (DMA) method, a prediction method with predetermined data and weights [11]. The aim of this research is to determine the benefits obtained from implementing the Double Moving Average method in helping chicken egg farmers in predicting chicken egg harvests.
II. RESEARCHMETHODOLOGY A. Observation
Research begins with the data collection process. Observations, documentation and interviews were used to collect main data. In addition, the authors analyzed the collected data. In this analysis the author identifies problems and finds solutions, and applies them in a forecasting system to manage data. After collecting the previous data, the author applies it to the Double Moving Average forecasting system that has been created on the website. The purpose of this use is to find out the results of the forecasting carried out. After knowing the results of the forecasting carried out by the website, it can be used to manage the data and determine the yield pattern for Omega 3 chicken eggs.
B. Preparing Data
Data collected by adding up the harvest every month. At this stage, each harvest data is compiled according to month and year, if there is previous data it would be better, to reduce the error rate of a forecasting program.
C. Double Moving Average 1. Moving Average
๐ =๐๐ก+ ๐๐กโ1+ ๐๐กโ2
๐
(1)
Information :
M : Forecast for a specific period Yt+Yt-1+Yt-2 : Total data from previous periods n : Total moving periods
2. Double Moving Average
๐๐ก, =๐๐ก+ ๐๐กโ1+ ๐๐กโ2 ๐
(2)
Information :
Mt : Moving average for period t
Mtโ : Double moving average for period t 3. Coefficient a & b
๐๐ก = 2๐๐กโ ๐๐ก, ๐๐ก = 2
๐ โ 1(๐๐กโ ๐๐ก,)
(3)
Information :
at : Value of a at time t bt : Value of b at time t 4. Forecast
๐น๐ก+1= ๐๐ก+ ๐๐ก (4)
Information :
Ft : Forecast for the next period
D. MAPE
๐๐ด๐๐ธ =
โ |(๐ด๐กโ ๐น๐ก
๐ด๐ก ) 100|
๐๐ก=1
๐
(5)
Information :
At : Actual demand value at time t Ft : Forecasted value at time t n : Data size
E. MSE
๐๐๐ธ =โ๐๐กโ1(๐ด๐ก โ ๐น๐ก)2 ๐
(6)
Information : At : Actual demand value Ft : Forecasted value n : Number of data points F. MAD
๐๐ด๐ท =[๐ด๐ก โ ๐น๐ก]
๐
(7)
Information : At : Actual demand value
Ft : Result of the forecasting value n : Number of data points
III. RESULTANDDISCUSSION A. Usecase Diagram System
The Use Case Diagram explains that the system admin can manage and utilize the system created. This diagram can also describe what the system does.
Figure 1. Use case diagram for the website
At this stage the examiner will test the results of forecasting calculations using manual and web methods.
B. Harvest Data
The following is data on the harvest of omega 3 chicken eggs from January to December in 2022.
Table 1. Data Table
Tahun Bulan Jumlah (kg)
2022 Januari 1321
2022 Februari 1221
2022 Maret 1114
2022 April 1335
2022 Mei 1228
2022 Juni 1111
2022 Juli 1104
2022 Agustus 1004
2022 September 1344
2022 Oktober 1443
2022 November 1049
2022 Desember 1420
C. At this stage, the evaluator tests the results of the manual calculation predictions Table 2. Data Table with Alpha and Beta Values.
Tahun Bulan Jumlah (kg)
SMA (2)
DMA (2)
Alfa Beta
2022 Januari 1321 0,00 00,0 00,0 00,0
2022 Februari 1221 1271, 00,0 00,0 00,0 2022 Maret 1114 1167,5 1219,2 1115,7 -103,5
2022 April 1335 1124,5 1196 1253 57
2022 Mei 1228 1281,5 1253 1310 57
2022 Juni 1111 1169,5 1225,5 1113,5 -112 2022 Juli 1104 1107,5 1138,5 1076,5 -62 2022 Agustus 1004 1054 1080,7 1027,2 -53,5 2022 September 1344 1174 1114 1234 120 2022 Oktober 1443 1393,5 1283,7 1503,2 219,5 2022 November 1049 1246,5 1319,7 1172,2 -147,5 2022 Desember 1420 1234,5 1240,2 1228,7 -11,5
In the table above, the Alpha and Beta values are known, then calculate the accuracy of the predictions.
Table 3. Accuracy Predicted Value
Prediksi Error [Error] Error ^ 2 Error %
00,0 00,0 00,0 00,0 00,0
00,0 00,0 00,0 00,0 00,0
00,0 00,0 00,0 00,0 00,0
1012,2 322,7 322,7 104167,5 24,17
1310 -82,0 82 6724 6,67
1367 -256,0 256 65536 23,04
1001,5 102,5 102,5 10506,2 9,28
1014,5 -10,5 10,5 110,2 1,04
973,75 370,2 370,2 137085 27,54
1354 89,0 89 7921 6,16
1722,7 637,7 637,7 453939 64,2
1024,7 395,2 395,2 156222,5 27,8
Permalan 104690,1 21,1
In the figure it is known that the manual calculation accuracy value is 21.1%.
D. Website Trial Results
Figure 2. Website Dashboard Page Display.
Figure 3. Web Accuracy Test Results.
After the tester has tested the system and the accuracy value, it can be concluded that the system is working as desired and there are no problems. In testing, the accuracy value of the prediction results on the web corresponds to or is the same as the calculation results 21.1%.
IV. CONCLUSION
From the research carried out, it can be concluded that this application was created with the aim of analyzing the harvest of Omega 3 chicken eggs using the Double Moving Average method. This website is designed to help Pak Darmo's farm owner understand the yield patterns of Omega 3 chicken eggs and plan a more effective egg supply. Pak Darmo's farm currently uses manual data collection. Therefore, I took the initiative to introduce a new breakthrough by creating a forecasting system using the Double Moving Average method. The purpose of this system is so that Pak Darmo's farm can remain competitive based on the analysis in the Suigo District that I got.
A forecasting system design using the Double Moving Average method has been created by identifying and preparing harvest data that will be used in forecasting to find the estimated harvest results for the next month. The implementation of the Double Moving Average Method has been successfully carried out through the collection and transformation of harvest data, all of which contribute to estimating the yield of chicken eggs on Pak Darmo's farm.
REFERENCES
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